Sanctions on Russia

goldenorca11 said:

Mark Carter14 As specified by Anthony Jones15:
I just finished reading an absolutely brilliant piece by the economist Jacques Sapir over at American Affairs. He dives deep into how the West completely misreads the actual scale of the Russian and Chinese economies. It’s such a fascinating read!

Let's take a serious look at the geostrategy behind the economies of Russia and China.

This is my absolute favorite mantra: the Russian economy is basically performing at the same level as Spain! 🤣

I totally see where you're coming from with the methodology, but I have to push back on the actual parameters. When we're looking at the scale of Russia and China, comparing them solely against the USA, Germany, France, or Spain just doesn't give the full picture. You really have to measure them against the combined strength of the EU and NATO to get an accurate sense of things!
When you look at the big picture, the EU is a real powerhouse. If we’re talking strictly about military dynamics, you have NATO on one side—a massive alliance with 31 full members and two key partners (Sweden is well on its way, and you can't exactly leave Ukraine out of the conversation while they're fighting a war with Russia). On the other side, you've got Russia, which is currently facing heavy sanctions. It's quite a lopsided matchup!
China’s strength can be measured against the power of the USA, but right now, it seems pretty clear they aren't looking to jump into a war with Ukraine or offer any overt military support to Russia. Even so, the energy trade at those sweet, discounted rates is still moving full steam ahead. While Japan might be picking up oil at prices above the cap, China is almost certainly scoring much better deals. At the end of the day, China needs that oil, but I get the feeling Russia needs China even more than the reverse!
If we’re looking at the numbers, a sanctioned Russia might actually be stronger than France, Germany, or Spain if you're just pitting them against each other one-on-one. But let's get real—they aren't even close to standing up to the EU, and they certainly can't touch NATO. When you look at the current landscape—where everything comes down to stockpiles of weapons and ammo, total production capacity, and sheer technological edge—it's pretty clear that Russia is losing ground.

Just for comparison:
The EU has about 447 million people living there!
The USA has 333 million people!
Russia has a population of 143 million people.

surface:
Russia is looking at roughly 17 million barrels per day.
Canada is about 10 million square miles!
USA ~10 million BTU
The EU hit 4.2 million cubic meters! That's such fantastic news!

It looks like Russia's attempt at a limited mobilization just didn't cut it against Ukraine's partial mobilization, especially considering the steady flow of NATO weaponry coming in. If you look at the math, Ukraine is essentially operating under a full-scale mobilization backed by a complete supply chain of NATO gear—though I suppose modern aircraft remains the big question mark there. Ultimately, Russia’s limited mobilization strategy simply hasn't been able to overcome that momentum. It just can't be done! Win.
Poland has stepped up, promising to send troops if Ukraine faces a total collapse—though honestly, that kind of move would likely only happen if Russia went for full-scale mobilization. If we look at the numbers, a total mobilization from Russia versus a combined force from Ukraine and Poland puts Russia ahead with a 2:1 advantage in manpower. But here’s the kicker: when you factor in the full military potential of NATO—think cutting-edge aircraft and advanced tech, excluding nuclear options—it changes the math entirely against Russia. It just can't be done! Win!

This is drifting a little bit from our main discussion on sanctions against Russia, but since we're all busy pointing out how much muscle Russia and China are flexing lately, I think we need to talk about the response. It’s not just about Germany or France acting on their own; we really need to see the full strength of the EU and NATO working together.

When it comes to patent disputes, the breakdown looks pretty clear: China and Russia are lining up against the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
When you look at the big picture, you really have to weigh Russia (and potentially China) against the combined strength of all 31 NATO members plus two others. If we want to be truly realistic about the global balance, we should probably throw Japan and South Korea into the mix on the side of the West too! It’s quite a massive comparison when you break it down like that. 😁

To put this in different words: If you try to frame the economies of China and Russia solely against Germany or France, rather than looking at them through the lens of the EU or NATO, you end up with a totally skewed picture of how much power these players actually hold. Honestly, it’s a mistake that can lead to some really poor decision-making!
We shouldn't lose sight of one thing here: China isn't actually in a conflict, and while NATO is busy shipping out weapons, they aren't in a direct fight either. I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea!

