Soccer Betting

My picks for today:

Sheriff - Dinamo FC 1 @ 3.00

Sheriff isn't a pushover—they knocked Dinamo out a few years back, we all know the drill, blah, blah...
Word is they’re looking solid again this year; some even say they've improved since their last run.
On the other hand, Dinamo is struggling—desperate, really. They barely scraped by against those Bulgarians, and even in the MLS, they aren't nearly the dominant force they used to be.
Their play is sloppy, especially on the road. They lack any real rhythm, and in European competition, they couldn't hold their own against teams far inferior to Sheriff.
So, I'm backing the home side—though I honestly expected a slightly lower price, maybe around 0.30 or 0.40 less. 🤷

Slask - Helsingborgs: Helsingborgs to score @ 1.45

I happened to catch Slask playing a friendly against Bilbao about ten days ago, as well as their match against Buducnost. Against a modest Mexican side, they were lucky to escape—they squandered four or five sitters, and we all know how thin the talent pool is in Mexican club football.
Slask’s defense is shaky at best. Helsingborg, meanwhile, is in mid-season form, having already played 17 rounds of their domestic league.
They’ll find their openings tonight—and I suspect they'll convert at least one.

@ 4.35 SS 1/10

Athletic B - Slaven

Javi Martinez, Iker Muniain and Ander Herrera are away at the Olympics, Amorebieta is recovering from pelvic surgery, and Mikel San Jose is getting over the chicken pox.

They’re missing some huge pieces for Athletic B. Plus, their season doesn't even start for another 17 days, so they’ll probably sleepwalk through this game against Slaven... honestly, I think it's worth a shot:

Slaven B. +2 @1,87 Bet 365
0:2/Athletic-Slaven x2@1,60 SS

Injuries & Absences:
Hertha BSC vs. Paderborn
Hertha BSC: Kraft, Franz, Janker, Kobiashvili, Radjabali-Fardi, Ben-Hatira, Rukavytsya, Lasogga
Paderborn: Burchert, Palionis, Wissing

Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Saarbrücken
Arminia Bielefeld: Heithölter (0/0)
1. FC Saarbrücken: Müller (0/0), Pellowski (0/0), Laux (0/0), Stiefler (0/0), Ziemer (1/1)

Dundalk FC vs. Cork City
Dundalk FC: Mountney (20/0), Walsh (both doubtful) (16/0), Osborne (9/0), Thomas (12/0), Burns (16/0), McLaughlin (12/0), McDonnell (18/0), Foran (17/0)
Cork City: Healy (17/0), McCarthy (both doubtful) (0/0), Lordan (3/0), Parker (2/0)

Athlone Town vs. Wexford Youths
Athlone Town: Danaher (6/0), McGee (14/7), Molloy (3/0), Rushe (9/0), Broughall (11/1), Relihan (5/2), Gaynor (0/0)
Wexford Youths: -

Finn Harps vs. SD Galway
Finn Harps: Bonner (11/0), Funston (1/0), Scoltock (all doubtful) (2/0), O’Donnell (2/0), Carlin (7/0), Curtis (11/2), McBride (13/3), O’Hagan (15/1)
SD Galway: Curran (18/5)

Club Tijuana vs. UNAM Pumas
Club Tijuana: Arce (2/1), Almazan (0/0), Ruiz (0/0), Santiago (0/0)
UNAM Pumas: Cabrera (0/0)

Houston Dynamo vs. New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo: -
New York Red Bulls: Barklage (16/2), McCarty (22/2)

Stade Lavallois vs. AS Monaco
Stade Lavallois: Badiane, Dreuslin, Perrot
AS Monaco: Dumont

Absences:
Portland Timbers v Orlando City
Portland Timbers: -
Orlando City: William, Almir, Pablo, Ronny

Atlanta United v CF Montréal
Atlanta United: Jorginho (doubtful)
CF Montréal: Boiadeiro, Everton Luiz, Ferreira, Rodriguinho, Gilberto, Adeílson, Dudu

Charlotte FC v LA Galaxy
Charlotte FC: -
LA Galaxy: Vlček, Hurka (both doubtful), Cicman, Dobrotka

