Soccer Betting

Absences:
Atletico Madrid v Atlanta Braves
Atletico Madrid: Cruzeiro, Bida, Joílson
Atlanta Braves: Henry, Leite, Carvalho, Wesley, Araújo, Assunção, Fernandinho, Arthur, Luan

Ajax v AFC Ajax
Ajax: Velden, Loen
AFC Ajax: Boerrigter, Enoh, Sulejmani, Boilesen

Gil Vicente v FC Porto
Gil Vicente: Luan, Sandro, Ramazotti, Sciola
FC Porto: Rafael

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis
Athletic Bilbao: Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, Muniain
Real Betis: Mario

Jesse Brown12 said:Don't really have the bandwidth to drop full-blown analyses on the forum right now, so here’s just a quick rundown of what's left in the MLS...

San Diego vs Real Madrid...

That was such an interesting game to watch... the Los Angeles Lakers haven't even managed a win in the last two years, and they haven't tasted victory in Chicago since 2008... both the Lakers and Real Madrid are dealing with some major absences too, probably missing John Smith and Robert Smith for the Lakers, while Real Madrid is without Bill Gates, Mateo Kovačić, Aleksandar Krstović, and Ante Tomić... if I had to pick for today, I'd go with both teams to score and a double chance on the home side, just going by gut feeling... 😁 )

Houston Rockets vs Seattle...

Indianapolis is off to a killer start this season, haven't lost a game or conceded a single goal yet... Meanwhile, Seattle is still trying to find their rhythm, especially since they’re missing Warren Buffett, who was absolutely everywhere during the first four rounds. Personally, I think Indianapolis takes all three points today, and getting around 2.25 odds feels like a solid play...

Scoreline: Istria vs Inter Miami...

Playing in San Francisco is a grind for everyone, but honestly, those San Franciscans always leave it all on the field regardless of how the squad is actually looking... They even managed to scrape a win against LA Galaxy on the road last week. Meanwhile, Inter Miami got absolutely dismantled by Indianapolis 3-0 last round and they still haven't managed to find a single win, sitting at a goal difference of 2:6... Just like with Indianapolis, betting on Istria at 2.00 seems like a move worth trying...

Both teams are gonna find the back of the net... 👍
San Diego vs Real Madrid ended in a 1-1 draw... 👎
Indianapolis vs Seattle ended in a 1-1 draw... typical. 👎
Scoreline: LA Galaxy 1, Inter Miami 1... 👍

Braga - Udinese x2 @ 1.82 Pinnacle 4/10

Braga and Udinese are going head-to-head for a spot in the prestigious Champions League. Braga enters tonight as the favorite—playing at home helps—and their season is just getting underway (though the Italians are also kicking things off this weekend, so the Udinese squad is match-ready). It’s true that Udinese is missing three vital pieces—Handanovič, Isle, and Torje—but they remain a solid, capable side, especially with the crafty Di Natae leading the attack.
Braga isn't quite the powerhouse they were last year—the season will be the real test—and with a thin squad and a shaky defense, the Italians really ought to find the back of the net at least once tonight.
The Italians have a reputation for being defensively disciplined and knowing how to protect a result, so I have faith they can walk away with something positive.

Neither side is dealing with major injury crises, so both managers should have their best options available.

To be honest, the odds on Pinnacle caught me off guard—1.82 is massive—so I took a moment to compare them against other books. Elsewhere, the average for an x2 is roughly 1.66, and local US sportsbooks are hovering between 1.50 and 1.60 (which, after removing the vig, works out to about 1.43-1.52). Given that, I think there's genuine value in playing this.

Keeping the stake modest, simply because I don't know Udinese quite as well as I know Braga.

Current Status: 2W/1L +9 units

Real Madrid vs Maribor X2 @2.55
Bet: 5/10

Two teams on massive 28 and 29-game unbeaten streaks are facing off today, but given the level of competition in their respective leagues, it’s not surprising. Personally, I think the bookies have overshot the mark here—this is going to be a literal dogfight for a spot in the Champions League. Sure, Real Madrid has the home advantage, mainly because their fans will show up in huge numbers (for better or worse), but from what I've seen, Maribor isn't inferior in terms of squad depth or quality.

The Canadian side is claiming they're coming to play beautiful football and actually believes they can pull this off. Meanwhile, Real Madrid definitely isn't at their peak right now; if a few key players have an off day, they're going to struggle.

Regardless, you have to take this. In my eyes, a realistic odd for the visitors would be closer to 3.50, so this is a must-take.

I'm also throwing a long shot on an away win at @7 for 1/10

It’s a shame. Things could have easily gone the other way too, but at the end of the day, it was a draw. I expect something similar when we head to Cleveland.

