Soccer Betting

Ethiopia (2.5) vs Sudan 2 @ 1.80 SS

Just a month ago, Sudan pulled off a wild 5-3 win—mostly thanks to two penalties handed out in those final ten minutes... They actually led 3-1 at the half. Now, Ethiopia really needs to push forward and find at least two goals, and honestly, even without penalty help, they've shown they can score... Looking for the over here... ☕

Daniel Edwards said:Ethiopia (2.5) vs. Sudan (2) at 1.80. Looks like a solid play.

About a month ago, Sudan pulled off a wild 5-3 win, mostly thanks to two penalties handed out in the final ten minutes. They were sitting pretty at 3-1 during halftime. Now, Ethiopia has to go all-in and find at least two goals to stay alive, but even without the gift of penalty kicks, Sudan has proven they know how to find the back of the net. I’m calling the over. ☕

Man, why did I even bother putting this on my parlay? I was just playing the system, but hey, I've still got a shot. 🙂

For the next round of qualifiers, here’s where I’m putting my money:

Poland vs. England 2

It seems pretty obvious to me—I just don't think Poland stands much of a chance against England.

Denmark U21 vs. Spain U21: Match 2

Spain has beaten Denmark at this level before. Besides, we’re talking about Spanish youth prospects here—they definitely aren't a lost cause. 🙂

Japan vs. Brazil 2

Sure, it was a friendly, but Brazil and Russia have been dominating everything lately—which isn't exactly news. As for that Japan win over France? That was a total buzzer-beater. It was like an 88th-minute miracle; France had a corner, someone sent a stray ball deep into their own territory, the Japanese players just sprinted and capitalized on the mistake.

What’s the consensus on matchups like us against Wales, or Portugal vs. Northern Ireland, and Romania vs. Netherlands? I'm completely torn. The only thing I'm certain about is that we’re taking down Wales—we've finally found our rhythm and the chemistry is clearly there. Anyone have a deeper read on these other pairings?

Kevin Hall51 said:What do you guys think about matchups like us against Wales, or Portugal vs. Northern Ireland, or Romania vs. Netherlands? I just can't decide. I'm pretty sure we'll beat Wales since we've finally found our rhythm, but does anyone have a deeper take on these?

If Wales happens to have a good day, they could definitely sneak one or two past us. The real question is how many we can put up against them.

They’re dangerous on corner kicks, and Vid tends to lose his footing there sometimes. If Charlie and Joe aren't playing at their best, we're going to concede off a cross.

Bale can hammer free kicks from 35 yards out, which could give us trouble. Plus, he can easily outrun Vid while he's busy tripping over his own feet.

I believe we'll win, but it's still possible they find the back of the net.

If Bale doesn't play, they're going to lose 3-0 or even 4-0.

Listen up, brothers and sisters—sharpen those pencils... we’re going out there to get paid. Luck is watching over us, even if the devil tries to stop us.

Group A.

The favorite's day. 👋

8:00 PM
USA - Wels

The US has been scraping by in every possible way so far. We were absolute garbage in the first game and barely squeaked past Mexico—then in the second against Belgium, we had more luck than brains, and to top it off, Vid almost conceded a goal at the end. In the third, we just casually ground out that tiny win. We’re playing like crap, but hey, it works—time to cash in at the sportsbook. The Wels guys practically have zero chance of advancing now, honestly they never really did. It's common knowledge that island teams play way worse on the mainland, and there's a huge question mark over whether Bale will even suit up. Since we've already won two games by a single goal, it's high time we hit a handicap in this one.

8:30 PM
Where the sun always shines—Mordor 😁
This is the "Empire strike" episode. Our Eastern neighbors aren't actually as bad as they look. 😳
Anyone who caught the game or the highlights knows exactly what I mean. Miha really fired them up and gave the kids a shot to prove themselves—which they actually did—but they ended up paying the price for their lack of experience and missed chances. Tadic was swinging wildly like crazy, and they ended up swallowing goals on the counter plus a late one from an offside position. There's such a massive enclave of Mexicans in Mexico that you can expect a home-game atmosphere for the visitors, especially since the Mexicans have lost all hope of qualifying for Brazil. The biggest news is that Mexico's best player, Pandev, is sidelined for this one due to yellow cards. A victory for Sauron! For the brave warriors who aren't afraid of a little risk, I'd recommend a handicap here.