Minnesota United v FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United: Ti. Lehtinen, Ylihärsilä, Jääskeläinen, Karjanlahti, Viljanen, Ylisen ja Teemu Penninkankaan
FC Cincinnati: Ojala

St. Louis City SC v Nashville SC
St. Louis City SC: Maier
Nashville SC: Erfen, Hein, Kurz, Müller

Real Salt Lake v Austin FC
Real Salt Lake: Becken, Eismann
Austin FC: Oumari, Ströhl, Baumgarten, Fillinger, Strangl

DC United v Columbus Crew
DC United: Rozeboom, Russell, Najar
Columbus Crew: Heinemann, Hesmer, Urso, Balchan, Anor, Vukovic, Grossman

Bryan Adams6 said:What makes them such a good pick? Just because of the odds?

Look, I know the Lakers can struggle against teams like the Warriors, but I still took the bet. Fingers crossed they don't let me down...

23,45 Los Angeles FC - San Jose Earthquakes

tip : Over 2.5 @ 1.55
BTTS & Over 2.5 @ 1.80

The home side... they're sitting at second in the MLS regular season for average goals per game (3.41), but honestly? They're currently bottom of the table. They shouldn't be staying down there for long. Even though their home games usually see fewer goals than their away trips, that 3.25 average still makes this pick look solid. At home, they've hit the over in 5 out of 8 matches, and all of those were high-scoring 3+ affairs. They've only failed to score in two home games, and coincidentally, they've been shut out in just two as well. In the league standings, they've only picked up 2 points from 4 matches, which is a disaster. They aren't happy, especially since they're leaking goals (6 scored, 10 conceded). They really need to start winning just to keep things peaceful at home... I mean, my wife would kill me if I kept losing bets on teams this bad. Anyway, today's opponent is one of those teams you can actually outplay. You'd expect three points here, so I'm anticipating an open game because, frankly, they have nothing left to lose.
San Jose, meanwhile, is sitting 4th in the MLS goal averages (3.35). They've started the season absolutely firing 😁 with 3 out of 4 matches hitting both BTTS and Over 2.5, and all of them were high scoring too... except for that one slip-up against Seattle where they tied 1-1 at home. Everything else has been pretty much what you'd expect. In the preseason, they were terrible visitors (or maybe good, depending on how you look at it 🤣)—only one win in 9 games and a goal difference of 8:20. Still, 5 of those 9 games went over. The only thing working against this bet is that they've only hit the "BTTS & 3+" combo in 3 games, and they failed to score in 4 of those 9 outings. Regardless, their current league form tells me to stick with the goals, even with that recent hiccup. Last time these two met with the venues swapped, San Jose walked away with a 3-1 win. Maybe we'll see a 2-2 draw today, who knows ☕

driftingcrane27 said:23.45 St. Louis City SC vs. LAFC

pick: (2.5) over @ 1.55 SS
both teams to score & 3+ goals @ 1.80 SS

1:1 Full Time 👎

driftingcrane27 said:1:1 FT 👎

I've been looking back through your posts, and honestly, you seem obsessed with betting the over on these Chilean teams. Most of your analyses end up being "both teams to score" anyway. Maybe it's just bad luck, but out of the last ten picks, I can only think of one that actually hit. You might want to stop forcing the overs if they aren't working for you.🤷

I can't help but wonder why the odds are sitting so high on 😕 a win for the underdog at 🤷
.

The matchup is Mladá Boleslav versus the visiting side from
.

