Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

US Soccer Championship, Final (Second Leg) 12.16.2012 23:30

Millionarios vs. Ind. Medellin: 1 at 1.55. Even though the first leg ended in a scoreless 0-0 draw, things have shifted for Medellin; Viafara picked up an unnecessary red card in the 86th minute, which might leave them shorthanded in this title fight. On the flip side, Millionarios has been incredibly tough to beat at home, remaining undefeated in their last ten matches—with only two draws in that stretch. So, if anyone is looking for a match to follow tonight, this could be an interesting one. Good luck! 🙂

jadewolf16 said:December 16th

LA Galaxy vs. Atletico Madrid — Both teams to score @ 1.70

Atletico hasn't seen a "both teams score" result in six games now—and honestly, looking at how these offenses play, I feel like this outcome is basically a lock!

🙂

December 16th, 2:00 PM

Borussia Dortmund II vs. Aachen — X2 @ 1.60

Since Aachen is kind of "my" team, I’ve been keeping a super close eye on them for years. They’re investing money, they're serious, they’ve got a loyal fanbase... but man, the wins just haven't come. It’s high time they turned things around, and what better chance than playing against a club sitting in 19th place with zero real ambition?

Those German guys won't need more than two weeks to sweep the floor with them!

December 15th

QPR vs. Fulham — Home Win @ 2.40

They’re pouring so much money into this, yet they haven't managed a single win in the first 16 rounds?! After facing Fulham—who aren't exactly playing great either—they’ve got a brutal schedule ahead. If they’re ever going to snag a victory, it really has to be this time.

🙂

placidmaker62 said:MLS Cup Final (Second Leg), Dec 16, 2012, 11:30 PM

Millionaires vs. Indy Medellin. Odds are at 1.55 for a Millionaires win, which is interesting considering the first leg ended in a 0-0 stalemate. To make things even more complicated for Medellin, Viafara picked up an unnecessary red card in the 86th minute, so he won't be available to help them chase the title. On the flip side, the Millionaires haven't lost a single home game in their last ten matches—and they've only managed two draws in that stretch. If anyone feels like tuning in, enjoy the match! Good luck. 🙂

Final Score 1:1 🙂

Kayserispor vs. Kasimpasa: Both teams to score at 1.70
Looking at these two, we’re talking about goal-heavy squads—both sides are trending heavily toward the over, pulling in 9 over results compared to just 6 unders lately.
Both teams play an aggressive, attacking style that creates plenty of scoring opportunities every single match.
The home side has this annoying habit of settling for 1-1 draws quite often.
As for the visitors, they’ve managed to find the back of the net in almost all their away games, failing to score only twice.
Expect them to come out swinging again, pushing forward and hunting for goals from the whistle.
It’s a toss-up on who has the edge—the home team has that home-field advantage and the crowd behind them, but the visitors are sitting higher in the standings and are on a tear right now, unbeaten in their last 6.

Reading vs. Arsenal: Over 2.5 goals at 2.05
Reading hasn't really struggled to find the net at home, aside from that one 0-0 stalemate against Norwich.
With the way Arsenal has been playing recently, anything can happen on the pitch, but honestly, goals seem like the most logical bet given their current momentum.
Reading actually beefed up their attack with the return of Roberts and Pogrebnyak, so they definitely have the firepower to punish Arsenal.

Arsenal is feeling the heat here—they’ve only managed one win in their recent stretch, and that loss to Bradford was a real gut punch... This is a massive game for them.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see Arsenal struggling to find their rhythm again, or maybe just a total lapse in concentration during the match... which is exactly what the home side will look to exploit.
The home defense is pretty leaky, sure, but they are lethal when they get going in front of their own fans. Meanwhile, Arsenal looks unconvincing and frankly unreliable right now, even though they desperately need this win to quiet the critics and stop the bleeding...
Personally, I think both sides will get on the scoresheet—the last three matches played at Reading have all gone over the goal line.

