Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Kate Cook27 said:Is Belarus getting pulled into this fight too?

http://www.twitter.com/PavelLatushka...Czma2UkN0rAAAA

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers during November-February. Belarus undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse.

So—Russian troops moving into Belarus, plus local mobilization on top of that? It sounds like Lukashenko gave the green light, probably during a meeting in Sochi. Are we looking at a new push toward Kyiv?? 😁 Or maybe Kharkiv?

What if NATO just puts 50,000 troops on combat alert in Poland, right on the border with Belarus?

electricstag9 said:https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/st...50978685444104
Is Lukashenko being backed into a corner where he has no choice but to join the war openly by deploying 120,000 troops?

The CIA hasn't said a word about it yet—which, if you ask me, means we're still quite a long way off from that scenario actually playing out. 😬

quietcobra21 said:What if NATO just puts 50,000 troops on combat alert in Poland, right on the border with Belarus?

Honestly, that should have happened ages ago. If you ask me—speaking from the absolute comfort of my office chair here at work—I’d say they need to put at least 150k boots on the ground.

analogbear5 said:- He’d basically be admitting the whole operation isn't going according to plan—making mobilization the "Plan B."
- It's an unpopular move. Most people are still backing the war based on what they see on the news; this makes them feel the actual cost personally.
- Putin is notoriously careful about public support—for some reason, he's clearly not looking to end up like Gaddafi.
- Domestic propaganda hasn't quite managed to rally enough people to actually volunteer for the front lines.
- The demographic most likely to get drafted first—the rural, lower-income folks and those with prior military service—is already tapped out.
- Pulling workers out of the economy when businesses still have to cover payroll is a massive hit.
- Equipment shortages and extra strain on the supply chain.
- Blowing a hole in the budget when things are already in the red.
- Even now, it's just a "partial" mobilization. A full-scale draft would crank the stakes way up.

👍. Putin is cautious about his relationship with Americans because they're what keep him in power. Honestly, he doesn't care if the rest of the world isolates him—as long as Americans stay behind him, keep being "apolitical," and maintain that "not my business" attitude, he has the freedom to do whatever he wants. He could take out politicians in downtown Moscow like Nemcov, or whoever else, and people won't revolt—they have an existence that Putin made possible. Plus, there's that general vibe that a strongman is the best kind of leader. But at the same time, he can't afford to lose. It’s a tough spot to be in.

Kate Cook27 said:Is Belarus getting pulled into this fight too?

http://www.twitter.com/PavelLatushka...Czma2UkN0rAAAA

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers during November-February. Belarus undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse.

So—Russian troops moving into Belarus, plus local mobilization on top of that? It sounds like Lukashenko gave the green light, probably during a meeting in Sochi. Are we looking at a new push toward Kyiv?? 😁 Or maybe Kharkiv?

Honestly, since the conflict began, I feel like I’ve seen reports claiming Belarus is gearing up for war at least fifty different times.

Lukashenko would have to be incredibly foolish to jump headlong into a losing war, and he isn't quite that dim-witted. It serves him much better to just run military exercises near the Ukrainian border every few weeks; that way, he supports Putin without actually putting himself on the line.

The only real way Belarus gets actively involved is if the KGB Lukashenko holds a gun to his head, but even then, you have to wonder whether the country or the military would actually follow through with an invasion of Ukraine or if they'd just revolt.

Joshua Myers432 said:I don't buy it. Not unless he’s sitting on some intel we haven't seen yet.

We'll see. They were just in Sochi. Lukashenko owes Putin big time, but most Belarusians are actually against Lukashenko and against this war. It really comes down to one thing: is Lukashenko more afraid of Putin, or is he more afraid of handing weapons over to the Belarusians?

If this turns out to be true, the picture gets very clear—Putin wants Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. He isn't going to care about the cost in human lives.

Kate Cook27 said:Is Belarus getting pulled into this fight too?

http://www.twitter.com/PavelLatushka...Czma2UkN0rAAAA

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers during November-February. Belarus undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse.

So—Russian troops moving into Belarus, plus local mobilization on top of that? It sounds like Lukashenko gave the green light, probably during a meeting in Sochi. Are we looking at a new push toward Kyiv?? 😁 Or maybe Kharkiv?

I mean, I'm pretty sure this is just the blueprint for when they actually pull the trigger on an annexation. Once that happens, Russia will probably just officially declare war on Ukraine, teaming up with Belarus for a full-blown invasion and takeover. They’ll likely try to run it using those professional Belarusian units while just throwing Russian infantry at the problem like cannon fodder. At least, that's my guess.

Joshua Myers432 said:I don't buy it. Not unless he’s sitting on some intel we haven't seen yet.

So yeah, maybe they'll just declare war and launch some massive, coordinated attack on all of Ukraine at once. I guess that's always an option.

Michael Davis9 said:Honestly, since the conflict began, I feel like I’ve seen reports claiming Belarus is gearing up for war at least fifty different times.

