Sanctions on Russia

Sanctions definitely pack a punch, there's no denying that, but the real question is just how long we're talking about...
Waiting for Russia to completely fall apart is going to take forever. That's why I think we really only have one move left—going in with full force and just praying to God that China stays out of it. But honestly, looking at how things are going, it feels like Pelosi has already paved the way for China to get involved.

Why don't they just go ahead and hand in their resignation? It’s like they're just sitting there, itching for us to start killing each other...

The European Central Bank (ECB) is pushing JP Morgan Chase to exit the Russian market:

https://kyivindependent.com/news-fee...russian-market

Russian economist Vladimir Milov says: "Putin's imperialism and geopolitical adventurism is going to cost us dearly"

https://www.nytimes.com/world/vladimir-milov...

electricsurfer47 said:Russian economist Vladimir Milov says: "Putin's imperialism and geopolitical adventurism is going to cost us dearly"

https://www.nytimes.com/world/vladimir-milov...

Of course it’s going to be expensive—incredibly expensive. Even without any sanctions in place, any war carries an enormous price tag...

Back during WWI, Germany (which was the industrial powerhouse of Europe at the time) essentially collapsed, completely exhausted...

In more modern times, when you consider how much more expensive the "toys" have become, the situation is even more dire...
Just look at this, for instance:

Quote : a report from The Costs of War Project at Brown University revealed that 20 years of post-9/11 wars have cost the U.S. an estimated $8 trillion and have killed more than 900,000 people.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

It is almost impossible to fathom everything that could have been achieved for our economy, our society, or humanity as a whole with that kind of capital... and as for human lives, well, they are obviously treated as nothing more than "expendable goods"...

And sure enough, we only ever really sit down to debate these things once the damage is already done. Perhaps there were some "wise men" out there who could have put it all on paper and pointed out from the very beginning that such an undertaking was pure madness... but then again, when did politicians ever bother asking the "experts" what they thought?

You can scribble whatever nonsense you want on paper, but when Putin claims a special operation is wrapped up in three days while the West is basically eating out of his hand, that piece of paper isn't worth much more than a used napkin at a diner.

https://twitter.com/MingtheMercil15/...979755009?s=20
Sanctions tend to hit different sectors in unpredictable ways—but one thing's for sure—if things don't shift soon, Russian civilian aviation is headed for a total meltdown.

We’re all just sitting here waiting for those massive collapses everyone keeps promising—you know, those "it's happening any second now" predictions—mostly because we're all just completely exhausted by this inflation.

Nathan Evans78 said:We’re all just sitting here waiting for those massive collapses everyone keeps promising—you know, those "it's happening any second now" predictions—mostly because we're all just completely exhausted by this inflation.

You have to be pretty dense to actually believe the war in Ukraine is what's driving inflation—it’s just not that simple, I guess.

Nathan Evans78 said:We’re all just sitting here waiting for those massive collapses everyone keeps promising—you know, those "it's happening any second now" predictions—mostly because we're all just completely exhausted by this inflation.

I guess China will swoop in to save the day with their advanced commercial aviation.
Not that it matters—you can always find other ways to reach Russia besides flying.
But hey, you're the one who kept insisting that Russian autarky was the ultimate solution. 😵

Nathan Evans78 said:We’re all just sitting here waiting for those massive collapses everyone keeps promising—you know, those "it's happening any second now" predictions—mostly because we're all just completely exhausted by this inflation.

Yeah, right. It’ll happen any second now. Just like the Russians on the Mississippi. 🤣

And let's be real: inflation has nothing to do with the war. It’s probably just because Mercury aligned with Jupiter or some other nonsense. We're clearly just in a bad astrological phase.

Joshua Myers432 said:Yeah, right. It’ll happen any second now. Just like the Russians on the Mississippi. 🤣

And let's be real: inflation has nothing to do with the war. It’s probably just because Mercury aligned with Jupiter or some other nonsense. We're clearly just in a bad astrological phase.

So you're telling me that massive money printing and those near-zero interest rates from the Fed during COVID didn't play a role at all?

