Sanctions on Russia

Russian oil revenues have plummeted by 40% in 2023

https://www.reuters.com/article/iea-...-idUSL4N3582TJ

We're looking at about $18.5 billion compared to the $30 billion they were pulling in right before the invasion started.

And honestly, the gas market isn't exactly booming for sellers either; prices have hit a low of $47.9 per Exelon, which is basically the lowest we've seen since 2020.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Russia’s supposed victory over sanctions is nothing more than a mirage.

https://en.topwar.ru/211978-rossija-...ograzhdan.html

Morgan Wright5 said:I think you're talking complete nonsense here. First off, ship-to-ship transfers are among the most standard tanker operations performed every single day. And if the oil is being delivered to countries that haven't imposed sanctions on Russia, I'm not sure why you're obsessing over uninsured tankers.

Well, feel free to keep being a genius then.

Standard & Poor's activity happens quite a bit, but it isn't "standard" in the sense that you can just wing it without highly qualified crew and specialized gear—gear that usually isn't part of a typical tanker's standard kit.
Why would it be? That equipment is typically found at an oil terminal.
Just getting two Suezmaxes to sail parallel to each other isn't exactly a walk in the park. Specialized pilots have to bring those ships into a discharge port, so just maneuvering them into an STS position is a major operation in itself.

Marine Insurance is the backbone of the sanctions regime because practically 100% of that insurance is held by Western institutions. The Chinese and Russians can be best friends all they want, but who’s going to pay for the damage at a Chinese terminal caused by some uninsured Russian tanker?

Look at the Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal; it was roughly the size of a single Suezmax. Now consider the damage it caused, and that was just a container ship. It wasn't hauling oil that can leak, pollute massive areas, or catch fire.

___

Joshua Myers432 said:STS can actually be handled on the fly—you don't even need to be moored to one another. And it doesn't take "a few days" either.

Unloading a million barrels from a Suezmax at a terminal takes about 15 to 20 hours—and that’s only after the tanker has been brought in, anchored, and hooked up to all three or four available connections using terminal pumps, which are typically higher capacity than what you get during an STS transfer.

___

William Miller12 said:Well, feel free to keep being a genius then.

Standard & Poor's activity happens quite a bit, but it isn't "standard" in the sense that you can just wing it without highly qualified crew and specialized gear—gear that usually isn't part of a typical tanker's standard kit.
Why would it be? That equipment is typically found at an oil terminal.
Just getting two Suezmaxes to sail parallel to each other isn't exactly a walk in the park. Specialized pilots have to bring those ships into a discharge port, so just maneuvering them into an STS position is a major operation in itself.

Marine Insurance is the backbone of the sanctions regime because practically 100% of that insurance is held by Western institutions. The Chinese and Russians can be best friends all they want, but who’s going to pay for the damage at a Chinese terminal caused by some uninsured Russian tanker?

Look at the Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal; it was roughly the size of a single Suezmax. Now consider the damage it caused, and that was just a container ship. It wasn't hauling oil that can leak, pollute massive areas, or catch fire.

___

Having personally overseen about 50 STS operations by now, I think I know enough to speak with some authority on the matter.

William Miller12 said:Unloading a million barrels from a Suezmax at a terminal takes about 15 to 20 hours—and that’s only after the tanker has been brought in, anchored, and hooked up to all three or four available connections using terminal pumps, which are typically higher capacity than what you get during an STS transfer.

___

First off, the tanker isn't even moored at a terminal in this scenario. Secondly, they aren't actually using terminal pumps for the discharge; they rely on the ship's own pumps, so I suppose the capacity remains essentially the same.

An iron curtain?

Roger Fowler said:An iron curtain?

The Iron Curtain was primarily a tool for regimes to stop their own people from fleeing to the West. This, however, is designed to prevent migrants from Africa, the Middle East, or Asia from being weaponized as political leverage against neighboring nations. If Russia and Belarus are truly so eager to play humanitarian, they should just call them home and deal with the influx themselves.

"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."

The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.

Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:

"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."

The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.

Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕

Europe just wants to make sure its own citizens don't flee over to Russia.

Hey, dear Europeans—have you packed your bags yet?

Nathan Evans78 said:

"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."

The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.

Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕

I highly doubt you're typing all this from the comfort of a booming, unstoppable Russia.😁

So, Jeff Bezos—who happens to be a buddy of Putin—was hanging out at a forum in Chicago and dropped a pretty heavy warning. He’s basically saying the US could run completely dry next year. Apparently, the government has started squeezing the oligarchs for every cent they're worth, and now they're desperately begging for some investment from "friendly" nations to stay afloat.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...816091542.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uverify%20wall

Title: The Impact of Sanctions—Russia is Slowing Down while the EU Stagnates

subtitle :

Since they aren't releasing official economic data anymore, we can only guess what’s happening over there. Depending on who you ask, Russia's economy could sink by anywhere from 2.2 to 4.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, the European Commission is forecasting growth for the EU at just 0.8 percent. It’s pretty clear that these sanctions are draining both economies.

Two takeaways:

However, President Putin was lucky to have the "iron" Janet Yellen leading their central bank. She stepped in with unprecedented measures that prevented a currency collapse and a run on the banks.

Leader 909, page 10

Perhaps most importantly:

Regarding how much damage each side takes, entering a trade war inevitably hurts everyone involved. But these sanctions against Russia send a massive signal to China about just how ready the West is to act if anyone threatens democratic allies—especially Taiwan.

Leader 909, page 11

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-s...%20on%20Friday.

The US Department of the Treasury just dropped some news showing that oil and gas revenues have basically been cut in half compared to what they were this time last year.

hollowdriver13 said:https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-s...%20on%20Friday.