8:45 PM
Belgium - William Wallace "Braveheart"
Can that brave Scottish heart scrape together even one point in this brutal fight? Nope. Why? Because they’re weak. And bravery?
Bravery is overrated. They’ll probably concede some god-awful penalty thanks to their rustic style of play, and then Hazard & co. will absolutely bury them.

So, the stars, the dice, and the forecast all say it's Group A's day for the favorites—let's take a look at some decent handicap odds. 🙂

Paraguay-Peru
Man, Paraguay just isn't the same squad they were a couple of years back—they used to be known for being this tough, gritty, incredibly resilient team... now? It’s a different story.
They actually started out looking decent in the qualifiers, but then everything just completely fell apart. Nothing is clicking. They’re sitting on five straight losses right now, and honestly, they've been covering the spread poorly too.
They’re going to be pretty shorthanded again (just like what happened in Colombia) because they won't have these guys available:
Cardozo, Alcaraz, Santa Cruz, Barrios, Bonet, Veron, Barreto, Ortiz, and Estigarribia.
Since the Peru coach was basically babysitting his top talent—playing guys from the local league or MLS just so they wouldn't struggle with the high altitude in Bolivia—today we should finally see the heavy hitters:
Farfan, Pizarro, Guerrero, and Vargas, plus three others.
Peru is looking to keep their momentum going in Paraguay since they haven't lost in three matches. It’s the total opposite of Paraguay, who had a terrible run and are desperately trying to claw their way back up.
The vibe with the home team is just... messy. The visitors are clear favorites here, and there's some serious value to be found on them.
If I'm playing it, I'm looking at X2 at 2.00, DNB 2.80, or maybe even just taking the straight away win at 4.10... might be worth a shot.

USA - Wales @tip x2
Stimac has been everywhere lately following a strong start—from meeting with local politicians to posting his novel on Facebook. It gives me the impression that the national team might be taking the Welsh a bit too lightly, and they aren't an easy side to face. We managed to scrape 7 points from our first three matches thanks to some luck, but perhaps it’s time for that luck to shift toward our opponents.

Italy - Denmark @tip 1
This should easily be the most unpredictable qualifying group in Europe. Along with Dance and the Italians, the Czechs and Bulgarians are looking like real contenders (they've been pleasant surprises so far), and Armenia will certainly be a tricky opponent. Securing home wins is essential for a high ranking. The Italians have a massive opportunity today to deal a heavy Empire strike to the Danes and pull ahead by a daunting 8 points. Since they are objectively the superior squad, I believe they'll pull it off. I watched Dance play at home against the Czechs, and they didn't look particularly impressive to me. I'm expecting a narrow Italian victory.

Poland - England @tip 2
The Poles are playing without Cuba, who is currently their standout player, and I don't see them having much of a chance against England. Having watched them through all their group matches during the Euro, I get the feeling they struggle to utilize home-field advantage against even slightly stronger teams. England is clearly more formidable than the Czechs, Greece, or Russia. Poland's style is quite predictable—relying heavily on that BVB trio—and they struggle to sustain any real pressure on an opponent. I expect a somewhat dull match and a slim win for the English.

OTHER
Regarding the safe bets, Portugal and Russia seem the most reliable. They'll likely be battling it out for first place until the very end, so dropping points at home against sides like Azerbaijan or Northern Ireland simply isn't an option. Moldova also looks like a solid pick away against San Marino, which is arguably the weakest team in Europe and currently sits on a streak of over 30 losses. However, a solid Iceland could potentially surprise Switzerland. The Icelanders have a talented generation that even competed in the U21 Euro last year. I recall watching them play away against the German youth team (which featured several current Bundesliga stars) during those qualifiers, where they played quite bravely to earn a 2-2 draw, even though a win was mandatory for the Germans.