Roger Phillips said:Both teams to score in the LA Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders match, odds at 1.70

Final Score 1:0

Roger Phillips said:Reading vs. Arsenal, over 2.5 goals at 2.05

Final Score 2:5

US Open Cup
K. Offenbach - Fortuna Dusseldorf..........2 1.90

The US Open Cup just feels different compared to other tournaments you see around the world. It’s like teams don't mess around with rotations—they show up with basically the same lineups they use in the regular season. Plus, since this is the final big match for these guys before the winter break, everyone is itching to get this over with so they can finally relax and enjoy the holidays!
There is a massive gap between these two sides... I mean, Fortuna is sitting pretty at 13th in the top tier and they are looking seriously sharp lately (they've gone 3-1-1 in their last five). For instance, they recently knocked off Hannover 2-1, crushed Eintracht 4-1, beat Hamburg 2-0, grabbed a point against Dortmund, and only dropped one to Nuremberg... why am I even telling you this? Just because it shows they’ve found their rhythm and the whole front office is riding high after this last month of play.
If you look at the sports forums or check the local papers, the consensus is that they are going into this game at 100%. They’re hungry to hit the quarterfinals for the first time since '95, and let's be real—there's a cool $250,000 payday waiting if they pull this off. I'm guessing we won't see many subs either, especially since their next match isn't until mid-January... of course, Offenbach has the same motivation, but...
They're a third-division squad stuck in the middle of the pack, and more importantly, they are in absolute shambles right now. In their last five games, they've only managed one win (1-0-4), and honestly, those last four were all straight losses. Total disaster.
Based on what the coaches and players are saying, nobody is underestimating this. They're coming in with total focus and maximum motivation to advance.

Throwing a little hockey and basketball onto the parlay too:

Valerenga - Frisk Asker.......1 1.45
The home team hasn't played in about two weeks, and Frisk has been playing them constantly lately—they're practically old friends at this point!

Krefild - Nurnberg...............1 1.75
Krefild is on an absolute tear right now—nine wins in a row! Unbelievable.

C. Zvezda - Split.................1(-14.5) 1.60
With Split missing some key players, there is no way they stand a chance against what I think is the strongest team in the league right now.

7.71
Good luck!

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Millwall – Draw at 3.40, or Both Teams to Score at 1.70

Man, this is one of those matches where anything can happen—seriously, all three outcomes are on the table—but given how much is riding on this and how close these two sides are in terms of actual quality and momentum... I’m leaning heavily toward a draw being the most likely outcome here.
It’s a massive game because if the home side pulls it off, they’ll be right level with their opponents on points... but if the visitors snatch the win, they’re gonna pull away with a massive 6-point lead.
Both squads are hungry for that playoff spot, and honestly, things are looking pretty good for them so far.
Brighton has been solid—they’ve only dropped one match in their last ten, and that was out in London against a powerhouse like Crystal Palace.
When they're playing at the Amex, they almost always find the back of the net—they've only failed to score in 4 out of their last 11 home games.
Millwall is sitting in 8th right now, and they definitely want to stay there through the end of the season... which isn't some pipe dream if they keep playing the way they have been.
They've been playing some really sharp football; they actually had this huge unbeaten streak going until they ran into Ipswich—if I recall correctly, it was about 12 games without a loss.
Funny enough, they seem even more dangerous on the road—they’ve actually picked up more points away from home than anywhere else... the only times they didn't score were that 0-0 against Watford and that 3-0 loss over at Ipswich.
Back when they met in London at The Den, Brighton walked away with a 2-1 win.
If you look further back to the 2011/12 season, both matchups ended in draws with goals:
Feb 14, 2012: Brighton - Millwall 2 : 2
Oct 18, 2011: Millwall - Brighton 1 : 1

Look, both teams are in great shape and chasing the exact same goal... I don't quite buy that Brighton will sweep both meetings this season—though it's possible—but I also find it hard to believe a team playing this well, especially on the road, is going to drop two in a row. Today, though, I’m giving Millwall a slight edge.
Because the stakes are so high, I really think both sides might just settle for a point.
Brighton is a fortress at home too—they’ve only conceded twice in a single game once, and that was against Leeds in a 2-2 scrap; in the other 10 games, they either gave up one goal or nothing at all.
Their home record is 4-5-2, while Millwall’s away form sits at 4-4-3.

