Sanctions on Russia

Noah Diaz said:My take is simple: the European Union needs to pull out of the NATO alliance immediately. It's time to prioritize our own interests and finally achieve political and military independence. The smartest move would be to declare neutrality and trade with whoever is interested.

The war in Ukraine is a mess cooked up by the people who started it, and frankly, it doesn't concern anyone else. That means Russia, the USA, Unknown, and of course, Ukraine. How they choose to settle their mess is none of my business. My only hope is that they have enough sense left to prevent this from escalating into a point of no return—total nuclear annihilation.

The true value of being part of the NATO alliance is only becoming clear now, amidst this conflict. Let the skeptics reflect on that. For Putin and his ilk, an absence of such an alliance would have been ideal—allowing him to "operate" with his policies and brute force whenever he sees fit (and men like him never have enough force). As it stands, his hands are largely tied, his actions limited to countries that haven't managed to join NATO yet. And naturally, all those who were neutral just yesterday are looking for ways to join the alliance today. A direct consequence of Putin's policies will likely be NATO members spending well over 2% annually on defense. We may even see the creation of EU military forces.

But please, tell us again how Ukraine "cooked up" this war? The only thing you can honestly blame them for is their very existence, because apparently, simply existing is an affront to Putin. Perhaps also that they had the sheer audacity to decide to elect their own government without consulting Moscow—something we all know is particularly difficult for Putin to swallow. Thus, Putin was forced to attempt a "final solution" in Ukraine.

The only thing keeping our borders safe right now is a rock-solid NATO alliance.
If NATO goes weak—or just stops existing entirely—you've got a massive Russia looking to reclaim everything from the old USSR era. That just opens the door for certain neighbors to start eyeing our territory with even more hunger.
Major props to the folks who fought for this country back in the 90s, but honestly? My personal take is that I’d much rather just chill on my couch and watch as Ukraine defends both us and the rest of the US/Europe.

Noah Diaz said:My take is simple: the European Union needs to pull out of the NATO alliance immediately. It's time to prioritize our own interests and finally achieve political and military independence. The smartest move would be to declare neutrality and trade with whoever is interested.

The war in Ukraine is a mess cooked up by the people who started it, and frankly, it doesn't concern anyone else. That means Russia, the USA, Unknown, and of course, Ukraine. How they choose to settle their mess is none of my business. My only hope is that they have enough sense left to prevent this from escalating into a point of no return—total nuclear annihilation.

There’s just one tiny issue with reaching such a noble goal: most European military forces (with a few exceptions) aren't actually designed to defend their own borders—they're built to create the illusion of being capable. Some countries are decent at it, but others—like maybe some smaller states in the US sphere—just rely on the hope that if things get ugly, the Americans will swoop in and bail them out. Russia knows that all too well.

Not to mention, running a legit modern military costs a massive amount of cash—money that won't be available to spend on other stuff anymore.

Alright everyone, I hear you loud and clear. Let's move on from my personal takes; they aren't the point here, and we're drifting way too far off-topic.

If NATO wasn't around, we'd probably see way more wars breaking out across Europe. And honestly? Without America, Europe wouldn't stand much of a chance at defending itself since they've pretty much let their military capabilities slide. If it weren't for the US, I doubt they'd even be hitting that 2% GDP spending target.

Anyway, if you're wondering what NATO actually is, check out this interesting video

electricsurfer47 said:If NATO wasn't around, we'd probably see way more wars breaking out across Europe. And honestly? Without America, Europe wouldn't stand much of a chance at defending itself since they've pretty much let their military capabilities slide. If it weren't for the US, I doubt they'd even be hitting that 2% GDP spending target.

Anyway, if you're wondering what NATO actually is, check out this interesting video

Seriously, without the US, those countries would be at each other's throats for the third time this century. You need a boss in charge to keep all those little tribes from tearing each other apart.

Dow Chemical just announced they’re looking to cut about 2,600 jobs to trim down costs, following a pretty rough end to 2022. The company reported a massive net loss of $5 billion for the fourth quarter alone. It's quite a staggering swing when you consider that during the same period last year, they were actually sitting on a net profit of nearly $950 million.

If I recall correctly, these folks fought against sanctions until their very last breath. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:

Dow Chemical just announced they’re looking to cut about 2,600 jobs to trim down costs, following a pretty rough end to 2022. The company reported a massive net loss of $5 billion for the fourth quarter alone. It's quite a staggering swing when you consider that during the same period last year, they were actually sitting on a net profit of nearly $950 million.

If I recall correctly, these folks fought against sanctions until their very last breath. ☕

They really could have stepped up alongside ExxonMobil and the other Western oil giants back when they had the chance. But of course, they didn't. They were too busy banking on the idea that they’d get to scoop up cheap shares from everyone else who was bailing out. Instead, ExxonMobil ended up cleaning out $6 billion from the joint venture's accounts, and then—surprise, surprise—they finally had to write off the entire Russian operation.

Now they’re whining about the losses, but honestly, they're just using it as an excuse to lay people off. They actually announced workforce reductions in Germany way before the war even started, all while sitting on $10 billion in cash meant for a brand-new facility in China.

If Germany is hurting because of these layoffs, well, they can go ahead and deal with the consequences of their own companies' greed.

Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

Noah Diaz said:Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

Haha, 23 million barrels since the start of the year? Considering Russia pumps about 9 million barrels a day, that's practically pocket change they're smuggling through.

