Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

wiredtiger8 said:And honestly? I don't think Putin even thinks he's losing.

The mobilization itself is just a desperate move. Whether or not he actually believes it’ll turn the tide—that's irrelevant.

analogbear5 said:The mobilization itself is just a desperate move. Whether or not he actually believes it’ll turn the tide—that's irrelevant.

How is that a desperate move? If the other side has already mobilized everyone who can walk or crawl, what choice do you have left?

He probably knows his troops aren't elite, but let's be real—it's not like these Ukrainian conscripts are some kind of Navy SEALs either.

analogbear5 said:The mobilization itself is just a desperate move. Whether or not he actually believes it’ll turn the tide—that's irrelevant.

Putin has already lost this war. It’s just a matter of when he finally admits it and how many more people he sends to die in the meantime. I think he knows it too, but he's backed into a corner.

Joshua Myers432 said:How is that a desperate move? If the other side has already mobilized everyone who can walk or crawl, what choice do you have left?

He probably knows his troops aren't elite, but let's be real—it's not like these Ukrainian conscripts are some kind of Navy SEALs either.

Because look, once you start drafting old guys and handing out rusted-out gear, you're pretty much defining desperation. The guy invaded UA thinking he’d just roll into Kyiv in three days—they even had some parade tank at the start, which was wild. Then all this circus started, and honestly, after more than half a year, they haven't even managed to take all of the Donbas. On top of that, the sanctions are hitting hard and their military looks like it's about to fall apart. Putin can hallucinate whatever he wants regarding how great or important he is, but let's be real—the only thing stopping them from literally tearing him apart is the nuclear deterrent. That's just the reality of it.

Joshua Myers432 said:How is that a desperate move? If the other side has already mobilized everyone who can walk or crawl, what choice do you have left?

He probably knows his troops aren't elite, but let's be real—it's not like these Ukrainian conscripts are some kind of Navy SEALs either.

My take—purely subjective, obviously—is that Putin dragged his feet on mobilization for a reason. People were talking about the necessity of it back in the spring, and he knew exactly what he was doing by waiting.

Now that it’s actually happening, it feels rushed and poorly timed. The bureaucratic machinery needed for this hasn't really been functional since those half-baked reforms back in '09, and anyone with even basic training is already halfway to the front lines in Ukraine.

The fallout from this mobilization is going to hit the economy hard, too. It puts a massive strain on the social contract typical of autocratic regimes: we give you freedom, you ensure our survival. When that breaks, everything breaks.

analogbear5 said:My take—purely subjective, obviously—is that Putin dragged his feet on mobilization for a reason. People were talking about the necessity of it back in the spring, and he knew exactly what he was doing by waiting.

Now that it’s actually happening, it feels rushed and poorly timed. The bureaucratic machinery needed for this hasn't really been functional since those half-baked reforms back in '09, and anyone with even basic training is already halfway to the front lines in Ukraine.

The fallout from this mobilization is going to hit the economy hard, too. It puts a massive strain on the social contract typical of autocratic regimes: we give you freedom, you ensure our survival. When that breaks, everything breaks.

But what's the actual reason behind the delay?

Kate Cook27 said:But what's the actual reason behind the delay?

He probably figured the Ukrainians wouldn't scale up enough to actually win on the battlefield.
Just another massive miscalculation in a long line of them. Plus, mobilization isn't cheap. You need morale, too. We see the fallout: recruits who just fill out a uniform and carry a rifle, and border crossings that are completely jammed. I guess he at least predicted the chaos, if nothing else.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Because look, once you start drafting old guys and handing out rusted-out gear, you're pretty much defining desperation. The guy invaded UA thinking he’d just roll into Kyiv in three days—they even had some parade tank at the start, which was wild. Then all this circus started, and honestly, after more than half a year, they haven't even managed to take all of the Donbas. On top of that, the sanctions are hitting hard and their military looks like it's about to fall apart. Putin can hallucinate whatever he wants regarding how great or important he is, but let's be real—the only thing stopping them from literally tearing him apart is the nuclear deterrent. That's just the reality of it.

It really feels like Russia is panicking—between the forced mobilizations, the rigged referendums, the annexations, and the constant nuclear threats... it's getting intense. Putin simply cannot afford to lose this war, and everything points to that desperation. All the reasonable ways to end this conflict have passed them by. They're just stumbling from one mistake to the next now. And then you have Peskov claiming the "special operation" won't end until the Donbas is fully under their control. They've completely lost touch with reality.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Because look, once you start drafting old guys and handing out rusted-out gear, you're pretty much defining desperation. The guy invaded UA thinking he’d just roll into Kyiv in three days—they even had some parade tank at the start, which was wild. Then all this circus started, and honestly, after more than half a year, they haven't even managed to take all of the Donbas. On top of that, the sanctions are hitting hard and their military looks like it's about to fall apart. Putin can hallucinate whatever he wants regarding how great or important he is, but let's be real—the only thing stopping them from literally tearing him apart is the nuclear deterrent. That's just the reality of it.

