Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

dustyfalcon122 said:The whole point is that, up until now, there hasn't been any covert sabotage like this during this war. This would be a total first.
If they wanted to get involved in the conflict, they could have done it openly through other means, which I honestly believe they would have announced beforehand. Secret operations are risky; if you get caught, the backfire is massive—something they've learned the hard way enough times to know. That’s why they stay public in this war.
Covert sabotage? That's the Russians' playbook, especially in a country that's falling apart where one agency has no idea what the other is doing or why.

Well, there are plenty of theories floating around. That new Baltic gas pipeline is right there. Maybe it was the target all along, and it was definitely the Russians.
It's suspiciously quiet, and the media keeps pushing this theory that the Americans blew it up just to tip off the Germans. Personally, it sounds like a weak theory that smells a bit too much like Russian disinformation.
By the way, Germany isn't sweating it. They've already filled their storage tanks to 90%.

Bryan Gray91 said:Wait, America only has 12%!! in gas storage?
If we get more coming in through the pipelines, plus the LNG shipments, plus our own domestic production... can we even realistically hit 70-80% for the year?
If that happens, we're looking at massive gas reductions... just waiting to happen.

America bumped gas production up to 40% of its annual domestic demand
We’ll have plenty of gas, and if things get too tight, they can just shut down the big chemical plants like Dow Chemical, which alone eats up about 20% of the gas used in the US.

Bryan Taylor6 said:What do you mean 12%????

They're saying it's closer to 90%

Sure, they might be at 90%, but right now they're only storing 12% of what America uses in a year.

rowdytiger13 said:Well, there are plenty of theories floating around. That new Baltic gas pipeline is right there. Maybe it was the target all along, and it was definitely the Russians.
It's suspiciously quiet, and the media keeps pushing this theory that the Americans blew it up just to tip off the Germans. Personally, it sounds like a weak theory that smells a bit too much like Russian disinformation.
By the way, Germany isn't sweating it. They've already filled their storage tanks to 90%.

I’ve been watching the gas storage refills, and ever since the Russians turned off the tap
in every European country (including Germany), they’ve kept filling those storages at the exact same pace as before the Nord Stream shutdown. It’s weird.

dustyfalcon122 said:The whole point is that, up until now, there hasn't been any covert sabotage like this during this war. This would be a total first.
If they wanted to get involved in the conflict, they could have done it openly through other means, which I honestly believe they would have announced beforehand. Secret operations are risky; if you get caught, the backfire is massive—something they've learned the hard way enough times to know. That’s why they stay public in this war.
Covert sabotage? That's the Russians' playbook, especially in a country that's falling apart where one agency has no idea what the other is doing or why.

Wait, so Russ is sabotaging the pipeline, but they have access to the valves???
This doesn't seem to have anything to do with Russ. It feels more like someone just doesn't want them to have any leverage in negotiations, or maybe there's a desperate push to escalate the war against Russia at any cost.

That doesn't mean much to us in terms of percentages; it's really just about how many days of winter we can actually cover with our gas supplies

says:
To my mind, it’s just blindingly obvious that Americans were the ones who mined those pipelines. It feels like a massive signal sent to Europeans, especially since economic discontent is starting to boil over there. But regardless of the motive, what I find particularly striking is how nobody on European news networks even dares to mention it as a possibility. Everyone seems terrified of Big Brother...

Blowing up a pipeline that wasn't even operational in the first place strikes me more as a desperate, short-sighted move rather than some masterfully crafted long-term strategy.

If anyone is acting out of pure desperation right now, it’s probably Putin.

In his own little delusions, he likely thought he could leverage energy against Europe. Now that he sees that hasn't worked, maybe he’s convinced himself that Europe is still just waiting for him to turn the valves back on when things get tough. So, he’s hoping this sabotage will trigger even more panic.

Drew Gonzalez5 said:Wait, so Russ is sabotaging the pipeline, but they have access to the valves???
This doesn't seem to have anything to do with Russ. It feels more like someone just doesn't want them to have any leverage in negotiations, or maybe there's a desperate push to escalate the war against Russia at any cost.

