Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

A tweet from a few days back by

Harri_EST
@Harri_Est
Founder
@UkraineAidOps
The UAO mission focuses on getting essential protective gear to Ukrainians stationed right in the combat zones.

We appreciate everyone checking in after our recent incident—we’re relieved to say we’re doing alright. We ask that any offers of support be made in memory of Andrew Fabiani from
@DlyaHeroiv, an American hero who gave his life helping Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status...dnexYw50n4PTIg

Timothy Williams5 said:18 HIMARS units

https://twitter.com/SaintFeIIa/statu...aZD8CT9bncTR6g

https://defbrief.com/2021/02/26/roma...s-from-the-us/

More on the pipeline situation from MediaCom:

• The experts interviewed for this piece have ruled out the idea that the damaged pipelines might be completely ruined by saltwater corrosion. One specialist pointed out that, for the moment, there isn't actually any water inside the pipes because the pressure differential is preventing it from getting in.
• “Once most of the gas escapes and the internal pressure drops to match the external environment—the surrounding water column—water could theoretically seep into the pipes at the breach points. However, since gas will still be present within the lines, the water won't fully flood them; it’ll likely only penetrate small sections relative to the total length of the pipeline,” the expert explained.
• Another contributor suggested that repairing the line might be feasible by deploying plugs from both the German and Russian sides. This would essentially seal off the damaged areas and push the water back out. Furthermore, the epoxy coating on the interior of the pipes acts as a barrier against salt damage.
• Ulrik Lissek, representing the Nord Stream 2 operators, also believes that repairing the damaged sections might be an option. He noted that the first step is a thorough damage assessment, which requires a closer look at the actual state of things. “Right now, nobody can say for certain what the situation looks like down there or what the technical possibilities actually are,” said Lissek, who hasn't ruled out the possibility of dealing with a massive fissure.

https://www.agents.media/unichtozhen...ernogo-potoka/

boldotter2 said:The most logical take is that this was basically a threat, like... look what we can do to you...

It definitely wasn't a coincidence that this happened on the exact same day as the opening of the Baltic pipeline.
Plus, let's not forget that almost all global communication, the internet, and pretty much everything else relies on those undersea cables.

It shouldn't be too hard to figure out who benefits from showing just how fragile "Western decadence" really is. And generally speaking, who stands to gain from spreading fear?

It’s an overt threat. Yet, if we look at the long-term fallout, the Russians are actually the ones losing out most. In the short term, it's the gas consumers who take the hit because sabotage inevitably drives prices up—especially since the pipelines are either majority-owned (Nord Stream 1) or entirely owned (Nord Stream 2) by Russia. This makes them the least likely suspects in any investigation (unless they suddenly decide to act rationally, which is becoming a rare occurrence given their current MO following the setbacks in Ukraine). But this could easily be nothing more than a prelude to further infrastructure attacks. Alternatively, it might serve purely as domestic propaganda for the Russian Federation: a way to say, "Look how they attack us, so we have no choice but to defend ourselves in Ukraine." Since the pipeline is effectively useless anyway, it can be sacrificed. Perhaps they believe threatening with nuclear weapons adds extra weight to their leverage. We will see how things unfold in the coming days and whether we see more strikes on critical infrastructure. Regardless, this will rattle the markets by increasing supply uncertainty, further spiking already high prices. We all know who loses in that scenario, and who finds themselves on the "winning" side—ideologically speaking.

hiddeneagle98 said:We can only assume he's making the same educated guesses we all are. If the Americans did pull something like this, there's no way they'd orchestrate it so that some former Polish minister could just broadcast that kind of info to the whole world.

Besides, Russ isn't even selling gas through NS1 anymore, and they never really used NS2 for that either. So, they aren't exactly sitting on that branch, nor do they have any hope of ever sitting on it again. The European side has already written off any investment in NS2 as a total loss.

We'll see what happens next, and that should make it pretty obvious who was playing what game. Honestly, I'm worried the Norwegian pipeline might be the next target.

Look, the guy just knows way more than any of us here. Him talking faster than he can think is a separate issue entirely.
And then there’s the statement from the President. Even if a Pole isn't authorized to speak for the US government, Joe Biden certainly is.

hiddeneagle98 said:We can only assume he's making the same educated guesses we all are. If the Americans did pull something like this, there's no way they'd orchestrate it so that some former Polish minister could just broadcast that kind of info to the whole world.

