Soccer Betting

Joshua Garcia8 said:edit:
that odds is way too low for over 3.5 goals 🤷

James Taylor3 said:Look, I get it, they're Dutch and games go crazy there, but these odds for over 3.5 goals are absolute garbage. 🤷

last 4 games
stop overthinking it and just place the bet before the odds tank like they do at DraftKings ☕

Injury Report:
Liverpool vs. Arsenal
Liverpool: Cole, Lucas
Arsenal: Frimpong, Rosicky, Sagna, Wilshere, Szczesny (questionable)

Regensburg vs. Bochum
Regensburg: Kurz
Bochum: Esser, Acquistapace, Fabian, Delura, Toski

PSV vs. AZ Alkmaar
PSV: Pieters
AZ Alkmaar: Messaoud, Ortiz, Lewis, Gudmundsson, Martens, Lam

Lech Poznan vs. Gornik Zabrze
Lech Poznan: None
Gornik Zabrze: Olkowski, Jonczyk, Magiera, Nowak, Mączyński

Hearts vs. Dundee
Hearts: None
Dundee: Riley, Bendictus, Stewart, Toshney, McBride, Finnigan

Beira Mar vs. Moreirense — Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | Pinnacle | 5/10

Beira Mar’s defense is a disaster—I’ve said it before. They gave up six goals in just the first two weeks; honestly, they could have easily conceded two or three more. The backline looks lost, making constant unforced errors and poor decisions, compounded by a goalkeeper who lacks any real confidence.
Then you have the newly promoted Moreirense. In their opening two matches, they’ve displayed some genuinely sharp, attacking football. They play aggressively and clearly have zero respect for anyone on the pitch. Of course, that high-octane style leaves them wide open at the back—opponents capitalized on that with single goals in both opening rounds—but their offensive flow is impressive. It's great tactical movement. For instance, last week they dismantled Nacional 3-1, leading 3-0 and hitting the woodwork a couple of times alongside several other clear chances.
I think Moreirense might actually walk away with a win today. Beira Mar is simply subpar right now—they aren't playing cohesive football—and they’re missing key pieces: striker Abel Camara, who found the net in week one, and Balboa, who is a solid contributor for them.
Moreirense, meanwhile, is at full strength with no injury concerns. They’ve even bolstered the squad recently, bringing in a new defender and a midfielder named Renatinho on loan from Palmeiras, who should be a significant upgrade.

I'm also looking at this: Beira Mar vs. Moreirense — Away Win | 3.04 | Pinnacle | 2/10

James Taylor3 said:No way they’d play at those low odds. Total joke.
Without any adjustments, it’s 2.09, but look—it’s sitting at 2.28 on DraftKings, and honestly, even that feels too low.

They’re basically just betting on the Barca overs, like a 1.30 for over 2.5.

Moved some posts over from the chat thread.

Pacos Ferreira - Braga 2 1,91 bet365 4/10

Pacos is also looking thin heading into this season—they’re missing Melgareja and Michel, their two standout players from last year, both of whom moved back to Benfica. Interestingly, Michel is actually in town today; he joined via the Lime transfer from Braga to Benfica, so there's a chance that striker might face his old club.
While losing Lime definitely weakens Braga—he really was their best asset—the new Michel and the physical Eder are solid forwards. Combined with Alan, Ruben Michel, Hugo Viana, Barbosa, and the rest, they remain a legitimate threat to any defense. Barbosa, a lightning-fast winger/forward who can be a bit selfish at times, returns to the squad today. He's an excellent player regardless. Braga is largely complete, save for the defender Haas, who hasn't seen any action this season due to injury. As for Pacos, they haven't looked particularly sharp in their first two matches—their defense has too many gaps for a quality side to ignore, and Braga sits comfortably within the top tier of the league. To make matters worse, Pacos is missing a key starting midfielder who picked up a red card in the last match.
Braga has had a busy stretch lately—navigating Champions League qualifiers and playing a grueling 120 minutes in Udine on Tuesday—but I wouldn't say they're overly fatigued. It's still early in the season, and the manager has been rotating the roster; they even rested five starters in their last league match and still cruised to a win.
I believe Braga is the far superior side and will secure a victory tonight, even without Lime.

MLS:
LAFC–Seattle Sounders 1 1.55
LAFC has been absolutely tearing it up lately—looking at their last 4 or 5 matches, they're basically unstoppable.
They’re riding a three-game winning streak where they dropped 11 goals and only let in 2... just clinical.
Meanwhile, Seattle can't seem to find a win on the road. They're heading into a brutal away game and honestly, things look messy for them.
With their main playmaker gone, the squad feels totally rudderless—just no direction or tactical identity left—plus they're missing two massive pillars in the midfield, Mike Jensen and Frank Semoua.
The home side has a huge edge here... they're well-rested, don't have any major injuries to worry about, they've got the better roster, more experience, and they're playing on that fast turf.

