Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Lisa Patel4 said:That was true until maybe two days ago. I don't think the European Union has any leverage left in these negotiations.

Nah, you've got it wrong.

There’s still an ExxonMobil terminal sitting right there—so we could definitely have gas again, just maybe not through a pipeline this time...

It looks like Putin finally admitted tonight that he’s recognizing the independence of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Something about that doesn't quite sit right with me: the term "oblast" refers to a specific type of administrative division used in places like Belarus, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Ukraine.
So, calling an "oblast" an independent entity is a total oxymoron, isn't it? 🤷

Paul Thomas46 said:The annexation they’re planning is actually a massive deal...
Yeah, I know everyone wants to just lump this all into the general Russian shitshow—but honestly, it’s not quite that simple.

It's serious because the international community (basically the Western world) is going to find themselves in a very, very tight spot sooner rather than later.
The entire concept of the international order and international law—as far as those high-level institutions are concerned—only really exists as long as everyone decides to play by the rules.
If Russia manages to walk away from this with any kind of gain—especially regarding territory—it will be as if they just rewrote international law on the fly.
See, war itself isn't banned under those generally accepted international standards (war crimes are, obviously, via various conventions and such), but an annexation like this? That is strictly forbidden.

The situation is perilous for a multitude of reasons.
While that creep still had some rather shaky arguments regarding Crimea, what possible arguments does he have for Zaporizhzhia? It is historically, undeniably part of Ukraine.
Had he not taken such a massive hit to his ego a few weeks ago, who is to say he wouldn't be eyeing Kharkiv next?
It is glaringly obvious that he is reaching for the entire region. What does this imply? That there is no end to this war until that naked little scoundrel finally sinks his teeth into Zaporizhzhia while riding his Siberian bear, or whatever pet he happens to be using these days.
Even if that bastard were to vanish tomorrow, what is the official stance of the Russian state on all of this? Is there anyone there sensible enough to simply tear up those annexation papers and say, "forget about it"? Until then, this war could drag on indefinitely; even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine, every future Russian government will likely view those annexed territories as their own.
That idiot should have been removed by summary judgment back in 2014, or perhaps even earlier, because the entire world is going to find it incredibly difficult to crawl out of this mess.
For those currently burying their heads in the sand: if this is allowed to pass, what arguments will any nation have left to defend itself against neighbors gripped by collective madness in the future?

steelheron25 said:The situation is perilous for a multitude of reasons.
While that creep still had some rather shaky arguments regarding Crimea, what possible arguments does he have for Zaporizhzhia? It is historically, undeniably part of Ukraine.
Had he not taken such a massive hit to his ego a few weeks ago, who is to say he wouldn't be eyeing Kharkiv next?
It is glaringly obvious that he is reaching for the entire region. What does this imply? That there is no end to this war until that naked little scoundrel finally sinks his teeth into Zaporizhzhia while riding his Siberian bear, or whatever pet he happens to be using these days.
Even if that bastard were to vanish tomorrow, what is the official stance of the Russian state on all of this? Is there anyone there sensible enough to simply tear up those annexation papers and say, "forget about it"? Until then, this war could drag on indefinitely; even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine, every future Russian government will likely view those annexed territories as their own.
That idiot should have been removed by summary judgment back in 2014, or perhaps even earlier, because the entire world is going to find it incredibly difficult to crawl out of this mess.
For those currently burying their heads in the sand: if this is allowed to pass, what arguments will any nation have left to defend itself against neighbors gripped by collective madness in the future?

He wants all of Ukraine. Not just these five regions.

He won't declare war. Instead, he'll call it an "anti-terrorist operation." He's labeling Ukraine a terrorist state and branding every country providing aid as a sponsor of terrorism.
That gives him a free hand to do whatever he wants...

Paul Thomas46 said:The annexation they’re planning is actually a massive deal...
Yeah, I know everyone wants to just lump this all into the general Russian shitshow—but honestly, it’s not quite that simple.

It's serious because the international community (basically the Western world) is going to find themselves in a very, very tight spot sooner rather than later.
The entire concept of the international order and international law—as far as those high-level institutions are concerned—only really exists as long as everyone decides to play by the rules.
If Russia manages to walk away from this with any kind of gain—especially regarding territory—it will be as if they just rewrote international law on the fly.
See, war itself isn't banned under those generally accepted international standards (war crimes are, obviously, via various conventions and such), but an annexation like this? That is strictly forbidden.

