Arming Ukraine

Here’s the breakdown on what American max production looks like for Javelin and TOW missiles throughout 2022:

-6,480 Javelins for the year

-24,000 TOW-2 missiles annually

The real headache here, though—and this is the part that sucks—is the lead time. You’re looking at roughly 18 to 20 months from the moment an order is placed before they even start cranking them out, and then you’ve got another 12 months just to actually finish everything that was ordered. It's a massive lag.

If this drags on, the US is going to have to pivot toward donating TOW missiles instead, which is a whole different ballgame. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians really need to start being more surgical with their Javelins; someone needs to sit them down and explain that these aren't exactly falling from the sky in endless abundance. Basically, stop spraying and praying if you aren't 100% sure you're going to nail the target.

I find it a bit hard to swallow the idea that Ukrainians are burning through Javelins at such an astronomical rate. I’m not one to lean into conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were quietly stockpiling a portion of those supplies for a rainy day—perhaps as leverage in case Western pressure forces them into a peace deal that doesn't sit right with their interests.

If the situation were mine, I’d likely be doing the exact same thing if I had the means.

As for ramping up Javelin production, it’s entirely possible to accelerate the process if we actually make it a priority. The Defense Production Act is a powerful tool when it's used correctly.

slyfox43 said:I find it a bit hard to swallow the idea that Ukrainians are burning through Javelins at such an astronomical rate. I’m not one to lean into conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were quietly stockpiling a portion of those supplies for a rainy day—perhaps as leverage in case Western pressure forces them into a peace deal that doesn't sit right with their interests.

If the situation were mine, I’d likely be doing the exact same thing if I had the means.

As for ramping up Javelin production, it’s entirely possible to accelerate the process if we actually make it a priority. The Defense Production Act is a powerful tool when it's used correctly.

Sure, a factory can flip from one shift to three overnight on paper, but you still need like 3-4 months just to get the workforce trained up and ready to go...

Adam Lee13 said:Sure, a factory can flip from one shift to three overnight on paper, but you still need like 3-4 months just to get the workforce trained up and ready to go...

(Biden was recently saying... ramp up production)

It’s probably all about automating those production lines.
Basically a capital investment thing, plus most of these companies are private anyway.
Americans (specifically the defense industry) are definitely going to cash in on this crisis and war.
Then you've got the Britons and the Swedes too.
Though maybe the biggest winners (as a new player on the global stage) will be the Turks.

The response to Putin is carving out more than 2% for defense spending.

Looks like he might respond by modernizing his nuclear arsenal for the 21st century.
Unless they actually remove him from power—because what he's doing is literally disrupting business and civilization globally.

glosa said:You can clearly see the difference between American tactics and Russian ones here.

While the Russians lean on propaganda to bloat their image and intimidate their enemies, Americans tend to do the exact opposite just to lure them into a trap.

Which war tactic actually works better?

The truth is, both sides adapt based on who they are.

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak,” as Sun Tzu put it.

Amanda Diaz said:The truth is, both sides adapt based on who they are.

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak,” as Sun Tzu put it.

So, which one actually works better when things finally hit the fan? Which strategy keeps you from getting absolutely wrecked???

We really ought to be handing Ukraine everything they need to fuel their war effort without any hesitation whatsoever. Sure, logistics is always going to be a headache, but we shouldn't be treating the quantity or the quality of military hardware as if it's some kind of unsolvable dilemma. They need cruise missiles capable of reaching Moscow and other major cities, and those should be deployed in massive quantities. Once that's done, peace negotiations would likely follow pretty quickly.

Adam Lee13 said:So, which one actually works better when things finally hit the fan? Which strategy keeps you from getting absolutely wrecked???

Are you seriously asking me if it's better to be weak or strong when the chaos starts?

Amanda Jackson5 said:We really ought to be handing Ukraine everything they need to fuel their war effort without any hesitation whatsoever. Sure, logistics is always going to be a headache, but we shouldn't be treating the quantity or the quality of military hardware as if it's some kind of unsolvable dilemma. They need cruise missiles capable of reaching Moscow and other major cities, and those should be deployed in massive quantities. Once that's done, peace negotiations would likely follow pretty quickly.

