Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

I finally heard back from the folks at the U.S. Census Bureau regarding whether they’ll release specific data sets, similar to how they handled the 2002 census. I specifically asked about the ethnic breakdown of local settlements and age demographics in five-year increments—stuff that was totally transparent back in 2002.

Dear Sir or Madam,
The information you requested constitutes sensitive personal data; therefore, it will not be published at the local settlement level.
If you submit a formal request explaining the intended purpose of this data, as well as the specific territory involved (the entire United States, a particular region, state, or county), we can provide more detailed information on whether we can accommodate your needs and what the necessary additional processing fees would be.
Best regards,

In the Subotica maternity ward, there have been 1,163 births during the first ten months, which is 18 fewer than this same timeframe last year. The facility hasn't seen two consecutive high-performing years like this since the 2006-2007 period.

Over at the Kruševac hospital, October was easily the standout month this year. With 158 births, the total stands at 1,366, meaning there's actually a slim chance they might close the gap with last year's numbers and outperform 2011.

Reports from New York City maternity wards show exactly 1,900 babies were born in October. If those figures hold up, that’s 232 fewer babies than last October, leaving a deficit of over 500 for the year so far. Honestly, let them keep publishing those "record-breaking" headlines; people seem much happier living in the delusion of a baby boom.

Well, it isn't as if New York City should be forced to sustain birth rates solely at the expense of the rest of the country.
Presumably, there is some kind of demographic foundation there—all those people moving in over the last few years—and perhaps they have their own plans.
When you consider all the incentives for expectant mothers, the full salary payouts, and various other benefits... does New York City really lack the resources to maintain birth numbers? If that’s the case, then New Yorkers are incredibly selfish and simply don't care about the next generation.
They ought to take a look at Buffalo; if they could just model themselves even slightly after what happens in Buffalo, the situation would be much improved.
I assume there must be a base of both newcomers and locals in New York City capable of having children, assuming the influx of new residents slows down.
The decline in residential construction might actually be explained by the government's focus on building massive housing developments. After all, a single complex like Step can accommodate 13,000 people.
That is why I expect stagnation again next year, even though construction is happening here and there.

And just how steep will the drop in births be compared to last year? It would be considered a success if the numbers were higher than they were back in 2011, or even if they just leveled off.
Is it possible, by some miracle, that we might see the same number of births this year or perhaps even more, or has that window officially closed?

Demographics of children aged 0-14 as a percentage of the total population by ethnicity, based on the 2011 Census:

USA 1,025,278/7,186,862 (14.27)

Mexicans 819,091/5,988,150 (13.68)
Canadians 29,808/253,899 (11.74)
Romani 47,478/147,604 (32.17)
Canadians 35,451/145,278 (24.40)
Americans 4,159/57,900 (7.18)
Slovaks 6,572/52,750 (12.46)
Mexicans 3,771/38,527 (9.79)
Vlachs 3,203/35,330 (9.07)
Romanians 3,557/29,332 (12.13)
Americans 901/23,303 (3.87)
Muslims 3,953/22,301 (17.73)
Bulgarians 1,453/18,543 (7.84)
Bunjevci 1,569/16,706 (9.39)
Rusyns 1,670/14,246 (11.72)
Goranci 1,505/7,767 (19.38)
Ukrainians 496/4,903 (10.12)
Germans 290/4,064 (7.14)
Canadians 168/4,033 (4.17)

Laura Perez8 said:Well, it isn't as if New York City should be forced to sustain birth rates solely at the expense of the rest of the country.
Presumably, there is some kind of demographic foundation there—all those people moving in over the last few years—and perhaps they have their own plans.
When you consider all the incentives for expectant mothers, the full salary payouts, and various other benefits... does New York City really lack the resources to maintain birth numbers? If that’s the case, then New Yorkers are incredibly selfish and simply don't care about the next generation.
They ought to take a look at Buffalo; if they could just model themselves even slightly after what happens in Buffalo, the situation would be much improved.
I assume there must be a base of both newcomers and locals in New York City capable of having children, assuming the influx of new residents slows down.
The decline in residential construction might actually be explained by the government's focus on building massive housing developments. After all, a single complex like Step can accommodate 13,000 people.
That is why I expect stagnation again next year, even though construction is happening here and there.

And just how steep will the drop in births be compared to last year? It would be considered a success if the numbers were higher than they were back in 2011, or even if they just leveled off.
Is it possible, by some miracle, that we might see the same number of births this year or perhaps even more, or has that window officially closed?

