NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Nicholas Chase34 said:Summit crushed the under for Milwaukee - Miami within ten minutes of the lines even opening. 🙂

I'm sniffing around a potential X @ 14,0 on the Golden State - Phoenix game, though given how differently they play, I wouldn't be shocked if that line shifts too.

I put some money down on the under 199.5 at 1.85 as part of a parlay... honestly, should be a pretty easy win.

So, looking at how the Philly (-11.5) and Utah (-3.5) spreads actually shook out... ☕

I’m going against everyone on this one... but there's no way I'm sitting this out :

LA Clippers -2 @ 3.25

Short and sweet—I'm taking Charlotte over 82.5. Huge thanks to the bookies for setting that line; I’m really feeling it. Even if they end up taking the loss, I think Charlotte is going to find their rhythm tonight and blow past that number. Expecting this one to hit without any drama at all...

Bryan Adams6 said:Look, I'll probably go against everyone here... but I just can't pass this one up :

LA Clippers -2 @ 3.25

I actually played this on some guy just for the hell of it and went 2/2

What on earth was CJ Watson playing at last night? Good grief, what an absolute idiot.
He takes 23 shots. Twenty-three! If a bench warmer took 23 shots, I’d be losing my mind, but since it's him? Nothing. At least if it were Kobe, he wouldn't let someone like this take that many attempts.
Maybe if he actually pushed the ball more like Deng, he might have found his rhythm, but instead, he just plays like a total clown.

Anyway...
My goodness, I just caught the end of the Utah game. Jefferson was looking like a complete disaster—what kind of garbage shots was he sinking? It's unbelievable how he managed to score over Gasol with that ridiculous one-handed push...

Nicholas Chase34 said:SS dropped the line on the Milwaukee - Miami under within like 10 minutes of it even going live. 🙂

I’m sniffing out a potential X @ 14,0 on the Golden State - Phoenix game, because man, their playing styles are such a mismatch that I wouldn't be shocked if that crazy number actually hits.

That’s why you gotta get your bets in first thing in the morning before those cheapskates start messing with the odds or tightening up the margins🤷,because if I show up at the shop around 11:30 AM they’re already tweaking everything, and by then the forums are blowing up and everyone is reacting to whatever some guy just posted.😍

stormyseal9 said:That’s exactly why you head out first thing in the morning to place your bets—before those amateurs start messing with the odds or squeezing the margins...🤷I usually roll into the sportsbook around 11:30 AM and they’re already busy cooking up the lines... It seems like everyone is just hanging out on the forums now, and the second someone drops a prediction, the corrections start flying immediately...😍

Well, that’s exactly why we don't talk about stuff like this much on the forum...

stormyseal9 said:That’s why you gotta hit up the sportsbook first thing in the morning before those lazy bones start messing with the odds or the margins.🤷 Honestly, if I roll up around 11:30 AM, they’re already tweaking things, and by then everyone on the forums is already buzzing about it, so you’ll just see people trying to correct the lines immediately.😍

I actually just grabbed it right away at the standard line over at Pinnacle, which was way better anyway (1.990), but I really just wanted to point out how fast Supersport moves on their stuff. 🤣 🤷

Look, that doesn't actually mean anything, and it has absolutely nothing to do with what's happening on this forum. In the States, they typically release the odds the evening before,
Then there’s that standard correction period over there around 11:00 AM, which hits our time zone at about 5:00 PM, and then sites like Supersport and the others just mirror those changes.
It’s been going on exactly like this for years, day in and day out. If that were truly the case, why didn't they bother adjusting the Jazz handicap?
Could that perhaps be a sign that the bet isn't going to land?
In reality, the spread gets adjusted in Vegas based on things like hitting every single point for every five or six-figure wager placed there,
plus there are plenty of other factors driving those shifts, like official statements or sudden injury reports.
That’s exactly what was reported over on Covers; it certainly wasn't because of some random group of people from Moldova (or anywhere else for that matter, it's all the same to them).

boldgull20 said:That doesn't mean anything—it has zero to do with the forum. In the US, they release the lines the night before,
then there's a correction at 11 AM their time, which is 5 PM for us, and then Supersport and the others just copy them.
It’s been happening like this for years. If that were true, why didn't they adjust the Jazz handicap?
Is that maybe a sign it won't hit?
The spread gets adjusted in Vegas based on every five or six-figure bet placed there,
plus there are other reasons for adjustments—statements, injuries, etc.
They wrote that on Covers; it's not because of a few random people from Moldova (or the US, or Mexico—it's all the same to them).

No, it isn't. It happens because massive bets on specific parlays—the kind usually posted on the betting forums—are crushing the odds. That's all there is to it.

Forget Las Vegas; don't get carried away. 🤣

The worst part is that people assume when a line for a handicap, total, or player prop drops from 1.85 to 1.70, it automatically means that parlay is a lock. I've rarely seen anyone actually play those boosted 2.00 lines; everyone just chases the 1.70.

