Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Gregory Ramos3 said:Man, if these newcomers start an epidemic of tetanus with their rusty AKs, the Atlantic Ocean will be the only thing standing in our way! ☕

Just a joke, but why on earth do you think Putin will live to see a hundred?
(Hint: current year + 30) 🤣 🤣

Well, we are talking about Putin here. A true superman. He’ll probably still look youthful and healthy at 150!

Telomere said:Whoever managed to puncture that pipeline, it’s going to be a riot watching German industry tank this winter. Maybe things will finally click for the Germans when they're shivering and running low on supplies. 😁

Germany currently has about 22% of its annual gas needs sitting in storage, while the European Union average is at 23%. Honestly, I think they'll breeze through the winter just fine, though 😁
https://agsi.gie.eu/

swiftdrifter8 said:The level of myth-making on this forum is unreal. It’s honestly bordering on Russian Telegram levels of delusion.

Putin could keep fighting for the next 30 years if he manages to grab even just 30% of the Chinese and Indian markets.

But hey, I guess a Russian defeat is just a matter of time, right?

Urals crude is sitting at $65 a barrel and looks like it’s headed even lower.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Things are looking pretty solid on this end—enough profit to fund maybe another 200 billion in war costs. ☕

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...nt-2022-09-20/

They’re doing such a great job raising taxes to plug that massive 3 billion ruble deficit. 🍿
Russia is going strong. The ruble is definitely a better currency than the dollar.
☕

George Robinson43 said:Well, we are talking about Putin here. A true superman. He’ll probably still look youthful and healthy at 150!

I heard the guy supposedly bathes in deer blood—supposedly good for the skin.
Between other things, a man who married Ludmilla—and better yet, actually managed to get divorced from her—is basically indestructible.

It’s honestly such a trip whenever I open up a new account and just get hit by a wave of absolute lunatics diving in headfirst 🙏 🙏

Yeah, sure, because Russia is totally going to just swap out the European Union market by leaning on China and India... except those markets already have everything they need, so they'll basically be standing there with open arms, waiting for the chance to ditch their current deals just to buy gas or oil from Russia at the exact same price, if not more 🙏 🙏

Talk about peak conspiracy world vibes

Can Russia even build gas pipelines without Western tech?

I mean, look at the facts—those turbines, which are just one tiny slice of the whole pipeline setup, are being sent straight to Siemens for overhauls. They aren't heading to China, India, or Japan...

The way I see it, with sanctions hitting them this hard and zero access to high-end Western tech, there’s no way they can pull this off on their own. And even if they try leaning on China, I seriously doubt they could get anything operational in the next 10 or 20 years that actually runs as smoothly as Nord Stream 1 and 2 or any other line packed with Western engineering.

Honestly, I bet those pipelines are made up of at least 70% Western components.

Look, if this hasn't clicked for some of you yet... the guy made a promise a long time ago...

"If Russia invades,” said Biden, “then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to IT."

Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/14907...fense-minister

placidtiger142 said:Can Russia even build gas pipelines without Western tech?

I mean, look at the facts—those turbines, which are just one tiny slice of the whole pipeline setup, are being sent straight to Siemens for overhauls. They aren't heading to China, India, or Japan...

The way I see it, with sanctions hitting them this hard and zero access to high-end Western tech, there’s no way they can pull this off on their own. And even if they try leaning on China, I seriously doubt they could get anything operational in the next 10 or 20 years that actually runs as smoothly as Nord Stream 1 and 2 or any other line packed with Western engineering.

Honestly, I bet those pipelines are made up of at least 70% Western components.

They probably could, honestly, but all their cash is being burned elsewhere right now, and trying to borrow money on the global capital markets is basically just a pipe dream for them at this point.🙂

Think about it like this: after WWII, Germany was totally wiped out economically, but since they went through that massive period of reckoning and reform, even their former enemies ended up helping them get back on their feet and turn into the economic powerhouse we see today.

So, who's actually going to step up and bail Russia out once this whole thing wraps up? North Korea and Eritrea?

northernsailor8 said:Maybe try doing some actual math for once. Consider the cost of building pipelines all the way there, the terrain they'd have to cross, and who Russia would actually back—China or India—if those two ever ended up at odds.

Who built the Golden Gate Bridge and how long did it take?
While everyone else is just talking, the Chinese are busy working. I wouldn't write off the Chinese or the Russians quite so early.

We probably shouldn't be rooting for Ukraine quite so hard either; it’s clear that Russian lives don't mean much to them, so a so-called "Russian defeat" might not even feel like a victory.

A Russian defeat means either a total economic collapse or the whole world heading toward war.

Gregory Ramos3 said:It’s honestly such a trip whenever I open up a new account and just get hit by a wave of absolute lunatics diving in headfirst 🙏 🙏

Yeah, sure, because Russia is totally going to just swap out the European Union market by leaning on China and India... except those markets already have everything they need, so they'll basically be standing there with open arms, waiting for the chance to ditch their current deals just to buy gas or oil from Russia at the exact same price, if not more 🙏 🙏

Talk about peak conspiracy world vibes

China and India are already pulling oil from the Middle East. If Russia starts trying to dump massive amounts of oil there, the Arab producers will just slash prices to squeeze the competition out. Let's be real, pumping Arab oil is way cheaper than pumping Russian oil. 🍿
And as for replacing gas exports? It’ll take decades to actually build out the pipelines and infrastructure needed in China and India.
That existing Power of Siberia pipeline isn't even in the same league as the pipeline networks used in Europe.