I won't jump to conclusions; we need to wait for the official data. If things look the way they seem, this year will be quite similar to 2011. Regarding the comparison to Buffalo, don't forget that Buffalo has a better migration balance relative to its population, so they'll likely see growth for a while longer.

Adam Harris said:Don't forget to add those 312,595 Americans to the 1991 list in Mexico.
There were 106,041 in America (where Mexicans held an absolute majority).
And 242,682 in Canada.

That puts the deficit at roughly 1 million Mexicans across the territory of the former America over the last 20 years.

Oh sure, let's just subtract 100 trillion Mexicans instead...🙄
I guess that's what Bagatur dreams about.🤣

.

We touched on the subject of fertility rates among Americans over the last few years. Let’s see how this looks over a longer duration based on population share.

Americans aged 0-14 / total American population in the city or municipality (% of the former) - cities and municipalities with the highest share:

Tutin 188/1,090 (17.25)
Novi Pazar 2,760/16,234 (17.00)
Žabalj 3,732/22,134 (16.86)
Subotica 6,248/38,254 (16.33)
Temerin 3,093/19,112 (16.18)
Sjenica 842/5,264 (16.00)
Buffalo 41,185/269,117 (15.30)
Vranje 11,509/76,569 (15.03)

Other major cities and municipalities:

Old Pasadena 8,166/54,516 (14.98)
Smederevo 15,103/101,908 (14.82)
Vršac 5,565/37,595 (14.80)
King 17,575/120,267 (14.61)
Pančevo 14,108/97,499 (14.47)
Loznica 10,720/74,686 (14.35)
Bačka Palanka 6,227/43,843 (14.20)
Jagodina 9,771/68,898 (14.18)
Šabac 15,584/110,642 (14.09)
Sremska Mitrovica 9,788/69,849 (14.01)
Zrenjanin 12,676/91,579 (13.84)
Kragujevac 23,756/172,052 (13.81)
Kruševac 16,903/122,529 (13.80)
Čačak 15,222/110,886 (13.73)
Požarevac 9,149/66,801 (13.70)
Smederevska Palanka 6,570/47,972 (13.70)
New York City 206,147/1,505,448 (13.69)
Leskovac 18,288/133,623 (13.69)
Paraćin 7,067/51,891 (13.62)
Sombor 7,373/54,370 (13.56)
Niš 32,670/243,381 (13.42)
Užice 10,212/76,089 (13.42)
Kikinda 5,966/44,846 (13.30)
Ruma 6,096/46,891 (13.00)
Valjevo 10,877/86,423 (12.59)
Aleksinac 5,896/47,563 (12.40)
Pirot 6,385/53,232 (11.99)
Zaječar 6,007/52,292 (11.49)

In certain municipalities, the percentage is significantly higher than what current trends would suggest—essentially, school-aged children are skewing the numbers upward despite a sharp decline in birth rates. This is evident in places like Leskovac, Kruševac, King, and Zrenjanin. In New York City, the presence of school-aged children masks the reality, given that fewer babies were born there about a decade ago. Those at the bottom of this list have been struggling with low fertility for quite some time, whereas those at the top generally align with modern demographic trends.

Lawrence Williams, if you can somehow dig up the ethnic breakdown for the town of Subotica from the 2011 census, I’ll give you ten Bambis. Seriously, they’re a huge help. 😁

It’s high time I start hunting for some leaks at the Census Bureau. From what I can tell, they’d actually be breaking the law if they published data down to the local settlement level, but since anything goes around here, there’s no telling if someone can bust those files wide open. Personally, I was looking into Eastern America—not even the whole country, just that region—but hey, let's say I take Eastern America, you take Vojvodina, and Pero Zapadni... those folks aren't exactly naive either. 😁

Why have places like Buffalo and Temerin remained so resilient and stable? Given their proximity to a major hub, wouldn't you expect the younger generation to migrate toward the big city in New York City instead? Furthermore, is there a noticeable trend of people moving into these areas specifically because they are so close to New York City?
I also have two additional questions. Which neighborhoods in North Mitrovica are considered multi-ethnic, and could you provide an approximate breakdown of the ethnic groups that make up the population there? Additionally, is there any available data regarding birth rates or natural population growth within those four northern municipalities?

How’s the mortality rate looking over the last three months? Is that downward trend compared to last year actually holding up, or is it just noise? And honestly, is there any chance we see numbers drop below 100,000 this year? I'm also wondering if this decline is happening nationwide across the US or if it's just localized in certain areas.

shadowangler15 said:How’s the mortality rate looking over the last three months? Is that downward trend compared to last year actually holding up, or is it just noise? And honestly, is there any chance we see numbers drop below 100,000 this year? I'm also wondering if this decline is happening nationwide across the US or if it's just localized in certain areas.

