Sanctions on Russia

Noah Diaz said:Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

In my opinion, it’s arguably the most critical factor. I mean, at the end of the day, whoever has the capital has the means to fund their military. If you run out of money, you lose the war pretty quickly. It’s just how things work, I guess. Just watch.

Yeah.

It’s a hollow lie; the ruble will never see any real strength.😁

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtGXaYZW...jpg&name=large

It’s starting to slip. Slowly, but surely. 😍



USD - RUB

Noah Diaz said:Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

It depends on how you look at it. In the States, back after 1990, we saw years where the economy took a hit under leaders like Joe Biden—and yet, people still voted them into high office because they aren't just some pushovers.

At the end of the day, it’s a non-issue. A smart nation chooses smart leaders.

The American people stick with their guys like the AP, while the Russians back Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainians support Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

I'm honestly thinking about moving to Western Ukraine; I feel like the folks there have more sense than people here!

dustyowl29 said:There are just zeros there—which basically means nobody is buying or selling rubles, much like the Danish crown right now...

It seems like some trading is actually taking place after all.
https://www.bankrate.com/currencies/ruble-usd/

Look at that spread ☕

Michelle Nelson4 said:It seems like some trading is actually taking place after all.
https://www.bankrate.com/currencies/ruble-usd/

Look at that spread ☕

The Ruble is king:

Traders are reporting heavy pressure on the ruble due to several factors, including asset sell-offs in the West driving up demand for dollars, combined with lower oil prices in March hitting export revenues hard. According to analysis from Reuters, the ruble is currently the third worst-performing currency globally this year, trailing only behind the Argentine peso and the Egyptian pound.

However, there’s hope for a rebound. The ruble is expected to strengthen against the dollar in the coming days thanks to a recent uptick in oil prices—especially since Russia stands as the world's second-largest oil exporter, just behind Saudi Arabia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/

Are the Saudis basically subsidizing their biggest competitor's economy?

The Saudis are basically just trying to bail themselves out because that utopian megaproject they dreamed up isn't exactly cheap.

At least we had a monetary expert on this thread providing fresh updates on exchange rates.

Where did they go? Where have they vanished to...?

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ia-2023-04-05/
Russian oil fuels find a back door into Europe through India.

NEW DELHI, April 5 (Reuters) - Record high imports of crude oil from Russia in fiscal 2022-23 helped India's refiners boost exports of diesel and jet fuel to Europe as the continent shunned Russian products, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed.

Cheap Russian crude has fueled massive output and bolstered profits at Indian refineries. This allows them to export refined goods to Europe at highly competitive prices and grab a larger slice of the market.
...

The data indicates that India's imports of Russian crude rose in March for the seventh consecutive month to close out the fiscal year. Russia has now become India's top supplier, overtaking Iraq for the first time.

The EU idiots are essentially funding Russia's war effort while simultaneously padding the pockets of Indians (and the Chinese). On top of that, we just hand the Ukrainians whatever they ask for.

We’ve turned ourselves into a global doormat for anyone who wants to walk all over us. 😵

Must be tough for you.

Noah Diaz said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ia-2023-04-05/
Russian oil fuels find a back door into Europe through India.

NEW DELHI, April 5 (Reuters) - Record high imports of crude oil from Russia in fiscal 2022-23 helped India's refiners boost exports of diesel and jet fuel to Europe as the continent shunned Russian products, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed.

Cheap Russian crude has fueled massive output and bolstered profits at Indian refineries. This allows them to export refined goods to Europe at highly competitive prices and grab a larger slice of the market.
...

The data indicates that India's imports of Russian crude rose in March for the seventh consecutive month to close out the fiscal year. Russia has now become India's top supplier, overtaking Iraq for the first time.

The EU idiots are essentially funding Russia's war effort while simultaneously padding the pockets of Indians (and the Chinese). On top of that, we just hand the Ukrainians whatever they ask for.

We’ve turned ourselves into a global doormat for anyone who wants to walk all over us. 😵

Actually, I see it differently. The Russian deficit and the falling Ruble don't necessarily mean the war is being funded—if anything, it might be the opposite.

Because Russia is selling its oil and gas at such a discount, countries like India aren't just fueling their own growth; they're also turning around and selling extra fuel back to the EU. It’s pure economic expansion for them! I've been saying for ages that China is the real big winner in this conflict.

As for Ukraine, they're getting loans and weapon donations because they're a potential candidate for the EU and NATO. That’s standard procedure! If Belarus were under attack instead, we'd likely be doing the exact same thing—assuming, of course, there wasn't a puppet regime in charge there instead of someone sane.

Look, the EU is a democratic community of European nations, and NATO is a military alliance of democratic states. Their whole purpose is to defend the democratic order from a small-time psychopath.