So, looking at this, the damage points are terrifyingly close to the route of the Baltic Pipe, which just went online
.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bidetmarx...467840/photo/2

Here’s where the Nord Stream stuff got hit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad2...618753/photo/2

And here’s the path for the Baltic Pipe.

I mean, maybe someone is trying to send a little message that this pipeline isn't exactly safe either... just saying...

gentlestag15 said:China and India are already pulling oil from the Middle East. If Russia starts trying to dump massive amounts of oil there, the Arab producers will just slash prices to squeeze the competition out. Let's be real, pumping Arab oil is way cheaper than pumping Russian oil. 🍿
And as for replacing gas exports? It’ll take decades to actually build out the pipelines and infrastructure needed in China and India.
That existing Power of Siberia pipeline isn't even in the same league as the pipeline networks used in Europe.

Right... or we could go with Option B, which is basically rerouting everything to where it’s actually needed at the exact same price point (looking at you, EU).

And I'm sure they'll be absolutely thrilled to have the Russians meddling in such a well-established market.

Some of these Russian trolls really don't grasp how the global market actually works, so you might as well stop wasting your breath.🙂

swiftdrifter8 said:Who built the Golden Gate Bridge and how long did it take?
While everyone else is just talking, the Chinese are busy working. I wouldn't write off the Chinese or the Russians quite so early.

We probably shouldn't be rooting for Ukraine quite so hard either; it’s clear that Russian lives don't mean much to them, so a so-called "Russian defeat" might not even feel like a victory.

A Russian defeat means either a total economic collapse or the whole world heading toward war.

So, what then? Are we supposed to go all-in cheering for the Russians instead? Should we?

swiftdrifter8 said:Who built the Golden Gate Bridge and how long did it take?
While everyone else is just talking, the Chinese are busy working. I wouldn't write off the Chinese or the Russians quite so early.

We probably shouldn't be rooting for Ukraine quite so hard either; it’s clear that Russian lives don't mean much to them, so a so-called "Russian defeat" might not even feel like a victory.

A Russian defeat means either a total economic collapse or the whole world heading toward war.

What does building a bridge have to do with oil pipelines and gas lines? That's civil engineering versus mechanical engineering—totally different ballgames.

Just as an FYI, even today, Chinese machinery can't hit the precision tolerances needed for certain ball valves (which are used everywhere in oil pipelines and fields) when you're doing maintenance. That's why people still order specialized equipment from the Netherlands.

gentlestag15 said:China and India are already pulling oil from the Middle East. If Russia starts trying to dump massive amounts of oil there, the Arab producers will just slash prices to squeeze the competition out. Let's be real, pumping Arab oil is way cheaper than pumping Russian oil. 🍿
And as for replacing gas exports? It’ll take decades to actually build out the pipelines and infrastructure needed in China and India.
That existing Power of Siberia pipeline isn't even in the same league as the pipeline networks used in Europe.

It isn't just about finding a new shipping route.
Without access to high-end Western technology, production is destined to crater once equipment starts failing and wells begin to clog.
It's a pattern we have already witnessed firsthand in Venezuela.

If the Russians hit NS1 and 2, and they did it right near that Norwegian pipeline, there's a real chance they planted explosives on that one too while they were already in the neighborhood. That is, if it was actually the Russians.

Man, if that gas pipeline goes down too, it would be absolute, pure chaos.

Honestly? I don't think we're ever going to find out who actually laid the mines.

Nobody is ever going to step up and take credit; it’ll just be everyone pointing fingers at everyone else forever.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...60347697205262

It looks like those TV propagandists are really starting to struggle with selling their usual line of nonsense. Even Solovyov seems to be hitting a bit of a panic mode lately, probably because the whole mobilization effort isn't exactly going according to their little master plan.

gentlestag15 said:Germany currently has about 22% of its annual gas needs sitting in storage, while the European Union average is at 23%. Honestly, I think they'll breeze through the winter just fine, though 😁
https://agsi.gie.eu/

Wait, America only has 12%!! in gas storage?
If we get more coming in through the pipelines, plus the LNG shipments, plus our own domestic production... can we even realistically hit 70-80% for the year?
If that happens, we're looking at massive gas reductions... just waiting to happen.

For Russia, natural gas is nothing more than a tool for blackmail; they couldn't care less who they sell it to or at what price. They are burning through massive quantities right now, but it’s all just a facade—they won't admit how much those sanctions actually hurt until it's too late. Their ultimate goal? To dismantle and subjugate a significant portion of the European Union. The underlying message is clear: this could easily happen to the Baltic pipeline next. Either lift the sanctions, or watch that one blow up too.

Bryan Gray91 said:Wait, America only has 12%!! in gas storage?
If we get more coming in through the pipelines, plus the LNG shipments, plus our own domestic production... can we even realistically hit 70-80% for the year?
If that happens, we're looking at massive gas reductions... just waiting to happen.

What do you mean 12%????

They're saying it's closer to 90%