Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Gregory Ramos3 said:They probably could, honestly, but all their cash is being burned elsewhere right now, and trying to borrow money on the global capital markets is basically just a pipe dream for them at this point.🙂

Think about it like this: after WWII, Germany was totally wiped out economically, but since they went through that massive period of reckoning and reform, even their former enemies ended up helping them get back on their feet and turn into the economic powerhouse we see today.

So, who's actually going to step up and bail Russia out once this whole thing wraps up? North Korea and Eritrea?

Honestly, you're looking at this without much financial literacy—just like 99.99% of the people on this forum. You seem constantly baffled by how a sovereign nation with its own banking system, like the US or Russia, can essentially fund itself.

Good grief, who exactly is going to go out and lend money to a sovereign nation? 😵

George Robinson43 said:But didn't Germany officially declare their entire strategy is based on completely cutting ties with Russian energy?
Since when did NS1 and NS2 suddenly become "strategic projects" again?

They were.
Before the invasion.
Not anymore. The whole strategy now is just moving away from Russian energy entirely.

Things are getting pretty tense over in the States regarding the gas pipelines

American gas supplies are likely the single biggest target for sabotage in all of Europe right now.

- We are currently dealing with a massive war in Europe. Given the circumstances, the gas supply from Norway is probably the most significant strategic target for sabotage on the entire continent, according to Lieutenant Colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Geir Hågen Karlsen, speaking to NBC.

If Russia is pulling the strings here, Karlsen doesn't believe it's a coincidence that these pipeline explosions are hitting at the exact same time Norway is launching a new pipeline connecting Norway to Poland.

- I believe this threat needs to be taken extremely seriously. If such an event were to occur, we would be looking at a very grave escalation of the conflict.

https://www.nrk.no/norge/meiner-at-n...mal-1.16119313

rowdytiger13 said:Well, there are plenty of theories floating around. That new Baltic gas pipeline is right there. Maybe it was the target all along, and it was definitely the Russians.
It's suspiciously quiet, and the media keeps pushing this theory that the Americans blew it up just to tip off the Germans. Personally, it sounds like a weak theory that smells a bit too much like Russian disinformation.
By the way, Germany isn't sweating it. They've already filled their storage tanks to 90%.

Man, holy crap, that didn't even cross my mind! But honestly, once you look at how their military is holding up and the absolute mess their intelligence agencies are in... it actually doesn't sound that crazy at all! 🤣

Linda Collins3 said:The fact that the pipeline is offline isn't the point; the message for the future is what matters.
Look at how the far right has already taken power in Italy, and people are pushing back elsewhere too.
The USA's message would be: "Not on our watch." This is about prevention.

Russ doesn't need to blow up their own pipe; they can just turn off the valve, which is exactly what they've already done.

And if the valve on the Russian side is closed, then how do you explain those "bubbles" in the Baltic Sea? How does the gas reach the site of the rupture?

Timothy Williams5 said:Things are getting pretty tense over in the States regarding the gas pipelines

American gas supplies are likely the single biggest target for sabotage in all of Europe right now.

- We are currently dealing with a massive war in Europe. Given the circumstances, the gas supply from Norway is probably the most significant strategic target for sabotage on the entire continent, according to Lieutenant Colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Geir Hågen Karlsen, speaking to NBC.

If Russia is pulling the strings here, Karlsen doesn't believe it's a coincidence that these pipeline explosions are hitting at the exact same time Norway is launching a new pipeline connecting Norway to Poland.

- I believe this threat needs to be taken extremely seriously. If such an event were to occur, we would be looking at a very grave escalation of the conflict.

https://www.nrk.no/norge/meiner-at-n...mal-1.16119313

Sure, if you follow the theory that the Norwegian pipeline was the actual target.
Which implies they actually managed to puncture the line or whatever.🤣
Or, more likely, it was just a warning—though you don't really send a "warning" by blowing up someone else's infrastructure.
Who knows.

I’m honestly betting on the ultimate cosmic joke played on a species that thinks it knows everything—the idea that the pipe actually leaked because of low internal pressure. See, the pressure in Nord Stream 2 plummeted from 105 down to just 7 bars in a tiny window of time two days ago.

George Robinson43 said:But didn't Germany officially declare their entire strategy is based on completely cutting ties with Russian energy?
Since when did NS1 and NS2 suddenly become "strategic projects" again?

A "strategy" is just a bunch of ink on paper; you swap it out whenever the wind changes. If that new pipeline from Norway had blown up, everyone would have known immediately that Russia was behind it.

rowdytiger13 said:

says:
It feels like classic American cowboy energy to me—that whole "screw the European Union" vibe coming from Victoria Nuland.

They love making threats, even if they aren't quite as subtle as Russia. Honestly, we dealt with constant, blunt blackmail and intimidation back during our own Civil War.

You pointed to the far-right victory in Italy as a reason, but those guys still need that European Union money, and she’s already said she supports the sanctions. Once she actually takes office, she'll probably just tone down the rhetoric, at least where necessary to keep the funding flowing.
Only countries that basically bankroll the funds, like the UK, can afford to act tough. Everyone else can talk big until their wallets get frozen.
So... it doesn't really mean anything, and it's definitely not enough reason for the US to start running sabotage operations.
Sure, he gets under their skin... that's true. But would they really take him out just for that? I wouldn't bet on it.
The whole thing is pretty strange because neither side seems to have a rock-solid motive.