For Brighton, they've got Mackail-Smith, Dobbie, Buckley...
But Millwall? They have a killer attacking trio:
Darius Henderson, Andrew Keogh, and Chris Wood... plus you can't forget Liam Trotter, who’s always a threat to pop up on the scoresheet. The visitors are still missing Henderson today, though.
The way I see it, a draw is super likely—something like a 1-1 feels just right.

Roger Phillips said:LA Galaxy vs. LAFC X 3,40

Final Score 2:2

Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS
Man, looking at the numbers, out of their last 11 matches, freaking 10 of them went over... just pure chaos.
Even if Wolfsburg looks totally uninspired lately—and let's be real, they have—they’re playing at home, and you can never count them out for snagging a goal or two when they actually find their rhythm.
On the other side, the visitors are absolutely tearing it up right now. They've pulled off 5 wins in their last 6 outings, dropping only 5 goals while pumping in 14... it's ridiculous.
I remember about a month back, Wolfsburg actually stunned them at home with a 3-1 win in the Bundesliga, so I'm calling it now—they're gonna be hungry to settle the score today.
Both these squads are basically built to trade blows; they score easily but can't seem to keep a clean sheet to save their lives. Wolfsburg has conceded in 8 straight games, and they've only managed to shut out an opponent three times all season... especially considering this is a cup match with two high-octane attacking teams involved, there's almost no way this doesn't end with at least 2 or 3 goals flying in.

Roger Phillips said:Volkswagen vs. Leverkusen 3-1, 1.70

Full Time 2-1

LA Galaxy vs. Atlanta United 1&3+ 1.78

The Galaxy have an absolute powerhouse of an offense, especially when they're playing at home in LA... it's just different there.
They’re basically the juggernauts of the league right now—I mean, dropping 27 goals in just 8 games? That's insane.
They almost always find the back of the net at least twice at home, so I’m fully expecting those guys from Atlanta to push back and grab two or three themselves—and honestly, I'm calling for a win here too.
Atlanta has been pretty shaky on the road, easily one of the weaker sides out there... they're giving up nearly two goals per game away from home, though they did manage to scrape 7 goals together against a 15 goal deficit.
There's a decent chance they nick a goal in LA, but even if they don't, the Galaxy are more than capable of putting up 3 on their own—fingers crossed...
Plus, the visitors are banged up in the backline, missing two key defenders—their starter Lago and the backup Samuel.
I'm looking at a Galaxy victory with plenty of action in the net.
The over is sitting at a modest 1.57, which isn't a bad shout, but this specific combo feels way better to me since we should be seeing a total blowout in terms of scoring.

Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers 1 @1.90

I feel like giving this a shot tonight—even if the odds aren't spectacular since Portland is sitting at the top of the table. That said, the bookies aren't being foolish either; it's pretty obvious Portland hasn't been playing with their usual spark lately—they've managed just one win and four draws in their last five matches. On the flip side, Seattle has gone 2-2-1 in their last five, and from what I've seen, they actually look like they're finding their rhythm again... Looking back at the head-to-head history, Portland tends to be a bit of a thorn in Seattle's side, and they'll be missing their captain again tonight. So, basing this purely on current momentum, Portland looks shaky compared to Seattle. Plus, there's the Tony Di Cania factor—he'll definitely be looking to pull an upset against the league leaders...

