NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

A few interesting stats for you:

This season, the average comeback rate sits at 24.6%—meaning roughly one out of every four games sees the halftime leader end up losing the matchup.

Looking at second-half comebacks specifically, the Golden State Warriors have been part of this trend in half of their games—17 out of 34, to be exact—where they either erase a deficit or get erased in those final 24 minutes.

The data comes from this article: http://nbaovertime.com/statisticke-a...rnetsi-gube-40

It’s worth a read if you want to see which teams are most prone to these kinds of swings. 😉

Edward Gonzalez36 said:
Kobe Bryant

The line for him today is sitting at 29.5 points, which honestly feels pretty massive. I mean, Kobe Bryant usually clears that kind of number without breaking a sweat, but maybe today's the day he stays under—it'd be about time for a breather. It’s hard to make a definitive call when you're talking about someone who could drop 60 points just because he felt like it one night, you know?

My pick: Kobe Bryant under 29.5

🤣 Man, what an analysis for Kobe Bryant; you almost convinced me to take the under myself! 🤔

Try giving us some actual logic behind the play 🤷 because right now it just looks like you grabbed some random picks from an unknown site and passed them to me. 🤷

☕

Today, I’m looking at Miami at 1.65. The Orlando Magic have already proven they can capitalize on any open three-pointer that comes their way, so I expect them to walk away with another easy win tonight. 🤷

The only potential downside is that they have a "bigger" matchup against the Chicago Bulls tomorrow, which might cause some mental distraction, but I wouldn't count on it—these guys are professionals.

And even if they happen to lose, super 🥳

Nicholas Chase34 said:🤣 What kind of analysis is that for Kobe Bryant? You actually convinced me to take him under. 🤔

☕

Haha, I know. It’s a total reach, honestly. I think Kobe Bryant is going to end up under that line because my limit is just too high.

Kevin Martin under 16.5 points @unknown

I suppose there are a few reasons why this looks like a solid play to me:

- Statistically speaking, Martin seems to be much more effective playing at home, where he averages about 22.2 points, whereas his production drops off significantly on the road to just 12.4 points.
- He’s been struggling lately, which I suspect is due to a lingering shoulder injury. Over his last four away games, his scoring has dwindled to 11, 7, 5, and 3 points respectively; in fact, it’s been about a month since he managed to clear this particular threshold in an away setting.
- Given that the aforementioned injury apparently flared up during the last game, his availability tonight is somewhat uncertain. Even though he claims he feels fine and is ready to go—suggesting that if he doesn't play, you'd at least get your money back—there's still plenty of doubt. Houston Rockets guard Kevin Martin (shoulder) is considered a game-time decision for Tuesday's game at Oklahoma City after being a limited participant in practice Monday, according to the Houston Chronicle. Martin said he has dealt with the shoulder issue for the past month but hit a hard screen during Sunday's contest against Cleveland
- Looking at the season matchups, the Rockets have faced the Oklahoma City Thunder three times already. In their lone trip to face them, Martin only put up 13 points, compared to his more productive home games where he scored 16 and 32.

Good luck to everyone.

Looks like Gay might sit out tonight's game

Andrew Hall46 said:

...it was just a matter of when it would finally happen...

I went ahead and mashed all your picks from today together, so here’s what I’ve got:
More Granger, Miami, Indiana, more Pau Gasol, less Kobe Bryant

I was thinking about riding with the Play again, but the spread on the Wizards is just too high and Wallace isn't even in the lineup, plus I didn't have enough time to get into the HL

Look what I missed.

Let's go with this:

Cleveland at Toronto, odds are sitting at 1.55.
Indiana vs. Portland, odds are at 1.60.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets over 204.5 @1.85
Sacramento vs. Golden State Warriors over 206.5 @1.85
LeBron James under 28.5 @ 1.85
Martin under 16.5 @1.85
Gasol over 14.5 @ 1.85
@53,74

Toronto's missing Calderon, while Cleveland is out here fighting for a Play-In spot.
Indiana looks way stronger than this. Portland is sitting at a miserable 6-14 on the road, so this line is honestly a steal.
Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento should take this one based on pure scoring power and how they're playing right now.
LeBron James is going under 28.5 since he’s sitting at 26.5 online and honestly just struggles against the Orlando Magic.
Martin’s numbers are down because he’s barely seeing more than 20 minutes on the floor lately—averaging under 10 points, plus he was dealing with that injury.
Gasol’s going through cleanly since he couldn't handle those bruisers last time, and now it's payback time. Plus, with Gay sidelined, Marc is probably going to see a few more shots.

Gay isn't playing, and my parlay is officially dead.
Let's just dump everything we've got on LAL instead. ☕

Not even K. Martin showing up tonight

graniteotter6 said:Gay isn't playing, he's listed out on the betting sites.
Let's hammer the Lakers with bets. ☕

Well, it's been about 4 or 5 hours since he failed the concussion test. Still, doesn't mean much to me—the Lakers are absolute beasts on the road.

Well, I was actually at the sportsbook by 7:00, and I didn't even get home until after I finished posting this.
Not even K. Martin? Great. Let's just dump everything into those 1.15 odds, the spreads, and all that other nonsense.
A-ha.🙄 : bettingontherealwinnerjustinoklahomacity:

LeBron James 🙄

The Wizards really feel the need to drop 95+ points on everyone they face...🙄

The Mavericks' defense today.. 😂

shadowjackal27 said:It seems like these Wizards have to score over 95 points just to stay relevant...🙄

The Mavericks' defense today... 😂

This is going to end up like the Phoenix vs. Minnesota game yesterday—just a total track meet where they'll drop 400 points.🙂

graniteotter6 said:Not even K. Martin? Great. Let's just dump everything on those 1.15 spreads and all those ridiculous handicaps.
A-ha.🙄 : stavljacijelubankunapobjeduhjustonauoklahomi:

I’d post a photo of my coffee here, but I suppose that would just make me look like I'm trying too hard.

Man, today was one of those days where hardly anyone walked away with a win🤷,but seriously, major props to the few who actually pulled it off😉. As for me? I totally tanked, just fell flat on my face like a complete amateur😢.

stormyseal9 said:Man, this was one of those nights where hardly anyone got a win🤷,but huge props to the few who actually pulled it off😉,because I fell flat on my face😢

Seriously, last night was nothing to write home about—three straight losses in a row. We saw Oklahoma City Thunder lose at home to Houston (missing both Martin and Lowry), and then Sacramento dropped their home game against the Golden State Warriors (without Ellis and Curry) 🙄 🙂

Things are bound to look up today ☕

Feeling good about
18.5/Granger under 1.85
Iguodala is riding him hard right now; he went under yesterday too, and since he doesn't usually get many looks in the paint, having Iguodala glued to him makes the under look solid.

Just waiting on the Play for the rest of the matchups 👍