That figure covers just that one Gulf area since the year kicked off, and honestly, there are plenty of other spots doing the exact same thing 😁

At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since The start of this year , based on tanker tracking data from Bloomberg. Local authorities claim their hands are tied; the activity is playing out just beyond the six-mile limit of their territorial waters in that region.

Russia might be shuffling hundreds of tankers around like a shell game, but they can't actually offload that European Union oil without handing massive discounts to China and India. The hole in the national treasury just keeps getting wider every single day, regardless of whether we're sending installments to Ukraine or not.

John Ramos45 said:Russia might be shuffling hundreds of tankers around like a shell game, but they can't actually offload that European Union oil without handing massive discounts to China and India. The hole in the national treasury just keeps getting wider every single day, regardless of whether we're sending installments to Ukraine or not.

It’s a shell game. The Russians transfer oil to Greek vessels, the Greeks essentially issue the cargo a new identity, and then that oil flows into countries that would otherwise never touch Russian supplies. The catch? Everyone involved knows they are dancing on the edge of legality. They are cutting it close, and that risk carries a premium. Suppliers have to charge extra for the headache. It remains a mystery how the money flows back toward the Russian suppliers. This entire charade isn't cheap, and the price gap for the whole operation is covered by the sellers. After all, who would buy "tainted" oil—risking sanctions and legal hammer blows—only to pay more than they would on the open market? The West's goal isn't to shut off the Russian oil tap entirely; it's to bleed their profits dry.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It’s a shell game. The Russians transfer oil to Greek vessels, the Greeks essentially issue the cargo a new identity, and then that oil flows into countries that would otherwise never touch Russian supplies. The catch? Everyone involved knows they are dancing on the edge of legality. They are cutting it close, and that risk carries a premium. Suppliers have to charge extra for the headache. It remains a mystery how the money flows back toward the Russian suppliers. This entire charade isn't cheap, and the price gap for the whole operation is covered by the sellers. After all, who would buy "tainted" oil—risking sanctions and legal hammer blows—only to pay more than they would on the open market? The West's goal isn't to shut off the Russian oil tap entirely; it's to bleed their profits dry.

Exactly. That's why the idea that Russia is exporting oil at a steady $60 price point is, frankly, a bit naive.
Beyond the fact that smuggling, rerouting, and forging "new identities" for oil is an incredibly expensive endeavor—especially given how much lower the total volume is compared to pre-sanction levels—we can't ignore the technical reality. Even if you rewrite the paperwork, the chemical composition of the oil remains what it is. It's still Russian crude, and experts know exactly which refineries are capable of processing it.

As someone else pointed out, when sanctions are first slapped on, they have a psychological effect, but the actual economic impact moves like molasses... at first, there's nothing. Zero percent. But then, right toward the end, they accelerate and absolutely shatter the economy. 100%.
Best regards

So, they’re averaging over $74 per barrel for their crude, even though that supposed cap is set at $60.

They’re selling high, while the European Union just scribbles in their notebooks that it isn't happening. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

'Sanctions' are working perfectly.

Noah Diaz said:So, they’re averaging over $74 per barrel for their crude, even though that supposed cap is set at $60.

They’re selling high, while the European Union just scribbles in their notebooks that it isn't happening. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

'Sanctions' are working perfectly.

Sanctions don't do squat—but hey, sure, let's ignore the fact that the monthly deficit is sitting at 5% of GDP.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Sanctions don't do squat—but hey, sure, let's ignore the fact that the monthly deficit is sitting at 5% of GDP.

Oh, you haven't seen anything yet. Just wait until they actually start taking their toll, slowly but surely.🤔

lp

Nancy Gomez26 said:It’s a shell game. The Russians transfer oil to Greek vessels, the Greeks essentially issue the cargo a new identity, and then that oil flows into countries that would otherwise never touch Russian supplies. The catch? Everyone involved knows they are dancing on the edge of legality. They are cutting it close, and that risk carries a premium. Suppliers have to charge extra for the headache. It remains a mystery how the money flows back toward the Russian suppliers. This entire charade isn't cheap, and the price gap for the whole operation is covered by the sellers. After all, who would buy "tainted" oil—risking sanctions and legal hammer blows—only to pay more than they would on the open market? The West's goal isn't to shut off the Russian oil tap entirely; it's to bleed their profits dry.

An oil tanker carrying Russian crude was recently seized in Albania. If a smaller player like Albania is willing to pull the trigger, one can only imagine what the major Western powers are capable of when they decide to act. It looks like the outlook for Russia isn't getting any brighter under any circumstances.

Noah Diaz said:Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

What sanctions are we even talking about bypassing here? It clearly states they’re shipping that oil to buyers in Asia.

The more middlemen and shipping costs you add to the mix, the less profit Russia actually keeps. Not sure what part of that isn't clicking.

Besides, why does Russian oil even need to be transferred to tankers just to get to Asian countries? I thought Russia had been selling to them at full tilt for ages.

analogbear5 said:What sanctions are we even talking about bypassing here? It clearly states they’re shipping that oil to buyers in Asia.

The more middlemen and shipping costs you add to the mix, the less profit Russia actually keeps. Not sure what part of that isn't clicking.

Besides, why does Russian oil even need to be transferred to tankers just to get to Asian countries? I thought Russia had been selling to them at full tilt for ages.

Once that oil is loaded onto the tankers, I guess Russia doesn't really have much control over it anymore. It seems to me that Russian profits aren't really affected by things like midstream transfers or various intermediaries.