Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

At this point, they should just sell the gas to someone else...

The pipes being laid have already been coated with anti-corrosion treatment, and the welds made by the pipe-layer are given an extra layer of that same coating.
Since these pipes are designed to sit on the ocean floor indefinitely, the impact of corrosion shouldn't be much of an issue.

One observer is the notorious Dragoslav Bokan, the commander of the Bald Eagles known for his white-label tactics.

I can only imagine what kind of circus this referendum is going to be...

🤣

Russians are dodging draft notices and skipping work, causing a massive GDP slump

Vladislav Inozemtsev discusses how mobilization hits the economy and the implications for the Kremlin

It’s becoming painfully obvious that the government wants to treat the population like cattle, but they’re hitting significant roadblocks—mainly because people actually expect resistance. This creates a perfect storm for disproportionately heavy mobilization in remote areas, rural towns, and small villages. We’ve already seen instances from the Far East, down in Buryatia or Yakutia, where nearly half the male population of certain villages is being hauled off to assembly points. This means local economies that were already stagnant are now staring down total collapse; thousands of families will be left without any income, and local small businesses and entrepreneurs are simply going to go extinct.
...
You could argue that Russia has recently functioned as an economy driven by major cities and massive corporations (with Moscow alone accounting for over 20% of the GDP), but there is another factor at play here. Unlike the more compliant rural populations, the "modern" urbanites in the big cities have zero interest in fertilizing Ukrainian soil with their bodies—and tens of thousands of them have already fled within their own borders (and I'm not just talking about those rushing toward the border crossings; we’ll likely see a state of emergency and closed borders very soon). People are avoiding living where they are officially registered, the number of men in regional city centers during the work week has dropped significantly, and movement between regions has plummeted.
...

Naturally, one would assume that military recruitment offices will soon start hunting people down at their jobs rather than at their registered addresses, which will deal the most devastating blow to the economy: millions of people would rather quit their jobs entirely than head off to war. On the flip side, economic efficiency in large cities is much higher than in rural areas, meaning that losing even a handful of employees can cause disproportionate damage to a firm. The temporary "disappearance" of at least 3 to 4 million people from the formal labor market won't go unnoticed. Consequently, I would venture to say that by November, the national GDP will shrink by at least 4-6% compared to August, and the following months will only serve to solidify that downward trend.

...

https://theins.ru/opinions/inozemtsev/255405

wiredtiger8 said:And here’s another "conspiracy theory" regarding this explosion.

Gas was still being secretly funneled through Nord Stream 1 to Germany.

The proof? You can see the bubbles on the surface—it’s clearly high-pressure gas leaking out, looking exactly like a pipeline operating at its normal 100 bar capacity, rather than an empty pipe or one sitting at a measly 7 bars of pressure.

The Americans caught wind of it and decided it was time to shut things down for good.

Why on earth would Americans, at a moment when NATO unity and cohesion are so desperately needed, choose to act against Germany and the EU?

Even a steady genius wouldn't have gone quite this far before Biden took office.

quietcobra21 said:Look, the guy just knows way more than any of us here. Him talking faster than he can think is a separate issue entirely.
And then there’s the statement from the President. Even if a Pole isn't authorized to speak for the US government, Joe Biden certainly is.

The pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure—you can clearly see the sea churning and gas bubbling up to the surface. That means it was full. I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free, so I'm guessing they were selling it.

Obviously. If the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then we'll know exactly what happened. Right?

People throw all sorts of things around, but it's all just speculation at this point. When I see someone cherry-picking evidence to fit their own narrative—and then adding the claim that some former Polish minister, someone like a high-level advisor in D.C., is getting intel on matters that are inherently top secret—well, then it becomes obvious that the guy is just a mouthpiece looking for a paycheck.

Since the pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure (you can clearly see the sea bubbling and gas escaping to the surface), it means it was full, and I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free; I’d assume they were trying to sell it.

Believe whatever you want, but verifiable facts don't care about your theories. NS2 was full of gas, but it was blocked on the German side; it never actually got the green light to operate.

As for NS1, the Russians shut it down claiming their turbines weren't working properly.

Of course. And if the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then everything will be perfectly clear, right?

