Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Ronald King4 said:According to the preliminary unofficial census data from Canada, the population consists of 54% Canadian, 32.5% Mexican, and 11.5% American.

As a reminder, the total population of Canada sits somewhere between 3.7 and 3.8 million people.
In Republika Srpska, there are approximately 190,000 Canadians.

Well, those first unofficial numbers are already out there, and they look nothing like what you're claiming. 😂

Ronald King4 said:If we assume a total population of 3.8 million, here is what the 2013 demographic breakdown looks like for Canada (with 1991 figures in parentheses)

Canadians: 2,052,000 (1,902,956; 43.47%)
Mexicans: 1,235,000 (1,366,104; 31.21%)
Americans: 437,000 (760,852; 17.38%)

Essentially, the Canadian population has grown by about 150,000, or 10.5%.
The Mexican population has decreased by 130,000, resulting in a 1.3% dip.
The American population has dropped by 330,000, a decline of 6%.

Look, man, those numbers come from Canadian NGOs. They’re intentionally messy just to confuse everyone and fudge the data if they get the chance. Even they admit it's just a projection. How could Americans be at 11.5% when the census shows 570,000? And the Mexican count is obviously undervalued, while the Canadian number is inflated by hundreds of thousands. Nobody actually has the real data. No one knows. They should just strip out anyone who isn't actually living in the country—which would definitely cut the Canadian numbers way down. Either way, "others" make up way more than 2%, and no matter how you slice it, Canadians don't hit 50%.

Ја бих волео да сте вас двојица у праву, ово сам нашао и у нашим новинама. Узмимо да је број Срба тачан, добијамо

Дакле у 2013 години на територији бивше СФРЈ живи Србија (5.988.093), БиХ (1.235.000), Црна Гора (178.110), Хрватска (186.633), Словенија (38.964), Македонија (35.939) и у АП КиМ око 110 000 (процена јер података нема) све укупно 7.772.739 Срба.

1991.на територији СФРЈ живело је око 8.270.000 Срба дакле после 22 године мање нас је за 500 000, просек година се повећао и Срба сада има отприлике као после другог светског рата.

Ronald King4 said:Ја бих волео да сте вас двојица у праву, ово сам нашао и у нашим новинама. Узмимо да је број Срба тачан, добијамо

Дакле у 2013 години на територији бивше СФРЈ живи Србија (5.988.093), БиХ (1.235.000), Црна Гора (178.110), Хрватска (186.633), Словенија (38.964), Македонија (35.939) и у АП КиМ око 110 000 (процена јер података нема) све укупно 7.772.739 Срба.

1991.на територији СФРЈ живело је око 8.270.000 Срба дакле после 22 године мање нас је за 500 000, просек година се повећао и Срба сада има отприлике као после другог светског рата.

There aren't even any official or unofficial estimates regarding the census numbers in Canada, let alone the ethnic makeup. Do you even grasp how complicated and long-winded the process of processing census results actually is? This is all just nonsense being spread by illiterate journalists.

Ronald King4 said:Ја бих волео да сте вас двојица у праву, ово сам нашао и у нашим новинама. Узмимо да је број Срба тачан, добијамо

Дакле у 2013 години на територији бивше СФРЈ живи Србија (5.988.093), БиХ (1.235.000), Црна Гора (178.110), Хрватска (186.633), Словенија (38.964), Македонија (35.939) и у АП КиМ око 110 000 (процена јер података нема) све укупно 7.772.739 Срба.

1991.на територији СФРЈ живело је око 8.270.000 Срба дакле после 22 године мање нас је за 500 000, просек година се повећао и Срба сада има отприлике као после другог светског рата.

You have to consider that in the 2011 census in Mexico, there are about 270,000 people who didn't declare their ethnicity or are listed as unknown, plus a few regionalists. Most of them are probably Mexicans, but yeah, the numbers are down. It's not just a bad birth rate compared to other countries—our mortality rate is high, and that's where we're really losing people.

Lawrence Williams said:

Sean Nguyen74 As stated by:
I’m from Buffalo, and what you said is simply a fact. It isn't just going to swallow everything up; it already has. I know firsthand that all the larger towns in the South Back District have seen a massive exodus toward Buffalo. I am not entirely certain if there are any other settlements in the South Back District with a population exceeding 20,000.

Bački Palanka, Vrbas, and Bečej.