Lukashenko would have to be incredibly foolish to jump headlong into a losing war, and he isn't quite that dim-witted. It serves him much better to just run military exercises near the Ukrainian border every few weeks; that way, he supports Putin without actually putting himself on the line.

The only real way Belarus gets actively involved is if the KGB Lukashenko holds a gun to his head, but even then, you have to wonder whether the country or the military would actually follow through with an invasion of Ukraine or if they'd just revolt.

Like I mentioned earlier, it really just comes down to how much Lukashenko fears Putin—what leverage does Putin actually have over him? We'll just have to wait and see.

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, I'm pretty sure this is just the blueprint for when they actually pull the trigger on an annexation. Once that happens, Russia will probably just officially declare war on Ukraine, teaming up with Belarus for a full-blown invasion and takeover. They’ll likely try to run it using those professional Belarusian units while just throwing Russian infantry at the problem like cannon fodder. At least, that's my guess.

So yeah, maybe they'll just declare war and launch some massive, coordinated attack on all of Ukraine at once. I guess that's always an option.

And get this—back eight years ago, Putin was claiming they only wanted Crimea, not the rest of Ukraine 🙄. I think I heard some woman at a protest in Dagestan say it perfectly: "Ukraine isn't part of the Soviet Union anymore."

So, is Russia actually losing this war even though they annexed territory roughly the size of Canada? That’s basically the economic heart of Ukraine we're talking about. Just a reminder: Ukraine lost access to its ports, vital mineral resources, a massive chunk of its fertile farmland, and the entire Sea of Azov.

I'll say it again: this looks like nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. If they don't hold everything up to the Kharkiv-Odesa line, it's a loss in my book.

For those who don't know, Stalin annexed the Baltic states after WWII. The West refused to recognize it—just like they didn't recognize the communist government in Poland—but they still cooperated with the Soviet Union whenever it was convenient.

Ultimately, the West will probably do exactly what they did after the annexation of Crimea: they'll talk a big game and criticize publicly, while quietly accepting that the territory belongs to Russia now.

It seems Ukrainians haven't learned much from history. The English threw the Czech Republic to Hitler without a second thought, and Churchill certainly didn't hesitate to hand all of Poland over to Stalin at Yalta.

Lisa Patel4 said:So, is Russia actually losing this war even though they annexed territory roughly the size of Canada? That’s basically the economic heart of Ukraine we're talking about. Just a reminder: Ukraine lost access to its ports, vital mineral resources, a massive chunk of its fertile farmland, and the entire Sea of Azov.

I'll say it again: this looks like nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. If they don't hold everything up to the Kharkiv-Odesa line, it's a loss in my book.

For those who don't know, Stalin annexed the Baltic states after WWII. The West refused to recognize it—just like they didn't recognize the communist government in Poland—but they still cooperated with the Soviet Union whenever it was convenient.

Ultimately, the West will probably do exactly what they did after the annexation of Crimea: they'll talk a big game and criticize publicly, while quietly accepting that the territory belongs to Russia now.

It seems Ukrainians haven't learned much from history. The English threw the Czech Republic to Hitler without a second thought, and Churchill certainly didn't hesitate to hand all of Poland over to Stalin at Yalta.

Right, because we can clearly see the West sitting idly by doing nothing... 🤦
I love the people reporting news from a parallel universe.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Right, because we can clearly see the West sitting idly by doing nothing... 🤦
I love the people reporting news from a parallel universe.

Like I said, the list of allies the West has abandoned is pretty massive. It’ll be the same deal with Ukraine. As soon as they decide it’s become a net loss, they'll throw them under the bus. They certainly didn't have any trouble doing that in the past.

Lisa Patel4 said:So, is Russia actually losing this war even though they annexed territory roughly the size of Canada? That’s basically the economic heart of Ukraine we're talking about. Just a reminder: Ukraine lost access to its ports, vital mineral resources, a massive chunk of its fertile farmland, and the entire Sea of Azov.

I'll say it again: this looks like nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. If they don't hold everything up to the Kharkiv-Odesa line, it's a loss in my book.

For those who don't know, Stalin annexed the Baltic states after WWII. The West refused to recognize it—just like they didn't recognize the communist government in Poland—but they still cooperated with the Soviet Union whenever it was convenient.

Ultimately, the West will probably do exactly what they did after the annexation of Crimea: they'll talk a big game and criticize publicly, while quietly accepting that the territory belongs to Russia now.

It seems Ukrainians haven't learned much from history. The English threw the Czech Republic to Hitler without a second thought, and Churchill certainly didn't hesitate to hand all of Poland over to Stalin at Yalta.

The West stayed quiet about Crimea, but I don't think they'll stay silent this time. It won't matter how much Putin annexes things—the territory will keep being liberated. The Ukrainians are pushing forward, and we'll just see where it leads.

