Sanctions on Russia

Nancy Gomez26 said:That role is reserved for those who actually possess the drive to move forward—though, realistically, most lack any capacity beyond the ability to crawl through dark, narrow tunnels. To be fair, one must admit that such a skill requires endurance; you have to be able to withstand the pressure. In the end, the reward always matches the level of effort and intellect applied. Under Joseph Stalin, those specific survival skills were mostly focused on basic biological persistence, but that is a different conversation entirely.

And look, it all boils down to this tangled web of manipulation, personality traits, connections, and raw power...

The USSR (and by extension, Russia) truly provides an extraordinary backdrop for psychoanalysis.

Think about it this way... one moment it's "the generalissimo has fallen," and suddenly you're looking at Nikita Khrushchev. He stayed in power as long as he could, and then his successor... Leonid Brezhnev...

During the attempts to oust Khrushchev in 1957, he backed his friend, which earned him a promotion to a seat on the Politburo. In that role, Brezhnev continued to support his buddy right up until the shifts began in 1962. Meanwhile, in 1960, he became the leader of the USSR, though regardless of how grand the title sounded, it was essentially just a ceremonial role in practice. By 1963, most members of the Politburo (which was called the Presidium back then) had concluded that Khrushchev was doing more harm than good for the nation. During a "small" conspiracy at the time, they forced Frol Kozlov to step down from his position as the potential successor to the head of state, handing that path over to Brezhnev instead. The actual change in leadership didn't fully take hold until October 14, 1964, when the Suslov-Kosigin-Brezhnev faction finally succeeded in their plot to remove Khrushchev.

Those old tales about wicked Turkish sultans tossing their (half) brothers into the Bosphorus feel like simple bedtime stories for children compared to the saga of the "brothers" in the East...

dustyowl29 said:Yeah, the European Union is headed straight for rock bottom—it'll end up looking like Africa, Mamulica... Honestly, Russia wants to rule the world. You should probably pack your bags and move north right now.
And what exactly do you mean by "cesspool"? Only you would know what that implies..

Many people are familiar with the term, which carries several layers of meaning. Even the ancient Romans understood the concept of 'cloaca maxima'..

https://www.britannica.com/
cloaca (Latin: cloaca).

1. In Roman times, an underground sewer system used to drain waste and wastewater.

2. Figuratively, a collection point for filth; the moral decay of a specific social environment.

3. In zoology → a common cavity for waste excretion.

analogbear5 said:And what exactly have these neoliberal organizations actually achieved in their history? Give me something concrete—like an actual trade agreement or a customs union.

Neoliberal? 🤣

Regarding this topic, that crowd basically botched the sanctions on Russia and managed to turn a tidy profit off the scraps left behind in the European Union. Beyond that, you have to consider this long-term political-economic framework:

Belt and Road Initiative

Of course, I'm probably just talking to a brick wall here. No matter how many years pass, I'll still be met with the same look of utter bewilderment and ignorance.

goldenorca11 said:I can see you really buy into that theory! Honestly, I don't quite get it—if you have the time and energy, please walk me through your logic. To me, saying "mostly" and "only a few percent" are two very different things.

The rest of this doesn't really fit the topic (sanctions on Russia). You might want to dive deeper into that on a different thread; I'm sure there's a dedicated New World Order discussion somewhere on this forum. 😁
I'm dying to know, though—are we going to be ruled by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, George Soros, or the Masons? Is Xi a Mason? What about Vladimir Putin? Or Kim Jong-un? Even the Associated Press? 🙂

http://www.americanforum.com/showpost.php?p=9...postcount=9129

Right now, BRENT is at ~$80.

Based on the formula mentioned above, the Russians are selling/delivering:

ESPO: ~$73
URAL: ~$70

Noah Diaz said:Many people are familiar with the term, which carries several layers of meaning. Even the ancient Romans understood the concept of 'cloaca maxima'..

https://www.britannica.com/
cloaca (Latin: cloaca).

1. In Roman times, an underground sewer system used to drain waste and wastewater.

2. Figuratively, a collection point for filth; the moral decay of a specific social environment.

3. In zoology → a common cavity for waste excretion.

Neoliberal? 🤣

Regarding this topic, that crowd basically botched the sanctions on Russia and managed to turn a tidy profit off the scraps left behind in the European Union. Beyond that, you have to consider this long-term political-economic framework:

Belt and Road Initiative

Of course, I'm probably just talking to a brick wall here. No matter how many years pass, I'll still be met with the same look of utter bewilderment and ignorance.

http://www.americanforum.com/showpost.php?p=9...postcount=9129

Right now, BRENT is at ~$80.