Ethan Jones5 said:I’ve been looking back through your stuff and noticed you’re constantly betting on the over when it comes to these Chilean teams. Most of your picks end up being "both teams to score" calls. Maybe it’s just a fluke, but out of about ten games, I can only think of one where you actually hit. You might want to stop pushing the over so hard if that's the case.🤷

Look, I usually only play one or two games a week—just whatever looks solid to me, which I post here. 😁 I lean toward the over because a lot of the clubs down in South America play this super wide-open, aggressive style. Sometimes they hit enough goals to cover, and other times they just miss everything impossible and you get screwed... 🤣 That’s basically what happened yesterday. There were plenty of chances for an over, but it just didn't happen. My bad if anyone followed my lead and lost cash... thanks for the tip. 🙂 Today we're going after the money, though. Watching the game with the Argentinian side. 😁

Ethan Jones5 said:I’ve been looking back through your recent posts—and honestly, you seem to be leaning way too hard into the over betting on these Chilean matches. Most of your analyses end up with both teams scoring... maybe it's just a coincidence, but out of about ten picks, I can only think of one that actually hit. It might be better to stop forcing those high-scoring totals if they aren't panning out...🤷

I placed my bets on those specific outcomes yesterday—the lottery odds were sitting at 1.8, which actually puts them higher than the over/under lines at State Farm Arena...

00,30 University of Miami - Miami FC

tip : both sides 3+ @ 1.85 SS

Miami played a solid regular season during the Aperture phase—honestly, they finished undefeated at home with a ridiculous +16 goal differential... then came the playoffs where they got absolutely smoked in the quarterfinals by today's opponents. On paper, the scoreline looked okay (a 1-1 draw at home and a 0-3 loss away), but if you actually watched the game, Union should have walked away with a much bigger win based on how they controlled things... They kicked off this current season with a shock home loss against San Diego, though they managed to bounce back with two wins and a draw in the following rounds (that draw was a bit of a fluke since they conceded a late goal in the 90th minute)... Realistically, they've just been playing against bottom-tier teams up to this point, and today is their first actual litmus test against a side like Union... Even though they have a continental cup rematch coming up on August 9th against Blooming (first leg ended 1-1), I don't think their heads are anywhere else but on this match. It feels like they're looking for a little bit of sporting revenge after getting trampled in their last meeting... They haven't really shown enough defensive stability to make me feel confident they can secure all three points, and they tend to leak goals. Since they’ll likely play an aggressive style at home, I'm expecting Union to carve out plenty of chances...
Union, total over team 😁 Started this season right where they left off in the Aperture 🤣 Over the first four matches, they've got a 10:7 goal difference... They started shaky with a home draw and an away loss to LAFC, but they've been perfect in the two games since. They’re probably expecting this matchup to be a lot more controlled than the last one... But look, these guys can score against anyone, yet they give up goals to almost everyone 🤣. That's why I'm leaning towards a wide-open derby today with at least three goals and both teams finding the net... And honestly, with how heated these rivalries get, we might even see a red card ☕ just because things get spicy...

driftingcrane27 said:00:30 UCLA vs. San Jose State

my pick: both teams score + over 2.5 @ 1.85 SS

Ended 1:1 👎

Ethan Jones5 said:...most of your breakdowns suggest both sides find the net... so maybe stop forcing those overs if they aren't hitting...🤷

🙂

🤣

Injury Report:
Feyenoord vs. Dynamo Kyiv
Feyenoord: Goossens, Te Vrede, Schenkeveld
Dynamo Kyiv: Khacheridi, Shovkovsky, Almeida, Kravets, Taiwo

Debrecen VSC vs. BATE Borisov
Debrecen VSC: Varga, Selim Bouadla (questionable)
BATE Borisov: Shcherbakov, Filipenko, Likhtarovich

Horn vs. Austria Lustenau
Horn: Wojtanowicz (3/3 f), Salvatore (3/0 d), Pantic (suspended) (3/0 d)
Austria Lustenau: Boya (0/0 f)

Angers SCO vs. FC Nantes
Angers SCO: Boyer (2/0), Ravet (2/1), Manceau (2/0)
FC Nantes: Cissokho (2/0), Madouni (2/0), Touré (1/0), Bessat (2/0), Gakpé (1/0), Bangoura (1/0)

LB Châteauroux vs. Dijon FCO
LB Châteauroux: Dudouit (0/0), Bain (0/0)
Dijon FCO: Souprayen (1/0), Varrault (1/0), Corgnet (2/1), Jovial (2/1), Caceres (2/1)

Injuries:
Oberhausen vs. Velbert
Oberhausen: -
Velbert: Dietz, Gebauer, Ari, Nigbur, Janas