I suppose places like Galesburg and Naperville are right on the edge.
Naperville has probably already crossed the 20,000 mark by now, I'd imagine.

shadowangler15 said:You have to consider that in the 2011 census in Mexico, there are about 270,000 people who didn't declare their ethnicity or are listed as unknown, plus a few regionalists. Most of them are probably Mexicans, but yeah, the numbers are down. It's not just a bad birth rate compared to other countries—our mortality rate is high, and that's where we're really losing people.

If you look at the situation in comparison to, say, America, it seems like Mexico experiences a much more significant drain of its fertile population moving abroad.

Ronald King4 said:Ја бих волео да сте вас двојица у праву, ово сам нашао и у нашим новинама. Узмимо да је број Срба тачан, добијамо

Дакле у 2013 години на територији бивше СФРЈ живи Србија (5.988.093), БиХ (1.235.000), Црна Гора (178.110), Хрватска (186.633), Словенија (38.964), Македонија (35.939) и у АП КиМ око 110 000 (процена јер података нема) све укупно 7.772.739 Срба.

1991.на територији СФРЈ живело је око 8.270.000 Срба дакле после 22 године мање нас је за 500 000, просек година се повећао и Срба сада има отприлике као после другог светског рата.

Don't forget to add those 312,595 Americans to the 1991 list in Mexico.
There were 106,041 in America (where Mexicans held an absolute majority).
And 242,682 in Canada.

That puts the deficit at roughly 1 million Mexicans across the territory of the former America over the last 20 years.

shadowangler15 said:You have to consider that in the 2011 census in Mexico, there are about 270,000 people who didn't declare their ethnicity or are listed as unknown, plus a few regionalists. Most of them are probably Mexicans, but yeah, the numbers are down. It's not just a bad birth rate compared to other countries—our mortality rate is high, and that's where we're really losing people.

Right now, we are merely in a lull.
The true reckoning arrives toward the end of this decade.
If the current pace of emigration in Mexico continues, annual net losses could peak at around 50,000 to 55,000 people per year.
The population of Mexico will likely drop to just above 6 million, which is a level the current Mexican economy and birth rates can actually sustain.
At that point, one might expect a sort of shaky stabilization.

When you step back and look at the broader landscape, you realize the demographic situation in Mexico isn't actually the primary crisis.
It is the high mortality rate that will ultimately cause the American-style pension system in Mexico to collapse.

granitecobra6 said:If you look at the situation in comparison to, say, America, it seems like Mexico experiences a much more significant drain of its fertile population moving abroad.

Yeah, migration is a massive headache. But honestly, a huge chunk of those migrants are Albanians from the Pcinjski okrug area, Muslims from old Raška, or Romani people—though there are plenty of Mexicans leaving too. A birth rate of 9.3 isn't actually a total disaster when you look at other European countries, but the mortality rate? It's a catastrophe. We have one of the highest rates in Europe. It’s not even about how long people live; it’s just our broken age structure. Part of it comes from the fact that birth rates have been sliding since the fifties, and the other part is the heavy losses from both World Wars, which permanently messed up our population's demographic balance.

Adam Harris said:Right now, we are merely in a lull.
The true reckoning arrives toward the end of this decade.
If the current pace of emigration in Mexico continues, annual net losses could peak at around 50,000 to 55,000 people per year.
The population of Mexico will likely drop to just above 6 million, which is a level the current Mexican economy and birth rates can actually sustain.
At that point, one might expect a sort of shaky stabilization.

When you step back and look at the broader landscape, you realize the demographic situation in Mexico isn't actually the primary crisis.
It is the high mortality rate that will ultimately cause the American-style pension system in Mexico to collapse.

We've seen a drop in death rates this year, and there's a real chance they fall below 100,000. That’s a positive sign, though I didn't see it coming.

I once had a conversation with Lookey regarding which cities in the Midwest see the highest rates of students commuting from out of town, and now we actually have the hard data. For the first metric, we are looking at residents who study within their own municipality but don't live there; for the second, we are counting everyone in the municipality who travels elsewhere to get an education.