Based on the formula mentioned above, the Russians are selling/delivering:

ESPO: ~$73
URAL: ~$70

Aha!

Russian Urals oil futures traded at over $52 per barrel, rebounding from the two-year lows of $48.4 touched on March 20th as eased concerns about banking sector turmoil supported crude oil benchmarks worldwide. Moscow’s efforts to restore oil revenues after sweeping sanctions from the West also underpinned The Russian referenca brand , as Urals oil traded AT its lowest discount to Brent since June 2022. Shunned demand fra Europe made Russian oil more attractive for Asian buyers, with India surging by four Times in March 2023 compared to the prior year. Also, China’s economic recovery magnified expectations of higher demand in the world’s second-largest economy. To add, Moscow stated it would slash crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day from March to June in response to Europe’s and the G7’s oil embargo. The move aims to increase the revenues from oil shipments as the country faces an unsustainably wide current account deficit.

since the country is dealing with an unsustainably massive deficit.



https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Urals is around ~58$ (57.45), whereas it was near 70$ back around New Year's. Today is April 1st, 2023. Happy April Fools'! 😁
Did you miss that, or do you actually think—or believe—that's incorrect?

Noah Diaz said:Many people are familiar with the term, which carries several layers of meaning. Even the ancient Romans understood the concept of 'cloaca maxima'..

https://www.britannica.com/
cloaca (Latin: cloaca).

1. In Roman times, an underground sewer system used to drain waste and wastewater.

2. Figuratively, a collection point for filth; the moral decay of a specific social environment.

3. In zoology → a common cavity for waste excretion.

Neoliberal? 🤣

Regarding this topic, that crowd basically botched the sanctions on Russia and managed to turn a tidy profit off the scraps left behind in the European Union. Beyond that, you have to consider this long-term political-economic framework:

Belt and Road Initiative

Of course, I'm probably just talking to a brick wall here. No matter how many years pass, I'll still be met with the same look of utter bewilderment and ignorance.

http://www.americanforum.com/showpost.php?p=9...postcount=9129

Right now, BRENT is at ~$80.

Based on the formula mentioned above, the Russians are selling/delivering:

ESPO: ~$73
URAL: ~$70

Sure, people can daydream about a massive project stretching from China to Europe—passing through Russia. But do you actually know how much China invested in the Russian portion of that last year? Let me help you out: the number is somewhere between 1 and -1.

On the flip side, moving in a logical direction via Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey there is actual movement.

BRI investments in Iraq: $10.5 billion (2021)
BRI investments in Saudi Arabia: $5.5 billion—cooperation is especially vital given the Saudi Vision 2030 project.
In the other 147 countries, Chinese investments total: $28.4 billion.

Russia, let me repeat: zero. And then there's Sri Lanka, which went bankrupt, but hey, let's not get bogged down in the negatives right now.

Beyond that, trading in Chinese currency has spiked significantly—instead of petrodollars, Russia is stacking up petroyuan. Last December, the Russian National Wealth Fund decided that 60% of assets would be held in yuan.)

This means Russian trade won't rely on the dollar rate, but rather on decisions made by the Chinese Communist Party and the People's Bank of China. And even then, it'll still loop back to the US dollar because the yuan's stability is largely backed by Chinese dollar reserves.

At the end of the day, Russia can only count on real, concrete help from China—and China knows it.

brightheron64 said:The phenomenon of flagellants bowing down to a "Great Leader" has existed since the dawn of time and, frankly, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. 🕺

In places where they actually have a decent GDP worth mentioning... there just isn't any of that.

analogbear5 said:Sure, people can daydream about a massive project stretching from China to Europe—passing through Russia. But do you actually know how much China invested in the Russian portion of that last year? Let me help you out: the number is somewhere between 1 and -1.

On the flip side, moving in a logical direction via Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey there is actual movement.

BRI investments in Iraq: $10.5 billion (2021)
BRI investments in Saudi Arabia: $5.5 billion—cooperation is especially vital given the Saudi Vision 2030 project.
In the other 147 countries, Chinese investments total: $28.4 billion.