If that's the case, then wouldn't it be pretty helpful to see an actual, well-reasoned breakdown of inflation regarding the war? I mean, specifically looking at the impact of the war versus the massive surge in the total money supply that happened right before things kicked off—basically, what would inflation look like if the war hadn't even happened?

Thanks in advance.

hollowdriver13 said:So you're telling me that massive money printing and those near-zero interest rates from the Fed during COVID didn't play a role at all?

If that's the case, then wouldn't it be pretty helpful to see an actual, well-reasoned breakdown of inflation regarding the war? I mean, specifically looking at the impact of the war versus the massive surge in the total money supply that happened right before things kicked off—basically, what would inflation look like if the war hadn't even happened?

Thanks in advance.

It did. I'm guessing you were first in line to cheer for that whole lockdown madness, or am I mistaken?

Joshua Myers432 said:It did. I'm guessing you were first in line to cheer for that whole lockdown madness, or am I mistaken?

Nah, you got me wrong there. It doesn't mean I was out there partying during the lockdowns or anything, I just did my best to roll with whatever was happening at the time.

Anyway, since we’re drifting away from the main topic—let's talk inflation, money printing, those rock-bottom interest rates, and how much of this mess is due to war versus everything else? We could even bring in Alessio Rastati, since he loves playing economist and dropping theories without much actual substance behind them.

So, how much of this inflation was actually caused by monetary expansion and low interest rates, and how much can we really pin on the war?
Also, if inflation is such a bad thing, why is everyone so terrified of deflation hitting the economy? At what point does "normal" annual inflation cross the line into runaway hyperinflation?
Basically, what's the real difference between "good" and "bad" inflation, and what's driving the climb more: the endless money printing or the conflict abroad? And what kind of ratio are we looking at?

Thanks in advance!

hollowdriver13 said:Nah, you got me wrong there. It doesn't mean I was out there partying during the lockdowns or anything, I just did my best to roll with whatever was happening at the time.

Anyway, since we’re drifting away from the main topic—let's talk inflation, money printing, those rock-bottom interest rates, and how much of this mess is due to war versus everything else? We could even bring in Alessio Rastati, since he loves playing economist and dropping theories without much actual substance behind them.

So, how much of this inflation was actually caused by monetary expansion and low interest rates, and how much can we really pin on the war?
Also, if inflation is such a bad thing, why is everyone so terrified of deflation hitting the economy? At what point does "normal" annual inflation cross the line into runaway hyperinflation?
Basically, what's the real difference between "good" and "bad" inflation, and what's driving the climb more: the endless money printing or the conflict abroad? And what kind of ratio are we looking at?

Thanks in advance!

You have a point, though I suspect you aren't grasping the core issue I was addressing—I didn't use that terminology without reason. For years, certain groups have been fed narratives like mindless lizards, spoon-fed whatever information they could stomach, given the counter-arguments, and voilà... you end up with people who can't process even the simplest logic. It's a dead end—a wall.
A lesson for the rest: if you overindulge in brain rot, the risk of permanent neural damage leads inevitably to stupidity. Don't expose yourselves to Russian propaganda, anti-vax rhetoric, lizard people, flat-earthers, or any other way of recruiting the alienated and the desperate; it just leads to further decay of whatever brain cells you have left.

hollowdriver13 said:Nah, you got me wrong there. It doesn't mean I was out there partying during the lockdowns or anything, I just did my best to roll with whatever was happening at the time.

Anyway, since we’re drifting away from the main topic—let's talk inflation, money printing, those rock-bottom interest rates, and how much of this mess is due to war versus everything else? We could even bring in Alessio Rastati, since he loves playing economist and dropping theories without much actual substance behind them.

So, how much of this inflation was actually caused by monetary expansion and low interest rates, and how much can we really pin on the war?
Also, if inflation is such a bad thing, why is everyone so terrified of deflation hitting the economy? At what point does "normal" annual inflation cross the line into runaway hyperinflation?
Basically, what's the real difference between "good" and "bad" inflation, and what's driving the climb more: the endless money printing or the conflict abroad? And what kind of ratio are we looking at?

