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Home › Society › Politics › War in Ukraine › Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Started by Charles Ross3 · · 👁 43 views · 9.2K replies

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Participants Charles Ross3rowdytiger13electrichawk94nimblemoose2Noah Ward2George Robinson43Larry Wilson25Larry Walker24Amanda Allen4Noah Sanchez2Paul Thomas46Jessica Peterson2Nancy Gomez26Nathan Evans78William Anderson5electricsurfer47gentlestag15wiredseal7Thomas Nelson25Donna Harris11Nicholas WatsonJack Kelly5Carol Johnson21Kate Cook27 …
Melissa Rivera5 Melissa Rivera5 Regular
432 messages
joined Jun 2024
#8861 ·
Gregory Ramos3 said:But then how on earth are they going to defend Belarus while trying to keep a lid on all those potential internal riots?

Quote : The Belarusian military currently Has 50,000 soldiers and officers

If he actually goes through with that, he'll be an even bigger idiot than Putin.

Who knows, I guess.

Gregory Ramos3 said:But then how on earth are they going to defend Belarus while trying to keep a lid on all those potential internal riots?

Quote : The Belarusian military currently Has 50,000 soldiers and officers

If he actually goes through with that, he'll be an even bigger idiot than Putin.

Well, yeah. He basically handed himself over to Putin, and now maybe he's just being blackmailed by some really nasty stuff.
Nancy Gomez26 Nancy Gomez26 Regular
787 messages
joined Jan 2018
#8862 ·
silentsurfer3 said:Look, I've been saying this since day one, and people just laughed at me—like, how can a country with only 40k soldiers even dream of starting a war with Ukraine? Meanwhile, those Iskanders are staring right at Poland.

Honestly, Lukashenko is toast the second his little buddy falls.

On the Ukrainian side, there is a significant number of Belarusians fighting specifically to oppose Lukashenko's regime. The entire Western aid infrastructure is already positioned on the ground. If Lukashenko were to actually move against Ukraine, there is a very tangible possibility of a domestic uprising erupting within Belarus itself. The border with Ukraine is long and porous, and the logistical setup is already there—so why wouldn't it happen? It would present Russia with a massive headache and an unwanted distraction; I highly doubt they could manage a second front while they are already fully committed in Ukraine. Ukraine would gain a stabilized border with Belarus and a surprisingly reliable ally. Not to mention the Baltic states, who would certainly welcome and support such a shift. If this succeeds, the next stop might just be... Red Square.
Paul Thomas46 Paul Thomas46 Active Member
101 messages
joined Jan 2018
#8863 ·
The annexation they’re planning is actually a massive deal...
Yeah, I know everyone wants to just lump this all into the general Russian shitshow—but honestly, it’s not quite that simple.

It's serious because the international community (basically the Western world) is going to find themselves in a very, very tight spot sooner rather than later.
The entire concept of the international order and international law—as far as those high-level institutions are concerned—only really exists as long as everyone decides to play by the rules.
If Russia manages to walk away from this with any kind of gain—especially regarding territory—it will be as if they just rewrote international law on the fly.
See, war itself isn't banned under those generally accepted international standards (war crimes are, obviously, via various conventions and such), but an annexation like this? That is strictly forbidden.
stormybear25 stormybear25 Active Member
62 messages
joined Sep 2022
#8864 ·
The Ukrainian military has officially liberated Shandryholov in the Donetsk region.
View on twitter
Richard Wilson4 Richard Wilson4 Veteran
2K messages
joined Sep 2009
#8865 ·
Nancy Gomez26 said:On the Ukrainian side, there is a significant number of Belarusians fighting specifically to oppose Lukashenko's regime. The entire Western aid infrastructure is already positioned on the ground. If Lukashenko were to actually move against Ukraine, there is a very tangible possibility of a domestic uprising erupting within Belarus itself. The border with Ukraine is long and porous, and the logistical setup is already there—so why wouldn't it happen? It would present Russia with a massive headache and an unwanted distraction; I highly doubt they could manage a second front while they are already fully committed in Ukraine. Ukraine would gain a stabilized border with Belarus and a surprisingly reliable ally. Not to mention the Baltic states, who would certainly welcome and support such a shift. If this succeeds, the next stop might just be... Red Square.

The catch is that if a civil war breaks out in Belarus, Russia could start dropping saboteurs into Poland or near the Baltic Sea.
placidtiger142 placidtiger142 Member
37 messages
joined Feb 2023
#8866 ·
Richard Wilson4 said:The catch is that if a civil war breaks out in Belarus, Russia could start dropping saboteurs into Poland or near the Baltic Sea.