Misunderstanding? Misunderstanding what? Everything about this is crystal clear.

Up until now, you guys were busy comparing Russia to Spain using this PDF. Now that it doesn't fit your narrative anymore, suddenly we have to compare them to NATO or the EU.

I shut down those little playground games of yours from the very beginning by laying out the actual frameworks:

SCO, BRICS and BRI

Frankly, these "sanctions" are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. 🤣

Nancy Lopez7 said:It honestly looks like they just pulled a whole fleet of tanks straight out of storage! 😁

Honestly, watching him go through this with all those little emojis—it's almost therapeutic. You can actually see the guy having a moment every once in a while.

Noah Diaz said:Misunderstanding? Misunderstanding what? Everything about this is crystal clear.

Up until now, you guys were busy comparing Russia to Spain using this PDF. Now that it doesn't fit your narrative anymore, suddenly we have to compare them to NATO or the EU.

I shut down those little playground games of yours from the very beginning by laying out the actual frameworks:

SCO, BRICS and BRI

Frankly, these "sanctions" are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. 🤣

Let’s just say—for the sake of argument—that the sanctions aren't working at all. Let's assume they're nothing more than a complete and utter failure.

Do you honestly think someone like you needs to go out of their way every single time—constantly pushing and trying to prove a point, all while hiding behind those little smilies?

Noah Diaz said:Misunderstanding? Misunderstanding what? Everything about this is crystal clear.

Up until now, you guys were busy comparing Russia to Spain using this PDF. Now that it doesn't fit your narrative anymore, suddenly we have to compare them to NATO or the EU.

I shut down those little playground games of yours from the very beginning by laying out the actual frameworks:

SCO, BRICS and BRI

Frankly, these "sanctions" are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. 🤣

What a load of nonsense. Just because people in Russia might enjoy cheaper bread or lower gas prices doesn't mean their economy is actually stronger; it just means their standard of living looks better on paper when you look at basic necessities compared to what the nominal GDP suggests. It’s a total illusion. At the end of the day, they still have to import almost all of their high-end technology and pay whatever premium the global market demands. Having cheap groceries sitting in a basket doesn't change the fact that they're bleeding cash to get the tech they actually need to function.

When you're talking about the sheer weight of an economy in terms of how much leverage it actually has to slap sanctions on someone, you really shouldn't be looking at GDP through the lens of Purchasing Power Parity. It’s a total distraction. Sanctions aren't some academic exercise in local buying power; they are tools designed to choke off international trade—the actual, hard-currency flow of goods and services between nations. That kind of global commerce moves according to market exchange rates, not some adjusted metric meant to account for how cheap a burger is in a rural town. If you want to understand who can actually pull the trigger on economic warfare, you look at the money that crosses borders, not the domestic purchasing math.

Russia’s natural resources are undeniably massive, and I get why everyone points to them as their biggest trump card, but let’s be honest here—calling that a real economy is honestly laughable. It isn't an economy at all; it's just a glorified gas station.

Trying to multiply Russia’s GDP—which is basically just half raw material exports at this point—by some arbitrary PPP index is honestly laughable. It’s a total joke. If you follow that logic, you’re essentially claiming that because a grocery basket in Russia costs half as much as it does elsewhere, the oil they export suddenly becomes twice as valuable. Like, come on. That makes zero sense. The value of the oil stays exactly what it is; you can't just conjure extra worth out of thin air just because their local cost of living is lower. It’s nonsense.

Noah Diaz said:Misunderstanding? Misunderstanding what? Everything about this is crystal clear.

Up until now, you guys were busy comparing Russia to Spain using this PDF. Now that it doesn't fit your narrative anymore, suddenly we have to compare them to NATO or the EU.

