NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Arthur Hill2 · 2012-03-20T09:56:32+00:00

Eric Fox7 said: @ Arthur Hill2 Do you really think the Blazers are going to bottom out, even if they're trailing by two or three wins for a playoff spot? I hig…

placidranger19 Member

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joined Mar 2012

#41 · Mar 22, 2012

silentskipper3 said:Why on earth are the oddsmakers favoring the Clippers today??
I need a real breakdown here, they're playing away at the New Orleans Pelicans

The odds on the Clippers being that high is absolutely ridiculous. Honestly, I think Chris Paul and his crew are going to walk in there and eat them for breakfast.

Arthur Hill2 MemberOP

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#42 · Mar 22, 2012

The spread is set this way because the Clippers are staring down their third game in just three nights, and let’s be real—these weren't exactly walks in the park. They had to deal with an away game against the Indiana Pacers followed by a trip to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, losing both by double digits. They've played five games in the last week alone. Still, my take remains the same: New Orleans Pelicans should come out on top here.

ruggedgull32 Active Member

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joined Jan 2012

#43 · Mar 22, 2012

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I don't see Marcus Kaman hitting 17 points today, honestly.

...yeah, true...

Lawrence Castillo76 Newcomer

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#44 · Mar 22, 2012

Considering how the Clippers have been playing over the last two weeks and the sheer number of games they've put up, the odds are honestly looking incredible

Edward Gonzalez36 Member

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joined Mar 2012

#45 · Mar 22, 2012

At first glance, I think setting the Milwaukee Bucks over/under at 102.5 is way too high. Honestly, it’s probably just because they’ve been playing so well lately. They’re facing the Boston Celtics, who have a killer defense, so I don't see Milwaukee cracking the 100 mark easily.
Because of that, I’m leaning toward Monta Ellis staying under 19 points. Ever since he joined the squad, he hasn't even cleared 18. I doubt he’ll break through tonight against a defensive powerhouse like Boston.

What are your thoughts on the Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies game?
I’d personally take the away team to win outright, but I'm not feeling entirely confident about it.

Lawrence Castillo76 Newcomer

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#46 · Mar 22, 2012

I wouldn't mind watching Milwaukee play, even if it's just a battle for playoff positioning. You can expect a gritty game, but Bucks have totally flipped their philosophy this season—they’re basically playing with four forwards at all times (with Gooden at the five, spinning and staying quick) and running an incredibly fast transition game. It'll be super interesting to see how those old guys on the Celtics try to keep up with that pace.

Edward Gonzalez36 Member

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joined Mar 2012

#47 · Mar 22, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 said:The NBA results have been completely unpredictable lately, and I can never seem to get on the right side of a Kobe Bryant bet.

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The scores over the last ten days have been straight-up brutal. I’m still reeling from today's mess, so I'll be taking a few days off to recover—both my bank account and my sanity. 🤷

Christian Ruiz Member

28 messages
joined Mar 2012

#48 · Mar 22, 2012

[Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors] Luis Scola over 16.5#

First off, hello everyone! I hope my (un)certain knowledge might be of some help to a few of you out there.

So, looking at Luis Scola over 16 points. On paper, it seems like a reasonable margin given his season average of 15.7, but today's matchup actually makes this bet look quite attractive. After all the drama and speculation surrounding trade rumors, Scola announced he’s genuinely happy to be staying put with the Houston Rockets. Beyond just being settled and happy to stay in Texas, he's been putting up solid numbers lately—averaging 18.4 points over his last five games. What really backs this bet up, looking at the Rockets' injury report, is the absence of both Kyle Lowry and Gerald Martin. Honestly, even if this wasn't a matchup against the Warriors, it would be worth a shot. While the line was bumped up because those two are out, it doesn't hurt Scola's outlook; if anything, it helps. He simply knows how to step up as a leader when the team needs him most. Plus, they're facing a Warriors squad that has also been busy with trades. They seem hungry for change and first-round picks, but they're dealing with serious injury issues too. They are essentially playing without a real frontline since Andris Biedrins is sidelined and Udoha was traded. They brought up Tyler from the D-League, who actually earned his first career start last game. Because they're lacking size, Tyler and Lee are rotating at center, while McGuire has been moved from small forward to power forward to cover alongside Lee. So, with all that said, the whole group is basically playing with "meh" defense.😁 Last season, Scola really took advantage of them, averaging 25.3 points in the three games they played against them. This season, in their only meeting, Scola put up 14 points, though he only grabbed 6 rebounds, which is pretty low. When you weigh everything up, I think this margin is short by at least two points given the circumstances.

