NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

It’s such a shame. Carlos Boozer keeps getting stuck in foul trouble, and then he manages to scrape together about 15 points before hitting a wall. If it weren't for those fouls, man, he would have been unstoppable. 🙂

The public bet Rose hit. 😍

I’m honestly done. For three days straight, my last few parlays have just completely fallen apart.
Minnesota staying under 97🙂

Whenever it’s Phoenix vs Memphis in Memphis, I lose.
Whenever it’s Phoenix vs Minnesota and I rely on the Phoenix defense, I lose.

Lakers vs Warriors isn't hitting the 197.5 mark either.

Seriously, this is getting ridiculous at this point.

Rose and Wall had a great run
thanks play 👍

how many did Maggette score?

Just two left. That Utah and Detroit over was a real nail-biter, finishing with only 35 seconds on the clock. Now, we just have the Clippers to go.

So everything from the playoffs is officially in the books, huge thanks to the king 🙏🙏👍

Thanks @Play, the cash is already in my pocket

I haven't seen any posts from ramos_4 yet! If you have something they wrote that needs a complete overhaul, just toss it my way and I'll get to work turning it into something that sounds like a real person living in the States. kaže:
So, everything from Nicholas Chase34 just went down, thanks a million, legend! 🙏🙏👍

wiredcanyon39 said:Thanks @Nicholas Chase34, that money is officially in the bag!

🙂 🙂

Rough call last night with the Iliad play, and then this matchup popped up on my radar this morning:

(17.5)Cleveland - Jamison A.

I’ve got this one on my local tracker, but honestly, the juice feels way too high for an over bet.
The guy is absolutely cooking right now, and these lines missed his actual pace by at least 3 or 4 buckets...🤷

ruggedgull32 said:My read on the Iliad game went south last night, but check out this matchup I spotted this morning:

(17.5)Cleveland - Jamison A.

I’m seeing this line at my local sportsbook, and honestly, I think it might be a massive play for the over.
The guy is playing out of his mind right now, and those lines feel way too low—like they missed the mark by at least 3 or 4 buckets...🤷

Man, if we had sportsbooks over here offering lines like 21.5, we'd be set.

wiredcanyon39 said:Man, I wish we had betting sites like this over here.

The lines here are usually 19, 20, or 21, but this one's sitting at 17.
They rarely move the line around either. If they see everyone hammering a specific spread, they just shave a bit off the odds, but it’s never a massive shift...

Indiana - Portland ki1 1,55
6/10
Man, Portland has been absolute trash on the road this season—they're sitting at a measly 6-14. Honestly, most of those wins they actually managed to scrape together were back at the start of the year when things were looking decent, but lately? They’ve been sliding further and further away from the Playoffs. Meanwhile, Indiana seems pretty settled right around that 5th spot in the East, and I wouldn't be surprised if they just coasted to finish there. They’re tough at home, too, rocking an 11-5 record against teams way better than this Portland squad, so I’m feeling pretty good about an Indiana win tonight.

Cleveland - Toronto ki1 1,50
5/10
The Cleveland Cavaliers are really starting to close the gap on the New York Knicks and the Milwaukee Bucks. With Kyrie Irving playing out of his mind lately, every single game feels massive if they want any shot at a Playoff seed. On the other side, Toronto just can't seem to get anything done on the road, and since Jose Calderon's situation is still kind of up in the air, I'm leaning toward Kyrie just taking over and shining tonight.

Man, Ilyasova really knocked me sideways last night; he cleared two average paychecks for me, and I actually had him at over 13.5
I honestly don't know what's going on with the sportsbooks here in the States, but there is such a massive discrepancy in the margins compared to what I'm used to seeing
For instance, when I was looking at the Play games last night—which didn't have nearly as much action—the margins back home would have been as much as 5 points lower than what I'm seeing now
I also tried running a little combo bet involving Ilyasova, taking the over 13.5 and the under 20.5, but I ended up just walking away with a push

Alexander Lewis91 said:Ilyasova absolutely wrecked me last night, hitting two decent payouts. I had him over 13.5
I don't know what's up with the sportsbooks here in the States, but the margins are all over the place.
For example, when I was watching the Play games last night, the lines over here were like 5 points lower than they are back home.
I even threw a parlay on Ilyasova—over 13.5 and under 20.5—but ended up just getting my money back at the end.