I think your perspective is a bit skewed, though you're certainly not alone in thinking that way. It reminds me of how millions of people in Mexico once supported Slobodan Maddox, believing that Mexico should extend its reach into places like Canada. Today, we're seeing millions of Russians view Ukraine as part of Russia.

They won't succeed, but it's going to take a lot of time and a lot of blood to prove that they can't. This isn't the first time, and it won't be the last.

Arthur Watson4 said:At least we had a monetary expert on this thread providing fresh updates on exchange rates.

Where did they go? Where have they vanished to...?

Don't sweat it—we've got our "expert for everything" fueled by pure copium over here. That guy is apparently an authority on absolutely anything involving the war in Ukraine, whether it's direct or indirect.

Russia should be considered a country with manageable debt levels, considering their debt-to-GDP ratio was at 17% before the crisis and has actually settled down to 15% now.
For context, the USA is sitting at a debt level of 132%, while Japan is at 260% and Italy is at 130%.
Their foreign exchange reserves are nearly $600 billion.

While it is true that sanctions impacted Russia, causing an economic slowdown of about 2% last year, the IMF is currently projecting positive growth for Russia this year, which stands in stark contrast to the projected contractions in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Russia maintains a trade surplus in its international exchanges, a surplus in its balance of payments, and a relatively low fiscal deficit; from a macroeconomic standpoint, Russia remains a remarkably stable nation today.

The sanctions haven't achieved any of their intended goals, and if anything, they are driving oil-producing nations closer together, including Mexico. BRICS already has its own development bank and is actively pursuing the idea of conducting transactions outside of the Dollar and the Swift system, because after these recent sanctions, it has become clear to everyone that holding assets in dollars or via dollar-denominated accounts isn't always secure, nor is access to the Swift payment system guaranteed.

Relying on Russia's budget deficit as a point of concern won't change much, as it's not a unique issue; for instance, back in 2020, the USA saw a deficit of 14.5% of its GDP, followed by 10.8% the next year against a $24 trillion economy, and we certainly don't see them collapsing because of it.

Whatever, if that's how you see it, just dump your savings into the Russian economy. I'm sure they'll appreciate the capital injection—and hey, you might actually see a return. Win-win.

Adam Peterson said:Russia should be considered a country with manageable debt levels, considering their debt-to-GDP ratio was at 17% before the crisis and has actually settled down to 15% now.
For context, the USA is sitting at a debt level of 132%, while Japan is at 260% and Italy is at 130%.
Their foreign exchange reserves are nearly $600 billion.

While it is true that sanctions impacted Russia, causing an economic slowdown of about 2% last year, the IMF is currently projecting positive growth for Russia this year, which stands in stark contrast to the projected contractions in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Russia maintains a trade surplus in its international exchanges, a surplus in its balance of payments, and a relatively low fiscal deficit; from a macroeconomic standpoint, Russia remains a remarkably stable nation today.

The sanctions haven't achieved any of their intended goals, and if anything, they are driving oil-producing nations closer together, including Mexico. BRICS already has its own development bank and is actively pursuing the idea of conducting transactions outside of the Dollar and the Swift system, because after these recent sanctions, it has become clear to everyone that holding assets in dollars or via dollar-denominated accounts isn't always secure, nor is access to the Swift payment system guaranteed.

Relying on Russia's budget deficit as a point of concern won't change much, as it's not a unique issue; for instance, back in 2020, the USA saw a deficit of 14.5% of its GDP, followed by 10.8% the next year against a $24 trillion economy, and we certainly don't see them collapsing because of it.

You really ought to throw in the Russian "miracle" with its +300% debt too.

Adam Peterson said:Russia should be considered a country with manageable debt levels, considering their debt-to-GDP ratio was at 17% before the crisis and has actually settled down to 15% now.
For context, the USA is sitting at a debt level of 132%, while Japan is at 260% and Italy is at 130%.
Their foreign exchange reserves are nearly $600 billion.

While it is true that sanctions impacted Russia, causing an economic slowdown of about 2% last year, the IMF is currently projecting positive growth for Russia this year, which stands in stark contrast to the projected contractions in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Russia maintains a trade surplus in its international exchanges, a surplus in its balance of payments, and a relatively low fiscal deficit; from a macroeconomic standpoint, Russia remains a remarkably stable nation today.

The sanctions haven't achieved any of their intended goals, and if anything, they are driving oil-producing nations closer together, including Mexico. BRICS already has its own development bank and is actively pursuing the idea of conducting transactions outside of the Dollar and the Swift system, because after these recent sanctions, it has become clear to everyone that holding assets in dollars or via dollar-denominated accounts isn't always secure, nor is access to the Swift payment system guaranteed.

Relying on Russia's budget deficit as a point of concern won't change much, as it's not a unique issue; for instance, back in 2020, the USA saw a deficit of 14.5% of its GDP, followed by 10.8% the next year against a $24 trillion economy, and we certainly don't see them collapsing because of it.

