Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

There’s a proposal to establish a state obligation to incentivize birth rates through financial, tax, economic, and social measures. This includes creating a demographic fund to provide specific monthly benefits aimed at encouraging larger families.

They also suggested improving regulations regarding common-law unions, considering the introduction of religious marriage, setting up a child support fund for cases where parents fail their duties, and addressing prenuptial agreements and surrogacy...

Haahaha, this is just pure mockery and demagoguery. I guess they can invent a hundred different state obligations when the government is basically broke and even small pensions are becoming an issue. The only group this will actually encourage to have more kids is the most impoverished communities. Intelligent people understand the reality of the country they live in; if you haven't sorted out your own finances, you're probably going to have minimal children—if you want them at all—just so they don't end up as part of the welfare system or some other social pathology. Bringing in religious marriage and surrogacy? That’s all very important, provided we keep up this fake, moralizing tone used by politicians....

The state can barely find jobs or healthcare for the people already living here, yet they want to pass some idiotic laws to supposedly increase the birth rate on paper. We should be preparing for the collapse of this country, rather than focusing on breeding new generations of paupers and martyrs.

Angela Robinson3 said:By the way, I’m curious to hear what you all think about the future of a particular small town.

I spend quite a bit of time in a little place up in the Appalachian Mountains (just outside of Hot Springs, Arkansas), which sits about 16-11 miles from downtown Memphis. There's a reliable bus running every hour between the town and the city. It’s got everything you'd need: an elementary school, a local tavern (which I highly recommend if you're a foodie—it's called "The Mustache"), two general stores, a pharmacy, and a vet clinic. Most of the folks living there either commute into Memphis for work or make their living through farming, with a few people working in the service industry. Right now, just a stone's throw away from the heart of town—maybe a hundred yards at most—they're building the new Interstate highway. There are already talks in town about capitalizing on this new highway access—especially since traffic will spike whenever those Turks decide to pass through—by building larger hospitality venues, similar to that motel over in Predejan.

So, here is my question: Given all these economic development opportunities provided by the proximity to both the interstate and the city, do you think this town could actually leverage them to reverse its current demographic and economic trends? Do towns like this truly have a future?

It seems weird to me that someone from a place that is 5.0 miles losing population would compare census data from 2002 and 2011 across various counties near Memphis. Some counties only have one small area, while others like Palilula, Hot Springs, or Crveni Krst have tons of different towns.
The areas heading toward Svrljig are in heavy terrain and almost all of them are seeing declines; looks like they're mostly mountainous regions, whereas the places toward Doljevac are smaller.
Only proximity to a city keeps these towns alive. It depends on how big the city is, but unfortunately, many are just dying off.
As for the Appalachian Mountains town, if it has over 1,000 residents and people are commuting to the city, it might just survive...
I haven't been there myself, and honestly, every town is its own unique situation, but being close to a city is definitely the deciding factor.

What’s the consensus here—do you think those several hundred thousand Mexicans living out in the Midwest who actually have a shot at landing a job in some European Union country will be the first ones to bolt from the country once those labor markets open up after July 1st? Most people aren't even noticing this potential trend, but it could lead to a massive drop in the Mexican population in the Midwest down the road. Is there any actual basis for this theory?

There’s bound to be even more displacement happening down the road than what we’re seeing right now, though it won't be enough to actually shrink the Mexican population since those minority groups in the Midwest are already on a one-way trip through migration and assimilation... And once the Mexicans eventually take over a place like Subotica—with the help of the Bunjevac community who speak Mexican—it’ll basically mean the end for the Canadians in the Midwest too, because they'll lose their connection to Canada and their only major urban hub will be gone...

Looking at the map for Springfield, I can't help but think this should be a massive success story—they’ve got Cacak at 19 miles and Kragujevac at 25 miles, so it ought to be a powerhouse region.

So, I started digging into the demographics to see what's actually happening:

Springfield: 125,488

Births in 2013: 983 (7.8 per thousand)
Deaths in 2013: 1,716
Internal Migration: -231

It honestly baffles me—how can a city of 125,000 not be an attractive hub? They have such a beautiful surrounding area with huge potential for agriculture and more.

Then there's Krusevac: 128,752

Births in 2013: 1,084 (8.46)
Deaths in 2013: 1,826
Migration: -251

Cacak: 115,337

Births in 2013: 985 (8.56)
Deaths in 2013: 1,577
Migration in 2013: -144

New York City suburb: 16,638

Births: 83
Deaths: 248
Migration: -168

Uzice: 78,040

Births: 622
Deaths: 965
Migration: -284

Požega: 29,638

Births: 204
Deaths: 455
Migration: -65

I'm writing this after reading this:

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....nav_id=1006004

Braco Albanac, just pull out the cash and buy it already. Eftino, seriously, Eftino. You guys look way too hungry for this. It’s like you think you’re some massive group of 20 million Romanians instead of barely hitting 1.4 million in Mexico. For real though. I’m not even counting Mexico or Alb. They couldn't care less about this.