And what do you think? Is it really such a struggle to snap a photo of some rusty AK-47 and an old man in Ukrainian fatigues? Or a crowd of people fleeing Ukraine? You see them everywhere across America, and I can only imagine how many there are in places like Poland or Germany. It’s just as likely that Russian media is drumming up their own narrative about the Ukrainian exodus.

Besides, that figure of 300,000 is probably a lie; the number of mobilized troops could be much higher.

Joshua Myers432 said:Everyone would show up if the incentive was right. 🎉

Russians aren't exactly used to stepping up and protesting, and honestly, who knows? Maybe they actually agree with Putin's policies.

What other nations does this remind us of😁?

Joshua Myers432 said:And what do you think? Is it really such a struggle to snap a photo of some rusty AK-47 and an old man in Ukrainian fatigues? Or a crowd of people fleeing Ukraine? You see them everywhere across America, and I can only imagine how many there are in places like Poland or Germany. It’s just as likely that Russian media is drumming up their own narrative about the Ukrainian exodus.

Besides, that figure of 300,000 is probably a lie; the number of mobilized troops could be much higher.

Well, if there are four waves of mobilization at roughly 300,000 each, we're looking at a different story entirely.

Ukrainian soldiers are fighting with morale that’s absolutely through the roof. 😁
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...a_high_morale/

quietcobra21 said:He probably figured the Ukrainians wouldn't scale up enough to actually win on the battlefield.
Just another massive miscalculation in a long line of them. Plus, mobilization isn't cheap. You need morale, too. We see the fallout: recruits who just fill out a uniform and carry a rifle, and border crossings that are completely jammed. I guess he at least predicted the chaos, if nothing else.

I mean, they clearly had no clue what they were starting back in 2014. Did they seriously think they’d be greeted with flower petals? That people wouldn't fight back? They probably figured Zelenskyy and the rest would just pack up and run, too.

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/st...50978685444104
Is Lukashenko being backed into a corner where he has no choice but to join the war openly by deploying 120,000 troops?

Kate Cook27 said:But what's the actual reason behind the delay?

- He’d basically be admitting the whole operation isn't going according to plan—making mobilization the "Plan B."
- It's an unpopular move. Most people are still backing the war based on what they see on the news; this makes them feel the actual cost personally.
- Putin is notoriously careful about public support—for some reason, he's clearly not looking to end up like Gaddafi.
- Domestic propaganda hasn't quite managed to rally enough people to actually volunteer for the front lines.
- The demographic most likely to get drafted first—the rural, lower-income folks and those with prior military service—is already tapped out.
- Pulling workers out of the economy when businesses still have to cover payroll is a massive hit.
- Equipment shortages and extra strain on the supply chain.
- Blowing a hole in the budget when things are already in the red.
- Even now, it's just a "partial" mobilization. A full-scale draft would crank the stakes way up.

Is Belarus getting pulled into this fight too?

http://www.twitter.com/PavelLatushka...Czma2UkN0rAAAA

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers during November-February. Belarus undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse.

So—Russian troops moving into Belarus, plus local mobilization on top of that? It sounds like Lukashenko gave the green light, probably during a meeting in Sochi. Are we looking at a new push toward Kyiv?? 😁 Or maybe Kharkiv?

Lukashenko would be facing a massive revolt from both his military and his people in no time at all. I just don't buy it.

Kate Cook27 said:I mean, they clearly had no clue what they were starting back in 2014. Did they seriously think they’d be greeted with flower petals? That people wouldn't fight back? They probably figured Zelenskyy and the rest would just pack up and run, too.

Given how much they've had to scramble and change their original plans, it's pretty obvious that was their mindset.

analogbear5 said:- He’d basically be admitting the whole operation isn't going according to plan—making mobilization the "Plan B."
- It's an unpopular move. Most people are still backing the war based on what they see on the news; this makes them feel the actual cost personally.
- Putin is notoriously careful about public support—for some reason, he's clearly not looking to end up like Gaddafi.
- Domestic propaganda hasn't quite managed to rally enough people to actually volunteer for the front lines.
- The demographic most likely to get drafted first—the rural, lower-income folks and those with prior military service—is already tapped out.
- Pulling workers out of the economy when businesses still have to cover payroll is a massive hit.
- Equipment shortages and extra strain on the supply chain.
- Blowing a hole in the budget when things are already in the red.
- Even now, it's just a "partial" mobilization. A full-scale draft would crank the stakes way up.

In your opinion, how much of what you just listed is actually driven by the sanctions from the EU and the USA? Could you try to break that down in percentages for me?

Kate Cook27 said:Is Belarus getting pulled into this fight too?

http://www.twitter.com/PavelLatushka...Czma2UkN0rAAAA

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers during November-February. Belarus undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse.

So—Russian troops moving into Belarus, plus local mobilization on top of that? It sounds like Lukashenko gave the green light, probably during a meeting in Sochi. Are we looking at a new push toward Kyiv?? 😁 Or maybe Kharkiv?

I don't buy it. Not unless he’s sitting on some intel we haven't seen yet.