No. If that happens, things are still just as murky as before.

wanderingdriver68 said:

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin says that The four regions of Ukraine that held referendums on joining Russia will be incorporated into The country on Friday.

So, I guess we get to watch the whole circus unfold tomorrow.

I am satisfied. Finally, any outcome that doesn't end with him in a grave or a prison cell has been eliminated. Now it is up to the Russians to decide how many of them they take down with them.

wanderingdriver68 said:

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin says that The four regions of Ukraine that held referendums on joining Russia will be incorporated into The country on Friday.

So, I guess we get to watch the whole circus unfold tomorrow.

Anyone with half a brain cell saw this coming from Putin. It’s hardly a shocker. Honestly, I'm just surprised it took them seven months; I expected this move much sooner. He probably intended to swallow all of Ukraine in one go, but clearly, the plan hit a snag somewhere along the way. 🤣

Look, if we're talking about Russian territory being shelled by everything Ukraine has to throw at it, then declaring war on Ukraine becomes the logical next step. ☕ I’m bracing for increased missile strikes across the rest of Ukraine—assuming they haven't emptied their warehouses yet—and more threats leveled at the West regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

Nancy Gomez26 said:A pipeline likely needs to maintain constant pressure regardless of whether it's actively in use or not. If there’s even a minor leak, keeping the internal pressure higher than the surrounding seawater prevents the ocean from forcing its way inside. Furthermore, maintaining steady pressure limits the system to a single stress cycle. If you subject the material to constant fluctuations—pressure rising and falling repeatedly—you run the risk of metal fatigue. Just because a pipeline is pressurized doesn't mean gas is actually flowing through it.

If the hydrostatic pressure at that depth is roughly 10 bar, they would only need to maintain 11 bar to stop water from leaking through weak joints. But this pipeline was sitting at 100 bar. That gas was screaming toward Germany, and like someone already mentioned, Americans decided enough was enough.
If they had just pressurized it to a certain level and left it, that pressure would have equalized with the sea floor almost immediately. You wouldn't even see gas escaping into the ocean on camera. There was definitely a massive flow...

It would be really something if the Ukrainians could pull off a slightly more intense offensive against those annexed territories tomorrow.

That was a massive amount of gas. I mean, how much volume can you actually fit into 746 miles just a single pipe?

The town of Serednye, located within the Lymansk metropolitan area in the Donetsk region, is currently under Ukrainian control.

View on twitter

rowdytiger13 said:Russia is going to call for a UN Security Council meeting regarding the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. 🙏🙏

https://n1info.com/world/russia-nord-stream/

They also called a Security Council meeting about the massacre in Izyum after those mass graves were found.
Honestly, whenever they call for these sessions, it feels almost like a public admission of guilt.

On a more political note, though, the Security Council session called by the US is probably going to be way more interesting—the one dealing with violations of UN mandates and the military annexation of occupied territories.

We can pretty much expect Russia to block it with a veto (and if that happens, the US has already said they'll just move the vote over to the General Assembly anyway), but watching how China votes will be the real kicker. The US has basically backed them into a corner here. If they vote against the resolution or even just stay neutral, it shows that all their talk about respecting territorial integrity and international law is nothing but empty rhetoric, which would totally tank their political credibility. On the flip side, if they actually vote for the resolution, they’re essentially stabbing Russia in the back, especially since they claimed back in February that their "partnership has no limits." ☕

hollowdriver13 said:They also called a Security Council meeting about the massacre in Izyum after those mass graves were found.
Honestly, whenever they call for these sessions, it feels almost like a public admission of guilt.

On a more political note, though, the Security Council session called by the US is probably going to be way more interesting—the one dealing with violations of UN mandates and the military annexation of occupied territories.

We can pretty much expect Russia to block it with a veto (and if that happens, the US has already said they'll just move the vote over to the General Assembly anyway), but watching how China votes will be the real kicker. The US has basically backed them into a corner here. If they vote against the resolution or even just stay neutral, it shows that all their talk about respecting territorial integrity and international law is nothing but empty rhetoric, which would totally tank their political credibility. On the flip side, if they actually vote for the resolution, they’re essentially stabbing Russia in the back, especially since they claimed back in February that their "partnership has no limits." ☕

How many sessions have actually been summoned because of Assad's chemical attacks? It’s the same old story repeating itself, and frankly, I am starting to suspect that absolutely no one is going to be held accountable—not even for this.

hollowdriver13 said:They also called a Security Council meeting about the massacre in Izyum after those mass graves were found.
Honestly, whenever they call for these sessions, it feels almost like a public admission of guilt.