Russia, let me repeat: zero. And then there's Sri Lanka, which went bankrupt, but hey, let's not get bogged down in the negatives right now.

Beyond that, trading in Chinese currency has spiked significantly—instead of petrodollars, Russia is stacking up petroyuan. Last December, the Russian National Wealth Fund decided that 60% of assets would be held in yuan.)

This means Russian trade won't rely on the dollar rate, but rather on decisions made by the Chinese Communist Party and the People's Bank of China. And even then, it'll still loop back to the US dollar because the yuan's stability is largely backed by Chinese dollar reserves.

At the end of the day, Russia can only count on real, concrete help from China—and China knows it.

Russia is going to start losing this war very clearly and very soon. Even if they have more weapons and ammo on paper, they just don't have the edge when it comes to technology, tactical strategy, or—most importantly—human motivation.
Putin is facing a much tougher challenge than the Mexicans did during the American Civil War. Back then, they actually had reliable census data and those old myths about specific territories and secret agreements to lean on. They could strategically decide whether to target majority areas or push into minority regions where there was hardly anyone left.

The situation in Ukraine is way more complicated. Everyone speaks Russian, even though more and more Ukrainians are picking up the Ukrainian language. Religion is also a shared factor between both sides, but with the organizational split between the Kyiv and Moscow Patriarchates, you also have the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in the mix.

Putin lacks a clear objective, whereas the Ukrainians have one: a free Ukraine. As for Russia, they won't escape sanctions until they lose this war and hand Putin over to justice. The Chinese will be more than happy to help them out with goods and diplomatic leverage in exchange for cheap oil and gas. I remember hearing how Xi visited Russia for just three days to give Putin enough breathing room to offer him oil and gas in a way that didn't look like he was being humiliated. I don't think Putin quite grasped the subtext there. A Ferengi would never pass up a chance to snag free oil, but they'll definitely remember that Putin blew his shot. If we see China's GDP skyrocket, we'll know they're getting that oil even cheaper than they let on publicly. Maybe even for free!

By the end of March, federal revenue hit $45 billion while spending climbed to $96.7 billion. That puts the budget deficit sitting at over $51 billion through the first quarter.

https://tass.com/economy/1598147

So, for the first three months, they pulled in $3.49 trillion in revenue but blew through $7.5 trillion in spending. 👍

The mass exodus of major global corporations from Russia continues:

Last year, I honestly thought we were looking at a return to the 1950s. Now? It’s starting to look more like a slide back into the 19th century.
I caught a report yesterday suggesting they might go as far as banning YouTube entirely in Russia, followed closely by a total ban on VPNs. If that happens, they aren't just cutting off the internet; they're effectively dragging themselves back into the Stone Age. 👍

Anthony Jones15 said:The mass exodus of major global corporations from Russia continues:

Last year, I honestly thought we were looking at a return to the 1950s. Now? It’s starting to look more like a slide back into the 19th century.
I caught a report yesterday suggesting they might go as far as banning YouTube entirely in Russia, followed closely by a total ban on VPNs. If that happens, they aren't just cutting off the internet; they're effectively dragging themselves back into the Stone Age. 👍

It seems a bit late in the game for that regime to attempt a total decoupling of their internet from the rest of the world. From a technical standpoint, that's ancient history. Even if they cut the physical lines, people will just pivot to Starlink. Honestly, staying connected via traditional wired infrastructure actually serves their interests better—it gives them a semblance of oversight and control over communications. Once everyone migrates to Starlink or some future satellite provider, that control evaporates completely. But then again, given everything we've witnessed so far, they might just try anyway.

Like I said, everything is moving exactly according to schedule. The cartel has started artificially pumping up fuel prices, and yet everyone acts shocked. How can they be so surprised?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...sh-production/
Oil prices surged almost 8pc as markets opened in Asia on Monday morning after a surprise production cut by Saudi-led oil producers.

The OPEC cartel of oil-exporting countries Said on Sunday They would Slash output by More Than 1 m barrels a day, amid a scramble to drive up crude prices in the face of the stuttering global economy.

Brent Crude leapt to $86 in trading in Asia, after closing at $79.89 on Friday, a major rise that risks adding to inflation and hurting motorists at the pump.

It risks a fresh clash between the Kingdom and Joe Biden , Who threatened The Saudis with “ consequences ” after previous cuts in October.