Lisa Patel4 said:Like I said, the list of allies the West has abandoned is pretty massive. It’ll be the same deal with Ukraine. As soon as they decide it’s become a net loss, they'll throw them under the bus. They certainly didn't have any trouble doing that in the past.

Obviously. We can all see the West isn't doing much to help Ukraine right now.
They probably got spooked by endless, empty threats from Putin and his massive military. I read somewhere that they're already digging trenches near Lisbon. ☕

Lisa Patel4 said:So, is Russia actually losing this war even though they annexed territory roughly the size of Canada? That’s basically the economic heart of Ukraine we're talking about. Just a reminder: Ukraine lost access to its ports, vital mineral resources, a massive chunk of its fertile farmland, and the entire Sea of Azov.

I'll say it again: this looks like nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. If they don't hold everything up to the Kharkiv-Odesa line, it's a loss in my book.

For those who don't know, Stalin annexed the Baltic states after WWII. The West refused to recognize it—just like they didn't recognize the communist government in Poland—but they still cooperated with the Soviet Union whenever it was convenient.

Ultimately, the West will probably do exactly what they did after the annexation of Crimea: they'll talk a big game and criticize publicly, while quietly accepting that the territory belongs to Russia now.

It seems Ukrainians haven't learned much from history. The English threw the Czech Republic to Hitler without a second thought, and Churchill certainly didn't hesitate to hand all of Poland over to Stalin at Yalta.

Let’s be realistic—what can the West actually do? They slapped sanctions on Russia, armed Ukraine, and isolated Russia. That’s the extent of it. If the Russians are strong enough to annex parts of Ukraine, you can howl at the Moon all you want.

Lisa Patel4 said:Like I said, the list of allies the West has abandoned is pretty massive. It’ll be the same deal with Ukraine. As soon as they decide it’s become a net loss, they'll throw them under the bus. They certainly didn't have any trouble doing that in the past.

Until then, Ukrainians are right there at the gates of Moscow, taking down Putin alongside the Russians.

Lisa Patel4 said:So, is Russia actually losing this war even though they annexed territory roughly the size of Canada? That’s basically the economic heart of Ukraine we're talking about. Just a reminder: Ukraine lost access to its ports, vital mineral resources, a massive chunk of its fertile farmland, and the entire Sea of Azov.

I'll say it again: this looks like nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. If they don't hold everything up to the Kharkiv-Odesa line, it's a loss in my book.

For those who don't know, Stalin annexed the Baltic states after WWII. The West refused to recognize it—just like they didn't recognize the communist government in Poland—but they still cooperated with the Soviet Union whenever it was convenient.

Ultimately, the West will probably do exactly what they did after the annexation of Crimea: they'll talk a big game and criticize publicly, while quietly accepting that the territory belongs to Russia now.

It seems Ukrainians haven't learned much from history. The English threw the Czech Republic to Hitler without a second thought, and Churchill certainly didn't hesitate to hand all of Poland over to Stalin at Yalta.

Russia has lost on every single front—the battlefield, the moral high ground, the economy, and the human cost. If you can't see that, there's honestly nothing I can do to help you.

You’d be better off looking at what’s happening inside Russia right now. They're throwing mothers into military transport trucks just because they dared to show up at a protest, leaving baby strollers abandoned on the sidewalk.
View on twitter
It's a complete collapse of Russian society and the state—a total defeat for common sense.

Kate Cook27 said:The West stayed quiet about Crimea, but I don't think they'll stay silent this time. It won't matter how much Putin annexes things—the territory will keep being liberated. The Ukrainians are pushing forward, and we'll just see where it leads.

I wouldn't say that, though. Honestly, the help Ukraine's gotten so far has been pretty incredible.

Joshua Myers432 said:Let’s be realistic—what can the West actually do? They slapped sanctions on Russia, armed Ukraine, and isolated Russia. That’s the extent of it. If the Russians are strong enough to annex parts of Ukraine, you can howl at the Moon all you want.

Pretty much the only thing worse than this would be WW3. I don't think anyone can honestly say the West has just abandoned Ukraine to its fate right now.

Joshua Myers432 said:Let’s be realistic—what can the West actually do? They slapped sanctions on Russia, armed Ukraine, and isolated Russia. That’s the extent of it. If the Russians are strong enough to annex parts of Ukraine, you can howl at the Moon all you want.

And what does an annexation actually achieve for them? Absolutely nothing, as long as Ukraine keeps fighting. And they will, backed by massive amounts of military aid from the world's largest economies. What exactly can Ruzsiaj do? Bark at the Moon and throw around nuclear threats because they're clearly losing the war.

Melissa Rivera5 said:I wouldn't say that, though. Honestly, the help Ukraine's gotten so far has been pretty incredible.

Pretty much the only thing worse than this would be WW3. I don't think anyone can honestly say the West has just abandoned Ukraine to its fate right now.

Between 2014 and 2022, the aid was way more limited than what we're seeing now—it seems like they finally realized where they went wrong.
They haven't been left hanging; if anything, I don't think any other country has ever seen this kind of help.