ASA vs. Guarani
The Guarani injury report is a total mess right now—ten players out!
ASA: Jorginho (12/0 m)
Guarani: Recife (14/1 d), Neto (6/0 d), Oziel (1/0 d), Monteiro (0/0 m), Sacramento (12/1 m), Ribeiro (6/1 m), Fabrício (0/0 m), Fumagalli (0/0 m), Thiaguinho (8/0 f), Mendes (1/0 f)

Odense BK vs. FC Midtjylland
Odense BK: -
FC Midtjylland: Janssen (3/2 f), Koch (0/0 d), Hassan (4/1 m), Haugaard (1/0 g), Madsen (0/0 m), Christensen (0/0 m)

Montpellier HSC vs. Toulouse FC
Montpellier HSC: Bocaly, Mounier, Belhanda, Estrada
Toulouse FC: -

Willem II Tilburg vs. NAC Breda
Willem II Tilburg: -
NAC Breda: Seuntjens, Zonneveld, Edwards, Leugers

Drogheda Utd vs. Bohemians FC
Drogheda Utd: -
Bohemians FC: Byrne (12/0 d) (doubtful), O’Connor (7/0 m), Mulcahy (15/0 m), Scully (10/0 m)

Shelbourne FC vs. UCD Dublin
Shelbourne FC: -
UCD Dublin: Kelly (2/0 g), Rusk (13/7 f), O’Halloran (0/0 d), Mulhall (7/0 m), Morrison (9/1 d)

Consadole Sapporo vs. Vegalta Sendai
Consadole Sapporo: Ho Seung (10/0 g), Kushibiki (5/0 d), Takaki (14/2 m), Arano (1/0 m), Maeda (13/1 f), Sakaki (5/0 f)
Vegalta Sendai: Kakuda (17/0 d), Tomita (17/2 m)

Sandefjord vs. Mjondalen IF
Sandefjord: Bindia (10/1 d)
Mjondalen IF: Kirkevold (16/6 f), Strange (13/2 d), Boldt (0/0 d), Bernstein (14/0 d), Rønningen (15/2 d)

Gefle IF vs. Djurgårdens IF
Gefle IF: Mård (14/0 d) (doubtful), Oremo (12/0 f)
Djurgårdens IF: Östberg (0/0 d) (newcomer), Riddez (2/0 d), Broberg (3/0 f), Rajalakso (15/1 m), Pedersen (10/1 d)

I usually steer clear of those tiny odds, but if anyone’s looking for a quick leg for their parlay, I’d say go with Inter Miami to win at 1.45

Most people think they're the only squad capable of actually shaking things up against Inter Miami right now, but honestly, I don't see them having much of a shot today. They're dealing with a massive injury bug, so Inter Miami shouldn't have any trouble handling whatever they throw at them... Plus, they’ve got a brutal matchup coming up next week against Atlanta United, a team they haven't managed to beat once in the last two years. In a different scenario, maybe a draw or an away win would be worth considering, but today I'm sticking with the home win. And hey, even though this team hasn't won at the stadium yet, every streak eventually breaks somewhere...

Grasshoppers - Servette........1 (1.95)

Man, has it finally happened? Is it actually time for Grasshoppers to beat Servette on their own turf after ten long years? I really think it is!
If you take a look at this incredibly young Grasshopper squad—and man, how they've been playing since the season kicked off—it’s obvious they are absolutely fired up for every single match. Especially today... this feels like a little local derby or something.
After that first hiccup losing to Sion (who, if you ask me, are basically the powerhouse of the league alongside maybe the Yankees of soccer), they bounced right back with an away win against the Young Boys! Then they grabbed a draw at home against Basel, followed by another tie against a super solid, in-form St. Gallen... honestly, everyone at the club is just itching for that first home win today.
Now, Servette? That’s a totally different story. They’re sitting dead last. This is actually their third game in just ten days because of that UEFA tournament grind—they're exhausted from getting knocked out. They've been playing pretty rough lately, and against a motivated, high-flying Grasshoppers side, I just don't see them having a prayer.
The Grasshoppers front office even threw in some free tickets for the fans today, so we're expecting a packed house!