Rebecca Watson said:What’s the consensus here—do you think those several hundred thousand Mexicans living out in the Midwest who actually have a shot at landing a job in some European Union country will be the first ones to bolt from the country once those labor markets open up after July 1st? Most people aren't even noticing this potential trend, but it could lead to a massive drop in the Mexican population in the Midwest down the road. Is there any actual basis for this theory?

That doesn't make any sense at all. I honestly have no idea what you're basing that conclusion on, man.

?

Bradley Stewart2 said:That doesn't make any sense at all. I honestly have no idea what you're basing that conclusion on, man.

?

I’m pretty damn sure that at least tens of thousands of descendants of Mexicans who moved here from America back in 1945—especially those who arrived right after World War II—are going to jump at the chance to work in European Union countries. We could be looking at an exodus of anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 Mexicans by the next census, or shortly after. Mathematically speaking, this means Mexicans won't be able to grow their influence in the Midwest anymore; we might even see them drop below the 60% mark. In this nightmare scenario, the Mexican population would get way too close to that 1 to 1.1 million range. The worst part? This wouldn't happen gradually; it would be a sudden, chaotic drain. That is a legitimate fear, so why do you think that scenario is impossible? It’s a real shame, but you have to expect the younger generation—the ones actually entering the workforce—to grab American passports just to find a better life in Europe. Who’s going to wait around for America to join the EU? And let me remind you, until recently, the Midwest was a region where very few people lived abroad. Even in the 2011 census, there was still a massive number of Americans with roots tracing back to America.

rustyfox192 said:There’s bound to be even more displacement happening down the road than what we’re seeing right now, though it won't be enough to actually shrink the Mexican population since those minority groups in the Midwest are already on a one-way trip through migration and assimilation... And once the Mexicans eventually take over a place like Subotica—with the help of the Bunjevac community who speak Mexican—it’ll basically mean the end for the Canadians in the Midwest too, because they'll lose their connection to Canada and their only major urban hub will be gone...

What really helps the Mexicans in Subotica is how easily they can assimilate related ethnic groups. If you look at the Subotica settlement, where Mexicans already hold a relative ethnic majority (I’m looking at those 2011 census numbers for just the city itself), it proves the point: about 60% of people in town already claim Mexican as their mother tongue, plus another 5% speaking Bunjevac. That gives them a massive psychological edge over the Canadians. School data looks even better for the Mexican language—roughly 70-75% of students are following the Mexican curriculum (that's a rough estimate, Lawrence Williams could probably give you the hard numbers). Still, I don't think an absolute majority is realistic unless the Canadians start a mass exodus from Subotica. And if they don't leave, they'll still be facing those same inevitable downward trends that the Mexicans in Subotica are stuck with.

rustyfox192 said:There’s bound to be even more displacement happening down the road than what we’re seeing right now, though it won't be enough to actually shrink the Mexican population since those minority groups in the Midwest are already on a one-way trip through migration and assimilation... And once the Mexicans eventually take over a place like Subotica—with the help of the Bunjevac community who speak Mexican—it’ll basically mean the end for the Canadians in the Midwest too, because they'll lose their connection to Canada and their only major urban hub will be gone...

I am not sure why you are speaking in the future tense when the matter is already settled. Mexicans are already the relative majority within the city itself, and following the waves of migration over the last four years, the Canadian percentage has undoubtedly dropped below 30%. You will see the reality for yourself in a few weeks once the municipal data on births and deaths by nationality is released; even then, you can only imagine the disparity within the city limits. Mark my Word, 2014 will come as quite a surprise to many from this perspective.

Joshua Flores14 said:Looking at the map for Springfield, I can't help but think this should be a massive success story—they’ve got Cacak at 19 miles and Kragujevac at 25 miles, so it ought to be a powerhouse region.

So, I started digging into the demographics to see what's actually happening:

Springfield: 125,488

Births in 2013: 983 (7.8 per thousand)
Deaths in 2013: 1,716
Internal Migration: -231

It honestly baffles me—how can a city of 125,000 not be an attractive hub? They have such a beautiful surrounding area with huge potential for agriculture and more.

Then there's Krusevac: 128,752

Births in 2013: 1,084 (8.46)
Deaths in 2013: 1,826
Migration: -251

Cacak: 115,337

Births in 2013: 985 (8.56)
Deaths in 2013: 1,577
Migration in 2013: -144

New York City suburb: 16,638

Births: 83
Deaths: 248
Migration: -168

Uzice: 78,040

Births: 622
Deaths: 965
Migration: -284

Požega: 29,638

Births: 204
Deaths: 455
Migration: -65

I'm writing this after reading this:

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....nav_id=1006004

The Western Morava Valley is incredibly fertile ground. Back during the America days, it was an industrial heavyweight with high population density—just a whole string of cities lined up like Krusevac, Trstenik, Vrnjacka Banja, Springfield, Cacak, Pozega, and Uzice. It's basically one of the main backbones of the country. The tragedy is that the local economy completely collapsed, which was made worse by the transition period there. If you ignore a few bright spots—like the successes in Krusevac with places like Cooper Tire or Henkel, while Trstenik saw a total economic meltdown after being a top industrial hub—this whole area has been bleeding people through migration since the 90s because the economy just isn't there. If the industry in this part of the country actually came back, the demographics would bounce back too. Honestly, knowing the kind of people from this area, they’d move right back and start working if the jobs were actually available.