Premier League

Aston Villa–Everton 1 2.10
Villa managed to keep their core group together from last season, so they'll likely be fighting for those top spots again.
Last round in London, they conceded a late one to end in a 2-2 draw, but they actually played well enough to earn that point.
Everton, on the other hand, were barely hanging on for dear life against relegation last year.
They might even be a step worse this season compared to the last, though they did manage to scrape a 2-0 home win against Cagliari in the opener.
They lost Palacio, Constant, Ze Eduardo, and Mesto... quite a few key pieces gone.
On the bright side, Gilardino is finally back in the lineup after his suspension, which helps.
I'm expecting a strong showing from the home side since they're clearly the superior team, especially playing at home (they had a solid 9-5-5 record there last season) against a squad that was absolute garbage on the road last year (a pathetic 2-3-14 away record).
The value here is definitely worth a look.

3.25

4:00 PM, Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders, pick: Home Win @ 1.56 FanDuel

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/Sport/Fo...en-harder.html

Seattle Sounders: It looks like they're going to be pretty shorthanded, with guys like Kyle Benedictus, Neil McGregor, Lewis Toshney, Stephen O'Donnell, Nicky Riley, Carl Finnegan, Mark Stewart, Kevin McBride, and Jamie McCluskey likely sitting this one out due to injuries.

Coach Smith put it bluntly: 'It’s a total nightmare. I honestly can't remember ever dealing with an injury list this long. Having nine players out is basically losing half my roster, leaving me with only 12 healthy starters, and even those guys are nursing some bumps and bruises.

''It really feels like everything that could possibly go sideways is happening all at once, but we aren't going to sit around feeling sorry for ourselves. We just have to dig deep and get the job done.

''We aren't looking for excuses here, and I know the guys who are ready to play are going to head over to Portland and leave it all out on the field.''

Personally, I think Portland should totally capitalize on this mess and walk away with a massive win.

Roger Phillips said:MLS

LAFC vs. Atlanta United 1 2,10
LAFC kept basically the same core from last season, so they’ll probably be fighting for those top playoff spots again.
Last week in DC, they conceded a late one to draw 2-2, but honestly, they played well enough to earn that point.
Atlanta barely escaped relegation last season.
The squad might actually be worse this year than it was last, but hey, they managed to pull off a 2-0 home win against Portland in the opener.
They lost Palacio, Constant, Ze Eduardo, and Mesto.
On the bright side, Gilardino is coming back after his suspension.
I’m expecting a solid performance from the home side since they’re the better team, playing at home (they went 9-5-5 last season) against a squad that was absolute garbage on the road last year (2-3-14 away record).
The value is totally there.

I gotta correct you on a few things there. Gilardino moved on to Bologna, and if we're talking real losses, losing Palacio—who was their guy last season—and Biondini, who worked his tail off every single game, hurts way more. Mesto was just mediocre at best, and Ze Eduardo barely saw any minutes last year... And I wouldn't say the transfers were all bad either: Merkel, Immobile, Canini... I think they'll turn out fine.

I won't comment on Tip 1, though I hate to admit you're right that LAFC are slight favorites. 😉

Roger Phillips said:MLS:
FC Dallas–LA Galaxy 1 1.55
Dallas has been looking sharp over their last 4-5 matches.
They’re sitting on a three-game win streak—scored 11, gave up only 2.
The Galaxy haven't picked up an away win yet. They're heading into a tough road trip with plenty of baggage.
With their main playmaker gone, the squad feels rudderless—just no direction or clear vision right now. Plus, they're missing two key midfielders, Mike Jensen and Frank Semou.
Big edge for the home side here. They're rested, relatively healthy, clearly the better roster, and they have the home-field advantage.

Major League Soccer

Atlanta United-Inter Miami 1 2.10
Atlanta kept most of last year's core together—they'll likely be fighting for playoff spots again.
Last round in D.C., they conceded a late one to draw 2-2. Played well enough; earned the point.
Miami barely avoided relegation last season.
The roster might actually be weaker this year, though they did manage a 2-0 home win against Cagliari in the opener.
Lost Palacio, Constant, Ze Eduardo, and Mesto.
Silver lining: Gilardino is back from suspension.
Expecting a solid performance from the home team. They're the superior side, playing at home (last season's record was 9-5-5) against a team that struggled miserably on the road last year (2-3-14).
Value is decent.

Draw 3.25

And handsome Marco is back.

Roger Phillips said:Major League Soccer:
LAFC–Seattle Sounders 1 1,55

MLS

Atlanta United–Inter Miami 1 2,10

Total miss on both—LAFC couldn't pull it off.