On a more political note, though, the Security Council session called by the US is probably going to be way more interesting—the one dealing with violations of UN mandates and the military annexation of occupied territories.

We can pretty much expect Russia to block it with a veto (and if that happens, the US has already said they'll just move the vote over to the General Assembly anyway), but watching how China votes will be the real kicker. The US has basically backed them into a corner here. If they vote against the resolution or even just stay neutral, it shows that all their talk about respecting territorial integrity and international law is nothing but empty rhetoric, which would totally tank their political credibility. On the flip side, if they actually vote for the resolution, they’re essentially stabbing Russia in the back, especially since they claimed back in February that their "partnership has no limits." ☕

It should be quite something to watch. When is that session scheduled for?

quietcobra21 said:If the hydrostatic pressure at that depth is roughly 10 bar, they would only need to maintain 11 bar to stop water from leaking through weak joints. But this pipeline was sitting at 100 bar. That gas was screaming toward Germany, and like someone already mentioned, Americans decided enough was enough.
If they had just pressurized it to a certain level and left it, that pressure would have equalized with the sea floor almost immediately. You wouldn't even see gas escaping into the ocean on camera. There was definitely a massive flow...

Yes, the gas is flowing now. It’s moving from a pressurized pipeline into the surrounding ocean and then up into the atmosphere. Once the pressure inside the pipe reaches equilibrium with the water pressure at the breach, the gas will still escape, though at a reduced rate—it's lighter than water, so the water will eventually displace the volume within the pipe, depending on where the rupture sits.
A pipeline essentially has to remain under constant pressure, regardless of whether there's a leak or not. I laid out the reasoning for that in my previous post. At the end of the day, Russia couldn't care less if the gas leaks into the sea or gets burned off at a flare stack. The environmentalists might be losing their minds because gas is a far more potent greenhouse driver, but Russia doesn't give a damn about that; if anything, they likely view it as a bonus, a bit of extra leverage against Western public opinion. And frankly, the West mostly ignores the Russian leaks because we've largely accepted the reality that Russia is a business partner you can no longer reliably depend on. When politics and commerce collide like this, it stops being business and becomes pure politics.

Timothy Williams5 said:Russians are dodging draft notices and skipping work, causing a massive GDP slump

Vladislav Inozemtsev discusses how mobilization hits the economy and the implications for the Kremlin

It’s becoming painfully obvious that the government wants to treat the population like cattle, but they’re hitting significant roadblocks—mainly because people actually expect resistance. This creates a perfect storm for disproportionately heavy mobilization in remote areas, rural towns, and small villages. We’ve already seen instances from the Far East, down in Buryatia or Yakutia, where nearly half the male population of certain villages is being hauled off to assembly points. This means local economies that were already stagnant are now staring down total collapse; thousands of families will be left without any income, and local small businesses and entrepreneurs are simply going to go extinct.
...
You could argue that Russia has recently functioned as an economy driven by major cities and massive corporations (with Moscow alone accounting for over 20% of the GDP), but there is another factor at play here. Unlike the more compliant rural populations, the "modern" urbanites in the big cities have zero interest in fertilizing Ukrainian soil with their bodies—and tens of thousands of them have already fled within their own borders (and I'm not just talking about those rushing toward the border crossings; we’ll likely see a state of emergency and closed borders very soon). People are avoiding living where they are officially registered, the number of men in regional city centers during the work week has dropped significantly, and movement between regions has plummeted.
...

Naturally, one would assume that military recruitment offices will soon start hunting people down at their jobs rather than at their registered addresses, which will deal the most devastating blow to the economy: millions of people would rather quit their jobs entirely than head off to war. On the flip side, economic efficiency in large cities is much higher than in rural areas, meaning that losing even a handful of employees can cause disproportionate damage to a firm. The temporary "disappearance" of at least 3 to 4 million people from the formal labor market won't go unnoticed. Consequently, I would venture to say that by November, the national GDP will shrink by at least 4-6% compared to August, and the following months will only serve to solidify that downward trend.