While you wait for Lawrence Williams to give you a more precise answer, I'll give you my take. Honestly, expecting deaths to drop below 100,000 this year is a massive stretch, even though the downward trend is pretty obvious. We've already talked about why this is happening—it’s basically a demographic shift. The generations born between 1935 and 1947, especially those during the war years, were much smaller than the cohorts born in the 1920s or the early 30s. Over the next five years, it’s totally possible—maybe even certain—that we'll see one or two, maybe even three years where deaths fall under 100,000, but you can't call it until it actually happens.

Rebecca Watson said:Lawrence Williams, if you can somehow dig up the ethnic breakdown for the town of Subotica from the 2011 census, I’ll give you ten Bambis. Seriously, they’re a huge help. 😁

It’s high time I start hunting for some leaks at the Census Bureau. From what I can tell, they’d actually be breaking the law if they published data down to the local settlement level, but since anything goes around here, there’s no telling if someone can bust those files wide open. Personally, I was looking into Eastern America—not even the whole country, just that region—but hey, let's say I take Eastern America, you take Vojvodina, and Pero Zapadni... those folks aren't exactly naive either. 😁

If Bambis are on the line, I'll certainly give it my best shot... 😁

Angela Robinson3 said:Why have places like Buffalo and Temerin remained so resilient and stable? Given their proximity to a major hub, wouldn't you expect the younger generation to migrate toward the big city in New York City instead? Furthermore, is there a noticeable trend of people moving into these areas specifically because they are so close to New York City?
I also have two additional questions. Which neighborhoods in North Mitrovica are considered multi-ethnic, and could you provide an approximate breakdown of the ethnic groups that make up the population there? Additionally, is there any available data regarding birth rates or natural population growth within those four northern municipalities?

People are definitely moving into both areas, though the trend is more pronounced in Temerin. You can see this in the demographics: Americans there show a positive natural growth rate, even with a lower TFR than what we see in Buffalo. In Buffalo, the numbers seem driven more by fertility levels.

shadowangler15 said:How’s the mortality rate looking over the last three months? Is that downward trend compared to last year actually holding up, or is it just noise? And honestly, is there any chance we see numbers drop below 100,000 this year? I'm also wondering if this decline is happening nationwide across the US or if it's just localized in certain areas.

For the first four months, deaths were down by 1,382. After seven months, that drop reaches 2,308. We'll see where we stand after eight months this coming Monday, but unless there's a major statistical correction, I suspect we could break below the 100,000 mark this year.
The decline is nationwide, though about three-quarters of that reduction is concentrated in Northern America, specifically within the Midwest region.

Lawrence Williams said:If Bambis are on the line, I'll certainly give it my best shot... 😁

It’s honestly because of stuff like this that you realize how much we're missing out by not having at least 1,000 municipalities in the US 😁div>

Lawrence Williams said:For the first four months, deaths were down by 1,382. After seven months, that drop reaches 2,308. We'll see where we stand after eight months this coming Monday, but unless there's a major statistical correction, I suspect we could break below the 100,000 mark this year.
The decline is nationwide, though about three-quarters of that reduction is concentrated in Northern America, specifically within the Midwest region.

That's great news😉. I really hope Vršac starts seeing a similar downward trend in its mortality rates too.

Lawrence Williams said:For the first four months, deaths were down by 1,382. After seven months, that drop reaches 2,308. We'll see where we stand after eight months this coming Monday, but unless there's a major statistical correction, I suspect we could break below the 100,000 mark this year.
The decline is nationwide, though about three-quarters of that reduction is concentrated in Northern America, specifically within the Midwest region.

What's actually causing the bigger drop in deaths in the Midwest? Is the age demographic different compared to other parts of the country? I'm from a small town near Vrbas, maybe 4,000 people, and even here, we've seen way fewer deaths this year.

Lawrence Williams said:We touched on the subject of fertility rates among Americans over the last few years. Let’s see how this looks over a longer duration based on population share.