Arthur Hill2 MemberOP

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#49 · Mar 22, 2012

Looking ahead to tonight, my money is on Chris Paul in his matchup against Monta Ellis. There’s always a bit of extra weight when Paul returns to face his former squad, you know? Plus, Ellis is playing alongside Monta Ellis, who is more than capable of handling plenty of the ball himself. The odds look solid here; at +200, I think it's definitely worth a shot.

I'm with Marcus Kaman under. Seventeen points is just too high a bar for him to clear.

Eric Fox7 Regular

320 messages
joined Jul 2012

#50 · Mar 22, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:I'm with you on Kaman under—17 is a pretty high bar for him to clear.

I have to disagree here 🙂

Handsome has actually cleared this line three times in his last four games—and honestly, he's done it four times in the last six. Given that the Clippers' defense has been looking a bit shaky lately, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he drops another 20+ 🤷

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

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#51 · Mar 22, 2012

Jennings under 18.5

So, Brandon Jennings—the guy running the show for Milwaukee—is about to run headfirst into a defensive wall, and I’m talking about Boston. These guys are currently sitting pretty with what feels like the toughest perimeter defense in the league when you look at how they shut down point guards, especially with that 37.9% shooting percentage they force on opponents. Now, Brandon recently got a new partner in crime on the backcourt via trade, Monta Ellis, who was basically the engine behind the Warriors and can easily drop +20 PPG. This means Milwaukee just added another heavy hitter who needs the rock. Honestly, the Bucks have such a deep rotation right now that anyone can step up and grab 15 shots if they need to—we're looking at Ilysov, Gooden, Dunleavy, Delfino, and of course, the newcomer Ellis. Because of that, Jennings doesn't really need to force things; he can just focus on being a pure facilitator since there are plenty of shooters ready to do the dirty work. Since Ellis joined the mix, Jennings hasn't even touched that 18.5 mark, putting up 17, 14, and 15 points in his last three outings. Plus, Boston plays pick-and-roll defense like absolute pros, specifically targeting the ball handler, which is exactly where Jennings usually looks to create his look. He’s been absolutely stifled against the Celtics lately, scoring only 6 and 8 points in their last two matchups, and looking back at his eight games facing Rondo, he only cleared the 18.5 line twice (hitting 23 and 19). Even though he's playing at home, I really think taking the under is the move here because that Boston defense is just too much of a factor to ignore. Over at Pinnacle, the line is set at 17.5 with the under sitting at 1.68, so when you crunch those numbers, it feels like a solid bit of value that I just have to take. ☕

Lawrence Castillo76 Newcomer

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#52 · Mar 22, 2012

I'm also leaning toward the under. Still torn between Ellis and Jennings, but I ended up grabbing Ellis over 20.5. Really hoping I don't mess this one up.

Lawrence Castillo76 Newcomer

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#53 · Mar 22, 2012

Rudy Fernandez needs lower back surgery and is likely out for the rest of the regular season. Honestly, some other guys—maybe the Russians or the French—could step up and make their mark in London instead.

stormyseal9 Member

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#54 · Mar 22, 2012

Alright, let me see if I can get a win here after taking a day off to clear my head

Aldridge under 21.5 @ 1.85
-Look, after he totally screwed me over recently, I started avoiding him like the plague, but I decided to take a shot today because honestly? His form is an absolute disaster. In his last 15 games, he only cleared 22 points three times—hitting 22, 22, and 30—so I’m expecting him to struggle again tonight, especially since his shooting has been falling apart lately.
Scola over 16.5 @ 1.85
-Like someone already pointed out, as long as Lowry and Martin aren't in the mix, you really have to expect Scola to go over because, frankly, I don't see anyone else stepping up to fill that void. Dragic flashes brilliance every other night, sure, but for anything more than just a spark, Scola is absolutely essential.
Wall over 18.5 @ 1.85
-Last night was exactly what I feared; he played a bit worse, which is basically his standard routine whenever he's playing on the road, right? But when he's playing on his home court, man, that's a whole different story! He averages nearly 20 shots a game and regularly clears the 20-point mark, so I'm banking on him not having a bad night.
Evans under 17.5 @ 1.85
-He's finally back after missing a few games due to that injury, and I seriously doubt they're going to push him too hard right away. Plus, Thornton is looking absolutely lethal right now, and even Cousins is playing better and better, so I don't see him getting many shots tonight.
Pierce over 18.5 @ 1.85
-In their last two matchups, he's been averaging about 23.5 points while shooting 60%, which is insane. If they want to snap Milwaukee's winning streak, they're gonna need him to be at his absolute best. Sure, he's getting older and his performance can swing wildly from night to night, but since I'm pulling for Boston, I'm hoping he brings the heat.
Ellis over 19.5 @ 1.85
-He's adjusted to the new squad incredibly well, putting up 18 and 14 points in his last two outings. And when you look at how he handles Boston? He's been tearing them apart, averaging a massive 27.4 points over the last five games. In my book, he's the main man for the Bucks, with all due respect to Jennings.
Paul over 18.5 @ 1.85
-He's facing his old team for the first time, and you know he's going to be itching to prove something and show them what they're missing. LAC has hit a massive slump lately, and if they want any chance of climbing back to the top, they desperately need him to put up big numbers.

