NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Marked with an X☕

As for OKC, I don't really expect them to drop two in a row.

In the end, Portland barely scraped by, while the Lakers were nowhere near competitive—it was honestly pathetic.

I swear on my life—if you catch me watching the Lakers play even one more game this season, you have my permission to take me out with a shovel, a baseball bat, or whatever blunt object is lying around. This level of basketball they're putting up is "impressive" in all the wrong ways, game after game.

daxyx said:Honestly, hats off to whoever managed to nail that NBA parlay today. Absolute legend.

Quotan here, just slightly tweaking my buddy's tennis post.

Last night I went single under on Charlotte vs Chicago (183.5) 🙂
I barely managed to get my bet in just 5 or 10 minutes before tip-off—I honestly didn't have a spare second all day to actually sit down and dig through the lines...

then Magic somehow pulls some miracle out of nowhere and suddenly everyone's acting like they're geniuses... what a joke. 🙂

Alex Cook said:Acela angle all day long!

🙂

Nicholas Chase34 said:Honestly, this feels like one of my best picks of the day, maybe even the week, because when I look at this matchup, I see nothing but a win for Detroit, and I've got some pretty solid reasons why. These two squads have already faced off twice this year and they're sitting at 1-1 right now. In their first meeting, the New Jersey home crowd watched them take it 99-96, but then Detroit went out and grabbed an away victory just two days ago 92-99. Plus, Detroit has Ben Gordon back in the mix after being sidelined for about a month; he looked sharp coming back against the Nets with 14 points on 6-7 shooting, so he should definitely help spice up that offense. On the injury front, Detroit is looking pretty healthy—just Charlie Villanueva, who hasn't really been part of the rotation all season anyway—whereas the Nets are basically playing with half a roster. They’ve got Lopez (out since the start of the season), Bogans, Okur, Stevenson, Brooks, and LeBron James all on the injury report. That is a massive list that includes three starters, leaving the Nets' depth looking incredibly thin. It's mostly going to fall on the shoulders of Deron Williams, Morrow, and Humphries, while the rest of the bench is, frankly, pretty lackluster. Let's dive into their previous matchups and why I think this is such a juicy bet.

The biggest edge, and honestly the deciding factor, is how Detroit dominates the paint by getting those easy layups and dunks. If you check the stats over at hoopdata.com, Detroit racked up 76 field goals (38-59) right at the rim during their last two meetings, compared to just 44 for the Nets (21-40), which is a huge gap. New Jersey relies way too much on perimeter shooting, mid-range jumpers, and threes because they just don't have anyone to bully people inside. Their only real interior threats are Humphries and Serena Williams, and Detroit already has a plan to shut them down. If the Pistons can just keep the Nets from finding their rhythm from deep, the home team should cruise to a very comfortable win—I wouldn't be surprised if it's a double-digit blowout. Good luck! ☕

Detroit Pistons - New Jersey Nets
Detroit @ 1.75 - 9/10 - Pinnacle
Detroit -8.5 @ 3.3 - 1/10 - SuperSport

FT 109-92 🙂 It was actually a 30-point lead at one point, but this works too 😁

Sean Sullivan87 said:Something's bugging me... you laid everything out so clearly, and I've decided to follow your lead on this, but I'm just not following the math. SS and all the other sportsbooks have all this same info, yet they're still offering odds of 1.75. 🤷It doesn't make any sense; there's gotta be something fishy going on here. Bookmakers aren't stupid—based on this breakdown, betting on Detroit at 1.40 would be a total gift, so why is it sitting at 1.75?😲

You know, the oddsmakers and bookies were definitely looking at the current standings and how strong these rosters seemed, but they completely missed that specific edge the Detroit Pistons had going for them. That little detail is exactly what makes Detroit such a massive favorite here, and since there wasn't some sudden injury or anything crazy to worry about, the Vegas lines had absolutely no reason to drop those odds.

That’s the exact advantage I was talking about, and it’s the reason Detroit managed to pull off such a convincing win (46 points at the rim compared to just 24 from the Nets). 👍 ☕

So, I won't beat around the bush—the main reason I’m eyeing this pick is pretty much because Portland is struggling big time on the road, sitting at a shaky 4-9 away from home, especially when they have to deal with those back-to-back stretches where they've been a disastrous 1-6 against the spread. On the flip side, the Dallas Mavericks handle that heavy schedule way more effectively, coming out 4-1 ATS in their recent back-to-backs.
Looking back, these two squads went head-to-head in the playoffs last season, and Dallas walked away with the series win, 4-2. When they played at home against Portland, Dallas made it look easy, covering the spread in every single matchup. Portland's game against New Orleans last night really highlighted their struggles on the road; they were all over the place, even finding themselves down by 4 at halftime against a New Orleans squad that was actually playing without a few of their key guys. Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki has been absolutely heating up lately, dropping 25 and 33 points in his last two outings. All things considered, Dallas is a tough nut to crack at home, they've found their rhythm, and honestly, I’d be shocked if Portland pulled anything positive here since they've dropped games to much weaker teams than Dallas. I actually think the line could move up to -5.5, so getting Dallas at 2.01 feels like a solid value play to me. Good luck!
Dallas Mavericks - Portland Trailblazers
Dallas -4.5 @ 2.01 Pinnacle 5/10

The system went 7/10 and, yep—seven misses. ☕ Honestly, watching the Lakers fall apart was painful, and my Celtics didn't exactly make it easy either—plus we were all expecting way more from Dwight Howard. And then there's Iguodala, just ruining my night again with one random dunk. 😍