The only reason I wasn't following the Play action was because of that low line on Maggette. Over there it’s 22, but here it's sitting at 18...
I followed everything else, but Ilyasova just crawled into my head and ended up killing my whole night...🙂

It honestly feels like they’re just setting these lines based on seasonal averages without giving a single thought to current form. I noticed the exact same thing happening with Jamison earlier. Anyway, fingers crossed that we get a bit more luck on our side tonight!

The Lottery odds usually tighten up during the last 2-3 days.
There’s a huge selection of alternative players available, and the lines are actually incredible.
For instance, you can find Nelson at 9.5.🤣
Yesterday, Allen was sitting 2 points higher than what you'd see at DraftKings. Plus, there's a massive list of players that aren't even listed on DraftKings.

p.s. Just waiting on the Playoffs🙂 🤣

Washington Wizards under 93.5 points or the game goes under 198.5 Favorite
The Dallas Mavericks are coming in as favorites by 10 or more, and honestly, looking at the numbers, it makes sense since they usually hold opponents to about 78 points while putting up an average of 95.7 PPG themselves. Generally speaking, Dallas runs one of the sturdier defenses in the league, especially when they're rocking the home jersey—they’re ranked #5 overall, giving up just 90.8 PPG. Now, even though the Washington Wizards have been heating up lately, we really have to account for the fact that most of those high-scoring bursts happened at home. The Wizards aren't exactly known for being offensive juggernauts when they're playing back-to-back games, so I don't see them blowing past this margin tonight.

Andrew Bynum under 18.5 Favorite
I feel like this line is Andrew Bynum under 18.5 favorite slightly overinflated given his recent averages; this number is really just riding the wave of his recent hot streak, but you have to remember that some teams are just struggling significantly with interior defense. The Memphis Grizzlies are right up there with the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers as one of the top three defenses against centers. Plus, Andrew Bynum hasn't once cleared this specific mark in their head-to-head matchups, and since he's playing on the road tonight, I’m expecting him to stay under.

Ben Wallace under 13.5 Lottery
He’s definitely a home-court player, since his scoring average is nearly double what it is when he’s traveling. His whole offensive rhythm relies heavily on transition plays, but the Indiana Pacers are absolute specialists at shutting that down (ranking #3 in the league), so in my book, he stays under.

Kobe Bryant under 29.5 Lottery
although Kobe Bryant loves to force things sometimes, my gut tells me he’s going to land just under that 30-point mark. That said, the Memphis Grizzlies have Tony Allen in the lineup this year, so it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Kobe Bryant. Memphis boasts one of the best isolation defenses out there, meaning Kobe Bryant only clears this line if he starts forcing shots until he’s completely exhausted, and I seriously doubt he’ll go on such a reckless tear while playing away from home—though, let's be real, you can never truly predict him. 🤣

Chris Evans over 16.5 Favorite
We can say the same thing about Chris Evans regarding his home vs. away splits, as his production is noticeably better in front of his own fans. When his team breaks the 100-point barrier, Chris Evans tends to average about 20.6 points, which could very well happen tonight since the Sacramento Kings are set at a total of 104.5. Looking back at the two times they faced the Golden State Warriors this season, he dropped 26 and 22 points respectively, so the momentum is definitely on his side. ☕

Honestly, I’m done. The Phoenix Suns are absolutely dead.

Nothing changes, honestly. I'm just sticking with the same old combo—taking the Kobe Bryant under and the Washington Wizards

Last night was pure madness. Stoudemire dropped 13 in the third quarter alone. It was like Michael Jordan possessed him, honestly unbelievable. Minnesota put up 127 points, with a total of 251 in the game. Defensive effort was non-existent.