Besides, Russ isn't even selling gas through NS1 anymore, and they never really used NS2 for that either. So, they aren't exactly sitting on that branch, nor do they have any hope of ever sitting on it again. The European side has already written off any investment in NS2 as a total loss.

We'll see what happens next, and that should make it pretty obvious who was playing what game. Honestly, I'm worried the Norwegian pipeline might be the next target.

The pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure—you can clearly see the sea churning and gas bubbling up to the surface. That means it was full. I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free, so I'm guessing they were selling it.

hiddeneagle98 said:We can only assume he's making the same educated guesses we all are. If the Americans did pull something like this, there's no way they'd orchestrate it so that some former Polish minister could just broadcast that kind of info to the whole world.

Besides, Russ isn't even selling gas through NS1 anymore, and they never really used NS2 for that either. So, they aren't exactly sitting on that branch, nor do they have any hope of ever sitting on it again. The European side has already written off any investment in NS2 as a total loss.

We'll see what happens next, and that should make it pretty obvious who was playing what game. Honestly, I'm worried the Norwegian pipeline might be the next target.

Obviously. If the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then we'll know exactly what happened. Right?

silentsurfer3 said:https://defbrief.com/2021/02/26/roma...s-from-the-us/

Yeah. This is old news. It would be better to just delete it. 🙄

Timothy Williams5 said:Yeah. This is old news. It would be better to just delete it. 🙄

Ugh, we could actually use this. Even the color scheme works for us. 😁

I wonder if Nord Stream 2 managed to escape unscathed, or if it’s also been compromised? As far as I can see, there are really just two ways this whole mess plays out, which are:

a) The Russians pulled this off to exert pressure on European Union nations, serving as a sort of secondary threat to force Germany and everyone else into a corner in the dead of winter, essentially coercing them to restart Nord Stream 2 and back away from those sanctions. It feels almost too symbolic, doesn't it, considering how this happened on the exact same day the Norwegian pipeline was opened toward Poland?

b) The Americans were behind it, all to ensure Europeans don't cave when the pressure mounts mid-winter or once gas prices hit levels that are simply impossible to stomach.

I'm leaning toward scenario a), though I certainly wouldn't rule out b).

Nancy Gomez26 said:It’s an overt threat. Yet, if we look at the long-term fallout, the Russians are actually the ones losing out most. In the short term, it's the gas consumers who take the hit because sabotage inevitably drives prices up—especially since the pipelines are either majority-owned (Nord Stream 1) or entirely owned (Nord Stream 2) by Russia. This makes them the least likely suspects in any investigation (unless they suddenly decide to act rationally, which is becoming a rare occurrence given their current MO following the setbacks in Ukraine). But this could easily be nothing more than a prelude to further infrastructure attacks. Alternatively, it might serve purely as domestic propaganda for the Russian Federation: a way to say, "Look how they attack us, so we have no choice but to defend ourselves in Ukraine." Since the pipeline is effectively useless anyway, it can be sacrificed. Perhaps they believe threatening with nuclear weapons adds extra weight to their leverage. We will see how things unfold in the coming days and whether we see more strikes on critical infrastructure. Regardless, this will rattle the markets by increasing supply uncertainty, further spiking already high prices. We all know who loses in that scenario, and who finds themselves on the "winning" side—ideologically speaking.

Exactly. It's all about trying to look bigger and scarier than they really are. Like a cranky grizzly bear, I guess.

Total drama queens. Seriously.

The American way is totally different: Speak softly and carry a big stick.

wanderingdriver68 said:I wonder if Nord Stream 2 managed to escape unscathed, or if it’s also been compromised? As far as I can see, there are really just two ways this whole mess plays out, which are:

a) The Russians pulled this off to exert pressure on European Union nations, serving as a sort of secondary threat to force Germany and everyone else into a corner in the dead of winter, essentially coercing them to restart Nord Stream 2 and back away from those sanctions. It feels almost too symbolic, doesn't it, considering how this happened on the exact same day the Norwegian pipeline was opened toward Poland?

b) The Americans were behind it, all to ensure Europeans don't cave when the pressure mounts mid-winter or once gas prices hit levels that are simply impossible to stomach.

I'm leaning toward scenario a), though I certainly wouldn't rule out b).

As if anyone would ever try to run Nord Stream 2 now that it's trashed. Hello? Are you even following the news?