Thanks in advance!

Half of your questions don't have an answer because economics isn't an exact science (despite what some people claim), and the other half feels like you're just flailing, trying to prove that sanctions actually matter and haven't had any impact on the chaos we've seen over the last few weeks. You aren't entirely wrong, though; Ukraine is still standing, so you could argue that the sanctions have at least some level of utility.

Joshua Myers432 said:Half of your questions don't have an answer because economics isn't an exact science (despite what some people claim), and the other half feels like you're just flailing, trying to prove that sanctions actually matter and haven't had any impact on the chaos we've seen over the last few weeks. You aren't entirely wrong, though; Ukraine is still standing, so you could argue that the sanctions have at least some level of utility.

What do you mean they don't make sense? The whole point of sanctions is to target Russia—otherwise, why would everyone be whining so loudly about getting them lifted?
Did you even bother reading my previous post?

hollowdriver13 said:Nah, you got me wrong there. It doesn't mean I was out there partying during the lockdowns or anything, I just did my best to roll with whatever was happening at the time.

Anyway, since we’re drifting away from the main topic—let's talk inflation, money printing, those rock-bottom interest rates, and how much of this mess is due to war versus everything else? We could even bring in Alessio Rastati, since he loves playing economist and dropping theories without much actual substance behind them.

So, how much of this inflation was actually caused by monetary expansion and low interest rates, and how much can we really pin on the war?
Also, if inflation is such a bad thing, why is everyone so terrified of deflation hitting the economy? At what point does "normal" annual inflation cross the line into runaway hyperinflation?
Basically, what's the real difference between "good" and "bad" inflation, and what's driving the climb more: the endless money printing or the conflict abroad? And what kind of ratio are we looking at?

Thanks in advance!

On top of that—and this is clearly by design—they disrupt energy supplies and goods movement while simultaneously ramping up the frantic printing of dollars. It’s basically a desperate attempt to patch holes on a sinking ship.

It feels like the idiots in power are just throwing gasoline on a fire. It’s high time we stop them or vote them out. Do whatever you want, but I've seen enough.

We are watching a catastrophe unfold in slow motion, and it all traces back to Year zero (2020).

Joshua Myers432 said:Half of your questions don't have an answer because economics isn't an exact science (despite what some people claim), and the other half feels like you're just flailing, trying to prove that sanctions actually matter and haven't had any impact on the chaos we've seen over the last few weeks. You aren't entirely wrong, though; Ukraine is still standing, so you could argue that the sanctions have at least some level of utility.

His issue is that he went on the defensive—which, let's be honest, is basically admitting defeat when you're arguing online.

Now it's back to you to actually show how much—and in what ways—the war in Ukraine is hitting the global economy.

Politicians love hiding behind "public sentiment" or "the will of the people" because they never want to commit to anything real. If they actually said something concrete, everyone would see they're full of it.

The Russian government is looking at shutting down state institutions across Russia following a massive collapse in budget revenue—we’re talking a deficit exceeding $3 trillion by mid-March.

https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/stat...V1v6boHYA&s=19

hollowdriver13 said:So you're telling me that massive money printing and those near-zero interest rates from the Fed during COVID didn't play a role at all?

If that's the case, then wouldn't it be pretty helpful to see an actual, well-reasoned breakdown of inflation regarding the war? I mean, specifically looking at the impact of the war versus the massive surge in the total money supply that happened right before things kicked off—basically, what would inflation look like if the war hadn't even happened?

Thanks in advance.

Look, explain to me how food prices are jumping by 10% to 20% solely because of excessive money printing. Are people suddenly eating two cartons of eggs instead of one just because government subsidies, which were roughly equal to minimum wage, suddenly appeared out of nowhere? That doesn't track.

If you ask me, about 60% of the blame lies with all that cash being pumped into the system during the pandemic and the subsequent destruction of production, while the other 40% comes down to this senseless war and the resulting sanctions.

Tl;dr

If the war hadn't happened, wage growth would have stayed in lockstep with inflation, and we wouldn't be seeing those nasty 5% month-over-month drops.