Salzburg - Rapid..........1 (2.00)

Okay, Salzburg has definitely moved past that whole "Dudelange" disaster!
Since they don't really have anything else to play for right now, the domestic league is officially their number one priority.
Motivation should be sky-high for both sides, but my money is on Salzburg taking this one.
I'm basing this pick purely on watching Rapid's last two games and seeing Salzburg's recent run in the league (3-0-0).
Rapid actually got hammered by Vojvodina, but they just got unlucky in that matchup. Given that the Salzburg fans haven't forgotten the Dudelange embarrassment, anything less than a win is going to be unacceptable for them. And considering how they've been playing lately, this pick feels like a lock to me.

Vojvodina - Smederevo...............1 (1.45)

Like I mentioned earlier, I caught the Vojvodina vs. Rapid game... they are a really sharp team, always running, fighting for every single ball.
Meanwhile, Smederevo is in a bit of a jam—some administrative red tape means five of their summer signings won't be eligible to play.
Vojvodina is also doing the free entry thing for their supporters today, so expect a huge crowd and a big win to kick off the season against a weakened Smederevo.

Hibernian - Hearts..............2 (2.20)

The talent gap between these two has favored Hearts for years, but it feels even wider this season... though, I have to admit, the odds on this one are what's pulling me in. I was expecting something closer to 1.85.
I mean, sure, they're playing in Scotland... but hey, 2.20? I'm not passing that up.

________________________________________

12:44 PM

Cheers!

6:00 PM, Aves vs. Trofense, pick: 1 @ 1.50, FanDuel

Man, Trofense is basically running on fumes right now. They’re dealing with some serious money issues, and it’s hit them hard—they've lost so many players that they’ve only got about 19 guys left on the roster. And the kicker? Almost everyone who walked out the door was a core starter.

Just look at the exodus we're talking about here: their starting keeper Marco, Elvis in defense, L. Santos, Santos, Carvalhas, Crivellaro, Bruno, Dinis in the midfield, plus Feliz and Gilmar up front, not to mention Reguila, who was easily their go-to guy with 27 goals.

When you see a list of departures that long, it’s pretty obvious Trofense is looking at a massive uphill battle just to stay afloat in the league this season.

On the flip side, Aves is looking solid as ever; they’ve kept their squad tight and definitely have the firepower to be fighting for a spot in the top 5.

These two actually crossed paths back in July during a cup match where Aves absolutely dismantled them 5-1. Honestly, seeing how lopsided things are right now, I’m expecting a total repeat of that blowout. I’m leaning heavily toward a dominant win for Aves today.

Absences:
Club Brugge vs. Anderlecht
Club Brugge: Mertens, Hendrickx
Anderlecht: Cyriac, Lukaku, Suarez, Reynaldo

Pribram vs. Mlada Boleslav
Pribram: None
Mlada Boleslav: Magera (questionable), Chramosta, Janíček, Kulič, Rolko, Smejkal, Štohanzl, Fabián, Zahustel

Stade Reims vs. Olympique Marseille
Stade Reims: Peuget
Olympique Marseille: Diawara, Rémy, N’Diaye, Mbia, Amalfitano

IFK Göteborg vs. Mjällby AIF
IFK Göteborg: Jónsson
Mjällby AIF: Nilsson, Radetinac, Fejzullahu, Kivuvu, Berner, Wikström, Dahlström, Nilsson

Joshua Bailey21 said:Hibernian vs. Hearts..............2 (2.20)

The quality gap between these two has favored Hearts for years—and it’s even wider this season. I'm drawn to the odds here; I was expecting something closer to 1.85.
They're Scottish, sure... but at 2.20? I'm not passing that up.

I don't follow the Scottish leagues and I know next to nothing about these two sides—all I know is they're both from Edinburgh and it's a massive derby because Hibernian is Catholic and Hearts is Protestant.
If I recall correctly, I read that it's a high-tension, high-emotion match—something akin to the Celtics vs. Lakers rivalry, just played at a lower level.