But starting a war? That's where the line is drawn.

And before anyone tries to jump down my throat about Iraq back in 2003, there’s a massive reason why certain countries (like the US) jumped into the mission in Afghanistan while running for the hills whenever it came to actually helping topple Saddam Hussein.

Check this out—if they’ve officially annexed those regions, then three of them currently have "occupiers" inside their borders
In one instance, they even have an "occupied capital" under their control
When do they actually plan on resolving this?

steelheron25 said:The situation is perilous for a multitude of reasons.
While that creep still had some rather shaky arguments regarding Crimea, what possible arguments does he have for Zaporizhzhia? It is historically, undeniably part of Ukraine.
Had he not taken such a massive hit to his ego a few weeks ago, who is to say he wouldn't be eyeing Kharkiv next?
It is glaringly obvious that he is reaching for the entire region. What does this imply? That there is no end to this war until that naked little scoundrel finally sinks his teeth into Zaporizhzhia while riding his Siberian bear, or whatever pet he happens to be using these days.
Even if that bastard were to vanish tomorrow, what is the official stance of the Russian state on all of this? Is there anyone there sensible enough to simply tear up those annexation papers and say, "forget about it"? Until then, this war could drag on indefinitely; even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine, every future Russian government will likely view those annexed territories as their own.
That idiot should have been removed by summary judgment back in 2014, or perhaps even earlier, because the entire world is going to find it incredibly difficult to crawl out of this mess.
For those currently burying their heads in the sand: if this is allowed to pass, what arguments will any nation have left to defend itself against neighbors gripped by collective madness in the future?

Crimea was always such a unique case, I suppose. Russia actually had a decent majority there, and they held that referendum—which, okay, wasn't exactly up to top-tier democratic standards, but it still showed those people wanted to be part of Russia. Then you have the historical context, where back in '56, the party leadership basically handed it over to Ukraine as a mere formality...

But these current "referendums"? They're just a complete joke.
There's really no way the rest of the world is ever going to recognize that circus.

Carl Hernandez3 said:Check this out—if they’ve officially annexed those regions, then three of them currently have "occupiers" inside their borders
In one instance, they even have an "occupied capital" under their control
When do they actually plan on resolving this?

Fine then. War on terror. Anything goes. Just wait until someone pulls the nuclear trigger...

Timothy Nelson5 said:Crimea was always such a unique case, I suppose. Russia actually had a decent majority there, and they held that referendum—which, okay, wasn't exactly up to top-tier democratic standards, but it still showed those people wanted to be part of Russia. Then you have the historical context, where back in '56, the party leadership basically handed it over to Ukraine as a mere formality...

But these current "referendums"? They're just a complete joke.
There's really no way the rest of the world is ever going to recognize that circus.

even the Mexicans won't recognize them

Carl Hernandez3 said:Check this out—if they’ve officially annexed those regions, then three of them currently have "occupiers" inside their borders
In one instance, they even have an "occupied capital" under their control
When do they actually plan on resolving this?

That is precisely the point; they are so far removed from Zaporizhzhia, yet suddenly it turns out they aren't allowed to stop until the occupation is complete.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Crimea was always such a unique case, I suppose. Russia actually had a decent majority there, and they held that referendum—which, okay, wasn't exactly up to top-tier democratic standards, but it still showed those people wanted to be part of Russia. Then you have the historical context, where back in '56, the party leadership basically handed it over to Ukraine as a mere formality...

But these current "referendums"? They're just a complete joke.
There's really no way the rest of the world is ever going to recognize that circus.

You're talking about a referendum that was conducted under the exact same circumstances as the ones we're seeing now.
It was organized immediately following the invasion by the Russian military, practically overnight. If I recall correctly, the decision to hold the vote on March 17th was likely made around March 15th. It’s completely indefensible by any reasonable standard; a legitimate referendum requires time for public debate and the presentation of arguments, and you certainly can't organize one while foreign troops are standing over you with rifles. On top of all that, the results from the Crimea vote are incredibly suspicious, as the official turnout figures and outcomes seem wildly disproportionate to the actual demographic makeup of the region at the time.
To suggest that the Crimea referendum represented some genuine "will of the people" is frankly absurd. The whole thing was a massive sham and a complete deception.