6/7 system, SS, good luck everyone! 😉>

Nicholas Chase34 Newcomer

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#55 · Mar 23, 2012

Jennings hit exactly 19 points 🙂

It's just not happening, man 😠

Kenneth Bailey Member

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#56 · Mar 23, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 said:Jennings hit exactly 19 points 🙂

Just can't happen... 😠

Man, this is just brutal. Seriously! He went totally cold in the 3rd, kept missing in the 4th, then suddenly just caught fire. Scored 8 points in like a minute and 34 seconds... 🙄 It's insane. Totally killed my parlay for 205 miles (around $433). I was just waiting on Marc Gasol to stay under 15.5. Now I'm wishing he'd go over just to make things easier. I had Jennings at 17.5. Looks like you got burned by the prop...🙂

Eric Fox7 Regular

320 messages
joined Jul 2012

#57 · Mar 23, 2012

Eric Fox7 said:I have to disagree. 🙂

Handsome has cleared this line three times in his last four outings—actually, looking back, he’s done it four times in his last six games. Given that the Clippers' defense has been looking pretty shaky lately, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he drops another 20+ on them. 🤷

Kaman under 20 ☕

Arthur Hill2 MemberOP

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#58 · Mar 23, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:Looking ahead to tonight’s matchup, I find myself most drawn to the Paul vs. Ellis dynamic. There is a certain narrative weight to seeing Paul returning to his former club, which always adds an extra layer of intensity to these games. On the other side, Ellis is playing alongside Jennings, a player who isn't afraid to command a heavy usage rate and handle plenty of the ball himself. Given how the pieces fit together, the odds look quite attractive. Taking the over 2 seems like a solid play worth considering.

I agree with the assessment that Kaman under is the move here; 17 is simply too high a number for him to hit.

Eric Fox7 said:I have to disagree. 🙂

Handsome has cleared this line three times in his last four games—actually, he’s done it four times in his last six. Given that the Clippers haven't been showing much grit on the defensive end lately, there is a very real possibility we see him drop another 20+ points. 🤷

He finished with under 20.

Paul at 16, Ellis at 13. Honestly, what an incredible matchup to witness.

Eric Fox7 Regular

320 messages
joined Jul 2012

#59 · Mar 23, 2012

Arthur Hill2 said:He put up less than 20

🤣

Kupec really outclassed them when it came to pure veteran experience ☕

Christian Ruiz Member

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joined Mar 2012

#60 · Mar 23, 2012

Christian Ruiz said:[Houston-Golden State] Luis Scola over 16.5#

First off, hello everyone! I hope my (un)certain insights might be of some help to you all as I share them here.

So, looking at Luis Scola over 16 points—it seems like a reasonable margin given his season average is 15.7, but today’s matchup actually favors this bet quite nicely. After all the noise and speculation surrounding potential trades, Scola announced he's genuinely happy to be staying right here in Houston. Beyond just being settled and not wanting to uproot his life from Texas, his performance on the court has been solid; he's averaged 18.4 points over his last five games. What really helps this bet, looking at the Rockets' injury report, is definitely the absence of Lowry and Martin. Even if the matchup against the Warriors isn't ideal, I still think this is worth a shot. While the line was pushed up because those two are out, it doesn't hurt Scola's numbers—if anything, it helps. Scola simply knows how to step up as a leader when the situation calls for it. On top of that, they're facing a team that has also been very active with trades; besides appearing hungry for changes and first-round picks, they are dealing with serious injury issues. They are practically playing without a real frontcourt since Biedrins is injured and Udoha was traded, and they've brought up Tyler from the G-League, who just made his first career start last game. Because they are thin on height, Tyler and Lee are rotating at center, while McGuire has moved from small forward to power forward to cover alongside Lee. And with all that, they're basically playing with, let's say, subpar defense.😁 Last season, Scola served them well, averaging 25.3 points in the three games they played against them. This season, in their only meeting, Scola put up 14 points but only grabbed 6 rebounds, which is honestly pretty low. But weighing everything together, I think this margin is only about two baskets away from being hit, considering the circumstances.

L.Scola #18 pts

NBA Betting: Vol. 2

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