...

https://theins.ru/opinions/inozemtsev/255405

The resistance to mobilization is starting to look like a highly combustible mixture—I call it the Ukrainian Smoothie😉 if that whole thing catches fire, just like our General Spider said the sky and the earth will burn, so let it all go up in flames within the borders of Russia🍿

Nancy Gomez26 said:If the pressure had truly been dropped that low right before the sabotage—assuming the pipeline sits 330 feet below the ocean floor—we wouldn't be seeing this massive plume of gas bubbles on the surface. At that depth, the ocean exerts more pressure than those alleged 7 bars. Since gas is lighter than water, some would certainly escape to the surface depending on the hole's size and location, but it wouldn't manifest in such a concentrated, massive volume. The reality is that the pipeline was under significant pressure; it’s been leaking for days (which explains the dropping pressure), and the breach itself is substantial—potentially a full-section rupture.

The whole idea of how many bubbles get created and just how much raw power is released when a pressurized container fails isn't actually about the pressure itself—it's all about the volume of the container, which in this case is the capacity of the pipeline.

I mean, think about it: 1 bar is an enormous amount of pressure, right? But if you take a tiny little 4-ounce container under 1 bar of pressure and smash it, nothing crazy happens, just a little "puff." Why? Because the capacity is tiny.

But if you take a massive 25,000-gallon tank of water under that same 1 bar and crack it open, you're going to have a violent explosion because the capacity is massive.

So, the theory that it's all about "crazy" pressure totally falls apart here. The bubble formation and the sheer force resulting from the rupture depend on the capacity of that pipe, not just the pressure reading. Plus, you have to remember gas is compressible under pressure, which basically gives it even more effective capacity.

Think of pressure like voltage. It's potential. Whereas current is like the flow or the capacity. Pressure by itself isn't dangerous if you're dealing with a tiny capacity. And honestly, even a "low" pressure of one bar becomes absolutely terrifying once you give it enough capacity behind it.

wanderingdriver68 said:It should be quite something to watch. When is that session scheduled for?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...endum-results/

The resolution is still being drafted, so they haven't set a specific date for the session just yet.

Joshua Bishop3 said:The whole idea of how many bubbles get created and just how much raw power is released when a pressurized container fails isn't actually about the pressure itself—it's all about the volume of the container, which in this case is the capacity of the pipeline.

I mean, think about it: 1 bar is an enormous amount of pressure, right? But if you take a tiny little 4-ounce container under 1 bar of pressure and smash it, nothing crazy happens, just a little "puff." Why? Because the capacity is tiny.

But if you take a massive 25,000-gallon tank of water under that same 1 bar and crack it open, you're going to have a violent explosion because the capacity is massive.

So, the theory that it's all about "crazy" pressure totally falls apart here. The bubble formation and the sheer force resulting from the rupture depend on the capacity of that pipe, not just the pressure reading. Plus, you have to remember gas is compressible under pressure, which basically gives it even more effective capacity.

Think of pressure like voltage. It's potential. Whereas current is like the flow or the capacity. Pressure by itself isn't dangerous if you're dealing with a tiny capacity. And honestly, even a "low" pressure of one bar becomes absolutely terrifying once you give it enough capacity behind it.

I find myself in agreement with those points. That said, higher pressure means more gas will be discharged into the surrounding medium—the ocean, in this instance—which exists at a much lower pressure. Naturally, a larger vessel (calculated by the cross-sectional area of the pipeline multiplied by its length) will release an even greater volume of gas into the water. As the pressure differential narrows—because the pressure within the leaking vessel drops while the ambient ocean pressure remains constant—the rate of leakage will inevitably slow down over time. Based on the imagery we've seen, the initial discharge was incredibly intense; from an aircraft, you could clearly see the gas erupting at the surface, 100 meters directly above the breach.

So what now—do the turbines just keep pumping gas regardless of the loss, just to make sure seawater doesn't get inside the pipes?