The reduction in output is likely to be regarded as helpful for Russia, which is battling a slump in oil and gas revenues as it attempts to fund President Vladimir Putin's War with Ukraine.

Brent Crude saw a nice jump and is currently sitting at ~$84. Based on the established formula, here is how Russia is selling/delivering to interested buyers:

ESPO: ~$77
URAL: ~$74

At these rates, even the Japanese vassal will be buying. They got their "gold star" from the big boss in Washington, and they even made a fresh little trip to the Holy Land—meaning Ukraine. I haven't seen a sanctions circus this ridiculous even in the movies; it's a comedy of errors. 🤣

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-b...e-cap-1395accb
The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but One of Washington ’ sa closest allies in Asia is now buying oil AT prices above The cap.

Japan Got The U. S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian Energy. The concession shows Japan ’ reliance on Russia for fossil fuels, which analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to Back Ukraine more fully in its War with Russia.

By the way, we aren't just talking about one or two tankers occasionally ignoring the $60 cap. There are "quite a few" more out there, all using well-established transfer routes spread across the globe. 😁

https://lloydslist.maritimeintellige...sfer-crackdown RUSSIA has pushed back at the International Maritime Organization ’ sa definition of sanctions-evading ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil as illicit, saying it unfairly equates the activities with those involving unregulated fishing and wildlife trades.

The IMO Legal Committee’s final report took aim at the surge in shady, high-risk ship-to-ship transfers. These dangerous maneuvers

have become increasingly common in international waters off the coasts of Spain and Greece over the last year, all used to move Russian oil cargoes.
The committee heard that somewhere between 300 and 600 tankers—part of what's known as a "dark fleet" or "shadow fleet"—have been performing these mid-ocean handoffs to dodge Western sanctions and sky-high insurance premiums, effectively slipping under the radar of flag and coastal states alike.
Ecuador raised red flags too, noting that 300 to 400 fishing boats and tankers are conducting similar transfers right on the edge of their Exclusive Economic Zone. If an oil spill happens, sensitive spots like the Galapagos Islands could be devastated.

After witnessing this massive spike in tankers dodging sanctions and breaking international rules, regulators at the IMO are now scrambling to figure out how to plug these loopholes and tighten enforcement before a major safety disaster occurs.

So, what's the verdict? Are we looking at a jackpot or what?

Senator Florida, Marco Rubio:

Brazil, the biggest player in the Western Hemisphere south of us, just inked a trade deal with China where they’ve decided to start trading in their own national currencies. Basically, they're bypassing the dollar. These nations are building out a parallel economy, one that's totally independent of the United States. In just five years, we won't be able to dictate terms to anyone through sanctions anymore. By then, there will be so many countries trading with their own money instead of the dollar that we simply won't be able to slap sanctions on everyone at once.

🤣

Maybe there's a silver lining here. These sanctions against Russia might actually end up doing something good for the rest of the world.

Mark Carter14 said:Senator Florida, Marco Rubio:

Brazil, the biggest player in the Western Hemisphere south of us, just inked a trade deal with China where they’ve decided to start trading in their own national currencies. Basically, they're bypassing the dollar. These nations are building out a parallel economy, one that's totally independent of the United States. In just five years, we won't be able to dictate terms to anyone through sanctions anymore. By then, there will be so many countries trading with their own money instead of the dollar that we simply won't be able to slap sanctions on everyone at once.

🤣

Maybe there's a silver lining here. These sanctions against Russia might actually end up doing something good for the rest of the world.

Hey, refresh my memory here—what exactly did Brazil and China sign back in 2013 right before that BRICS summit?

Let me help you out with that one. They signed an agreement to start trading using their own local currencies. Everyone was making such a huge deal about how the dollar was basically dead in the water... meanwhile, they're still going strong with their own currency trades. So, how's that "killing the dollar" plan working out for them now that we're a whole decade down the road? ☕

hollowdriver13 said:Hey, refresh my memory here—what exactly did Brazil and China sign back in 2013 right before that BRICS summit?

Let me help you out with that one. They signed an agreement to start trading using their own local currencies. Everyone was making such a huge deal about how the dollar was basically dead in the water... meanwhile, they're still going strong with their own currency trades. So, how's that "killing the dollar" plan working out for them now that we're a whole decade down the road? ☕

National currencies are slowly dying—there’s really no two ways about it—but if we're being honest, the U.S. dollar is the absolute slowest of the bunch on its long march toward the second world. 😁

hollowdriver13 said:Hey, refresh my memory here—what exactly did Brazil and China sign back in 2013 right before that BRICS summit?

