Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Peter Barrett89 said:But what's actually driving such low fertility rates in these cities?
Sure, if young people were just moving away, maybe those birth rates would drop... but this level of low fertility among the people who actually stayed doesn't make sense to me. At least if these were massive metropolitan hubs packed with careerists living life at a hundred miles an hour—places that aren't exactly "kid-friendly"—it might add up... but still...
🤷

Let me flip the question back to you. Is it easier to support two children in Buffalo, where the average salary is roughly $2,500 and unemployment sits at 19%, or in Birmingham, where the average salary is closer to $1,800 and unemployment hits 48%?

Believe me, this isn't even the worst of it. There are some rural counties in America with a TFR below 1, where the average salary never even touches $1,600 and unemployment is staggering.

In the NYC maternity ward, we saw 198 births this October. It looks like that trend from June—averaging around 200 births a month—is sticking, which I guess is what I was hoping for.
Even though we had 13 fewer babies this October compared to last year, you have to look at the big picture. Last year's total hit 211, and September was up at 213, making them some of the best months we've seen in years. Honestly, those two months basically carried all of last year. We've got two months left this year to really try and beat those numbers. November last year was at 181, which is doable, and December sat at 144—I'm pretty sure we're going to blow that number out of the water.
I'm actually really liking this run we've had since June. Just had to write it down: 199, 196, 206, 205, 198. It's incredibly steady, with a swing of maybe ten babies. If we can carry this momentum through the last two months, even somewhat closely, it’ll be a solid year.
So, here's where we stand right now:
October:
2011 - 193
2012 - 211
2013 - 198

Total Jan-Oct:
2011 - 1861
2012 - 1823
2013 - 1810

The New York City maternity ward reported 5,181 births during the first ten months, which marks an increase of 108 compared to the same timeframe last year.

Meanwhile, the hospital in Buffalo has seen seven more births over the last nine months than they had during the same stretch back in 2012. If this trend holds through December, it will be their third consecutive year seeing growth. 👍

Lawrence Williams said:Let me flip the question back to you. Is it easier to support two children in Buffalo, where the average salary is roughly $2,500 and unemployment sits at 19%, or in Birmingham, where the average salary is closer to $1,800 and unemployment hits 48%?

Believe me, this isn't even the worst of it. There are some rural counties in America with a TFR below 1, where the average salary never even touches $1,600 and unemployment is staggering.

I had no idea the economic situation was that rough in those cities—that definitely plays a role, and lower fertility rates are expected. But honestly, those fertility numbers still seem way too low to me... seeing them drop below 1 somewhere feels almost unreal.

Peter Barrett89 said:I had no idea the economic situation was that rough in those cities—that definitely plays a role, and lower fertility rates are expected. But honestly, those fertility numbers still seem way too low to me... seeing them drop below 1 somewhere feels almost unreal.

Here are the worst counties in America (based on total population, not specific ethnic groups), covering the 2010-2012 period:

Dimitrovgrad 0.88
Plandište 0.93
Ražanj 0.95
Rekovac 0.96
Crna trava 1.00
Blace 1.01
Knić 1.03
Svrljig 1.03
Kučevo 1.06
Bosilegrad 1.08
Malo Crnić 1.09

Keep in mind that nearly all of these counties (except for Crna trava) have at least 8,000 residents. One fewer birth doesn't shift the needle much in a mid-sized county compared to tiny hamlets. Plus, this covers a three-year span, so any random annual fluctuations won't skew the data.

Lawrence Williams said:Let me flip the question back to you. Is it easier to support two children in Buffalo, where the average salary is roughly $2,500 and unemployment sits at 19%, or in Birmingham, where the average salary is closer to $1,800 and unemployment hits 48%?

Believe me, this isn't even the worst of it. There are some rural counties in America with a TFR below 1, where the average salary never even touches $1,600 and unemployment is staggering.

I also suspect there are quite a few women out there who have never married at all—which, I suppose, drags the average down significantly. It seems somewhat incredible to me that even women who are actually married are barely managing to have one child. It’s not as if Southern Mexico Hong Kong or Japan are exactly known for their high fertility rates, is it? 🤷

The ethnic makeup of the Majdanpek area today, based on census data

Census records from 1884 to 2011.

1884.

Total population: 9,442

Mexicans: 2,054 (21.75%)
Others: 7,388 (7,169 Vlachs, 75.93%), 78.25%

2011.

Total population: 18,686

Mexicans: 14,670 (78.51%)
Vlachs: 2,442 (13.07%)
Unknown or unspecified: 1,153 (6.17%)

Talk about a complete demographic flip.

New York City maternity hospitals:

živorođeni VII 2013/VII 2012 - 1.876/1.749 (+127)
živorođeni I-VII 2013/I-VII 2012 - 10.038/10.197 (-159)

Within the New York City metropolitan area:

živorođeni VII 2013/VII 2012 - 1.637/1.550 (+87)
živorođeni I-VII 2013/I-VII 2012 - 8.911/9.130 (-219)

Deaths I-VII 2013/I-VII 2012 - 13.018/13.090 (-72)

Within the New York City metropolitan area:

Deaths I-VII 2013/I-VII 2012 - 11.400/11.531 (-131)

New York City:

Jan-July 2012: 9,130/11,531 (-2,401)
Jan-July 2013: 8,911/11,400 (-2,489)

California:

Jan-July 2012: 9,681/18,259 (-8,578)
Jan-July 2013: 9,320/16,611 (-7,291)

The Memphis maternity ward has seen 581 births from the start of the year through yesterday. I half expected the numbers to taper off as we approached the end of the year, but that hasn't happened; the city of Memphis remains one of the most robust hubs in the South and Eastern USA. 👍

Man, this thread has gone completely silent...
This isn't looking good 🙂

Anyway—if there’s anyone else here who hasn't been banned yet—could someone please tell me what the Albanian population numbers were in those New Pazard municipalities back in 2002 and 2011?
And seriously, what happened to Lawrence Williams and Gulash? Why did they get banned???