Cleveland - Detroit 1 @ 2.20 Germany

Back to Cleveland again—mostly because they've been treating me quite well lately, so why stop now? It really comes down to current momentum, similar to how things looked in yesterday's matchup. While Seattle - Portland was recently riding a massive wave of form, today it's Cleveland's turn—they’ve gone 4-1-0 in their last five league games with an impressive 18-4 goal difference. Detroit, meanwhile, hasn't managed a win in their last five outings. On top of that, Detroit had to grind through a cup match that went all the way to penalties this past Tuesday, whereas Cleveland stayed fresh after playing Saturday... There might be some headaches for the home side after January if they can't keep McGoldrick around once his loan ends, but for now, the squad is clicking perfectly and worth following...

Roger Phillips said:Atletico Madrid - Vigo 1&3+ 1.78

FT 1:0
Atletico is absolute trash...🙂

Feyenoord - Groningen H-1 2.00
Feyenoord is fighting for the top spot—they're definitely one of the main contenders for the title this season.
With de Cuip leading them, they’re basically unbeatable lately—only lost once in their last 14 matches in the MLS, and even then, it was just an away game against Twente.
They've covered the handicap in five straight home games. They didn't hit the spread in last week's match against The Hague, nor in those two draws—the 1:1 at Heerenveen and that 2:2 against Ajax.
Groningen, on the other hand, has been playing pretty damn poorly. I watched them against Ajax on Thursday, and man, they couldn't create a single decent chance in 90 minutes—maybe one scramble in the box, but that was it. Just terrible, honestly.
Playing away at Feyenoord, the visitors are probably just going to sit back and defend—their offense is pretty weak, usually running a 4-4-2.
They're still missing Schet in the attack today, and Hiariej is a total question mark.
They're one of those teams that doesn't score much and doesn't concede much either—their games usually have way fewer goals than the MLS average—but I'm expecting plenty of action today, especially since they'll likely lose by a handicap.
The way I see it, Feyenoord is just way better right now. They're in better shape, they're at home, and they're hungry to stay at the top... Groningen stands almost zero chance in my book.
Both sides played mid-week cup games, but Feyenoord had an extra day to rest, so they should be fresher.

Looking at the last three meetings in Rotterdam, though, Groningen was a much stronger side last season;

03/04/12, Feyenoord - FC Groningen 1 : 0
02/27/11, Feyenoord - FC Groningen 5 : 1
12/06/09, Feyenoord - FC Groningen 3 : 1

GL

Injury Report:
Everton FC vs Wigan Athletic
Everton FC: Marouane Fellaini (15/8 m), Kevin Mirallas (11/1 f), Hibbert (5/0 d), Coleman (12/0 m) (doubtful)
Wigan Athletic: McCarthy (18/2 m), Ramis (13/1 d) (both doubtful), Lopez (5/0 d), Watson (8/1 m), Yuya Miyaichi (4/0 f), Crusat (0/0 m), Alcaraz (2/0 d)

Fulham FC vs Southampton
Fulham FC: Diarra (8/0 m), Duff (16/3 m) (both doubtful), Etheridge (0/0 g), Ruiz (9/1 ), Davies (0/0 m)
Southampton: Gazzaniga (9/0 g), Adam Lallana (16/2 m) (both doubtful)

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa: Vlaar (13/0 d), Agbonlahor (13/1 f) (both doubtful), Bent (10/2 f), Gardner (1/0 m), Dunne (0/0 d), Petrov (0/0 m)
Tottenham Hotspur: Assou-Ekotto (3/1 d), Dempsey (14/3 m) (both doubtful), Kaboul (1/0 d)

Charlton Athletic vs Ipswich Town
Charlton Athletic: Wilson (14/2 m), Wiggins (5/0 d), Evina (3/0 d), Hughes (0/0 m), Azeez (0/0 f)
Ipswich Town: Murphy (19/4 f) (doubtful), Taylor (3/0 f)

