NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

I had a feeling the Orlando Magic would pull this off, but those damn overtime periods really stretched things out. I was just playing the usual 🙂
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😍Play, we're waiting on you

Rosa is questionable, Deng is questionable, Watson is out, Hamilton is out, and we're looking at the Heat 2,30.

It’s a safe bet. 😍

If we are actually taking Mr. Bones at his word, then
Chicago (191.5) vs. Miami Heat seems like a stretch. That spread feels a bit too wide for my liking; the last matchup ended at 190, and before that, it was just 160. Plus, they’re dealing with some key absences on the roster today.

LeBron James is currently averaging 32.7 points over his last three matchups against the Bulls.
James L (-28.5+) Chicago vs. Miami... what are the odds?

Arthur Hill2 said:Rosa is questionable, Deng is questionable, Watson is out, Hamilton is out, and we're looking at Heat 2,30.

Hard to miss the mark here 😍

Can't go wrong ☕

you see you can just 🤣

And

Chicago (-9.5) vs. Miami Heat 2-1

Who's actually calling the shots here?

Terry Myers45 said:If what Mr. Bones is saying is actually true, then
Chicago(191.5)-Miami Heat might be too high. Last game was 190, before that it was 160, plus they're missing players today.

James is averaging 32.7 points in his last three games against the Bulls.
James L (-28.5+) Chicago vs Miami more??

Not necessarily. Fewer points doesn't mean less scoring if their defense takes a hit. For example, Deng is an elite defender and he's out, which makes things even easier for Miami's offense. I wouldn't touch this one.

Miami 2 points at 2.40, decent play, but if Rose is out, it's a lock.

LeBron James should probably be on the over unless he plays like garbage again—missing six straight shots yesterday.🤦

Rose is a game-time decision after that collision, but he didn't seem to take any real damage. Honestly, I'm 90% sure he plays. Just gotta wait for the status report tonight.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/76...is-source-says

John Myers55 said:Check this out: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/76...is-source-says

Just wanted to weigh in—looks like the Bucks are going to have some serious help under the rim now with Ilyasov and Gooden Udoh Brown. 😲😲😲😲 And you've got Monta Ellis running the backcourt. 😲😲😲😲 I’m calling it now: he’s going to grab a top 6 seed by the end of the season while averaging 120 points a game. 🤣

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2012031319

Larissa's pick was absolute trash.

Honestly, I think the Golden State Warriors only pulled the trigger on this trade just to get Andrei Bogut healthy. If they had Monta Ellis instead, he could have absolutely shredded the Milwaukee Bucks.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I think the Warriors just pulled this move to get Bogut healthy. Monta Ellis could honestly tear through the Bucks

Looking at how things stand right now, this is a massive boost for the Milwaukee Bucks. They beefed up their paint and added a heavy hitter on offense.

Long term, if they can flip Jennings Elliss for some solid defensive help at the 3 or point guard, they win big. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors offloaded a high-usage scorer and two decent bigs to land an SF they already had—he’s fine, just old and injury-prone—plus a center who’s probably the best defender in the league alongside Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum, if he can actually stay on the court.

If Bogut bounces back fast, this trade works for everyone. It feels like the Warriors did this to protect their pick next year by staying in that bottom-10 territory. On the flip side, Milwaukee is looking like a serious threat to the New York Knicks, who have been all over the place lately. Without a major shakeup, I see the Knicks stuck at the 9th seed this season.

More than enough value in this triple for tonight:

Wade-Carmelo Anthony 1 @1.60
Chicago vs Miami 2 @2.30
Jeremy Lin over 15.5 @1.85
@6.80

-Chicago is dealing with a ton of injuries while Miami is coming in full strength. It’s looking like a total toss-up, so I can't pass up those 2.30 odds on Miami. As for the Wade-Carmelo combo, Dwyane Wade feels more consistent to me. I think the Knicks might actually find it easier to contain Jeremy Lin before they deal with Carmelo Anthony, so I'm leaning toward Wade. I like Lin here because he plays way better at home, and Portland's perimeter defense is honestly pretty terrible.