I shut down those little playground games of yours from the very beginning by laying out the actual frameworks:

SCO, BRICS and BRI

Frankly, these "sanctions" are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. 🤣

Forget Chinese achievements—we already know they're a superpower. They invested $42 billion globally last year. Give me something Russian.

Let me kick things off: hard liquor sales went up 7.5% last year, hitting 6.8 liters per capita. So yeah, there's definitely a reason to celebrate.

Russians love to drink, but they love a good trade deal even more.

Take this, for example: Russ just inked a deal with their partners in America for 120 trains, with a massive option to scale up later.

https://www.railway-technology.com/n...ures-contract/

Amtrak has issued a contract to Alstom for manufacturing 120 Amtrak trains with a sleeper facility, The New York Times reported.

In a joint venture (JV) with RVNL, Alstom will make these trains at a facility in Latur.

Additionally, Amtrak is said to have notified the Russian company that the work order also includes an option to increase the order to 200 trains, according to the news agency.

In addition to the TMH-RVNL Joint Venture, Amtrak sent a counteroffer to another JV, Titagarh-BHEL, for the manufacture of 80 Amtrak trains.

Clearly, those "sanctions" aren't stopping anyone.😁

Will they actually manage to build those trains while the tanks are still sitting around waiting? 😁

analogbear5 said:Forget Chinese achievements—we already know they're a superpower. They invested $42 billion globally last year. Give me something Russian.

Let me kick things off: hard liquor sales went up 7.5% last year, hitting 6.8 liters per capita. So yeah, there's definitely a reason to celebrate.

Of course there is! Russia has never been more powerful or prosperous, while the West finds itself broken and brought to its knees.
It is truly remarkable to see how people have embraced the cold, even going so far as to share their snacks with the local squirrels in the parks!
I am quite certain those pro-Russia crowd members on this forum will be cheering for the prosperity of Chicago and Oklahoma before summer even arrives, simply because there won't be anything left to eat here!

It’s pretty obvious when you look at the state of the Russian military that actual GDP figures and real budget numbers carry way more weight than some mystical PPP metric. Before the war even kicked off, people were trying to spin it like their $50 billion was somehow on par with the US having over $700 billion just because of how they calculated purchasing power.

I mean, think about it—when you're buying stuff on the global market, you pay the sticker price. You can't exactly walk up to a vendor and say, "Hey, I'll give you $30 because once I adjust for my local purchasing power, that's basically the same as $80 in the West." It just doesn't work that way in the real world.

hollowdriver13 said:It’s pretty obvious when you look at the state of the Russian military that actual GDP figures and real budget numbers carry way more weight than some mystical PPP metric. Before the war even kicked off, people were trying to spin it like their $50 billion was somehow on par with the US having over $700 billion just because of how they calculated purchasing power.

I mean, think about it—when you're buying stuff on the global market, you pay the sticker price. You can't exactly walk up to a vendor and say, "Hey, I'll give you $30 because once I adjust for my local purchasing power, that's basically the same as $80 in the West." It just doesn't work that way in the real world.

Purchasing Power Parity is completely irrelevant when you're trying to evaluate and compare national economies. It relies on adjusted GDP based on consumer baskets containing thousands of items, most of which aren't even identical from one country to the next. Because of this, the data accuracy is always highly questionable.
That is precisely why all serious economic analyses rely exclusively on nominal GDP.

Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

George Robinson43 said:Purchasing Power Parity is completely irrelevant when you're trying to evaluate and compare national economies. It relies on adjusted GDP based on consumer baskets containing thousands of items, most of which aren't even identical from one country to the next. Because of this, the data accuracy is always highly questionable.
That is precisely why all serious economic analyses rely exclusively on nominal GDP.