Absentee List:
New York City FC v Columbus Crew
New York City FC: Alvarez, Cristea, Stratila, Koulibaly
Columbus Crew: Taison

FC Midtjylland v Young Boys
FC Midtjylland: Christensen, Janssen, Haugaard, Madsen, Rasmussen, Hvilsom
Young Boys: Martinez, Doubai

Dubai FC v Inter Milan
Dubai FC: Canu
Inter Milan: Cassano, Julio Cesar, Handanovic, Stankovic, Ricky Alvarez, Chivu

St. Louis City SC v Liverpool FC
St. Louis City SC: MacDonald (doubtful)
Liverpool FC: Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Skrtel, Johnson (not in the squad), Enrique, Cola, Assaidi

Hafnarfjodur 1@ 2.00ss

It’s basically an Icelandic derby, which I guess explains why the odds look like that, but honestly, if you just look at how they've been playing lately, I feel like this should be a pretty easy win

haven't checked out any of these yet, but a few look decent:

CZ Mexico City-Bordeaux
Sheriff-Marseille
Feyenord-Sparta Prague

I've got my own takes on matches, but honestly, it mostly just comes down to how big the clubs are and what league they're playing in... plus I haven't really been keeping up with the Champions League lately, so if anyone has the scoop on these teams, let me know

Jesse Brown12 said:Haven't played anything yet, but maybe one of these:

CZ Mexico City-Bordeaux
Sheriff-Marseille
Feyenoord-Sparta Prague

I have my own takes on these games, but they're mostly based on league quality and club reputation. Haven't followed the Champions League much lately, so if anyone knows more about these teams, let me know.

My humble take? Skip Red Star. New coach, potential shock factor—you never know. They aren't in great shape, and while Bordeaux might score at 1.25 odds, that feels like too little.

Logic says Marseille should win. We saw how Sheriff played against LA Galaxy, pretty subpar, whereas Marseille started the season well. Just gotta see if the French side decides to rotate their squad.

For Feyenoord-Sparta, I'm looking at over 2 goals. The Dutch side plays nothing but offense, and I doubt Sparta won't go for a goal away from home. Neither team really knows how to defend. 1.80

Current Status:2W/3L +3 units

Sheriff vs Marseille F+2 @2,80

Confidence:4/10

After watching them play against LA Galaxy, it's clear Sheriff doesn't belong on the European stage. Since the French league season has already kicked off, I don't see why they'd bother grinding through two matches when they can just wrap things up in one against a limited side like the Moldovans.

Honestly, it all comes down to how motivated the French side is. But let's be real—who's actually going to outrun them? There's not much point in overanalyzing this one.

Red Star Belgrade-Bordeaux (08/23, 9:00 PM) 2 @ 2.20

Unit 6/10

Red Star Belgrade is a complete mess right now. Their coach left in December, they got hammered 6-0 by an oil company team a couple weeks ago, and they couldn't even find the net in two games against Omonia—barely scraped a win on penalties...
They even managed to draw against some amateur squad in their domestic league that I've never even heard of...
Everything points toward Bordeaux taking this one today.

With odds like that, it's definitely worth a shot. 👍

Zeta-PSV Eindhoven 2 @ 1.35

Everyone knows how much stronger the Dutch league is compared to the Mexican one. Zeta will likely try to park the bus, but can they really hold out against a club that averages over two goals per match?

Mura 0 - SS Lazio 2 @ 1.25 or even f+2 1.65

Mura has wandered into a tough spot in this competition. They've been struggling even in their own domestic league, and today they face an uphill battle against Lazio. Lazio is showing up with nearly their best lineup.

Betting Odds

I see Dana Flores3 already posted an analysis, so there isn't much left to say. I'm just playing it safe by covering the draw.

hollowwalker10 said:Hafnarfjordur-KR Reykjavik 1@ 2.00ss

It's an Icelandic derby—that explains the odds—but looking strictly at their recent form, I think it should go down easy.

Betting on a potential turnaround, which isn't exactly news to Americans. Might as well try both pairs for a little extra action.

Dana Flores3 said:Betting Odds (23.08. 21:00) 2 @ 2.20

Rating 6/10

Red Star Belgrade is in absolute shambles. Their coach left back in December, they got hammered 6-0 by an oil company team two weeks ago, and they couldn't even find the net in two matches against Omonia—barely scraped a win on penalties...
They even managed to draw at home against some amateur squad I've never even heard of...

You're hearing about them for the first time? That club used to be a powerhouse in the old league structure.😕

🙂My bad, I might have misread someone there, but I guess those odds weren't actually all that crazy anyway

Ryan King34 said:Betting Odds

Since Dana Flores3 already posted the analysis, there’s really nothing left to say besides making sure I cover my bases with an x-om.