Later I went solo on Atlanta and somehow, against all odds, scraped a 3:2 win🙂
They were down 0:1 early, managed a quick comeback, and then—just when you think it's over—Jankovic pulls it back to 2:2 with maybe 7 or 8 minutes left on the clock. Man, my heart was racing... I honestly thought we were done for...
Then Slobodnjak sets up Lodi to bury the winner, though the visitors did hit the woodwork later on...
But damn, that second half was absolute gold!😉

Joshua Garcia8 said:In stock. 🤣
I just need the ones that actually work. 🙂 Looking good so far.
The Dutch giants. Honestly, just massive.AZ Alkmaar (Sept 2nd, 2:30 PM) — Taking the home win at 1.50. Simple enough.
Both played on August 30th. Alkmaar got absolutely demolished at home, and PSV just cruised through them with a massive blowout. Away from home, they’re a total disaster, but at their own stadium? PSV is unstoppable.

The big club in Istanbul. Hard to miss them.Bursaspor vs. [Local Team Name] (Sept 2, 7:30 PM) — Betting on a home win at 1.50. Let's see if my luck holds up.
They played those UEFA qualifiers on August 30th and went all the way to extra time. That’s gotta take a toll. No way they've fully recovered in just two days. Plus, they're terrible on the road compared to how they play at home.

This looks pretty good to me, too. SteauaBukThe odds on Oțelul Galați being at 1.50? Maybe. Only the Stars played all 30 minutes, but I doubt they burned much fuel. Could’ve just been a decent little warmup for them. 🤷

It’s all over. And I actually came out ahead. 🙂 Bottom line—don't overthink it. Just put the money down and see what happens.

Joshua Garcia8 said:Everything's over, and I got nothing 🙂 bottom line - stop overthinking it, just place the bet and deal with the fallout later.

If everything's gone, how the hell did you "get nothing"? 🤷

Bryan Adams6 said:What do you mean you didn't get anything if EVERYTHING already went through? 🤷

Since you're calling me out... I didn't put in that much, but I did add one of your pairs. 😛🙂

Joshua Garcia8 said:Since you’re already coming for me... because I didn't pay up enough, I went ahead and added one of your pairs 😛🙂

Maybe you mean Real Madrid? 🤷

😁

Hello there.

John Doe and Stabæk both failing to score: No at 2.15 (SS)

This is the first play today that actually caught my eye. You have the worst offense facing one of the most disciplined defenses out there. Stabæk has been abysmal at home lately; they’ve managed only 8 goals in their last ten appearances, which puts them well under an average of one goal per match. Honestly, I struggle to see how they find a way through a John Doe side that is steadily finding its rhythm again. Besides, given the quality of this pick, the odds are just too good to pass up...

Good luck to everyone.

Gerald Garcia9 said:Hey!

Stabauer-Rosenberg both teams to score - NO at 2.15 (SS)

First one I've noticed today. Worst offense meets the best defense. Stabauer is absolute trash at home; they've only scored 8 goals in their last ten games, which is less than one per match. Honestly don't see how they crack a Rosenberg side that's finally finding its rhythm. Plus, the odds are way too good for a pick like this.

Good luck!

if you really think Stabauer can't score, wouldn't it make more sense to just bet on that? the odds for that are 2.5 in SS...

I hit the Union Berlin vs. Hertha 2/1 parlay at 31 odds

Union Berlin has to win today. When you have a home team under massive pressure to perform against a technically superior visitor, these types of upsets happen all the time.
Union is sitting on just one point. It's time for them to wake up. Hertha has been solid enough at home, but they dropped a 3-1 when playing away.

Gerald Garcia9 said:Hey there!

Stabauer-Rosenberg: Both teams to score - NO @ 2.15 (SS)

First one catching my eye today. Worst offense meets the best defense. Stabauer is struggling at home—only 8 goals in their last ten matches, which is less than one per game. Honestly, I don't see them breaking through a Rosenberg side that's finally finding its rhythm. Plus, the odds are just too good to pass up on this pick.

Good luck!

Not sure why you think this is a solid bet; they've actually been scoring more often than not.🤷
If you're leaning towards them not scoring, the same SS shows the team total for the home side to be under 1 goal at 2.50.

edit:
looks like William Doyle7 already posted this.🙂

Joshua Garcia8 said:I honestly can't wrap my head around why you’d consider this a smart bet, considering the vast majority of recent matches have seen them conceding goals... 🤷
If you're already betting on them keeping a clean sheet, you might as well look at the team's total goal count within that same SS; the odds for the home team scoring under 1 goal are sitting at 2.50.

edit:
I see that William Doyle7 already posted that... 🙂

🤦

I only just noticed that specific option was available. I'm nothing more than a recreational gambler anyway, so there's really no need for anyone to be surprised by my logic... I've already laid out my reasoning above...

Checking out the betting lines
HL Wales-Belgium 2 1.90
Canada-Switzerland 2 2.50

The odds look solid—yeah, they’re playing away, but Belgium and Switzerland should absolutely steamroll these two teams🤷

Is it worth taking the risk here$67?

Has anyone actually done the math for the qualifiers yet?