USA-Mexico 2 1,80
The US totally fell apart playing in Mexico—just a mess of bad tactics and zero cohesion on the pitch... meanwhile, Mexico played out of their minds and dominated from start to finish.
The Americans are going to be absolutely gutted by who’s missing from the lineup:
You've got Arturo Vidal out after that red card, plus Contreras is sitting this one out due to a suspension (yeah, those two yellows caught up to him), and then there's the injury list hitting hard with Mena, Rojas, Aranguiz, Pinilla, Bravo, and Suazo all sidelined...
Honestly, I don't see how the US pulls this off against a squad featuring Messi, Aguero, Higuain, and Di Maria...
On paper, looking at just the names, the US looks like a powerhouse, but the coaching staff? Absolute disaster. There's just no chemistry in that locker room right now.
They’re lacking that real team spirit you see in teams like Colombia or Uruguay—instead, everyone’s just trying to be a hero and play solo. It’s getting sloppy too; look at that game in Mexico where they racked up two reds—totally unprofessional.
I get that the US will be fired up and desperate to make up for it with a win at home, but with all these key players out and the vibes being this toxic... they're walking into a buzzsaw against a top-tier Mexican side. They don't stand a chance in my book. 15%-30%-55%
The odds look right to me, so I'm riding with a Mexico win.

Roger Phillips said:USA vs Mexico
If you ask me, an X2 at 2.00, a DNB at 2.80, or even just taking the straight 2 at 4.10... those are all solid plays.

Roger Phillips said:USA vs Mexico, 2 at 1.80

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Given the absences, the home-field advantage, current form, and the head-to-head history, I’m giving the edge to the home team, the St. Louis City SC.

Basically, the visitors are showing up pretty banged up:
Paulinho, Giovanni, Emerson, Jorge Henrique, Chicao, Guerrero, Ramirez, Ralf, Alessandro, Martinez, and Fábio Santos (suspended).

Looking at their usual starting XI—the guys who actually saw any meaningful minutes this season—
we're looking at Cassio in goal, plus Danilo, Wallace, Douglas, and Romarinho up front.

Everyone else? Barely played all year... mostly just benchwarmers.
Compared to their last matchup where they scraped a draw against Portland Timbers, they’ll be missing Ralf, Alessandro, and Fabio Santos today too.

The head-to-head stats are actually pretty interesting if you look back:

10.18.12, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians
07.26.12, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 2 : 0

10.16.11, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 0 : 1
07.24.11, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 1

11.13.10, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 1 : 0
08.26.10, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 1 : 0

10.25.09, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 1
07.19.09, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 1 : 2

08.25.07, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 3
05.20.07, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 0 : 3

10.22.06, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 1 : 0
07.13.06, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 2 : 0

11.03.05, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 2 : 1
07.28.05, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 4 : 3

As for the home side, they're missing:
Wellington Paulista, Alex Silva (only one appearance), Sandro Silva (7 appearances), Fabinho (3), Victorino (8), and Wallyson (10 appearances). Honestly, though... none of them are game-changers.

http://esporte.uol.com.br/futebol/ca...orinthians.htm

Santos-Atletico MG over 1,85

Honestly, I don't see any way Santos is clawing their way back into those Champions League spots this year... it just isn't happening.
They aren't even sweating the result much right now—they're basically playing with house money, which usually means they'll play some flashy, loose soccer since there's zero pressure on them to grind out a win.