Let me help you out with that one. They signed an agreement to start trading using their own local currencies. Everyone was making such a huge deal about how the dollar was basically dead in the water... meanwhile, they're still going strong with their own currency trades. So, how's that "killing the dollar" plan working out for them now that we're a whole decade down the road? ☕

Don't bother explaining that to me; save it for that senator who's whining because he won't have anyone left to slap sanctions on. Then again, what does he actually know? 🤣

Mark Carter14 said:Senator Florida, Marco Rubio:

Brazil, the biggest player in the Western Hemisphere south of us, just inked a trade deal with China where they’ve decided to start trading in their own national currencies. Basically, they're bypassing the dollar. These nations are building out a parallel economy, one that's totally independent of the United States. In just five years, we won't be able to dictate terms to anyone through sanctions anymore. By then, there will be so many countries trading with their own money instead of the dollar that we simply won't be able to slap sanctions on everyone at once.

🤣

Maybe there's a silver lining here. These sanctions against Russia might actually end up doing something good for the rest of the world.

What a massive pile of nonsense. The specific currency used for trading doesn't really have anything to do with the ability or influence the USA has to slap sanctions on someone.

The dollar is the currency of the most powerful economy and military force on the planet. Compared to what Brazil or China are doing, it’s incredibly stable and welcomed everywhere across the globe.

It honestly doesn't even matter what the underlying trade commodity is. You still end up setting the price in dollars. At the moment of the transaction, you just swap from Brazilian Reals to Chinese Yuan or vice versa using the dollar exchange rate.
Doing that isn't going to strengthen the dollar or somehow bail out America; you're just looking to avoid the currency risks that come with weaker currencies—basically, you're just helping yourself.

Think about it: are you really going to save your money in Brazilian Reals or Chinese Yuan, or are you going to keep your savings in dollars? It's the same logic as people back home hoarding cash in local currency even when there's zero risk involved.

And besides, what does it even mean if some politician in D.C. suddenly declares that "we" are going to start trading with, say, Morocco using Euros or British Pounds instead? Who exactly is "trading" those currencies just because some leader issues an order? And more importantly, who on the other side is actually going to listen to those orders?

It’s almost certain that China and Brazil are settling their trade deals with the US and the rest of the globe using their own currencies; BRICS is just starting to gain some serious momentum.

A really sharp piece by the French economist, Professor Jacques Sapir, published in American Affairs. He dives into how much the West gets wrong when it comes to the actual scale of the Russian and Chinese economies.

A Geopolitical Assessment of the Russian and Chinese Economies

Ever since President Vladimir Putin's War with Ukraine kicked off, everyone's been obsessing over how big the Russian and Chinese economies actually are compared to Western ones. In the beginning, you had policymakers trying to downplay their global impact by comparing Russia's GDP to, say, Spain or Italy. But now that these geopolitical tensions are reviving old Cold War-style blocs, we really need to get a clear handle on just how significant these economies truly are.

My favorite little mantra: the Russian economy is basically on par with Spain. 🤣

Relying solely on raw GDP numbers has probably given the West a false sense of security. On paper, Western economies look dominant, and our ability to slap on sanctions seems decisive. But there's a catch. The West relies so heavily on service sectors—leaving us pretty weak in direct productive industries like manufacturing, mining, and agriculture—that we've created massive vulnerabilities in our supply chains. When things are peaceful and trade flows freely, you might not even notice these gaps. But in an era of deglobalization, intense geopolitical rivalry, and state-on-state conflict, these weaknesses hit hard, while basic industrial sectors suddenly become everything. Getting a real look at this means the West has to rethink its entire strategic position.

Then, after breaking down the gap between GDP and PPP, he notes:

If we look at the USA, Germany, China, and Russia through the lens of exchange rates (Table 1) versus PPP (Table 2), a few things jump out. First, using standard exchange rates significantly undersells the size of the Chinese and Russian economies. By that metric, the Russian economy looks half the size of Germany's and about 130 percent of Spain's. China, despite growing faster, was roughly two-thirds the size of the US economy back in 2019. But once you switch to the PPP method, the profile of Russia and China shifts dramatically. The Russian economy almost reaches parity with Germany, and the Chinese economy hit parity with the US in 2016, having held a slight lead ever since.