Barnsley FC vs Birmingham City
Barnsley FC: Cranie (18/0 d), Davies (17/8 top scorer, probably out), Buzsaky (5/0 m), Noble-Lazarus (6/1 f), Sinclair (3/0 f), Mellis (19/3 m) (doubtful)
Birmingham City: King (21/12 top scorer), Caddis (7/0 d), Diop (2/1 m), Lovenkrands (14/2 f), Spector (19/0 d), Ambrose (5/0 m), Murphy (13/0 d), Carr (0/0 d), Asante (0/0 f)

Wolverhampton vs Peterborough
Wolverhampton: Sigurdarson (17/3 f) (doubtful), Margreitter (1/0 d), O'Hara (0/0 m), Peszko (8/0 m), Boukari (4/0 m), Edwards (17/1 m), Mouyokolo (0/0 d), Hennessey (0/0 g), Hunt (0/0 m), Elokobi (0/0 d)
Peterborough: Ntlhe (11/1 d), Grant (0/0 d), Barnett (0/0 f)

Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen FC
Motherwell FC: Saunders (0/0 d)
Aberdeen FC: Jack (8/0 m), Milsom (2/0 m), Clark (10/1 m), Naysmith (5/0 d), Osbourne (14/1 m)

Dundee FC vs Celtic FC
Dundee FC: Davidson (18/1 m), Milne (10/1 f), Finnigan (0/0 f), Kerr (5/0 m), Easton (2/0 d), McCluskey (0/0 m), Grassi (6/0 d), Toshney (6/0 d)
Celtic FC: Matthews (14/0 d), Commons (13/3 m), Ledley (10/1 m), Stokes (1/0 f)

LA Galaxy - LAFC 1 @2.55

Checking out tomorrow's matchup where they've got the Galaxy sitting at 2.55 against LAFC. 😲

The odds probably look like that because they took a massive hit last week with that embarrassing 6-1 blowout on the road against the Sounders, but honestly, they've been playing great all season, especially when they're at home. They're sitting pretty in second place while LAFC is struggling down in ninth. The Galaxy haven't lost a single game at home so far (W5 D1 L0, outscoring folks 13-5), whereas LAFC hasn't managed a win on the road all year (W0 D2 L4, a measly 4-10). 🤷

I’m definitely putting a unit on the Galaxy straight up, but if you want to play it safe, a double chance 1X at @1.40 is a solid move.

St. Louis City vs. FC Cincinnati 3+ 1,80
Look, both these squads have absolutely zero clue how to defend right now... it's a mess.
The home side is totally shorthanded—they're missing their starting fullback, two key defenders, a defensive mid, and one of their most vital midfielders. On the bright side, though, they get their star striker back in the lineup.
St. Louis has been riding a wave of high-scoring games lately—five in a row hitting the over—and honestly, the visitors have the worst defense in the league, which means their games are almost always goal fests.
The away team is also feeling the sting without one of their defensive mids, and while their main center-back isn't quite at 100% yet, he might still suit up.
Cincinnati is coming out with a three-man attack, and the big news here is that all three of their heavy hitters—think guys like Giroud or similar top-tier talent—are expected to start.
Both teams are basically the kings of the "over" in MLS; Cincinnati has seen 16 high-scoring games, and St. Louis has hit the over in 15 out of their 21 matches so far.
Expect an open game... maybe not pretty, especially since the weather and field conditions aren't exactly perfect, but the attackers should definitely be the stars of the show today.

Seattle Sounders vs. Atlanta United 3+ 1,80
When you watch Seattle play, you're looking at an average of 3 goals per match. They play this aggressive 4-3-3 style that just invites action.
They’ve got a full squad in the attacking third today, and when it comes to betting on goals, having a complete frontline is everything.
Their trio upfront should be able to cook something up against an Atlanta defense that looks incredibly disorganized and frankly, just bad.
Atlanta is in a rough spot, seriously—this season has been a total disaster for them, nothing is going right... but hey, there's no real favorite in this matchup, anything can happen.
(Atlanta) brought in three new signings, but they won't actually be eligible to play until the new year, so they're basically praying for a better 2024.
Their defense is also taking a massive hit because they're playing without two of their key defenders today.
They're going to be hunting for a result here, trying to shake off this terrible run they've been on.
They're running a three-man attack with Soumahoro, Remacle, and Mboyo leading the charge.
In their first meeting earlier this season, Atlanta lost 0-2 at home.
I'm just hoping both sides find some rhythm today and actually put some balls in the net... more than usual, anyway.