Everyone knows that, but the point isn't about what's happening right now—it's about preventing things from escalating in the first place.

Drew Gonzalez5 said:Wait, so Russ is sabotaging the pipeline, but they have access to the valves???
This doesn't seem to have anything to do with Russ. It feels more like someone just doesn't want them to have any leverage in negotiations, or maybe there's a desperate push to escalate the war against Russia at any cost.

The Russian angle would be—"It wasn't us, why would we do that when we hold the valve?" Just playing the innocent card.

But if they actually shut off the valve? You can't exactly play the victim then.

analogbear5 said:I’m honestly betting on the ultimate cosmic joke played on a species that thinks it knows everything—the idea that the pipe actually leaked because of low internal pressure. See, the pressure in Nord Stream 2 plummeted from 105 down to just 7 bars in a tiny window of time two days ago.

Sure, but let’s be real—having two pipes from Nord Stream 1 burst and one from Nord Stream 2 blow out all in a single day? That’s textbook sabotage, not some random pressure drop.

Linda Collins3 said:Maybe, maybe... honestly, it doesn't sound right. It’s way more likely that Putin just executes anyone even thinking about rebelling, so everyone stays in line and nobody dares to act. But hey, who knows...

The real question is how a major power struggle at the top of the Russian political hierarchy would play out today. What is Putin's actual political leverage right now? I suspect he is much like his military—formidable on paper and perhaps against much weaker adversaries, but in reality, it's an entirely different story....

Henry Gonzalez67 said:And if the valve on the Russian side is closed, then how do you explain those "bubbles" in the Baltic Sea? How does the gas reach the site of the rupture?

You aren't following the situation. A tiny bit of gas might be trickling through, but it's nothing—that's exactly why people say the pipeline isn't operational.

Christian Torres3 said:So it's totally illogical that Putin would want to get back at the Germans by destroying billions of dollars in their own property? Right?

There are plenty of more logical explanations for who actually blew up that pipeline.

Look, you can't just sell off a pipeline or pack it up and move it. It’s a direct line to Russia. There is zero logic in the Russians blowing it up—none at all. Same goes for the Germans; it makes no sense. The only actors that make any sense here are Ukrainians or Americans. Given that Ukrainians likely don't have the capability to pull off sabotage of this scale, that leaves...

Besides, the US rebuilt Germany from the ashes after WWII and jumpstarted their entire industrial sector. If they wanted to tear it down now, they certainly could.🎉

Russia clearly doesn't grasp the massive self-inflicted wound they've dealt themselves by holding these referendums and claiming those four regions. If they officially declare them part of their territory, how do they plan to deal with the reality that Ukraine still holds significant ground—including 40% of Donetsk and chunks of Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia? Ukrainians aren't just going to pack up and leave simply because the Russians are having some sort of delusional fever dream. What happens next? Nothing—they’ll just continue losing pieces of what they now claim is "theirs."
More importantly, they've just elevated the status of these regions to match Crimea. Up until now, the West had largely treated Crimea as a silent, frozen issue—even if Russia hadn't launched a full-scale war, things might have stayed that way. In any potential scenario where Ukraine liberates its land, the West—specifically Germany and France—might have even conditioned support on not moving militarily, essentially pushing for a status quo or a peaceful reintegration over the next 50 years. But this move changes everything; now the Ukrainians have a green light to pursue Crimea with the same intensity they're using against Russian positions elsewhere.

gentlestag15 said:Sure, but let’s be real—having two pipes from Nord Stream 1 burst and one from Nord Stream 2 blow out all in a single day? That’s textbook sabotage, not some random pressure drop.

Swedish seismologists picked up three separate explosions...

Unpopular opinion...
I’m just waiting for some heroine from the American media to drop a subtle hint that we might actually be worthy of being called Americans, because I’m sitting here reading these exhaustive explanations of why the Russians are the way they are. Fine, I get it. Go jump in a lake.
And yes... I am pro-Europe and a huge fan of how Americans handle conflicts.

Linda Collins3 said:You aren't following the situation. A tiny bit of gas might be trickling through, but it's nothing—that's exactly why people say the pipeline isn't operational.

Gas isn't actually flowing through the pipeline; it's just sitting there within a closed system.

Joshua Myers432 said:Look, you can't just sell off a pipeline or pack it up and move it. It’s a direct line to Russia. There is zero logic in the Russians blowing it up—none at all. Same goes for the Germans; it makes no sense. The only actors that make any sense here are Ukrainians or Americans. Given that Ukrainians likely don't have the capability to pull off sabotage of this scale, that leaves...

Besides, the US rebuilt Germany from the ashes after WWII and jumpstarted their entire industrial sector. If they wanted to tear it down now, they certainly could.🎉

You think Americans view Europe as their own property.

You're spot on there...

Joshua Myers432 said:A "strategy" is just a bunch of ink on paper; you swap it out whenever the wind changes. If that new pipeline from Norway had blown up, everyone would have known immediately that Russia was behind it.

I see! So the theory is we just wait for the war to wrap up, and then overnight, everything reverts to the old way.
It’s like Schroeder, Schüssel, and the whole gang are already lined up at the starting blocks. Even Milančo is ready to go.