Yeah, the USA basically spent a massive pile of unplanned cash during the pandemic, creating a giant deficit and fueling inflation. That money—that whole deficit—went straight to American citizens via helicopter money... and Big Pharma.

In Russia, the deficit mostly stems from the revenue side, as far as I know, and that’s not something they did voluntarily to help citizens through COVID. They chose to attack Ukraine, and this is just the price they pay on top of the actual cost of the operation. Companies have lost foreign markets, domestic firms are struggling with tech imports, exports are restricted, gas isn't going to Europe, and oil is being sold through various workarounds... all of that hits the revenue side. This isn't money that was handed out to Russian citizens or corporations; it's simply money that has vanished.

hiddeneagle98 said:Yeah, the USA basically spent a massive pile of unplanned cash during the pandemic, creating a giant deficit and fueling inflation. That money—that whole deficit—went straight to American citizens via helicopter money... and Big Pharma.

In Russia, the deficit mostly stems from the revenue side, as far as I know, and that’s not something they did voluntarily to help citizens through COVID. They chose to attack Ukraine, and this is just the price they pay on top of the actual cost of the operation. Companies have lost foreign markets, domestic firms are struggling with tech imports, exports are restricted, gas isn't going to Europe, and oil is being sold through various workarounds... all of that hits the revenue side. This isn't money that was handed out to Russian citizens or corporations; it's simply money that has vanished.

It is a given that Russia has been left short on cash, and there is really no debate there. When you eliminate trade and the flow of capital, the money disappears. While Russia did record a GDP contraction of 2%, they were actually projecting a growth rate of 5% for last year, which represents a massive blow and a significant loss. However, this isn't quite the crushing blow to Russia that the West was hoping for, mainly because the Russian economy has been underestimated when people compare it to something like Spain.
The truth is that Russia remains an export powerhouse because they supply strategically vital goods like food, fertilizers, energy, and metals.

It seems as though Russia and Europe are the only ones truly feeling the impact here, primarily because Europe lacks domestic production of those essential commodities, leaving them incredibly vulnerable. There is a very real possibility that the EU could slide into a recession this year.

It stands to reason that Europe and Russia engage in trade due to geographic proximity and competitive pricing, creating a situation that is mutually beneficial since the demand exists on both sides. So far, Europe's current behavior looks a bit like someone throwing a tantrum and accidentally cutting off their own lifeline.

Once the Russian GDP actually crawls back to where it sat in 2013, then you can start bragging about growth. To hit those "good old days" levels this year, they’d need a massive 29% jump.

And that’s all assuming the most productive part of the population—the guys actually driving the economic recovery—doesn't just keep dying off.

Adam Peterson said:It is a given that Russia has been left short on cash, and there is really no debate there. When you eliminate trade and the flow of capital, the money disappears. While Russia did record a GDP contraction of 2%, they were actually projecting a growth rate of 5% for last year, which represents a massive blow and a significant loss. However, this isn't quite the crushing blow to Russia that the West was hoping for, mainly because the Russian economy has been underestimated when people compare it to something like Spain.
The truth is that Russia remains an export powerhouse because they supply strategically vital goods like food, fertilizers, energy, and metals.

It seems as though Russia and Europe are the only ones truly feeling the impact here, primarily because Europe lacks domestic production of those essential commodities, leaving them incredibly vulnerable. There is a very real possibility that the EU could slide into a recession this year.

It stands to reason that Europe and Russia engage in trade due to geographic proximity and competitive pricing, creating a situation that is mutually beneficial since the demand exists on both sides. So far, Europe's current behavior looks a bit like someone throwing a tantrum and accidentally cutting off their own lifeline.

Look, you take 12% inflation from 2022 plus a 2% GDP drop, and you're looking at a 14% hit. For the average person, that’s a total catastrophe. Even the oligarchs aren't exactly thrilled.
But consider how much GDP goes into those roughly 15,000 vehicles destroyed in Ukraine—not to mention all the newly manufactured ammunition being fired off. A single missile costing anywhere from $1 to $6 million counts toward the GDP the moment it's paid for, yet it's wiped out in a matter of minutes, effectively draining massive amounts of wealth away from the actual productive economy. Etc., etc. Honestly, though, the Americans and NATO likely have a better handle on the real situation than Putin does sitting in his bunker; people are probably too afraid to tell him the truth about how things actually look. I was just watching a report on some factory cranking out 3 million aerial bombs a year—but who on earth is going to use them when they're already short on aircraft and trained pilots?
Just imagine if the US, or it doesn't matter which country, placed an order for 2,000 Patrias and 10,000 Degman tanks for €100 billion. The GDP would skyrocket by 20% annually until everything is delivered, but once those tanks eventually become scrap metal, the budget still has to cover the debt. You could end up seeing healthcare and pensions scrapped and taxes hiked by 300%.