Patrick Wright2 said:LA Galaxy vs. LAFC 1 @2.55

So I'm looking at tomorrow's matchup where they've got the Galaxy sitting at 2.55 against LAFC. 😲

It’s probably because they just took a massive hit losing 6-1 on the road against the Sounders last week, but honestly, these guys have been playing solid all season, especially when they're back home. They're sitting pretty in second place while LAFC is struggling down in ninth, and the Galaxy haven't lost a single game at home this year (W5 D1 L0, outscoring folks 13-5), whereas LAFC can't seem to find a win on the road (W0 D2 L4, scoring 4 and giving up 10). 🤷

I'd say taking the straight win is worth a shot, or if you're feeling cautious, just go with the 1X double chance at @1.40.

LA Galaxy - LAFC 0:1

What can I even say? 😳 I laid out all my reasoning right above, but clearly, the universe had other plans today. Next time I decide to break down a Major League Soccer game for you guys, I'll just tell you to skip the analysis, take your money, and go grab a steak instead.

Cardiff City vs. Crystal Palace: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75
Look, we’re looking at two teams that basically live and breathe high-scoring games—their stats regarding goal averages and total matches played are just screaming "over"...
Both sides have been absolute entertainers so far; they've only had 7 low-scoring grinders, while 16 of their matches have flown past the over line...
It’s a massive showdown too—top-of-the-table Cardiff taking on Palace, who are sitting pretty in 3rd. Basically a huge rivalry match here.
The numbers don't lie, either. The home side is rocking a 44:28 goal difference—that's an average of 3.1 goals per game—and the visitors are right there with them at 44:29, also averaging 3.1 goals per match.
Palace has been scoring on the road in 10 of their 11 away trips. Their only shutout was a boring 0:0 against Hull City.
And Cardiff? They haven't failed to find the back of the net in any of their 11 home games this season.
When these two met earlier this season down in London, it was a wild one—Palace took it 3:2 in a total thriller.

Barnsley vs. Birmingham: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85
Man, the injury list for the visitors is absolutely ridiculous right now...
They're missing big names like King, Lovenkrands, Spector, Carr, Asante, Ambrose, Murphy, Caddis, and Diop. It’s a mess.
And don't think the home side is any better off—they're out without striker Davies, midfielder Mellis, plus Noble-Lazarus, Sinclair, and Buszaky.
I really don't see any kind of high-octane, clinical football happening here. Plus, the weather was crap—pouring rain—so the pitch conditions aren't exactly helping anyone play pretty soccer.
Historically this season, both teams have leaned heavily toward the under side...
Barnsley has seen under 2.5 goals in 14 of their 23 matches—only Charlton has actually hit more unders than that (15), while Birmingham sits at 12 unders in 23 games.
If you look at the over/under ratios, they're pretty much neck-and-neck, but today I'm leaning hard toward the under. This one should be a low-scoring affair...

Roger Phillips said:MLS matchup: LA Galaxy vs FC Cincinnati, over 2.5 goals at 1.80

Final Score 3:0

Roger Phillips said:MLS matchup: Seattle Sounders vs NYCFC, over 2.5 goals at 1.80

Final Score 1:0

Roger Phillips said:MLS matchup: LAFC vs Atlanta United, over 2.5 goals at 1.75

Final Score 2:1

Roger Phillips said:MLS matchup: Columbus Crew vs Portland Timbers, under 2.5 goals at 1.85

Final Score 1:2

🤷