Let them see that there are people even crazier than they are.🙂

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s the only thing that makes sense. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline when they already hold the kill switch? They can turn the flow on or off whenever they feel like it. It's incredible the kind of nonsense and sheer stupidity they try to feed people these days.🤦

The answer is right there in your comment and avenger's.

swiftjackal11 said:Let them see that there are people even crazier than they are.🙂

For real though, 🤣🤣

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s the only thing that makes sense. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline when they already hold the kill switch? They can turn the flow on or off whenever they feel like it. It's incredible the kind of nonsense and sheer stupidity they try to feed people these days.🤦

The Americans could easily just twist the valves on the other end of that same line. Or better yet—they could just call Washington, D.C., and tell them to shut it down themselves. The Americans and the British in Germany are essentially an occupation force, even now. The only person for whom this pipeline is now completely useless is Putin. He’s finally realized that as long as he’s breathing, the gas won't flow through his hands. He’s the only one who benefits from destroying it to chase some other agenda. Everyone else takes the hit—and besides, the gas isn't moving through that pipe anyway. In many ways, that pipeline was the ultimate physical manifestation of Putin's policy: "We'll sell you the gas, but only if you agree to a whole laundry list of political concessions," and that list is never finished. Relying on a supplier like that is a fool's errand.

Timothy Nelson5 said:

says:
To my mind, it’s just blindingly obvious that Americans were the ones who mined those pipelines. It feels like a massive signal sent to Europeans, especially since economic discontent is starting to boil over there. But regardless of the motive, what I find particularly striking is how nobody on European news networks even dares to mention it as a possibility. Everyone seems terrified of Big Brother...

Blowing up a pipeline that wasn't even operational in the first place strikes me more as a desperate, short-sighted move rather than some masterfully crafted long-term strategy.

If anyone is acting out of pure desperation right now, it’s probably Putin.

In his own little delusions, he likely thought he could leverage energy against Europe. Now that he sees that hasn't worked, maybe he’s convinced himself that Europe is still just waiting for him to turn the valves back on when things get tough. So, he’s hoping this sabotage will trigger even more panic.

The fact that the pipeline is offline isn't the point; the message for the future is what matters.
Look at how the far right has already taken power in Italy, and people are pushing back elsewhere too.
The USA's message would be: "Not on our watch." This is about prevention.

Russ doesn't need to blow up their own pipe; they can just turn off the valve, which is exactly what they've already done.

Any of the major players with enough leverage could have easily just shut off the valve.
Russia is really the only one with a clear motive here, whether it's squeezing political rivals or pulling off some kind of false flag operation through sabotage.

On this day in history:
September 28, 1991. Lollapalooza at the Brooklyn airfield in Moscow.
The Black Crowes, Pantera, Metallica, and AC/DC performed for a massive crowd of 1.6 million people.

The kind of mobilization Mad Vlad and his rabble could only dream of achieving.

Timothy Nelson5 said:

says:
To my mind, it’s just blindingly obvious that Americans were the ones who mined those pipelines. It feels like a massive signal sent to Europeans, especially since economic discontent is starting to boil over there. But regardless of the motive, what I find particularly striking is how nobody on European news networks even dares to mention it as a possibility. Everyone seems terrified of Big Brother...

Blowing up a pipeline that wasn't even operational in the first place strikes me more as a desperate, short-sighted move rather than some masterfully crafted long-term strategy.

If anyone is acting out of pure desperation right now, it’s probably Putin.

In his own little delusions, he likely thought he could leverage energy against Europe. Now that he sees that hasn't worked, maybe he’s convinced himself that Europe is still just waiting for him to turn the valves back on when things get tough. So, he’s hoping this sabotage will trigger even more panic.

His goal is simple: sow panic and drive a wedge through the European Union and NATO. It is his only theoretical chance at slowing down the Ukrainians from reclaiming their territory. This is classic "hybrid" warfare—his preferred playbook, and one where he’s had success before. Putin isn't the type of man to simply walk away from a battlefield without sabotaging the infrastructure on his way out.

I see this as classic American cowboy energy, basically just Victoria Nuland saying "screw the European Union."

They love making threats, even if they aren't quite as blunt as Russia—who, let's be honest, wasn't exactly subtle when they were blackmailing and threatening us during the Civil War.