No way. They need to hold off the next Russian attack and then clear them out. Let the Russians worry about Moscow themselves.

edit: meet The Zuzana-2, The 155 mm Self-Propelled Howitzer that Slovakia is Sending
https://sofrep.com/news/meet-the-zuz...ng-to-ukraine/

If Germany won't step up, someone else will send the weapons.

slyfox43 said:I find it a bit hard to swallow the idea that Ukrainians are burning through Javelins at such an astronomical rate. I’m not one to lean into conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were quietly stockpiling a portion of those supplies for a rainy day—perhaps as leverage in case Western pressure forces them into a peace deal that doesn't sit right with their interests.

If the situation were mine, I’d likely be doing the exact same thing if I had the means.

As for ramping up Javelin production, it’s entirely possible to accelerate the process if we actually make it a priority. The Defense Production Act is a powerful tool when it's used correctly.

Oh, sure—you’ve got a swarm of Russian tanks bearing down on you, and your plan is to save them for tomorrow.🤣
You might not even be around tomorrow; that's not how this works.
You take every shot you can get and burn them all right now.

What else can we actually get over to Ukraine that carries some real weight? I’m thinking things like those old Russian Mi-8 or Mi-17 helicopters sitting in storage, or maybe those mobile Gvozdika howitzers gathering dust in a depot. Even tanks—maybe something like the M-84, which is basically just a derivative of the Soviet T-72.

Rachel Richardson said:Oh, sure—you’ve got a swarm of Russian tanks bearing down on you, and your plan is to save them for tomorrow.🤣
You might not even be around tomorrow; that's not how this works.
You take every shot you can get and burn them all right now.

The idea that they actually deployed 7,000 of them—basically everything in their arsenal—seems a bit far-fetched to me, though I'm obviously not on the ground to verify.

Regardless, the priority should be putting every single resource available to work right now.

slyfox43 said:The idea that they actually deployed 7,000 of them—basically everything in their arsenal—seems a bit far-fetched to me, though I'm obviously not on the ground to verify.

Regardless, the priority should be putting every single resource available to work right now.

https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/statu...68617565593610
The night sky is lighting up.

They're going to need more—way more than this.
Everything they've got should be aimed straight at the invaders.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/stat...67333894664195

The USA is sending over some Stormer systems to help out Ukraine.

Rachel Richardson said:https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/statu...68617565593610
The night sky is lighting up.

They're going to need more—way more than this.
Everything they've got should be aimed straight at the invaders.

That video is years old.

Sure, but Javelins are really more about taking out tanks.
You can take care of armored vehicles and trucks with much lighter anti-armor stuff—stuff that's way more abundant and cheaper, like an RPG-7 or an AT4 and things like that.

ironseal said:That video is years old.

Are you sure about that?

I picked it up somewhere else—browsing through some related threads or maybe just digging into history.🤔

Rachel Richardson said:Are you sure about that?

I picked it up somewhere else—browsing through some related threads or maybe just digging into history.🤔

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status...WBP1QrYWA&s=19

The Italian Parliament is throwing its full weight behind sending more weapon shipments to Ukraine
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...98168232402952

The massive shift toward Western weaponry for Ukraine
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craigho...nevitable/amp/

slyfox43 said:I find it a bit hard to swallow the idea that Ukrainians are burning through Javelins at such an astronomical rate. I’m not one to lean into conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were quietly stockpiling a portion of those supplies for a rainy day—perhaps as leverage in case Western pressure forces them into a peace deal that doesn't sit right with their interests.

If the situation were mine, I’d likely be doing the exact same thing if I had the means.

As for ramping up Javelin production, it’s entirely possible to accelerate the process if we actually make it a priority. The Defense Production Act is a powerful tool when it's used correctly.

I think they just count Javelins (and all other gear) as "used up" the moment they get delivered to a unit, rather than waiting until they're actually fired. Because, honestly, thousands of Javelins being fired would mean hundreds, maybe even thousands, of destroyed tanks, and you'd definitely notice that. Even if they were firing them off wildly like the Chechens, you'd see it on TikTok or something.

It seems like they're trying to avoid the same mess they had before the war when they couldn't arm everyone equally. Right now, a huge chunk of equipment is probably tied up along the Belarusian border and the northeast. There isn't direct fighting there yet, but they still need a strong defense.
So, when they say they've "used up" their supplies, maybe it really just means "we haven't fully equipped everyone we need to yet" or "our reserves aren't quite where they should be."