Meanwhile, our local bookies fleece us right out of the gate with those 1.85-1.85 lines, and then once the US adjusts the spread by a single point, they drop even those measly 1.85s down to 1.70. 🙏

I've also noticed that Supersport sets the over/under totals one or two points higher than, say, Pinnacle. It’s obvious people favor the overs over the unders, so they bake in a little extra cushion to protect themselves.

boldgull20 said:That doesn't mean a damn thing, seriously, it has zero to do with what's happening on the forums. In the States, they drop the lines the night before,
then they do their adjustments around 11 AM their time, which is like 5 PM for us, and then Supersport and everyone else just copies them.
It’s been like this day in and day out for years! If that was actually true, why didn't they fix the Jazz spread then?
Is that maybe a sign it won't hit?
The spread shifts in Vegas based on whether someone drops a five or six-figure bet over there,
plus there are plenty of other reasons for moves—quotes, injury reports, you name it,
they literally wrote that on Covers, it's not because of some random fans from Moldova (or anywhere else, honestly, it's all the same to them)

It’s not always at 5 PM, man, I’ve seen lines move way before noon plenty of times where things are climbing or tanking, like one time I saw James at 26.5 at 1.85 and by the time I actually got down to the shop, the line had already shifted🤷,which is why I try to get my business done by 11 AM so I don't get stuck with gutted odds, not even mentioning how much the margins vary, but sometimes that timing totally saves your skin,😍one point can make or break everything sometimes☕

I'm with you on that. I mean, who has actually sat down and looked at this? You really have to take what you already know and start integrating it into the bigger picture. If someone just glances at an Euler probability function, they might miss the forest for the trees, but once you realize those two baskets sitting just above and below the limit are essentially the most critical pieces of the puzzle, everything starts to click.
http://images.jedsoft.org/slang/modu...es/figure4.png

Kevin Love under 24.5, 1.85
5/10

Look, I don't really have the headspace for some deep-dive analysis right now, so let's keep it brief. Honestly? Orlando is easily the most dominant squad when it comes to defending the PF spot. I mean, I think it's pretty obvious to everyone why that is—it's Howard.

boldgull20 said:I'm with you—who actually looks at this stuff? You gotta integrate what you know, right? Basically, if you've seen an Euler probability function, you realize those two baskets being above or below the line is the only thing that really matters.
http://images.jedsoft.org/slang/modu...es/figure4.png

So, if we're betting the over, is it smarter to take the 199.5 line at 1.82 rather than hitting the 200.5 at 1.91?

Ron Artest offering fashion advice to Jeremy Lin 🙄

"No, I don't personally wear them, but he really ought to. He seems like the kind of guy who should be rocking leather pants and some sharp sneakers. You're Jeremy Lin, for goodness sake! You know what I mean? You follow me? Put down those legal textbooks, stop reading the New York Times, and start picking up the Daily News. I've always found those papers much more appealing because they're just so full of color. What else... oh, right, try wearing your cap backward. Show up to practice in some oversized baggy pants and just say, 'I'm not really feeling practice today,' you know? Practice? And maybe throw on an Iverson jersey. Just roll up to training with a cigar in your mouth and declare, 'I am Jeremy Lin!' A little change is necessary." Otherwise, everyone is pretty hyped for the game. Even Kobe Bryant is excited. He's looking to drop 50! He wants to welcome Jeremy to the next level of basketball !"

The night ended: Jeremi 38 vs Bryant 34

I find this Artest absolutely insufferable; his arrogance is just overwhelming...

Nicholas Chase34 said:Supersport slashed the odds on the Milwaukee - Miami under within ten minutes of them even going live. Crazy. 🙂

Pinnacle has the under 200.5 sitting at 1.97. 🤣

Sean Sullivan87 said:Ron Artest giving fashion advice to Jeremy Lin 🙄



"Look, I don't wear them, but he really should. He’s just the kind of guy who needs to rock leather pants and some killer sneakers. You're Jeremy Lin, for crying out loud! You get what I'm saying? You feel me? Put down those legal textbooks, stop reading the New York Times, and start picking up the Daily News. I love that paper—it's always so colorful. What else... Oh, right. Wear your hat backward. Show up to practice in oversized baggy shorts and tell them, 'I'm not feeling it today,' you know? Practice? Just throw on an Iverson jersey. Roll up to training with a cigar in your mouth and say, 'I am Jeremy Lin!' A man's gotta change his image. Anyway, we're all hyped for the game. Even Kobe Bryant is pumped. He wants that 50! He wants to welcome Jeremy to the next level of basketball!"

The night ended like this: Jeremi 38 vs Bryant 34

Honestly, I can't stand this Artest guy. The arrogance is just off the charts...

ARTEST is Bog !!!!! 🙏

James Taylor3 said:No, it's not that. They're placing massive bets on parlays where the odds are dropping because they're already posted on the forum. What are you thinking?
What do you mean by Las Vegas? That's nonsense. 🤣
The worst part is how people assume that if a line for a handicap, total, or player prop drops from 1.85 to 1.70, that parlay is a guaranteed winner. I rarely see anyone actually take those boosted 2.00 odds; everyone just chases the 1.70.
Our local bookies fleece us right out of the gate with those 1.85-1.85 lines. Then, once the spread in the US gets adjusted by a single point, they drop even those measly 1.85 lines down to 1.70. 🙏
I've also noticed that Supersport sets their totals 1-2 points higher than, say, Pinnacle. It's obvious people bet on the over way more than the under, so they squeeze a little extra profit out of it there.

I completely agree with everything stated above!!

Artest is the king—he handled that ridiculous question perfectly. 🤷

boldmoose18 said:I couldn't agree more with that statement.

👍