Stop talking nonsense, they couldn't care less.

Up until now, they could just pull back whenever they felt like it, but not anymore. Now they're stuck having to defend their precious little Russian empire.

Basically, it matters to them... because there's no turning back now.

Meaning, it matters because they're totally screwed.
Kate Ross8 Kate Ross8 Newcomer
8 messages
joined May 2023
#8867 ·
Nancy Gomez26 said:On the Ukrainian side, there is a significant number of Belarusians fighting specifically to oppose Lukashenko's regime. The entire Western aid infrastructure is already positioned on the ground. If Lukashenko were to actually move against Ukraine, there is a very tangible possibility of a domestic uprising erupting within Belarus itself. The border with Ukraine is long and porous, and the logistical setup is already there—so why wouldn't it happen? It would present Russia with a massive headache and an unwanted distraction; I highly doubt they could manage a second front while they are already fully committed in Ukraine. Ukraine would gain a stabilized border with Belarus and a surprisingly reliable ally. Not to mention the Baltic states, who would certainly welcome and support such a shift. If this succeeds, the next stop might just be... Red Square.

The real question right now is what the top brass in the Belarusian military is thinking. Imagine one decisive military strike followed by calling for elections supervised by the USA, the UK, the Baltics, and Poland—even without the rest of the EU involved. It would free up all those Ukrainian resources currently tied down at the border, letting them relax that sector and focus their energy elsewhere. The Russians just don't have the capacity for that right now; they're fleeing across borders, while Navalny is in prison, Nemtsov is gone, and we have Gorbachev.
And honestly, Putin escalating through Belarus isn't necessarily a bad thing for Ukraine if NATO gets directly involved. Because if they just sit around waiting for Putin's tactical moves? Well, they'll be waiting a long time.
Gregory Ramos3 Gregory Ramos3 Active Member
220 messages
joined Feb 2022
#8868 ·
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartransl...39006560059392

Women over in Sevastopol are out there cheering on the guys who are "so stoked" to head off to the front lines

One lady mentioned her son just got mobilized, but hey, they’ve still got plenty of others—like this 37-year-old dad with three kids running around🤦
Olivia Turner49 Olivia Turner49 Active Member
51 messages
joined Nov 2015
#8869 ·


So, I was watching this segment where Robert Baric was talking to N1

And honestly, the extra stuff he dropped about nuclear missiles? It’s pretty much anything goes at this point. Everything is on the table.

Regarding NS, he’s claiming they were built by the Russians and that they could shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine at any given moment.
The whole plan seems to be cutting off the entire American energy supply from Russian gas right in the middle of winter. Just pure chaos.
Hannah Alvarez2 Hannah Alvarez2 Active Member
54 messages
joined Jun 2013
#8870 ·
Olivia Turner49 said:


So, I was watching this segment where Robert Baric was talking to N1

And honestly, the extra stuff he dropped about nuclear missiles? It’s pretty much anything goes at this point. Everything is on the table.

Regarding NS, he’s claiming they were built by the Russians and that they could shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine at any given moment.
The whole plan seems to be cutting off the entire American energy supply from Russian gas right in the middle of winter. Just pure chaos.

This actually sounds somewhat reassuring. I’d highly recommend anyone freaking out (myself included) to give this a watch. Now, how accurate it really is? God only knows, but I'm pretty sure he knows his stuff way more than I do.
Olivia Turner49 Olivia Turner49 Active Member
51 messages
joined Nov 2015
#8871 ·
Hannah Alvarez2 said:This actually sounds somewhat reassuring. I’d highly recommend anyone freaking out (myself included) to give this a watch. Now, how accurate it really is? God only knows, but I'm pretty sure he knows his stuff way more than I do.

Well, it sure doesn't sound soothing to me.
Between NS and that pipeline in Poland being shut down, we're getting squeezed.
In just the last week, they've been planning to shut down our own line heading toward Ukraine. Pretty soon, we'll be left with nothing but the Turkish pipeline and that's it.
Benjamin Taylor6 Benjamin Taylor6 Regular
577 messages
joined Apr 2017
#8872 ·
Olivia Turner49 said:Well, it sure doesn't sound soothing to me.
Between NS and that pipeline in Poland being shut down, we're getting squeezed.
In just the last week, they've been planning to shut down our own line heading toward Ukraine. Pretty soon, we'll be left with nothing but the Turkish pipeline and that's it.