Forget about Nord Stream 2. Gas isn't flowing through that anytime soon. The real question is if it ever will.
So, your theory "a" is completely useless.

cosmicgull52 said:The entire free world is trembling! Journalists are completely lost.

As I have already stated, pure logic dictates that the Americans are behind this. I can only applaud them, especially seeing how these people whine. 👍

If the Americans were truly pulling the strings here, they would have pulled them ages ago, rather than waiting until the moment the European Union had already decided to stop sourcing gas from Russia. Such a claim is fundamentally devoid of any logical basis.

boldotter2 said:Taking out gas pipelines, comms lines, or satellites counts as an attack on the home country. I guess it doesn't even matter if they're in international waters or way up in space. That's probably why the Russians have been hitting "their own" stuff while staying low-key. It's just cowardly psyops, really.

If that's the case—then sure, it’s a psyop, but for now, it mostly seems to be self-inflicted long-term damage. With Nord Stream 1, they crippled their own minority partners (who held 49% ownership), but even that comes at the expense of any future joint ventures. Who would ever sign a contract with partners who have a documented history of destroying shared assets? The people in The Kremlin lack the courage for a direct confrontation, so they resort to these circuitous methods. Their priority is maintaining appearances; you see it clearly with these recent 'referendums,' and these attacks on pipelines—which aren't even in use right now—likely fall into that same category. The crew in The Kremlin is systematically dismantling the future of the Russian Federation (whatever might remain after they are gone), while their soldiers on the other side—when forced to retreat due to poor decisions made by none other than The Kremlin itself—leave behind perfectly functional weaponry for the Ukrainians to use....

wanderingdriver68 said:I wonder if Nord Stream 2 managed to escape unscathed, or if it’s also been compromised? As far as I can see, there are really just two ways this whole mess plays out, which are:

a) The Russians pulled this off to exert pressure on European Union nations, serving as a sort of secondary threat to force Germany and everyone else into a corner in the dead of winter, essentially coercing them to restart Nord Stream 2 and back away from those sanctions. It feels almost too symbolic, doesn't it, considering how this happened on the exact same day the Norwegian pipeline was opened toward Poland?

b) The Americans were behind it, all to ensure Europeans don't cave when the pressure mounts mid-winter or once gas prices hit levels that are simply impossible to stomach.

I'm leaning toward scenario a), though I certainly wouldn't rule out b).

Here is the update:

A second breach has been discovered in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline within Swedish waters, confirming that both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 lines have sustained damage from the explosions earlier this week. Emergency response teams are continuing their survey of the gas pipelines ahead of the mission to attempt to stem the leaks and determine the exact nature of the incident, though meaningful progress isn't expected until next week.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/sweden/index.html

quietcobra21 said:As if anyone would ever try to run Nord Stream 2 now that it's trashed. Hello? Are you even following the news?

Forget about Nord Stream 2. Gas isn't flowing through that anytime soon. The real question is if it ever will.
So, your theory "a" is completely useless.

Please provide the posts you are referring to so I can begin the rewriting process according to your specific instructions.

• The analysts involved in this discussion have essentially ruled out the possibility that saltwater corrosion could completely incapacitate the damaged pipelines. One expert pointed out that, under current conditions, there isn't actually any water inside the pipes at all, simply because the pressure differential is preventing it from getting in.
• Once enough gas leaks out and the internal pressure drops to match the ambient pressure—essentially hitting the level of the surrounding water column—it becomes physically possible for seawater to seep into the pipe at the points where the damage occurred. However, an expert noted that since there's still residual gas remaining within the lines, the water won't just flood the entire system; rather, it will likely only penetrate small sections relative to the total length of the pipeline.
• Another contributor to this thread suggested that there might actually be a way to repair the pipeline by deploying plugs from both the German and Russian sides. The idea is to seal off the damaged sections and effectively squeeze the water out of the line. Beyond that, When you look at the internal lining of a pipeline, applying an epoxy coating isn't just a maintenance task; it’s a fundamental necessity for the longevity of the entire infrastructure. It serves as a critical barrier against corrosion and helps maintain smooth flow by reducing friction along the pipe walls. If you don't get the application right from the start, you're essentially inviting premature degradation and costly repairs down the line. It effectively serves as a barrier against salt spray corrosion.
• Ulrik Lissek, representing the Nord Stream 2 operators, seems to hold onto the belief that repairing the damaged lines might actually be feasible. His take is pretty straightforward: you can't even begin to talk about solutions until you get a clear picture of the destruction, which means actually assessing the damage first. "At this stage, nobody can make any serious claims about what the situation looks like down there or what our technical options really are," Lissek remarked, notably leaving open the possibility that they might be dealing with a massive, catastrophic fissure.