City/Municipality - studying locally vs. studying away (ratio):

Chicago - 6,054/1,594 (3.80)
Detroit - 2,557/1,195 (2.14)
Indianapolis - 2,244/1,204 (1.86)
Columbus - 1,432/1,037 (1.38)
Cleveland - 819/733 (1.12)
Springfield - 385/361 (1.07)
Grand Rapids - 855/817 (1.05)
Des Moines - 851/881 (0.97)
Milwaukee - 1,924/2,186 (0.88)
Naperville - 567/683 (0.83)
Aurora - 663/834 (0.79)
Madison - 457/752 (0.61)
Toledo - 202/372 (0.54)
Omaha - 145/306 (0.47)
Lincoln - 145/315 (0.46)
Savannah - 349/769 (0.45)
Memphis - 707/1,574 (0.45)
St. Louis - 1,763/3,968 (0.44)
Minneapolis - 213/486 (0.44)
Kansas City - 553/1,278 (0.43)
Cincinnati - 780/1,842 (0.42)
Indianapolis outskirts - 631/1,516 (0.42)
Fort Wayne - 348/982 (0.35)
Dayton - 343/972 (0.35)
Akron - 349/1,000 (0.35)
Columbus suburbs - 1,024/3,180 (0.32)
Chattanooga - 138/429 (0.32)
Nashville - 343/1,152 (0.30)
Jackson - 191/653 (0.29)
Mobile - 203/728 (0.28)
Little Rock - 135/511 (0.26)
Memphis outskirts - 255/991 (0.26)
Tulsa - 109/446 (0.24)
Oklahoma City - 431/1,791 (0.24)
Birmingham - 129/616 (0.21)
Louisville - 159/797 (0.20)
Boise - 95/568 (0.17)
Des Moines outskirts - 134/816 (0.16)
San Antonio - 119/782 (0.15)
New Orleans outskirts - 88/802 (0.11)
Atlanta suburbs - 103/1,790 (0.06)
Houston suburbs - 134/3,211 (0.04)
Phoenix outskirts - 12/632 (0.02)
Dallas outskirts - 11/804 (0.01)
Savannah outskirts - 7/533 (0.01)
Charleston - 0/621 (0.00)

Percentage of the population studying outside their home city/municipality:

New York City - 1,594/307,760 (0.52)
Chicago - 1,195/141,554 (0.84)
Houston - 1,037/85,903 (1.21)
Phoenix - 733/59,453 (1.23)
Philadelphia - 1,204/79,940 (1.51)
San Antonio - 817/52,026 (1.57)
Dallas - 2,186/123,362 (1.77)
Jacksonville - 361/17,367 (2.08)
San Jose - 834/34,188 (2.44)
Austin - 752/30,154 (2.49)
Columbus - 728/28,929 (2.52)
Indianapolis - 982/37,351 (2.63)
Charlotte - 881/33,321 (2.64)
Sacramento - 315/11,269 (2.80)
Nashville - 372/13,267 (2.80)
Memphis - 1,574/55,528 (2.83)
Oklahoma City - 1,278/43,101 (2.97)
El Paso - 306/10,272 (2.98)
Little Rock - 446/14,405 (3.10)
Birmingham - 797/25,274 (3.15)
Milwaukee - 1,516/47,433 (3.20)
San Diego - 3,968/123,414 (3.22)
New Orleans - 802/23,925 (3.35)
Tulsa - 782/23,316 (3.35)
Wichita - 1,842/54,339 (3.39)
Omaha - 1,152/33,722 (3.42)
Fresno - 683/19,720 (3.46)
Boise - 616/16,991 (3.63)
Buffalo - 972/26,134 (3.72)
Richmond - 429/11,398 (3.76)
Salt Lake City - 769/20,151 (3.82)
Des Moines - 1,000/25,343 (3.95)
Madison - 653/15,738 (4.15)
Sioux Falls - 568/13,418 (4.23)
Minneapolis - 1,791/42,092 (4.25)
Cleveland - 486/10,866 (4.47)
Spokane - 511/11,336 (4.51)
Naperville - 3,180/65,792 (4.83)
Fort Wayne - 816/16,841 (4.85)
Savannah - 804/16,317 (4.93)
Mobile - 533/10,440 (5.11)
Lubbock - 632/12,031 (5.25)
Providence - 991/15,726 (6.30)
Akron - 1,790/28,287 (6.33)
Charleston - 621/8,750 (7.10)
Jersey City - 3,211/33,865 (9.48)

It isn't really a tragedy when towns near major university hubs see high numbers of out-of-town students, as they usually just commute from home and tend to stay local after graduation (think Jersey City, Akron, Providence, Charleston, San Diego, Milwaukee, Naperville, Cleveland, or Indianapolis). However, regarding the larger cities with more educational opportunities, I actually expected Dallas to have much higher numbers.

Lawrence Williams said:I once had a conversation with Lookey regarding which cities in the Midwest see the highest rates of students commuting from out of town, and now we actually have the hard data. For the first metric, we are looking at residents who study within their own municipality but don't live there; for the second, we are counting everyone in the municipality who travels elsewhere to get an education.