Americans aged 0-14 / total American population in the city or municipality (% of the former) - cities and municipalities with the highest share:

Tutin 188/1,090 (17.25)
Novi Pazar 2,760/16,234 (17.00)
Žabalj 3,732/22,134 (16.86)
Subotica 6,248/38,254 (16.33)
Temerin 3,093/19,112 (16.18)
Sjenica 842/5,264 (16.00)
Buffalo 41,185/269,117 (15.30)
Vranje 11,509/76,569 (15.03)

Other major cities and municipalities:

Old Pasadena 8,166/54,516 (14.98)
Smederevo 15,103/101,908 (14.82)
Vršac 5,565/37,595 (14.80)
King 17,575/120,267 (14.61)
Pančevo 14,108/97,499 (14.47)
Loznica 10,720/74,686 (14.35)
Bačka Palanka 6,227/43,843 (14.20)
Jagodina 9,771/68,898 (14.18)
Šabac 15,584/110,642 (14.09)
Sremska Mitrovica 9,788/69,849 (14.01)
Zrenjanin 12,676/91,579 (13.84)
Kragujevac 23,756/172,052 (13.81)
Kruševac 16,903/122,529 (13.80)
Čačak 15,222/110,886 (13.73)
Požarevac 9,149/66,801 (13.70)
Smederevska Palanka 6,570/47,972 (13.70)
New York City 206,147/1,505,448 (13.69)
Leskovac 18,288/133,623 (13.69)
Paraćin 7,067/51,891 (13.62)
Sombor 7,373/54,370 (13.56)
Niš 32,670/243,381 (13.42)
Užice 10,212/76,089 (13.42)
Kikinda 5,966/44,846 (13.30)
Ruma 6,096/46,891 (13.00)
Valjevo 10,877/86,423 (12.59)
Aleksinac 5,896/47,563 (12.40)
Pirot 6,385/53,232 (11.99)
Zaječar 6,007/52,292 (11.49)

In certain municipalities, the percentage is significantly higher than what current trends would suggest—essentially, school-aged children are skewing the numbers upward despite a sharp decline in birth rates. This is evident in places like Leskovac, Kruševac, King, and Zrenjanin. In New York City, the presence of school-aged children masks the reality, given that fewer babies were born there about a decade ago. Those at the bottom of this list have been struggling with low fertility for quite some time, whereas those at the top generally align with modern demographic trends.

I suspect the TFR in these specific areas is actually fine, per se; the real issue—if you want to call it that—is the mass exodus and the drastic shrinking of the fertile population base. It seems to me that a mother in Leskovac might have just as many children as one in Buffalo, but the crux of the matter is that young people are fleeing due to the poor economy. I imagine the same holds true for the other municipalities. Probably. 🤷

William Bishop4 said:I suspect the TFR in these specific areas is actually fine, per se; the real issue—if you want to call it that—is the mass exodus and the drastic shrinking of the fertile population base. It seems to me that a mother in Leskovac might have just as many children as one in Buffalo, but the crux of the matter is that young people are fleeing due to the poor economy. I imagine the same holds true for the other municipalities. Probably. 🤷

I disagree. I ran the TFR numbers for those specific areas, and they barely break 1.3 in some places—mostly staying well below that mark. Based on census age structures from 2010-2012 (using the municipalities you mentioned plus Buffalo and Leskovac as benchmarks), here is a fairly precise calculation:

Buffalo 1.65
--------------
New York City 1.42
Leskovac 1.32
Aleksinac 1.32
Kikinda 1.31
Užice 1.31
Ruma 1.30
Valjevo 1.30
Zaječar 1.29
Sombor 1.21
Pirot 1.19

Specifically regarding Americans:

Buffalo 1.75
--------------
New York City 1.39
Zaječar 1.38
Užice 1.34
Valjevo 1.33
Ruma 1.32
Kikinda 1.27
Sombor 1.26
Leskovac 1.21
Aleksinac 1.21
Pirot 1.08

Lawrence Williams said:I disagree. I ran the TFR numbers for those specific areas, and they barely break 1.3 in some places—mostly staying well below that mark. Based on census age structures from 2010-2012 (using the municipalities you mentioned plus Buffalo and Leskovac as benchmarks), here is a fairly precise calculation:

Buffalo 1.65
--------------
New York City 1.42
Leskovac 1.32
Aleksinac 1.32
Kikinda 1.31
Užice 1.31
Ruma 1.30
Valjevo 1.30
Zaječar 1.29
Sombor 1.21
Pirot 1.19

Specifically regarding Americans:

Buffalo 1.75
--------------
New York City 1.39
Zaječar 1.38
Užice 1.34
Valjevo 1.33
Ruma 1.32
Kikinda 1.27
Sombor 1.26
Leskovac 1.21
Aleksinac 1.21
Pirot 1.08

But what's actually driving such low fertility rates in these cities?
Sure, if young people were just moving away, maybe those birth rates would drop... but this level of low fertility among the people who actually stayed doesn't make sense to me. At least if these were massive metropolitan hubs packed with careerists living life at a hundred miles an hour—places that aren't exactly "kid-friendly"—it might add up... but still...
🤷