There are reports coming out of the Tyumen region that suggest employees from Gazprom facilities in the Nadym area are being forcibly deployed to the front lines without ever receiving an official draft notice.

Reporting. Dozhd Citing comments made by Natalia, the wife of one of the employees.

According to Natalia, things took a sharp turn on September 26th when men were instructed to bring their military IDs to work, supposedly just for some routine data verification. Following those document checks, they were sent off for medical exams. Almost without exception, once the checkups were finished, their military cards were confiscated, and they were all reclassified as Category A—essentially deemed "fit for duty." Their personnel files were updated to read "volunteer." When anyone dared to ask what that designation actually implied, the response was blunt: "Since you showed up on your own, you're volunteers." By the very next day, they were being marched off to training. A source speaking to Dozhd reported that roughly 80 employees from Gazprom's regional operations have been swept up in this so far.

Natalia's husband managed to dodge his medical exam entirely. He insisted that his condition required a specialist surgeon rather than a general practitioner, and he gave the recruitment officers at the local processing center his word that he’d be back the very next day. Instead, he just took off, leaving the country with his wife before anyone could realize what had happened. "We all know it’s never just about a military draft notice or some formal summons, so the moment he walked out the door, I started packing my things," Natalia said.

After he stepped out, Andrew got a call from his boss. The man broke the news about his departure, but as it turned out, Andreyev’s supervisor had no idea the company had already sent its staff off to a recruitment committee. Andrew noted that the production facility where he works is considered hazardous enough that the absence of even a single employee could trigger an emergency shutdown. "And yet, here we are," he remarked, "with eighty people suddenly being ushered out all at once." He added it.

Soto previously reported, citing her sources, that authorities in the Khabarovsk Territory haven't been able to maintain adequate staffing levels for essential services. It seems they’re struggling to protect the workforce at critical infrastructure sites like the local power plants and Gazprom facilities, which are vital for keeping the region's heating systems running. According to the report, several specialists from these key utility sectors have already been drafted into military units and are simply idling away their days, waiting for their orders to deploy to Ukraine.

The Kremlin claims that the four Ukrainian regions which held referendums to join Russia will officially become part of the country this Friday. This move follows the recent announcements regarding the integration of these territories, signaling a definitive step in the ongoing geopolitical shifts within the region. It remains to be seen how the international community and the various stakeholders involved will react to this formalization of the status quo on the ground.

Anthony Hill5 said:If the Americans were truly pulling the strings here, they would have pulled them ages ago, rather than waiting until the moment the European Union had already decided to stop sourcing gas from Russia. Such a claim is fundamentally devoid of any logical basis.

And here’s another "conspiracy theory" regarding this explosion.

Gas was still being secretly funneled through Nord Stream 1 to Germany.

The proof? You can see the bubbles on the surface—it’s clearly high-pressure gas leaking out, looking exactly like a pipeline operating at its normal 100 bar capacity, rather than an empty pipe or one sitting at a measly 7 bars of pressure.

The Americans caught wind of it and decided it was time to shut things down for good.

Annexation happens tomorrow regardless. 😍 Brilliant. What an absolute moron, truly a rare breed of idiot.

quietcobra21 said:Look, the guy just knows way more than any of us here. Him talking faster than he can think is a separate issue entirely.
And then there’s the statement from the President. Even if a Pole isn't authorized to speak for the US government, Joe Biden certainly is.

The pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure—you can clearly see the sea churning and gas bubbling up to the surface. That means it was full. I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free, so I'm guessing they were selling it.

Obviously. If the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then we'll know exactly what happened. Right?

A pipeline likely needs to maintain constant pressure regardless of whether it's actively in use or not. If there’s even a minor leak, keeping the internal pressure higher than the surrounding seawater prevents the ocean from forcing its way inside. Furthermore, maintaining steady pressure limits the system to a single stress cycle. If you subject the material to constant fluctuations—pressure rising and falling repeatedly—you run the risk of metal fatigue. Just because a pipeline is pressurized doesn't mean gas is actually flowing through it.

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin says that The four regions of Ukraine that held referendums on joining Russia will be incorporated into The country on Friday.

So, I guess we get to watch the whole circus unfold tomorrow.

What’s the status on the pipeline defense?