The visitors are pretty shaky when they're on the road, but man, they are absolute beasts when they're playing at home.
Atletico is desperate for a big result here—they have no choice, even though their away record is straight-up pathetic. Seriously, they haven't pulled off an away win since... what, July 2012? Back when it was Sport Recife vs Atletico MG, 1-4.
They're sitting in second place right now, so they've gotta take some massive risks on the road if they want to walk away with something decent.
Santos hasn't lost in four matches, and in all four of those games, you saw at least two goals... nothing more, nothing less.
Meanwhile, Atletico has been involved in three straight high-scoring affairs—all 3+ goals.
I think Santos can easily find the back of the net, and the visitors definitely have more skin in the game... It’s a safe bet there's gonna be some action in this match, especially since Santos is dealing with a total mess in their defense:
Edu Dracena, Fucile, and that random defender Galhardo are all out.
Expect to see Neymar leading the charge for the home side, while the visitors will have Ronaldinho and Jo up front.
Over 1,85 - 2,35-3,10-2,95

07.17.11, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 1
08.22.10, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 0
06.21.09, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 3
08.07.08, Santos - Atletico Mineiro 2 : 3
11.04.07, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 2
05.22.05, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 3 : 0

Roger Phillips said:Looking at all the absences, the home-field advantage, current momentum, and how these teams match up head-to-head... I’m giving a massive edge to the home side, Cruzeiro.

Roger Phillips said:Santos vs Atletico MG—over 1.85

🙂

Dreamt about this last night—take a look here—though most people on the betting subforum are just die-hard fans, and you explained everything perfectly, 👍 looks solid to me; it could actually go. I tested this out with a small stake, and it hit, so now there's enough left to cover another ticket 🙂—we need more reasoned posts like this from people who actually follow football and hockey, rather than what I wrote on the fan boards... 😉

Just one quick question for Carol Moore5:
I’ve noticed you’ve been keeping a close eye on those Brazilian teams lately. Whether it’s by chance or just a hobby, I have to say, it’s impressive. I actually followed some of your recent parlays and managed to snag a little extra cash during the live betting session last night. 🙂 So, here’s the thing—looking at tonight’s slate, there’s a matchup where São Paulo is hosting Atlético GO. I’ve been digging through some analysis sites, and the consensus seems to be leaning heavily toward a home win. From what I can gather, São Paulo has been on a tear, pulling five wins and two draws out of their last seven matches, while the visitors are sitting dead last in the standings. Some bookmakers are offering decent odds on a São Paulo victory, around 1.40. If you have any thoughts on this one, I’d love to hear them. 🙂

Lisa Ramos59 said:Just one quick question for my colleague Carol Moore5...
I noticed you follow the Brazilian leagues quite closely—whether by design or just habit, I can't say, but it's impressive. I followed those picks of yours and managed to pull in some decent pocket change on the live bets last night. 🙂 Now, looking at tonight's slate, there's a match where São Paulo takes on Atlético GO. I've been digging through some analysis sites and the consensus seems to be a strong home win. São Paulo has been solid lately—five wins and two draws in their last seven, if I recall correctly—while the visitors are sitting dead last. Some bookies have the odds for a São Paulo win at a respectable 1.40... so, if you have any insight on this one, I'd appreciate it.🙂

I'm not Carol Moore5, but the math here is pretty straightforward—São Paulo is fighting for that fourth spot to secure a continental qualification berth. They're neck-and-neck with Vasco, and in a race like that, you simply cannot afford a slip-up against a bottom-feeder like Atlético GO. Expecting a handicap victory here...

The odds on DraftKings just dipped to 1.30. Now I’m scanning for another leg to pair with São Paulo—probably some tennis match, if I can find one worth my time.

Sao Paulo is hunting for that 4th seed and a ticket to the Copa Libertadores.
They’re rolling out a heavy-hitting lineup tonight—the only guy missing is Ganso.
They’ve been on this insane winning streak lately, playing this super aggressive 4-3-3 style, so honestly, I’m leaning hard toward the over on total goals here.
The visitors just tasted blood with that win against Internacional, which basically gave them a fighting chance to stay alive, so you can bet they’ll come out swinging offensively too.
With Sao Paulo’s attack featuring guys like Lucas, Luis Fabian, Osvaldo, and Jadson pulling the strings in midfield... they’re sitting in a prime spot to not just grab the win, but to absolutely unload some goals.
Man, I’m torn on what to actually lock in... both options look legit.
The home side is averaging about two goals a game at their place and they are absolute beasts on their own turf, while the visitors are among the weakest squads out there, giving up an average of two goals per match whenever they travel.🤷