It’s pretty obvious to us, but the pro-Russia crowd won't hear a word about nominal GDP. They stick exclusively to PPP just so they can make their backwater towns look a hell of a lot better than they actually are. 😁

Noah Diaz said:Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

Which war are we even talking about?
If you had said that over in Russia, you’d be sitting in a prison cell right now—you know, thinking about that whole military operation and that "special" situation everyone talks about. 😁

gentlestag15 said:It’s pretty obvious to us, but the pro-Russia crowd won't hear a word about nominal GDP. They stick exclusively to PPP just so they can make their backwater towns look a hell of a lot better than they actually are. 😁

Which war are we even talking about?
If you had said that over in Russia, you’d be sitting in a prison cell right now—you know, thinking about that whole military operation and that "special" situation everyone talks about. 😁

Noah Diaz doesn't buy into this system, yet he sure loves milking all its perks. Since I'm already going off on a tangent about sanctions:

They're selling government debt to Russia.

Arthur Miller7 said:Noah Diaz doesn't buy into this system, yet he sure loves milking all its perks. Since I'm already going off on a tangent about sanctions:

They're selling government debt to Russia.

The real kicker is how Russia wants to trade in rubles with foreign countries and corporations—it's like they're trying to spin it into a new global trade currency.
Back in 2014, before the annexation of Crimea, you could grab a dollar for just 37 rubles.
Now? You're looking at 80 rubles, and that number is probably headed even higher.
Honestly, anyone holding onto rubles right now is just asking to lose money. It's a fool's errand.

The ruble’s been sliding against other currencies since early December—not exactly great news. It makes imports into Russia pricier while exports lose their edge. Meanwhile, Chinese people and Indian people are just sitting back, rubbing their hands together.

If you really want to grasp the difference between the nominal exchange rate of the ruble and its actual market value, there is no better way than simply observing how things work in the real world. Just track down a local currency exchange kiosk that deals in rubles and take a close look at their daily board. For instance, if you were to check out the rates over in a neighboring area:

Simply look at what they are charging to buy rubles, and you will see the truth right there in front of you. Honestly, Noah Diaz and his crowd can keep telling themselves whatever they want about how strong the ruble is, but the numbers don't lie.

analogbear5 said:The ruble’s been sliding against other currencies since early December—not exactly great news. It makes imports into Russia pricier while exports lose their edge. Meanwhile, Chinese people and Indian people are just sitting back, rubbing their hands together.

That’s just not the case, as the Russian economy has actually never been more resilient, largely because those sanctions seem to have come swinging back at the West like a boomerang, supposedly tearing them apart if you listen to the prevailing narrative.😁div>

Jessica Rivera37 said:If you really want to grasp the difference between the nominal exchange rate of the ruble and its actual market value, there is no better way than simply observing how things work in the real world. Just track down a local currency exchange kiosk that deals in rubles and take a close look at their daily board. For instance, if you were to check out the rates over in a neighboring area:

Simply look at what they are charging to buy rubles, and you will see the truth right there in front of you. Honestly, Noah Diaz and his crowd can keep telling themselves whatever they want about how strong the ruble is, but the numbers don't lie.

There are just zeros there—which basically means nobody is buying or selling rubles, much like the Danish crown right now...

dustyowl29 said:There are just zeros there—which basically means nobody is buying or selling rubles, much like the Danish crown right now...

Listen, John, I have to wonder why you're under the impression that there isn't any more trading involving the ruble over in Mexico. To be fair, some activity does exist in certain spots, but you really need to take a hard look at the spread between the bid and ask prices. To put it in more practical terms, it’s a bit like someone claiming the average exchange rate is 1 euro = $2.50, yet when you actually go to swap your dollars for euros, you aren't getting that mid-market rate; instead, you're stuck paying something closer to $3.75 per euro.

They might have been able to artificially pump the value for a little while, but that kind of thing eventually goes south. Honestly, if we don't see 1 USD = 100 ruble within the next three months, I will be genuinely shocked.

Arthur Miller7 said:Noah Diaz doesn't buy into this system, yet he sure loves milking all its perks. Since I'm already going off on a tangent about sanctions:

They're selling government debt to Russia.

I’ve already pointed this out here: they’re going to use those seized reserves to pay down their debts. You sell the debt to some high-interest lenders and somehow scrape together enough to cover the installments and the costs of the sanctions along the way. 😁