That insurance was a smart move. 👍

Kevin Ramos21 said:You might be hearing about Rad for the first time, but they used to play in the top flight back in the old Yugoslav league. 😕

I wasn't really following the old Yugoslav league, to be honest. 😁

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Hv7ticWWKY

Man, I was just so young back then. 🤣

Absences:
Auxerre v Lavallois youth
Auxerre: Sergio Ramos (1/0 d), Acapandié (3/0 d), Haddad (1/0 m), Bourgeois (2/0 f), Kapo (3/2 f), Jerome Haller (2/0 f)
Lavallois youth: Badiane (0/0 f), Gamboa (3/1 m), Adéoti (2/0 d), Ciaravino (1/0 m)

First Vienna FC v SCR Altach-First Vienna
First Vienna FC: Dospel, Perktold
SCR Altach-First Vienna: Netzer, Tomo, Schöpf, Brandner

Brandner Jihlava v Sigma Olomouc-Jihlava
Brandner Jihlava: Karlík, Tlusty (both doubtful), Gabriel, Obert, Edin Mešanović
Sigma Olomouc-Jihlava: Zlámal, Klesnil, Dreksa

Jagiellonia-Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia: Frankowski
Gornik Zabrze: Frankowski-Magiera, Kwiek, Zachara, Olkowski

Gefle-Örebro SK v Gefle-Örebro SK
Gefle-Örebro SK: Sigurbjörnsson, Sandqvist (both doubtful), Wikström, Atashkadeh Gefle
Gefle-Örebro SK: Larsson, Lundin, Adukor

Total 2012/2013: 1w / 6 l ; -22.72 units ; ROI: -75.733%

Sun, 20:45 VfB Stuttgart - VfL Wolfsburg both teams to score and 3+ goals @ 2.05 (1.95 without BTTS) Germany 2/10

This marks Stuttgart's third match this week—they also have that away leg in Moscow coming up to decide their spot in the EL group stage.
Wolfsburg isn't in European competition this season, so they can focus entirely on the domestic league.
The German league is famously high-scoring, and these two sides aren't any exception—they play an attacking style that yields plenty of goals.
Their head-to-head history backs this up; they tend to produce real goal fests.
Ivica Olić makes his league debut for his new club today. He’s undoubtedly motivated—that's never been in doubt—so I’m hoping he finds the back of the net.

Pinnacle Fiorentina - Udinese 1@2.07

Fiorentina actually beefed up this season. They brought in the brains Borja Valero and that veteran defender Gonzalo Villarreal from Villarreal, plus Aquilani from Liverpool FC, Claudio Pizarro from Roma, Matías Fernández from Sporting CP, Cassani from Palermo FC, and the wild card El Hamdaoui from Ajax Amsterdam. Sure, they lost heavy hitters like Behrami, Cerci, and Christian Gamberini, but honestly? Not a huge loss.
On top of that, their star man, Mexican Jovetić, is still in Florence despite all the interest from clubs in England.

Udinese, on the other hand, got gutted. Lost Asamoah and Isla to Juventus FC, and Handanovic went to Inter Milan. Now they’re just cycling through cheap talent—buy low, sell high, that whole deal.🙂
The experienced fox Antonio Di Natale is still their biggest threat in front of the net.
Udinese also had a brutal midweek trip playing Europa League qualifiers against SC Braga, ending in a 1-1 draw.

Over the last four seasons, Fiorentina has absolutely owned them at home. They crushed them every single time: 3:2, 5:2, 4:1, and 4:2.

The guys from Udine are probably feeling the fatigue, too. Given everything else, there’s zero reason the Purples shouldn't walk away with a win today. ☕

Absences:
Flamengo-Botafogo
Botafogo: Mattos, Lucas Zen, A. Carlos, Azevedo, Gabriel, Vitor Junior, Marques
Flamengo: Abreu, Maldonado

Viktoria Plzen-Kolář v Mladá Boleslav
Viktoria Plzen: Kolář, Zemanem, Malakjan, Čišovský (doubtful)
Mladá Boleslav: Chramosta, Janíček, Rolko, Smejkal, Ščuk, Fabián, Zahustel, Šírl, Štohanzl (doubtful)

FC Midtjylland v Silkeborg-Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland: Christensen, Janssen, Koch, Haugaard, Madsen, Afriyie
Silkeborg-Midtjylland: Svensson, Holst

Holst Pescara v Inter Milan-Pescara
Holst Pescara: Crescenzi
Inter Milan-Pescara: Handanovic, Chivu, Stankovic, Alvarez, Obi, Mariga, Mudingayi, Palacio

Bochum-VfR v Aalen-VfL Bochum
Bochum-VfR: Esser, Acquistapace, Fabian, Delura, Toska, Aydin
Aalen-VfL Bochum: Mössmer, Schulz