It looks like the United States will likely become the primary source of liquefied natural gas for Germany and the rest of Europe. This comes from a scientific analysis conducted by the University of Cologne Institute for Energy Economics, according to Deutsche Welle. The study was commissioned by the energy industry group "Zukunft gas." According to the findings, Russian gas will either be unavailable or heavily restricted in the near future, meaning current gas prices won't even return to 2018 levels until 2030—and that’s assuming demand drops significantly.

In their scientific study titled "Development of Global Gas Markets through 2030," the authors outline their vision for how gas supplies will evolve through the end of the decade following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent halt in gas deliveries.
Gregory Ramos3 Gregory Ramos3 Active Member
220 messages
joined Feb 2022
#8873 ·
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartransl...66184845234176

Man, those winding roads they’re forcing the newly mobilized Russ troops through look absolutely brutal... I'm sure that's doing wonders for their morale, haha ☕
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8874 ·
66% of Russians are dreading mobilization (Pew Research Center). Back in February, when Putin first kicked off the military operation, that number was sitting at 28%.

Back then, most people were still buying what the president was selling—the whole "it's just professionals" pitch. So, when the partial mobilization decree actually hit, it triggered a massive wave of negative vibes among Americans:

- anxiety, fear, pure terror (47%),
- shock (23%),
- anger and resentment (13%),
- depression (11%),
- shame (5%).

The positive side? Not exactly a party:
- 23% felt some pride,
- 6% felt joy or inspiration.

Because of all this, support for peace talks has climbed to 48%, while those insisting the operation keeps going has dropped to 44%.

In August, things looked totally different. Maybe that support will dip even further once more bad news trickles in from the front lines.

Even now, the number of people who think the operation is actually succeeding has slid down to 53% (compared to 73% back in May).
wiredfalcon2 wiredfalcon2 Regular
491 messages
joined Mar 2005
#8875 ·
Olivia Turner49 said:


So, I was watching this segment where Robert Baric was talking to N1

And honestly, the extra stuff he dropped about nuclear missiles? It’s pretty much anything goes at this point. Everything is on the table.

Regarding NS, he’s claiming they were built by the Russians and that they could shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine at any given moment.
The whole plan seems to be cutting off the entire American energy supply from Russian gas right in the middle of winter. Just pure chaos.

Why wait until winter, though? What's the hold up? At the start of the war, the European Union was getting about 40% of its gas from Russia, but now it's down to 9% since we found other sources. By winter, it could hit 0%. Then they can just shut it all down and call it some massive victory. 🤣
boldbison40 boldbison40 Member
43 messages
joined Mar 2022
#8876 ·
https://mobile.twitter.com/olehbatko...00956888096769

An independent Kherson state 😬
Lisa Patel4 Lisa Patel4 Active Member
195 messages
joined Oct 2014
#8877 ·
boldbison40 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/olehbatko...00956888096769

An independent Kherson state 😬

Just some random copy😁
Lisa Patel4 Lisa Patel4 Active Member
195 messages
joined Oct 2014
#8878 ·
wiredfalcon2 said:And what about when winter hits?

I guess there won't be any major moves during the winter.
Maybe they'll focus on setting new borders after the annexation and just wait out the cold months. They’ll likely keep an eye on what happens in the European Union, especially since the Midterms are right around the corner.

He'll need cash, sure, but he’ll probably scrape it together by selling gas through middlemen anyway.

It’s pretty straightforward. Ukraine has lost its economic backbone. As the crisis in the European Union deepens, pressure on governments will only mount. At some point, people are going to stop caring about Ukraine or sending them money. Keper is playing the division card, and there's a real chance someone in the European Union will snap and say they couldn't care less about Ukraine. Even Austria is pushing back against more sanctions.

Everyone talks about Viktor Orbán, but Bulgaria might actually be the first link to break in the European Union.

I suppose how harsh the winter is will play a role too.
wiredfalcon2 wiredfalcon2 Regular
491 messages
joined Mar 2005
#8879 ·
Look, money isn't just being burned on surgeries; running the whole damn government costs a fortune. And let’s be real, Vladimir Putin is gonna keep selling gas to the European Union as long as they're willing to buy it, and vice versa.
Lisa Patel4 Lisa Patel4 Active Member
195 messages
joined Oct 2014
#8880 ·
wiredfalcon2 said:Look, money isn't just being burned on surgeries; running the whole damn government costs a fortune. And let’s be real, Vladimir Putin is gonna keep selling gas to the European Union as long as they're willing to buy it, and vice versa.

That was true until maybe two days ago. I don't think the European Union has any leverage left in these negotiations.

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