City/Municipality - studying locally vs. studying away (ratio):

Chicago - 6,054/1,594 (3.80)
Detroit - 2,557/1,195 (2.14)
Indianapolis - 2,244/1,204 (1.86)
Columbus - 1,432/1,037 (1.38)
Cleveland - 819/733 (1.12)
Springfield - 385/361 (1.07)
Grand Rapids - 855/817 (1.05)
Des Moines - 851/881 (0.97)
Milwaukee - 1,924/2,186 (0.88)
Naperville - 567/683 (0.83)
Aurora - 663/834 (0.79)
Madison - 457/752 (0.61)
Toledo - 202/372 (0.54)
Omaha - 145/306 (0.47)
Lincoln - 145/315 (0.46)
Savannah - 349/769 (0.45)
Memphis - 707/1,574 (0.45)
St. Louis - 1,763/3,968 (0.44)
Minneapolis - 213/486 (0.44)
Kansas City - 553/1,278 (0.43)
Cincinnati - 780/1,842 (0.42)
Indianapolis outskirts - 631/1,516 (0.42)
Fort Wayne - 348/982 (0.35)
Dayton - 343/972 (0.35)
Akron - 349/1,000 (0.35)
Columbus suburbs - 1,024/3,180 (0.32)
Chattanooga - 138/429 (0.32)
Nashville - 343/1,152 (0.30)
Jackson - 191/653 (0.29)
Mobile - 203/728 (0.28)
Little Rock - 135/511 (0.26)
Memphis outskirts - 255/991 (0.26)
Tulsa - 109/446 (0.24)
Oklahoma City - 431/1,791 (0.24)
Birmingham - 129/616 (0.21)
Louisville - 159/797 (0.20)
Boise - 95/568 (0.17)
Des Moines outskirts - 134/816 (0.16)
San Antonio - 119/782 (0.15)
New Orleans outskirts - 88/802 (0.11)
Atlanta suburbs - 103/1,790 (0.06)
Houston suburbs - 134/3,211 (0.04)
Phoenix outskirts - 12/632 (0.02)
Dallas outskirts - 11/804 (0.01)
Savannah outskirts - 7/533 (0.01)
Charleston - 0/621 (0.00)

Do you happen to have similar stats for cities like Niš or Vranje?

On the thread about Canada, Donna James5 dropped some intel from her sources: Canadians at 46%, Mexicans at 36%, Americans at 15%, and everyone else making up the last 3%. There might be tiny fluctuations here and there, but nothing enough to flip the census results. This looks pretty realistic to me. It’s glaringly obvious that those NGO reports coming out of Ottawa have zero connection to reality—they're just intentionally feeding people misinformation.

shadowangler15 said:On the thread about Canada, Donna James5 dropped some intel from her sources: Canadians at 46%, Mexicans at 36%, Americans at 15%, and everyone else making up the last 3%. There might be tiny fluctuations here and there, but nothing enough to flip the census results. This looks pretty realistic to me. It’s glaringly obvious that those NGO reports coming out of Ottawa have zero connection to reality—they're just intentionally feeding people misinformation.

It’s an attempt at manipulation, though a rather clumsy one at that. If you apply basic arithmetic to the figures provided by that Canadian association, the math simply fails to hold water. If we accept their claim that there are 580,000 Americans making up 11.5% of the population, then Canada would need a total population of over 5 million people!

Donna James5 said:It’s an attempt at manipulation, though a rather clumsy one at that. If you apply basic arithmetic to the figures provided by that Canadian association, the math simply fails to hold water. If we accept their claim that there are 580,000 Americans making up 11.5% of the population, then Canada would need a total population of over 5 million people!

Those so-called NGOs are being completely ridiculous.

analogmarlin6 said:Do you happen to have similar stats for cities like Niš or Vranje?

The situation in Niš is a bit messy because it’s split into five municipalities, four of which are urban. So, the category "studying in a different municipality within the same field" could mean moving to a different neighborhood or heading out to Aleksinac.

Niš 2,412/5,787 (0.42)
Vranje 1,546/453 (3.41)

In Niš, about 852 people study outside the county; I doubt the number of those studying entirely outside the city exceeds 1,000.

shadowangler15 said:Those so-called NGOs are being completely ridiculous.

Can anyone drop a link to that forum regarding the demographics of Canada?
Thanks

Ronald King4 said:Can anyone drop a link to that forum regarding the demographics of Canada?
Thanks

Just go to the top left corner, type "North American demographics forum" into the search bar, and hit enter. Or just Google it. It's not that hard.