And this whole idea about causing panic and division within the EU is a joke. If you take away the physical possibility of ever getting gas flowing from Russia again, there's nothing left to argue about because that option is dead and gone.

swiftjackal11 said:That doesn't mean much to us in terms of percentages; it's really just about how many days of winter we can actually cover with our gas supplies

If our entire production line goes belly up, the LNG terminal catches fire, and all our neighboring states decide to cut us off, we’d be looking at maybe 20 days of supply—and if Dow Chemical goes offline, we lose another 30 days of winter coverage.
but since that first scenario isn't exactly on the cards, we'll have more than enough to get through the year.😁

Nancy Gomez26 said:My own view is that the U.S. was the primary force behind ensuring that gas simply wouldn't flow through the completed NS2. I suspect that was one of the main triggers for Putin deciding to invade Ukraine—he realized he was becoming dependent on someone else's "goodwill," so he decided to raise the stakes in what looked like a viable "operation" at the time. If the Americans can control gas flows through mere bureaucratic pressure (and in that case, they can also ease that pressure if the opportunity arises), it becomes a massive political lever in their hands. Perhaps his internal circle sent him a "message" suggesting it would be wise to open the valves before winter to show "goodwill"—letting the gas flow instead of letting it burn off uselessly—to normalize things. Instead, he preempted them by ordering the pipeline to be sabotaged, effectively stripping them of that leverage.

There you go... that theory, along with several others used to blame the Russians, seems entirely plausible to me.

I honestly don't get why nobody is pointing fingers at the British or the Scandinavians. They had every reason and plenty of opportunity—especially since Russia is constantly waving nuclear threats in their faces, so they've got skin in the game—and besides, shutting down those pipelines wouldn't have been easy without some serious sabotage involved.

Russia has fully mapped all American undersea pipelines and cable systems

America serves as the primary gas supplier for Europe.
Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the United States Merchant Marine Academy, argues that the recent pipeline leaks in the Baltic Sea should serve as a massive wake-up call for the nation.

- In the ongoing friction between the West and Russia, America sits on a massive stockpile of strategic resources that are absolutely vital to the outcome. Europe relies heavily on what we provide. If someone wants to strike at Europe, they can simply target our shipments.
He believes the country is currently unprepared for such a scenario.

- We are aware that Russia has mapped out every single one of our underwater pipelines and cable networks. We essentially let it happen without much of a reaction from anyone. It leaves us incredibly vulnerable.

He is avoiding any direct speculation regarding whether American oil pipelines will face sabotage in the future.

- I don't want to speculate on the exact probability, but the risk has never been higher, says Ulriksen.

https://www.nrk.no/urix/stale-ulriks...sje-1.16118799

says:
It feels like classic American cowboy energy to me—that whole "screw the European Union" vibe coming from Victoria Nuland.

They love making threats, even if they aren't quite as subtle as Russia. Honestly, we dealt with constant, blunt blackmail and intimidation back during our own Civil War.

You pointed to the far-right victory in Italy as a reason, but those guys still need that European Union money, and she’s already said she supports the sanctions. Once she actually takes office, she'll probably just tone down the rhetoric, at least where necessary to keep the funding flowing.
Only countries that basically bankroll the funds, like the UK, can afford to act tough. Everyone else can talk big until their wallets get frozen.
So... it doesn't really mean anything, and it's definitely not enough reason for the US to start running sabotage operations.
Sure, he gets under their skin... that's true. But would they really take him out just for that? I wouldn't bet on it.
The whole thing is pretty strange because neither side seems to have a rock-solid motive.

Nancy Gomez26 said:My own view is that the U.S. was the primary force behind ensuring that gas simply wouldn't flow through the completed NS2. I suspect that was one of the main triggers for Putin deciding to invade Ukraine—he realized he was becoming dependent on someone else's "goodwill," so he decided to raise the stakes in what looked like a viable "operation" at the time. If the Americans can control gas flows through mere bureaucratic pressure (and in that case, they can also ease that pressure if the opportunity arises), it becomes a massive political lever in their hands. Perhaps his internal circle sent him a "message" suggesting it would be wise to open the valves before winter to show "goodwill"—letting the gas flow instead of letting it burn off uselessly—to normalize things. Instead, he preempted them by ordering the pipeline to be sabotaged, effectively stripping them of that leverage.

Maybe, maybe... honestly, it doesn't sound right. It’s way more likely that Putin just executes anyone even thinking about rebelling, so everyone stays in line and nobody dares to act. But hey, who knows...