Today looks like another ridiculous day for the NBA.


Indiana - Portland

Indiana is looking solid at home with an 11-5 record. Personally, I think Portland might cover a 5-point spread, especially since they aren't exactly a powerhouse on the road at 6-14. Even though Portland has been hitting the 100-point mark in their last 10 games, Indiana's defense is tight—they've been giving up an average of just 91.2 points lately. Since Portland hasn't proven they can actually play well on the road, I'm leaning toward Indiana handling them easily.

my pick: Indiana -4.5

Dallas - Washington

Dallas had a nightmare of a road trip, going 0-3. I think they’ll flip the script today playing at home, where they usually hold their own and keep scores low. I don't see Washington scoring much, so this feels like an under to me.

my pick: under 198.5


Kobe Bryant

The line for him is set at 29.5 points today, which is massive. Kobe Bryant regularly clears that bar, but it might be time for him to go under. Not much else to say when you're talking about someone who can drop 60 points without breaking a sweat.

my pick: Kobe under 29.5

I'd also throw some money on John Wall over. What do you guys think? Can the Dallas defense actually stop him from hitting 19 points? Looking at the stats, Dallas's perimeter defense isn't exactly elite.

here is my main ticket for today

Granger over 18.5 at 1.85
-man, he’s been hovering right on the edge lately, averaging about 18.1 points, and honestly? Portland is exactly the kind of squad he feasts on. He’s been absolutely tearing it up against them, dropping 27.7 points over his last six matchups, so why wouldn't we ride that wave?
Dwyane Wade over 23.5 at 1.85
-look, after a couple of rough outings, the guy is finally finding his rhythm again. He’s getting around 20 shots off per game and shooting a solid 55%, so this over looks juicy as hell to me. I mean, just look back 15 days—he dropped 27 points easy!
Pau Gasol over 15.5 at 1.85
-I’m feeling an over here because, let's be real, Andrew Bynum is probably going to have one of those off nights since Memphis just hasn't been clicking for him at all (averaging a measly 8.5 points through 17 games)
John Wall under 18.5 at 1.85
-same story as last time, seriously. This guy just doesn't have that same punch when he's playing on the road compared to when he's at home. Plus, I'm betting Dallas is going to lock things down and hold them to around 85 points. He takes about 12 shots and usually settles for 14 points on the road, so the math is there.
Batum over 13.5 at 1.85
-this line is just artificially low because of those recent bad games. Sure, he went under in his last three, but if you look at his last ten, he’s sitting at an average of 16.2. Honestly? I'm just playing this on pure gut feeling because I hit him so consistently.
Gay under 19.5 at 1.85
-usually, I'd be riding the over with this guy, but man, did he look totally out of it lately? It felt like he had a concussion or something, so I don't trust him to deliver a big performance, especially with Bynum and Pau out there too.
Evans over 17.5 at 1.85
-it's a local rivalry game, high stakes, and he's already cleared 20 points in both meetings this season (dropping 22 and 26 respectively) while eating up 20+ shots. He wants this ball!

6/7 system, standard stake

it's international, but hey, it's just as good as anything else🤷

Johnson under 19.5 at 1.85
-this line is way too high. The guy’s been dealing with injuries and he's nowhere near the level he was at the start of the season. I'm expecting him to top out at maybe 15 points max.
Shawn Marion over 11.5 at 1.85
-he hits this mark so often at home. I mean, if he can't score more than this against the Washington Wizards, then who can? Seriously, who?
Kobe Bryant under 29.5 at 1.85
Nelson over 9.5 at 1.85
198.5/Dallas-Washington under
LeBron James over 27.5 at 1.85
Wallace under 13.5 at 1.85
Lawson under 15.5 at 1.85
203.5/OKC-Houston under 1.85 HL

8/9 system, small stake