And speaking of political decrees, isn't it interesting how almost nobody seems to realize that through a similar political decree, Ukraine actually ceded certain territories near Belgorod, Russia to them?

Sean Doyle8 said:He won't declare war. Instead, he'll call it an "anti-terrorist operation." He's labeling Ukraine a terrorist state and branding every country providing aid as a sponsor of terrorism.
That gives him a free hand to do whatever he wants...

As if his hands weren't already tied before this.

Does this imply they're getting rid of DNR and LNR orders?

steelheron25 said:Russian State TV has this countdown clock going on.

Honestly, it'd be just as useful if they had a countdown clock for when Sleeping Beauty finally wakes up, right? Pretty much the same level of importance, I guess.

🤣

I mean, I suppose it’s kind of like that countdown everyone was tracking for the Ukrainians to blow up the Kerch Bridge. 😁

But hey, who knows? We'll just have to sit back and see how this whole thing actually plays out.☕

There is an emergency NATO press conference happening right now. I wonder what they have to say.

steelheron25 said:The situation is perilous for a multitude of reasons.
While that creep still had some rather shaky arguments regarding Crimea, what possible arguments does he have for Zaporizhzhia? It is historically, undeniably part of Ukraine.
Had he not taken such a massive hit to his ego a few weeks ago, who is to say he wouldn't be eyeing Kharkiv next?
It is glaringly obvious that he is reaching for the entire region. What does this imply? That there is no end to this war until that naked little scoundrel finally sinks his teeth into Zaporizhzhia while riding his Siberian bear, or whatever pet he happens to be using these days.
Even if that bastard were to vanish tomorrow, what is the official stance of the Russian state on all of this? Is there anyone there sensible enough to simply tear up those annexation papers and say, "forget about it"? Until then, this war could drag on indefinitely; even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine, every future Russian government will likely view those annexed territories as their own.
That idiot should have been removed by summary judgment back in 2014, or perhaps even earlier, because the entire world is going to find it incredibly difficult to crawl out of this mess.
For those currently burying their heads in the sand: if this is allowed to pass, what arguments will any nation have left to defend itself against neighbors gripped by collective madness in the future?

I know, and that’s exactly my point.
We'll just have to wait and see how it all unfolds, but right now—honestly—things are looking pretty grim...

Kate Lewis3 said:But starting a war? That's where the line is drawn.

And before anyone tries to jump down my throat about Iraq back in 2003, there’s a massive reason why certain countries (like the US) jumped into the mission in Afghanistan while running for the hills whenever it came to actually helping topple Saddam Hussein.

I won't claim to be an expert, since I'm certainly not 100% sure about all the details myself...

Carl Hernandez3 said:Check this out—if they’ve officially annexed those regions, then three of them currently have "occupiers" inside their borders
In one instance, they even have an "occupied capital" under their control
When do they actually plan on resolving this?

When I pointed out how seriously we should take Lazarov's claim that Russia can't lose this militarily, or Lavrov's statement about Russia having a legitimate right to use nuclear weapons to defend its sovereignty, I was branded a spreader of Putinism.

That link explaining how NATO might use conventional weapons to strike Russian territory where a nuke was launched was eye-opening. Honestly, we really need to question the IQ of people falling for that kind of nonsense.

Total isolation of Russia? Yes. Economic and military threats against the smaller players supporting Russia? Yes. Military action against those disobedient smaller states? Absolutely. Beyond that, I'm not making any more guesses.

rowdyraven112 said:When I pointed out how seriously we should take Lazarov's claim that Russia can't lose this militarily, or Lavrov's statement about Russia having a legitimate right to use nuclear weapons to defend its sovereignty, I was branded a spreader of Putinism.

That link explaining how NATO might use conventional weapons to strike Russian territory where a nuke was launched was eye-opening. Honestly, we really need to question the IQ of people falling for that kind of nonsense.

Total isolation of Russia? Yes. Economic and military threats against the smaller players supporting Russia? Yes. Military action against those disobedient smaller states? Absolutely. Beyond that, I'm not making any more guesses.

Besides the fact that you really are spreading Putinism and Russophilia, with or without that quote, you're basically just passively defending nuclear strikes here by refusing to push back. And what if Russia gets away with it? Are you gonna be like, "I'm Russian, long live Russia" tomorrow if Putin shows up and claims all of Europe is Russia and we've been annexed, then tells us to deal with the nukes if we don't like it? Like, where does it end?