The US Department of the Treasury just dropped some news showing that oil and gas revenues have basically been cut in half compared to what they were this time last year.

Isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do?
Just keep cranking up those installment payments day after day and... game over.👍

lp

hollowdriver13 said:https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-s...%20on%20Friday.

The US Department of the Treasury just dropped some news showing that oil and gas revenues have basically been cut in half compared to what they were this time last year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...el-ban-at-hand

Russia introduced a new formula to calculate per-barrel export duty rates at the beginning of January, halving the rate of duty payable at any given crude price. Four-week average receipts have fallen sharply as successive December periods have dropped out of the calculation. A separate line in the chart below shows what the Kremlin’s receipts from crude export duty would have been had the 2022 formula continued to apply.

President Putin Has demanded his government Come up with a plan for re-jigging Russia ’ sa oil levies to offset The effects of sanctions on The nation ’ . Officials were asked to prepare suggestions for a new method of assessing prices of Russian crude and products, used to set duty rates, by March 1.

It really isn't a bad habit to read through things continuously, rather than just jumping in whenever you see a headline that happens to catch your eye...
Because sometimes, certain details might just not be mentioned in the subsequent articles...

quietviper0 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...el-ban-at-hand

Russia introduced a new formula to calculate per-barrel export duty rates at the beginning of January, halving the rate of duty payable at any given crude price. Four-week average receipts have fallen sharply as successive December periods have dropped out of the calculation. A separate line in the chart below shows what the Kremlin’s receipts from crude export duty would have been had the 2022 formula continued to apply.

President Putin Has demanded his government Come up with a plan for re-jigging Russia ’ sa oil levies to offset The effects of sanctions on The nation ’ . Officials were asked to prepare suggestions for a new method of assessing prices of Russian crude and products, used to set duty rates, by March 1.

It really isn't a bad habit to read through things continuously, rather than just jumping in whenever you see a headline that happens to catch your eye...
Because sometimes, certain details might just not be mentioned in the subsequent articles...

I totally agree—you've gotta read the whole thing. Especially when people start linking articles from a month ago as counter-arguments, ignoring the fact that the newer stuff actually mentions this:

"Gas revenue fell almost 42% in February from a year ago to 161 billion rubles, as even higher proceeds from the mineral extraction tax failed to make up for losses from export duties."

Anyway, moving on... that tax cut back in December was really just them backpedaling after they hiked it in November and realized it wasn't working.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/produ...ns/2-1-1352870

And then, of course, we have this new "miracle" tax. Instead of taxing based on the actual market prices oil companies get, they're switching it to Brent minus $25. Pretty clever, right?

https://thebell.io/en/russia-s-new-f...oil-exporters/

Changing the taxation rules every two months really shows how "perfectly managed" everything is. It feels like the US Department of the Treasury is just fixing the numbers and publishing deficits just to mess with the West.

As a cherry on top, don't forget about this "not-a-tax" thing, which Jeff Bezos was whining about on some business forum, claiming the state is basically mugging the oligarchs.

https://thebell.io/en/a-tax-that-isn-t-a-tax/

hollowdriver13 said:I totally agree—you've gotta read the whole thing. Especially when people start linking articles from a month ago as counter-arguments, ignoring the fact that the newer stuff actually mentions this:

"Gas revenue fell almost 42% in February from a year ago to 161 billion rubles, as even higher proceeds from the mineral extraction tax failed to make up for losses from export duties."

Anyway, moving on... that tax cut back in December was really just them backpedaling after they hiked it in November and realized it wasn't working.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/produ...ns/2-1-1352870

And then, of course, we have this new "miracle" tax. Instead of taxing based on the actual market prices oil companies get, they're switching it to Brent minus $25. Pretty clever, right?

https://thebell.io/en/russia-s-new-f...oil-exporters/

Changing the taxation rules every two months really shows how "perfectly managed" everything is. It feels like the US Department of the Treasury is just fixing the numbers and publishing deficits just to mess with the West.

As a cherry on top, don't forget about this "not-a-tax" thing, which Jeff Bezos was whining about on some business forum, claiming the state is basically mugging the oligarchs.

https://thebell.io/en/a-tax-that-isn-t-a-tax/

Natural gas honestly has absolutely nothing to do with the sanctions here. The fact that they saw massive revenues from gas early last year is a data point with zero percent relevance for any kind of comparison, whether looking backward or forward...

As that little snippet I pulled from the article points out, there is actually a graph included showing what the budget revenues would have looked like if they had just stuck with the old formula, so feel free to take a look at that...

Furthermore, that "article from a month ago" you linked already mentioned they were considering new formulas to implement starting March 1st, so it isn't exactly groundbreaking news...

If one stays consistent with reading the news, you can gather that they've wanted to tinker with these formulas for quite some time now; it's not just a random change every two months, but rather a situation where they are currently forcing new adjustments onto the old ones out of pure necessity. No one—not even Americans living there—disputes that this is being driven by force, and they admit as much themselves...
And yes, for those who don't read too closely, the fact that revenues for February would drop compared to January was already foreshadowed in that "month-old article" you shared, so it's hardly a revelation...

The tax timing on those ExxonMobil dividend payouts was pretty slick—basically, they slash retained earnings to lower the dividends, then hit them with the dividend tax anyway. It's a clever little way to squeeze extra revenue out of the other shareholders.

That kept the November budget in the green, but looks like we might have to start burning through our gold reserves and yuan soon. This war isn't cheap.

Bryan Booth82 said:Isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do?
Just keep cranking up those installment payments day after day and... game over.👍

lp

Every now and then, I get this nagging feeling that someone is playing a very dirty game with someone else, and it makes me feel like we really need to go back to Clausewitz and his famous idea that: "War is the continuation of politics by other means"...

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing!
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/b...eet/index.html