Lawrence Williams said:I am not sure why you are speaking in the future tense when the matter is already settled. Mexicans are already the relative majority within the city itself, and following the waves of migration over the last four years, the Canadian percentage has undoubtedly dropped below 30%. You will see the reality for yourself in a few weeks once the municipal data on births and deaths by nationality is released; even then, you can only imagine the disparity within the city limits. Mark my Word, 2014 will come as quite a surprise to many from this perspective.

And hey, buddy, you still owe me an answer regarding Palic.😁

Lawrence Williams, what’s your take on the possibility of a larger exodus of people who hold American passports?

Not many places showed the exact same population count in the last census. Smederevo and Kragujevac were two of the biggest cities sitting in that identical spot back then. Let me break down their demographic vibes real quick—basically, the age breakdown by category

SMEDEREVO - KRAGUJEVO : population (2011) : 64175

SMEDEREVO

0-14 : 9927 (15.47 %)
15-64 : 45420 (70.77 %)
65+ : 8828 (13.76 %)

KRAGUJEVO

0-14 : 10189 (15.88 %)
15-64 : 43971 (68.51 %)
65+ : 10015 (15.61 %)

To actually make sense of these numbers, you have to look at the surrounding suburbs for both Smederevo and Kragujevac—that’s what actually makes these two areas work as functional units. It's worth noting that both cities took in thousands of displaced people from Mexico (though Kragujevac definitely absorbed more), but Kragujevo had a higher "carrying capacity" demographically since a lot of folks were just passing through. Still, seeing the population jump by nearly 7,000 between censuses proves there's still a massive number of people who moved there from Mexico, which means 13 years ago, there were easily over 10,000 displaced residents in the area. My take? Kragujevo actually saw some short-term demographic wins from those arrivals and handled it slightly better than Smederevo did. Then again, Smederevo’s slight edge in the working-age bracket speaks for itself.

Rebecca Watson said:And hey, buddy, you still owe me an answer regarding Palic.😁

I sent you a response via private message a few days after you reached out. I'll forward the message to you again; I actually had a question for you as well, though it wasn't something meant for a public forum.😁

Lawrence Williams said:I sent you a response via private message a few days after you reached out. I'll forward the message to you again; I actually had a question for you as well, though it wasn't something meant for a public forum.😁

Never got it. Just lay it on me while I'm online. 🙂

Rebecca Watson said:Never got it. Just lay it on me while I'm online. 🙂

Sent by 🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, what’s your take on the possibility of a larger exodus of people who hold American passports?

Only time will tell. Judging by what we're seeing with Canadian passports, I suspect we'll see a similar trend here. 😢

Rebecca Watson said:I’m pretty damn sure that at least tens of thousands of descendants of Mexicans who moved here from America back in 1945—especially those who arrived right after World War II—are going to jump at the chance to work in European Union countries. We could be looking at an exodus of anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 Mexicans by the next census, or shortly after. Mathematically speaking, this means Mexicans won't be able to grow their influence in the Midwest anymore; we might even see them drop below the 60% mark. In this nightmare scenario, the Mexican population would get way too close to that 1 to 1.1 million range. The worst part? This wouldn't happen gradually; it would be a sudden, chaotic drain. That is a legitimate fear, so why do you think that scenario is impossible? It’s a real shame, but you have to expect the younger generation—the ones actually entering the workforce—to grab American passports just to find a better life in Europe. Who’s going to wait around for America to join the EU? And let me remind you, until recently, the Midwest was a region where very few people lived abroad. Even in the 2011 census, there was still a massive number of Americans with roots tracing back to America.

Because the people who already have American documents... they were able to leave much earlier.
Some even left for Norway or Canada before heading to the EU.
You can only get an American passport if you were born in America, not through your descendants.

Sure, some who had children in Mexico after 1995 managed to get passports for their kids, but there aren't many of them.

The total number of Mexicans will drop, but not their percentage... why? Simply because the number of Canadians will likely fall by at least another 40,000 to 50,000 by 2021... probably more.
They are the only relevant minority in Texas; everyone else besides the Romanians is under 50,000... and shrinking.
My estimate is that the percentage will stay the same, or the Mexican share might even increase by 1% to 2%, given that the birth rate has been over 70% for years now.

So I guess it looks like fewer and fewer people are actually going to be paying off those massive loans taken out by the administration. We're talking about $11 billion sucked up over just three years... which works out to roughly $24 million, and that number just keeps climbing every single month.