The discrepancy between exchange rate methods and purchasing power parity is rarely discussed in mainstream literature regarding China and Russia. This oversight could easily lead to overconfidence in how effective sanctions actually are. Even public-private partnership metrics might still be failing to capture the true strategic weight of the Russian and Chinese economies when it comes to major geopolitical maneuvering.

He points out that the West has seen massive growth in services over the last 50 years, noting:

Is it even worth questioning the actual value of certain services? I mean, sure, if you're looking at a service-based economy during peacetime, everything seems perfectly legitimate. But things shift when you're dealing with war—or even just the constant threat of it. In a conflict scenario, services tend to lose their shine compared to the heavy hitters like agriculture, manufacturing, and construction. It makes you wonder. To really get an accurate comparison between different economies, shouldn't we be looking closely at the share of goods-producing sectors? That's how you actually see what they're capable of.

At first glance, you can see where Russia sits on the spectrum. It’s tucked right between China, where services only account for about 49 percent of GDP, and heavyweights like the United States, France, or Italy, where services make up at least 75 percent of the GDP. Then you've got Germany sitting somewhere in the middle, with services at around 69 percent. Why does Russia look this way? It really comes down to the sheer scale of its industrial and agricultural sectors—that specific structural makeup is what dictates its actual economic weight, just as you can see in Table 4.

If you take a look at Tables 4 and 5, things start looking a lot different. When you strip away everything else and focus strictly on direct production activities, the GDP of Russia and China looks significantly larger than most people realize. It’s actually pretty wild—China’s economy is becoming nine times stronger than Germany's and three times the size of the US economy. Even Russia is on track to eventually overtake Germany, eventually sitting at more than double the size of France. It really forces you to rethink the whole narrative, doesn't it? It flies in the face of those common claims that Russia is basically just performing on par with Spain, or that China is still trailing far behind the United States. The math tells a very different story.

It’s worth noting that even this doesn't really capture the true strength of these economies. It’s just one thing. You also have to consider another factor...
Innovation index: what are we actually looking at here?

Looking at the numbers, China is still sitting comfortably at the top with a massive lead, though Russia has slipped back to sixth place. If you step back and look at the bigger picture, the combined patent count from China and Russia is almost double what you'd see from the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom put together. It really makes you wonder about the actual balance of power on this particular front, doesn't it?

If you really want to pin down the actual scale of the Russian economy, there’s only one way to do it properly: look at where Russia sits in the global export market for key commodities. It’s the ultimate yardstick, isn't it?

Back in 2019, Russia was basically sitting on a mountain of resources. We're talking the world's second-largest producer of platinum, cobalt, and vanadium. They were third in gold and nickel, fourth in silver and phosphates, fifth in iron ore, and sixth when it came to uranium and lead. Not to mention their agricultural game? Massive. They were the top wheat exporter globally and led the pack in barley, buckwheat, oats, and rye—plus they were the number two player in sunflower seeds. Then there’s the energy side of things. Obviously, Russia is the biggest gas exporter on the planet with the largest reserves to back it up, and they rank second in crude oil exports. When you combine that industrial muscle with their control over raw materials, it really puts their alliance with China into perspective. It makes sense, doesn't it? If anyone tries to pull the plug or even just significantly throttle trade with Russia, what do you think happens to the global commodities markets? It wouldn't be pretty. Expect massive disruptions.

It’s pretty obvious now why trying to measure the economic muscle of China and Russia solely through GDP—specifically when you're using exchange rate methods—ends up painting a totally distorted picture of their actual power. It’s a flawed way to look at things, isn't it? And honestly, relying on such skewed data could lead to some seriously bad decision-making. The industrial production metrics we’ve been highlighting? They matter even more now than they did before. Look, it’s not like we’ve officially pivoted to a full-blown wartime economy, but let's be honest—outside of Ukraine, economies all over the world are feeling the heavy weight of current geostrategic realities. It's unavoidable. If we actually want to get serious about assessing the balance of economic power and making decisions that aren't just guesswork, shouldn't our priority be using a diverse set of economic indicators? We need a systematic search for the data points that actually reflect reality on the ground. Otherwise, what are we even doing?

