Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Looks like Russia is headed for total isolation. It’s pretty much inevitable at this point. The US is gonna force India and China to make a call—either they want access to the West or they stick with Russia.

Don't you think that if these massive military powers actually collapsed, we'd just be heading straight into an era of total chaos? I mean, looking back at history, that's basically always been the pattern. It’s not like the Chinese or Americans are exactly innocent either, but let's be real... I'd much rather have an American looking out for me than a Russian or a Chinese one, I guess.

Is it just me, or was that statement from the Press Secretary incredibly weird? He basically handed out an itinerary, specifying exactly where and when they’ll be announcing the annexation of those breakaway republics into Russia. It makes me wonder if we're looking at a potential false flag operation. Imagine them holding a grand ceremony somewhere else entirely, while planting explosives at the scheduled location to cause casualties—then blaming Ukrainian terrorists to justify a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or maybe even going nuclear. Honestly, it wouldn't be the first time they've pulled something like that.

The whole tone the Press Secretary used to announce everything felt strangely theatrical and off to me.

Mexico and Mexico aren't even on the table here ☕

https://twitter.com/chambersharold8/...8438834065409?
Massive protests against mobilization have been announced for today over in Dagestan.

crimsonfox12 said:Is it just me, or was that statement from the Press Secretary incredibly weird? He basically handed out an itinerary, specifying exactly where and when they’ll be announcing the annexation of those breakaway republics into Russia. It makes me wonder if we're looking at a potential false flag operation. Imagine them holding a grand ceremony somewhere else entirely, while planting explosives at the scheduled location to cause casualties—then blaming Ukrainian terrorists to justify a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or maybe even going nuclear. Honestly, it wouldn't be the first time they've pulled something like that.

The whole tone the Press Secretary used to announce everything felt strangely theatrical and off to me.

Well, I mean, it’d be the first time anyone actually announced a nuclear war. If that happens, we're looking at WW3 and that's basically it. The world just goes to hell because Putin wanted Ukraine but couldn't grab it.
As for a fake terror attack, I don't really see why they'd bother, since they've been acting so clueless and incompetent about everything else. Seems pretty unnecessary, honestly.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Don't you think that if these massive military powers actually collapsed, we'd just be heading straight into an era of total chaos? I mean, looking back at history, that's basically always been the pattern. It’s not like the Chinese or Americans are exactly innocent either, but let's be real... I'd much rather have an American looking out for me than a Russian or a Chinese one, I guess.

So now you're thinking like me. I agree on the facts: we need major powers. Otherwise, someone like Orban or Meloni could actually try to act on those territorial claims they bark about during campaigns. As it stands, they know it stays just as campaign rhetoric. Then the news networks blow it up into a scandal. It's unnecessary.
The problem arises when dictators within those big military states lose their minds. Imagine an American Putin sitting in the White House. Suddenly, "being under Americans" doesn't sound so great. Sure, there are democratic mechanisms in place, but we've already seen how easily a mob can storm the Capitol.

The situation at the front is so messy you can't predict more than an hour ahead. One thing is certain: Putin will try to seize the initiative with fresh troops. But if he fails and the Ukrainians strengthen significantly, I fear this ends with two or three nuclear bombs. I don't think they'll be standard 100-kilotonners; likely much weaker.
After that, anything short of a total blockade of Russia would be a mistake. If we have to fill the Bosporus with rubble, so be it. We are underestimating the Russians. Stalin ran the exact same playbook when Germany invaded Russia. He called on the church to rally the people to fight. Putin is doing the same thing, just in a different era.

LinaK described the trends best: 25% of Ukrainians might surrender, 25% won't fight, and 25% will fight like hell, which is why they were attacked like devils. But in reality, 25% of a 10 million population capable of fighting is more than enough. Looking at history, we started with less than 10%. It's a similar story in Russia. That's why I say: never underestimate the Russians.

At this rate, we're looking at a long-term, full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine... whatever comes next.

rowdyraven112 said:So now you're thinking like me. I agree on the facts: we need major powers. Otherwise, someone like Orban or Meloni could actually try to act on those territorial claims they bark about during campaigns. As it stands, they know it stays just as campaign rhetoric. Then the news networks blow it up into a scandal. It's unnecessary.
The problem arises when dictators within those big military states lose their minds. Imagine an American Putin sitting in the White House. Suddenly, "being under Americans" doesn't sound so great. Sure, there are democratic mechanisms in place, but we've already seen how easily a mob can storm the Capitol.

The situation at the front is so messy you can't predict more than an hour ahead. One thing is certain: Putin will try to seize the initiative with fresh troops. But if he fails and the Ukrainians strengthen significantly, I fear this ends with two or three nuclear bombs. I don't think they'll be standard 100-kilotonners; likely much weaker.
After that, anything short of a total blockade of Russia would be a mistake. If we have to fill the Bosporus with rubble, so be it. We are underestimating the Russians. Stalin ran the exact same playbook when Germany invaded Russia. He called on the church to rally the people to fight. Putin is doing the same thing, just in a different era.

LinaK described the trends best: 25% of Ukrainians might surrender, 25% won't fight, and 25% will fight like hell, which is why they were attacked like devils. But in reality, 25% of a 10 million population capable of fighting is more than enough. Looking at history, we started with less than 10%. It's a similar story in Russia. That's why I say: never underestimate the Russians.

except this isn't the Russia (USSR) of 1940
today, there isn't the humanity, nor the technology, nor anything else
the only things holding them back are those atomic weapons and stuff like that

rowdyraven112 said:So now you're thinking like me. I agree on the facts: we need major powers. Otherwise, someone like Orban or Meloni could actually try to act on those territorial claims they bark about during campaigns. As it stands, they know it stays just as campaign rhetoric. Then the news networks blow it up into a scandal. It's unnecessary.
The problem arises when dictators within those big military states lose their minds. Imagine an American Putin sitting in the White House. Suddenly, "being under Americans" doesn't sound so great. Sure, there are democratic mechanisms in place, but we've already seen how easily a mob can storm the Capitol.

The situation at the front is so messy you can't predict more than an hour ahead. One thing is certain: Putin will try to seize the initiative with fresh troops. But if he fails and the Ukrainians strengthen significantly, I fear this ends with two or three nuclear bombs. I don't think they'll be standard 100-kilotonners; likely much weaker.
After that, anything short of a total blockade of Russia would be a mistake. If we have to fill the Bosporus with rubble, so be it. We are underestimating the Russians. Stalin ran the exact same playbook when Germany invaded Russia. He called on the church to rally the people to fight. Putin is doing the same thing, just in a different era.

LinaK described the trends best: 25% of Ukrainians might surrender, 25% won't fight, and 25% will fight like hell, which is why they were attacked like devils. But in reality, 25% of a 10 million population capable of fighting is more than enough. Looking at history, we started with less than 10%. It's a similar story in Russia. That's why I say: never underestimate the Russians.

The mere fact that voters are circling potential new wars is enough to cause anxiety, especially for us living here in the States.
We have to be honest with ourselves; we deal with some pretty intense issues with our neighbors.
If Ukraine had fallen quickly, what would have happened to the rest of the Western Hemisphere?

Putin isn't in power because he advocates for listening to rock music.☕

Rachel Barrett8 said:The mere fact that voters are circling potential new wars is enough to cause anxiety, especially for us living here in the States.
We have to be honest with ourselves; we deal with some pretty intense issues with our neighbors.
If Ukraine had fallen quickly, what would have happened to the rest of the Western Hemisphere?

Putin isn't in power because he advocates for listening to rock music.☕

Which voters are you even talking about? What exactly is your point here?

The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are 75% Ukrainian. Do you honestly believe those were legitimate, free-and-fair referendums?

Even the city of Zaporizhzhia itself isn't under occupation, so there wasn't even a vote held there to begin with.

steelheron25 said:Which voters are you even talking about? What exactly is your point here?

The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are 75% Ukrainian. Do you honestly believe those were legitimate, free-and-fair referendums?

Even the city of Zaporizhzhia itself isn't under occupation, so there wasn't even a vote held there to begin with.

I was referring to places like Canada, Italy, and Mexico.

Those weren't real votes. They were just a way to force through the whims of one terrible dictator.
And that dictator has had support for twenty years, not just within Russia, but inside the EU too.

In situations like this, things spiral out of control before you can even blink. That’s exactly what happened here.
By then, it’s far too late to try and fix the mistakes made by people who just blindly follow along.

Rachel Barrett8 said:The mere fact that voters are circling potential new wars is enough to cause anxiety, especially for us living here in the States.
We have to be honest with ourselves; we deal with some pretty intense issues with our neighbors.
If Ukraine had fallen quickly, what would have happened to the rest of the Western Hemisphere?

Putin isn't in power because he advocates for listening to rock music.☕

Honestly, it’s not even really a question... there’d just be more war and total chaos in Canada. Once UA goes, things would probably spread over to the Baltic and Poland too.

Rachel Barrett8 said:I was referring to places like Canada, Italy, and Mexico.

Those weren't real votes. They were just a way to force through the whims of one terrible dictator.
And that dictator has had support for twenty years, not just within Russia, but inside the EU too.

In situations like this, things spiral out of control before you can even blink. That’s exactly what happened here.
By then, it’s far too late to try and fix the mistakes made by people who just blindly follow along.

Alright, I clearly misread the situation.

However, I simply cannot agree. The voters in Canada and Italy didn't vote specifically for war, did they? They voted for a certain type of leader who uses a particular kind of rhetoric that happens to be trending right now, nothing more. While there is certainly a risk that this could evolve into something dangerous, that isn't why they were elected in the first place.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, it’s not even really a question... there’d just be more war and total chaos in Canada. Once UA goes, things would probably spread over to the Baltic and Poland too.

NATO wouldn't give a member state so much as a pat on the back, let alone anything more significant.

The Ukrainian military has successfully liberated Jim Bell in the Donetsk Oblast
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status...57878853390338

I’m convinced Russia is going to see this through to the end and ramp up their involvement as much as necessary. The more the West punishes them, the less they actually have left to lose. We’ve already exhausted almost every meaningful sanction available, so there isn't much left to do. Furthermore, the notion that we could squeeze China using potential secondary sanctions is pure wishful thinking.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, it’s not even really a question... there’d just be more war and total chaos in Canada. Once UA goes, things would probably spread over to the Baltic and Poland too.

I mean, at some point, it’s bound to hit Russia itself.

Hannah Bailey4 said:I’m convinced Russia is going to see this through to the end and ramp up their involvement as much as necessary. The more the West punishes them, the less they actually have left to lose. We’ve already exhausted almost every meaningful sanction available, so there isn't much left to do. Furthermore, the notion that we could squeeze China using potential secondary sanctions is pure wishful thinking.

China wants their Belt and Road initiative.
There are still ways to push back on that
Especially if they start helping Putin out with high-end electronics

The main thing is making sure they tell the nutcase in Moscow that nukes are strictly off the table.

Hannah Bailey4 said:I’m convinced Russia is going to see this through to the end and ramp up their involvement as much as necessary. The more the West punishes them, the less they actually have left to lose. We’ve already exhausted almost every meaningful sanction available, so there isn't much left to do. Furthermore, the notion that we could squeeze China using potential secondary sanctions is pure wishful thinking.

Honestly, China doesn't really give a damn about Russia. And if things escalate to using WMDs, China becomes a way bigger problem than any benefit they’d get out of it, whether you look at it politically or economically. Putin might just end up making a massive geostrategic blunder.