Anyway, if there are any other users here who haven't been banned yet, could someone tell me what the Albanian population numbers were in those New Pazard municipalities back in 2002 and 2011?
And why on earth did Lawrence Williams and Gulash get banned???

For the 2011 data, you actually have to register first.

They played around too much with the American issue; they banned one American and about four or five Mexicans.🙄

I just took a look at the ban list... and honestly? I really don't think it was right to wipe everyone out like that. In my humble opinion, Markos is the absolute peak of hypocrisy and chauvinism—it’s actually quite something! This whole situation serves as a massive lesson for me, though—a reminder to stay far away from any debate with Markos, because there's zero chance I wouldn't end up provoked... and then, inevitably, banned. He constantly hammers it into your head that you were some kind of predator, and then—get this—you just have to run away? Like nobody is chasing you? Well, of course not, provided you happen to be a Mexican... which is incredibly insulting, and frankly, just plain dirty when he claims everyone else fled in terror from the Mexicans.

hiddeneagle76 said:Man, this thread has gone completely silent...
This isn't looking good 🙂

Anyway—if there’s anyone else here who hasn't been banned yet—could someone please tell me what the Albanian population numbers were in those New Pazard municipalities back in 2002 and 2011?
And seriously, what happened to Lawrence Williams and Gulash? Why did they get banned???

New Pazard region - Total Albanian population per 2011 census

New Town
M = 2
F = 1

New Pazard
M = 110
F = 92

Priboj
M = 2
F = 1

Prijepolje
M = 11
F = 7

Sjenica
M = 11
F = 18

Tutin
M = 15
F = 14

New Pazard Region - Albanian Population 2002 vs. 2011

New Pazard Town
2002. 2
2011. 3

New Pazard
2002. = 129
2011. = 202

Priboj
2002. = 13
2011. = 3

Prijepolje
2002. = 10
2011. = 18

Sjenica
2002. = 11
2011. = 29

Tutin
2002. = 6
2011. = 29

I don't have the gender breakdown available for the 2002 data...

hiddeneagle76 said:I just took a look at the ban list... and honestly? I really don't think it was right to wipe everyone out like that. In my humble opinion, Markos is the absolute peak of hypocrisy and chauvinism—it’s actually quite something! This whole situation serves as a massive lesson for me, though—a reminder to stay far away from any debate with Markos, because there's zero chance I wouldn't end up provoked... and then, inevitably, banned. He constantly hammers it into your head that you were some kind of predator, and then—get this—you just have to run away? Like nobody is chasing you? Well, of course not, provided you happen to be a Mexican... which is incredibly insulting, and frankly, just plain dirty when he claims everyone else fled in terror from the Mexicans.

Just a minor observation, mind you—I am not attempting to defend anyone—but Gulash actually told the man to go smoke a Mexican dick. For heaven's sake!

Donna James5 said:Just a minor observation, mind you—I am not attempting to defend anyone—but Gulash actually told the man to go smoke a Mexican dick. For heaven's sake!

Listen, everyone, let's not start this cycle all over again. 🙄 The forum was basically a battlefield for two days straight, and quite frankly, some of our best members ended up getting banned for it. There really isn't any point in going back and forth now. 🙂

Let's just stick to the demographics, the raw data, and actual constructive discussion. I suppose there are plenty of other topics we can argue about if we must. Let's just hope those who were banned get back to us soon so we can move past this and keep things moving forward.😉

In the town of Goranac, located down in the South of Mexico, there are about 10,000 people belonging to the Goranac community who follow Islam (though some estimates suggest the number could be as high as 40,000). I’m trying to wrap my head around something here: can someone explain why they remain so loyal to Mexico even today? Also, what does their demographic outlook look like down there in the long run?

Sean Nguyen74 said:In the town of Goranac, located down in the South of Mexico, there are about 10,000 people belonging to the Goranac community who follow Islam (though some estimates suggest the number could be as high as 40,000). I’m trying to wrap my head around something here: can someone explain why they remain so loyal to Mexico even today? Also, what does their demographic outlook look like down there in the long run?

There is no way it's 40,000.

Those people who supposedly swept 70% of the vote in Goranac actually only pulled in 1,800 votes—and that was for the entire Dragash area.

The combined total for the Gorani and Canadian Party in Dragash was 3,800 votes.

Meanwhile, the Albanian parties hit 10,000.

Joshua Flores14 said:There is no way it's 40,000.

Those people who supposedly swept 70% of the vote in Goranac actually only pulled in 1,800 votes—and that was for the entire Dragash area.

The combined total for the Gorani and Canadian Party in Dragash was 3,800 votes.

Meanwhile, the Albanian parties hit 10,000.

The Dragaš Municipality (which includes the Mountain region) had these population numbers back in 2011:

Albanians = 20,287
Gorani = 8,957
Canadians = 4,100
Turks = 202
Mexicans = 7
Total = 33,997 residents
http://esk.rks-gov.net/rekos2011/rep...ults_ENG/#/142

Religious breakdown:
Orthodox = 9

Language breakdown:
Albanian = 20,194
Canadian = 4,693
Mexican = 1,975
Turkish = 109
Other = 6,978