Jeremy Lin is absolutely wild 🙏

Chris Paul over 18.5 @ 1.85
Jamison over 16.5 @ 1.70
Williams over 22.5 @ 1.85
Jennings over 17.5 @ 1.85
Dwight Howard over 21.5 @ 1.85
Nash over 14.5 @ 1.85
Evans over 17.5 @ 1.85 HL

6/7 system☕

Tim Duncan over 13.5 @ 1.85
LaMarcus Aldridge under 23.5 @ 1.85
Charlotte under 89.5 @ 1.85
196.5/Sacramento-Phoenix under 1.85
Parker over 19.5 @ 1.85
Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5 @ 1.85
Cleveland(h+6.5)-Phila 1 1.85
Minnesota(h-6.5)-NYK 2 1.85 SS

7/8 system🙂, man I'm really hoping for a big win after about 10 days of this grind🤷

I’m really not feeling today's lineup, so I'm just gonna stick with @Nicholas Chase34/">@@Nicholas Chase34's picks and throw a little bit on some Italian soccer. Whatever happens, happens, I guess. 😍

Charlotte under 89.5
Look, I'm not saying the Clippers are some kind of defensive juggernaut or anything—they aren't exactly elite there—but I honestly think this line hits just because the home team is in a massive hole right now. Especially after losing guys like Augustin and Henderson to injuries, who won't be suited up tonight either... I mean, they've averaged a measly 75 points over their last five games. They’re playing absolute garbage lately, and I just don't see how they can pull anything away from the Clippers...
Plus, you've got Hend at +9.5 on the Clippers proc... man, now I'm torn on what to pick 🤔

Keith Moore21 said:Charlotte under 89.5
Look, the Clippers aren't some elite defensive juggernaut or anything, but I'm taking this just because the home team is in a massive hole. Especially since they're missing their top guys, Augustin and Henderson, who won't be out tonight either... They've averaged a pathetic 75 points over their last five games. They're playing like trash and I don't see how they do anything against the Clippers...
Plus, you've got Henderson +9.5 on the Clippers proc... honestly, what's the move here? 🤔

How does the Bobcats defense handle the paint? Maybe Blake Griffin over 21.5? Don't want to just copy your play... 🤣

Bryan Adams6 said:Man, I don't even know how to describe the way the Bobcats defend the paint right now—it's honestly kind of a mess. I was looking at the numbers, and I can't help but wonder if Blake Griffin might actually go over 21.5 points given how much space they're giving up inside. I mean, I don't want to just parrot exactly what you're thinking—don't want us both hitting the same bet—but the math seems to be leaning that way. 🤣

Man, don't even worry about it—I caught that too. Honestly, I’ve been thinking about playing it, because let's be real, almost nobody in this league can actually handle Blake Griffin's position or defend the paint properly. It's kind of a mess out there. 🤣
Man, there could’ve been so many more dunks from Hercules today—I mean, seriously, why was that big guy Diaw just babysitting him? My old lady jumps higher than he does, honestly. 🤣

Keith Moore21 said:Yeah, don't sweat it. I noticed that too. I'm actually thinking about playing it, because honestly, nobody in this league can defend Blake Griffin's position or protect the rim. 🤣
Hercules could’ve been throwing down nothing but dunks today if that fathead Diaw wasn't hogging all the space. My old lady jumps higher than him. 🤣

😕 Let's go with the over. It’s about damn time we actually hit a parlay that isn't a total bust. ☕

Bryan Adams6 said:😕 so I guess we're hitting the over... honestly, it feels like it's finally time for this exact same matchup to go our way ☕

☕

I’m also leaning toward the Dallas handicap. The Trail Blazers have been struggling over the last 4 or 5 games—they look miserable on back-to-backs, not to mention their dismal road record.
Last night, they barely scraped by a terrible Charlotte Hornets squad that was playing without three starters, including their top two scorers. 🙂

Honestly, Wilson Felton is just a subpar player... I don't get why they let Andre Miller walk so easily. 😠

He would fit right in with this roster.

I went ahead and took the spread since they're absolutely tearing everyone apart right now... I guess even Lob City might be next

I’m thinking about putting some money down today...
San Antonio +100
Orlando +94

32w/31l ; +34,328 units ; ROI: +11.18%

Dallas vs Portland
Pick: Dallas -4.5

Odds: 1.98

Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Unit: 5/10

Nicholas Chase34 pretty much covered all the bases—I'm inclined to agree—so I’ll just add this:

Portland had an unexpectedly grueling matchup against the Charlotte Hornets on the road last night; they barely scraped by in the final minutes. LaMarcus Aldridge, Ben Wallace, and Wilson Felton all saw heavy minutes. On the other hand, while Dallas played last night too, their rotation was lighter than Portland's following their win over the Minnesota Timberwolves—which makes sense given how deep the Mavericks' bench is. Dallas also hasn't dealt with a schedule as punishing as Portland's lately. Plus, Portland isn't exactly playing great basketball; they struggle on the road and tend to fall apart during back-to-back sets. Dirk Nowitzki is playing like an MVP again, and the Blazers' defense is going to have a hard time containing him. Last year in the playoffs, the Blazers managed to take two home games against Dallas—including that wild comeback from down 24 in the second half—but Brandon Roy isn't in the picture today 😢 . Meanwhile, Dallas handled their home games in that series quite easily. Dallas is finding their rhythm and will be dangerous come playoff time; they should handle business tonight. The spread isn't too steep—I expect Rick Carlisle's squad to cover.