Melo's gonna get traded lol, I'm pulling for Smith on the New York Knicks

DeRozan over 16.5 at 1.85
-Look, he’s been playing pretty solid lately, even though his last game was an absolute disaster (only dropped 4 baskets while shooting 1-6🤷), but if you look at his last 10 games, he's averaging north of 17 points, and in his last road trip against this same opponent, he went off for 27 points
Dwight Howard over 21.5 at 1.85
-He’s easily the best center in the league and one of the elite players overall, so unless his teammates decide to boycott him or something, the over looks juicy; he’s hit the over in his last 3, he's shooting over 60%, and just two games ago against the San Antonio Spurs, he dropped 24 points
Tony Parker over 20.5 at 1.85
-Since Manu has been sidelined with injuries or just playing limited minutes for a while now, Parker has stepped up as the main man and he's killing it so far; in his last 3 home games, he's been smashing it with 31, 32, and 25 points, and I don't see how he scores any less today because if things get heated, he’ll easily take about 20 shots
LeBron James over 27.5 at 1.85
-He didn't exactly shine yesterday with just 19 points, but check this out: in his last 3 matchups against Chicago, he’s averaging 32.7 points, and honestly, he plays way better on the road than at home. I really think he hits the over today
Magic Johnson under 18.5 at 1.85
-I'm just going with my gut on this one; even though he had a great game last night, the stats show he usually struggles more when he's away, plus he's only just getting back into the swing of things after being injured
Steve Nash under 14.5 at 1.85
-The line is just way too high, plain and simple. He takes so few shots at home—maybe 7 or 8—with the occasional flash like he had in the last game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, so I'm expecting much fewer points today, which means he'll just go back to doing what he does best, which is setting everyone else up
Chris Paul over 20.5 at 1.85
-He's been in great form recently; out of his last 13 games, he only missed the over three times, and looking at his career average against the Atlanta Hawks, he’s sitting at 22 points per game

Standard 6/7 High Limit system👍🙂

The odds on the Heat are looking pretty sweet right now. Honestly, I feel like I could snag anyone else on the roster once those guys currently out with injuries 😁

Given how much Monta Ellis is sitting out right now, combined with that momentum from their comeback against the Cleveland Cavaliers, I’m actually quite fond of that 1.85 line on the veterans.
The odds are already looking decent for the Miami Heat matchup; I'm inclined to agree with the analysis there.
With the Timberwolves and the Cleveland Cavaliers in play, we're looking at some high-scoring teams.
I generally like this spread of options, even if I don't particularly care for the players themselves. Al Jamison went over the initial margin (17.5) last night, though he missed the boosted line (21.5)—that final quarter really screwed him over. In a high-scoring game like the one I expect from the Miami vs. Cleveland matchup, it probably shouldn't be an under.
I wouldn't touch the over on Tony Parker. I have a feeling there will be plenty of points tonight, so I’ll leave that alone; the game feels too unpredictable for my liking.
The Washington Wizards went under again last night, which was at least one correct prediction for me.
Tyler Buzer and I are sticking with our usual bets tonight—we're practically a synchronized trio at this point. 😁

Keeping it simple today without going too deep into the stats: Celtics @ 1.85

Lawrence Castillo76 said:A Melo trade? Haha, I’m pulling for Smith on the New York Knicks.

I don't know, man. They've got Amar'e Stoudemire at the 4, and even if he isn't playing at his absolute peak, how do you bench a superstar like him? Plus, they've got Jamaal Jeffries, who is solid defensively.

Personally, I'd be down for something like:

Howard + Turkoglu for Melo + Chandler

Granger under 18.5

Just a little statistical play here... looking at Granger against Philly—he almost always stays under this line when they face them. Philly’s defensive unit is honestly top-tier, especially at the SF spot where they keep opponents way below this mark. And I mean, obviously, the main reason for that is just how insane Iggy is—seriously one of the best defenders in the league right now...
I'm pairing this with the Heat spread, so Miami +9.5...

edit: wow, literally hasn't even been a minute since the odds shifted and it's already dropped to 1.7🙂