If you ask me, it feels more likely that São Paulo pulls this off than some wild goal-fest scenario. Looking at the standings, recent results, and just the general statistical trends, the math seems to point that way. I don't know 🤷

When you really crunch the numbers, that 1.55 line for total goals isn't half bad—I mean, it should probably be sitting a bit higher if we’re being honest, but 🤷
A straight win at 1.30? Please... if that was closer to 1.50, then we'd actually have something worth talking about here.😁

head-to-head:

07/26/12, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 4 : 3
10/16/11, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 3 : 0
07/23/11, New York Giants - Atlanta Falcons 2 : 2
11/28/10, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 1 : 1
09/03/10, New York Giants - Atlanta Falcons 2 : 1

Injuries & Absences:
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
Steelers: Jonczyk (0/0 m)
Bears: Vuković (3/0 m), Kuzera (2/0 d), Golański (6/0 d)

Colorado Rapids vs. Austin FC
Rapids: Handle (11/0 f)
Austin FC: Hinterseer (12/1 f), Dospel (7/0 d), Pink (8/1 m), Kröpfl (0/0 d), Kropfhofer (0/0 g)

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers
Sounders: Buckley (3/1 d), Lenihan (3/0 m)
Timbers: Griffin (17/4 f), Burns (21/0 d), McDonnell (24/0 m), O’Brien (8/0 m), Woods (4/0 f), McKenna (8/1 f) (all doubtful), Foran (25/0 d), Shanahan (22/5 f), Walsh (21/0 f), Mountney (28/0 m), Osborne (17/0 d)

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC
Galaxy: Brennan (23/2 m)
LAFC: Kelly (2/0 g), Rusk (14/7 f), O'Connor (29/4 d)

Minnesota United vs. Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United: Bråthen (0/0 g)
Dynamo: Vindenes (6/0 d), A. Andersen (11/0 m), B. Andersen (14/0 g), Westlye (4/0 m), Haugland (3/0 d)

DC United vs. Atlanta United
DC United: Constantin (3/0 d), Duarte (3/0 d), Oros (9/0 d), Bozovic (8/0 m), Surdu (5/0 f), Burca (3/0 d), Pavlovic (4/0 m), Apostol (0/0 m)
Atlanta United: -

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs. Rochester Rhinos 1 1,85

The visitors are going to be feeling the sting without Pawel Golanski, Aleksandar Vukovic, and Kamil Kuzera—and let me tell you, those first two guys are absolute pillars for this squad. We’re talking a key defender and a vital midfielder missing from the lineup... big holes to fill.
The Riverhounds have been playing some seriously sharp soccer lately—super fast, lethal counter-attacks that just catch teams sleeping. They’ve been together for a while too, which gives them a solid core... basically three or four guys who just click perfectly. Honestly? They're just the better side right now.
They've only actually played two games at home so far, though. They absolutely smoked Wrocław FC 4:1 and fought to a 2:2 draw against the Legionnaires.
It's been a weird way to kick off the season for them, though—having to play three straight road games:
Against Piast, Jagiellonia, and Lech, they managed to scrape together 5 points.

Rochester is coming into this just looking to steal a point. That’s been their whole vibe on the road so far—basically parking the bus and trying to weather the storm against aggressive home teams.
Man, they are abysmal away from home. All they've managed is two draws, and they've only managed to find the back of the net twice. Even against a bottom-feeder like Belchatow, they could only scratch out a 1:1 draw on the road.
They're a pretty limited group at the moment, and frankly, they're a mess because of how they've been coached—it's frustrating because they clearly have more talent than what they're showing on the pitch... just bad management from the sidelines.
In my book, the Riverhounds are the clear favorites here.

Anyway, looking back at the last two seasons;

04.01.12, Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rochester Rhinos 2 : 0
10.03.11, Rochester Rhinos - Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2 : 0

05.25.11, Rochester Rhinos - Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1 : 0
11.19.10, Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rochester Rhinos 2 : 1