Thomas Stewart8 said:So, what's the verdict? Are we looking at a jackpot or what?

It honestly looks like they just pulled a whole fleet of tanks straight out of storage! 😁

Mark Carter14 As specified by Anthony Jones15:
I just finished reading an absolutely brilliant piece by the economist Jacques Sapir over at American Affairs. He dives deep into how the West completely misreads the actual scale of the Russian and Chinese economies. It’s such a fascinating read!

Let's take a serious look at the geostrategy behind the economies of Russia and China.

This is my absolute favorite mantra: the Russian economy is basically performing at the same level as Spain! 🤣

I totally see where you're coming from with the methodology, but I have to push back on the actual parameters. When we're looking at the scale of Russia and China, comparing them solely against the USA, Germany, France, or Spain just doesn't give the full picture. You really have to measure them against the combined strength of the EU and NATO to get an accurate sense of things!
When you look at the big picture, the EU is a real powerhouse. If we’re talking strictly about military dynamics, you have NATO on one side—a massive alliance with 31 full members and two key partners (Sweden is well on its way, and you can't exactly leave Ukraine out of the conversation while they're fighting a war with Russia). On the other side, you've got Russia, which is currently facing heavy sanctions. It's quite a lopsided matchup!
China’s strength can be measured against the power of the USA, but right now, it seems pretty clear they aren't looking to jump into a war with Ukraine or offer any overt military support to Russia. Even so, the energy trade at those sweet, discounted rates is still moving full steam ahead. While Japan might be picking up oil at prices above the cap, China is almost certainly scoring much better deals. At the end of the day, China needs that oil, but I get the feeling Russia needs China even more than the reverse!
If we’re looking at the numbers, a sanctioned Russia might actually be stronger than France, Germany, or Spain if you're just pitting them against each other one-on-one. But let's get real—they aren't even close to standing up to the EU, and they certainly can't touch NATO. When you look at the current landscape—where everything comes down to stockpiles of weapons and ammo, total production capacity, and sheer technological edge—it's pretty clear that Russia is losing ground.

Just for comparison:
The EU has about 447 million people living there!
The USA has 333 million people!
Russia has a population of 143 million people.

surface:
Russia is looking at roughly 17 million barrels per day.
Canada is about 10 million square miles!
USA ~10 million BTU
The EU hit 4.2 million cubic meters! That's such fantastic news!

It looks like Russia's attempt at a limited mobilization just didn't cut it against Ukraine's partial mobilization, especially considering the steady flow of NATO weaponry coming in. If you look at the math, Ukraine is essentially operating under a full-scale mobilization backed by a complete supply chain of NATO gear—though I suppose modern aircraft remains the big question mark there. Ultimately, Russia’s limited mobilization strategy simply hasn't been able to overcome that momentum. It just can't be done! Win.
Poland has stepped up, promising to send troops if Ukraine faces a total collapse—though honestly, that kind of move would likely only happen if Russia went for full-scale mobilization. If we look at the numbers, a total mobilization from Russia versus a combined force from Ukraine and Poland puts Russia ahead with a 2:1 advantage in manpower. But here’s the kicker: when you factor in the full military potential of NATO—think cutting-edge aircraft and advanced tech, excluding nuclear options—it changes the math entirely against Russia. It just can't be done! Win!

This is drifting a little bit from our main discussion on sanctions against Russia, but since we're all busy pointing out how much muscle Russia and China are flexing lately, I think we need to talk about the response. It’s not just about Germany or France acting on their own; we really need to see the full strength of the EU and NATO working together.

When it comes to patent disputes, the breakdown looks pretty clear: China and Russia are lining up against the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
When you look at the big picture, you really have to weigh Russia (and potentially China) against the combined strength of all 31 NATO members plus two others. If we want to be truly realistic about the global balance, we should probably throw Japan and South Korea into the mix on the side of the West too! It’s quite a massive comparison when you break it down like that. 😁

To put this in different words: If you try to frame the economies of China and Russia solely against Germany or France, rather than looking at them through the lens of the EU or NATO, you end up with a totally skewed picture of how much power these players actually hold. Honestly, it’s a mistake that can lead to some really poor decision-making!
We shouldn't lose sight of one thing here: China isn't actually in a conflict, and while NATO is busy shipping out weapons, they aren't in a direct fight either. I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea!