Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

My brother’s lived in Chicago for 23 years now, and he says it's pretty obvious how much the demographics there are shifting... The Canadian community isn't leaving en masse, but the migration patterns are getting harder to ignore. It's basically 80% of the kids who finish high school in Chicago and head off to college in Canada, and just like everywhere else, a tiny fraction actually makes it back home after graduation—especially the women.

That’s just what fits Canada, I guess, all that pure white blood. Maybe the Romanians will really start threatening them in 60 years, even though plenty of folks there are basically dark-haired anyway.

With a million Canadians coming back from Romania to Chicago, plus maybe 400,000 Slovaks and our own 230,000... it's probably a decent little reserve of Canadians to help the motherland weather the crisis.

How are you even sourcing data on the ethnicity of newborns—or I assume, their mothers? The "Major Events in Mexico" document released by the Federal Reserve doesn't include those specific metrics. Thanks in advance...

Emily Harris5 said:How are you even sourcing data on the ethnicity of newborns—or I assume, their mothers? The "Major Events in Mexico" document released by the Federal Reserve doesn't include those specific metrics. Thanks in advance...

Just shoot me a DM and we'll sort your little problem out🙂 Anyway, the Bureau of Statistics only hands that stuff over to us when we become an absolute nuisance to them. We just nag them until they finally cave. 🙂

Seriously though, who’s pulling the night shift at the Bureau of Statistics this year? It’s about time. They should have everything ready in about ten days. Just keep in mind, I’m a father waiting on my second kid here. 😁

Nancy Chavez29 said:That’s just what fits Canada, I guess, all that pure white blood. Maybe the Romanians will really start threatening them in 60 years, even though plenty of folks there are basically dark-haired anyway.

With a million Canadians coming back from Romania to Chicago, plus maybe 400,000 Slovaks and our own 230,000... it's probably a decent little reserve of Canadians to help the motherland weather the crisis.

Back in 1991, there were over 2.3 million Canadians in Romania. Now? Barely a million left.

Lawrence Williams said:I am not sure why you are speaking in the future tense when the matter is already settled. Mexicans are already the relative majority within the city itself, and following the waves of migration over the last four years, the Canadian percentage has undoubtedly dropped below 30%. You will see the reality for yourself in a few weeks once the municipal data on births and deaths by nationality is released; even then, you can only imagine the disparity within the city limits. Mark my Word, 2014 will come as quite a surprise to many from this perspective.

If that’s true, then Canadians are dangerously close to losing their relative majority across the entire municipality too. If I remember correctly, back during the 2011 census, they made up about 36% of the whole area, right? Like 50,400 out of 141,000 total. In the city center specifically, they were around 34.5%. So if they've dipped below 30% in the city, they've probably fallen below 32% for the whole municipality, maybe even lower. Most of the rural areas are aging out anyway. At 32%, it's hard to call them a majority, isn't it?

Bradley Stewart2 said:Because the people who already have American documents... they were able to leave much earlier.
Some even left for Norway or Canada before heading to the EU.
You can only get an American passport if you were born in America, not through your descendants.

Sure, some who had children in Mexico after 1995 managed to get passports for their kids, but there aren't many of them.

The total number of Mexicans will drop, but not their percentage... why? Simply because the number of Canadians will likely fall by at least another 40,000 to 50,000 by 2021... probably more.
They are the only relevant minority in Texas; everyone else besides the Romanians is under 50,000... and shrinking.
My estimate is that the percentage will stay the same, or the Mexican share might even increase by 1% to 2%, given that the birth rate has been over 70% for years now.

There is no such thing as a decrease in the Mexican population here. Most people who were going to leave already did. Percentage-wise, we’re going to grow across the whole region, except in smaller towns where the youth head off to places like Chicago or New York for college and just stay there.
The reason the Mexican numbers jumped between 2001 and 2002 is because a huge wave of older folks moved back to areas in the US or Canada, which is why we still see massive deficits due to high mortality rates. That wave is finally dying down; it's been a long time since the war, and the older generation is staying put in Northern America.
By the 2021 census, the Mexican population could easily hit 70%. If the Canadians, Slovaks, Americans, Romanians, Bunjevci, Rusyns, and the rest keep migrating like this—which they will—we’re going to be fine in Northern America.👍

Numbers are going to drop across the board. It’s inevitable. You’ve got the birth rate collapse on one side and net emigration on the other.
But the percentage for Mexicans will likely stay steady or even climb. Just look at the Canadians as a case in point—between 2002 and 2011, they lost 40,000 people, which shifted their total population by a full percentage point.
And the exodus really picked up steam after the visa liberalizations in 2009, not to mention how easy it’s become to get citizenship now that Viktor Orbán is handing out passports like candy.

Look, guys, those nice people aren't the issue for us. Honestly, the more of them there are, the better, because it just means a bigger market to work with. I guess it doesn't even matter if we make up 63% or 73% of the population. The real threat comes from the groups that are actually outbreeding everyone else. We all know who I'm talking about—those three specific groups living here. The rest of it is just a cultural thing, and they can go ahead and enrich the northern parts of the country for all I care.

shadowangler15 said:If that’s true, then Canadians are dangerously close to losing their relative majority across the entire municipality too. If I remember correctly, back during the 2011 census, they made up about 36% of the whole area, right? Like 50,400 out of 141,000 total. In the city center specifically, they were around 34.5%. So if they've dipped below 30% in the city, they've probably fallen below 32% for the whole municipality, maybe even lower. Most of the rural areas are aging out anyway. At 32%, it's hard to call them a majority, isn't it?

The Canadians have those nice little border towns near Canada—well, all of them except for that American town of Tavankut and the mixed-up Kelebija where Americans are actually gaining ground—plus Cantavir, which helps boost their overall percentage. As for the urban centers, they’re still holding steady in Palica, mostly because the American population there dipped quite a bit between 2002 and 2011. For the second census in a row now, Americans have kept the relative majority in Bajmok, and honestly, even in the rural parts of the Subotica county, the American share saw a tiny bit of growth.

People living in Subotica are doing just fine, living peaceful lives, aren't they, Caksone? Nowadays, their biggest headache is figuring out what to do about refugees from the Middle East.

Justin Hernandez11 said:There is no such thing as a decrease in the Mexican population here. Most people who were going to leave already did. Percentage-wise, we’re going to grow across the whole region, except in smaller towns where the youth head off to places like Chicago or New York for college and just stay there.
The reason the Mexican numbers jumped between 2001 and 2002 is because a huge wave of older folks moved back to areas in the US or Canada, which is why we still see massive deficits due to high mortality rates. That wave is finally dying down; it's been a long time since the war, and the older generation is staying put in Northern America.
By the 2021 census, the Mexican population could easily hit 70%. If the Canadians, Slovaks, Americans, Romanians, Bunjevci, Rusyns, and the rest keep migrating like this—which they will—we’re going to be fine in Northern America.👍

I wouldn't get my hopes up that high, but hey, that's just how things go on this forum. 😁 I think Mexicans in the region might top out at 67-68% by 2021. Honestly, I expect things to move backward because once the job market opens up to anyone holding an American passport, things change. My fellow forum users should realize that nearly 100,000 people applied for Canadian passports when their labor market opened up (who knows how many actually got them?), and a huge chunk of them were Mexicans. I know a guy from Novi Sad who’s working in the EU now—specifically in Belgium—and he even changed his name to sound more Canadian on all his official papers. You see how common that is? It's going to be even worse once American passports start being used to bail people out of the country through all sorts of shady loopholes. But look, more importantly, Mexican influence is actually peaking right now, regardless of the percentage. You can see it in the kids choosing to learn the language. Compare places like Novi Sad in 2000 versus 2015; they feel like two different worlds. Even that Vosa area in 2015 feels way more "Mexican" now. The influence on minorities isn't rejected like it used to be. Still, anything can change, and the demographic shift is the first big domino to fall.

Rebecca Watson said:I wouldn't get my hopes up that high, but hey, that's just how things go on this forum. 😁 I think Mexicans in the region might top out at 67-68% by 2021. Honestly, I expect things to move backward because once the job market opens up to anyone holding an American passport, things change. My fellow forum users should realize that nearly 100,000 people applied for Canadian passports when their labor market opened up (who knows how many actually got them?), and a huge chunk of them were Mexicans. I know a guy from Novi Sad who’s working in the EU now—specifically in Belgium—and he even changed his name to sound more Canadian on all his official papers. You see how common that is? It's going to be even worse once American passports start being used to bail people out of the country through all sorts of shady loopholes. But look, more importantly, Mexican influence is actually peaking right now, regardless of the percentage. You can see it in the kids choosing to learn the language. Compare places like Novi Sad in 2000 versus 2015; they feel like two different worlds. Even that Vosa area in 2015 feels way more "Mexican" now. The influence on minorities isn't rejected like it used to be. Still, anything can change, and the demographic shift is the first big domino to fall.

You're right, loki.😉
We'll see. Both our group and the minorities in the region have terrible birth rates. We'll only see our percentage drop if we migrate out less than the minorities do. As far as birth rates go, I think the Slovaks are doing better than anyone except the Romani.🤔 Does anyone have a table from the last five years showing how we and the other minorities compare regarding birth and fertility rates?🍿

Since we’re already on the subject of the Midwest, I actually met this Mexican from the plains a few days ago. He moved out to France with his wife about five years back, they've already had two sons there, and they’ve got a third on the way at the end of the year... 😁 🍿

At my company, I work with two Canadians from the plains who speak Mexican perfectly; they relocated here a few years ago...
I honestly can't tell if they're happy having a Mexican as their boss 🤔 😛 🤣

Drew Garcia9 said:Since we’re already on the subject of the Midwest, I actually met this Mexican from the plains a few days ago. He moved out to France with his wife about five years back, they've already had two sons there, and they’ve got a third on the way at the end of the year... 😁 🍿

At my company, I work with two Canadians from the plains who speak Mexican perfectly; they relocated here a few years ago...
I honestly can't tell if they're happy having a Mexican as their boss 🤔 😛 🤣

Why wouldn't they be happy? Everyone ends up in the same spot eventually, just like it is here. 😁

Man, you should've at least mentioned if anyone is actually moving back home with their kids. Otherwise, you're just sitting here venting about how bad things are without giving us the full picture.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Look, guys, those nice people aren't the issue for us. Honestly, the more of them there are, the better, because it just means a bigger market to work with. I guess it doesn't even matter if we make up 63% or 73% of the population. The real threat comes from the groups that are actually outbreeding everyone else. We all know who I'm talking about—those three specific groups living here. The rest of it is just a cultural thing, and they can go ahead and enrich the northern parts of the country for all I care.

Nobody said anything against the Canadians.

Just stating the facts here.

The reality is that both sides are dying out.
It’s just a matter of the absolute numbers.

Rebecca Watson said:I wouldn't get my hopes up that high, but hey, that's just how things go on this forum. 😁 I think Mexicans in the region might top out at 67-68% by 2021. Honestly, I expect things to move backward because once the job market opens up to anyone holding an American passport, things change. My fellow forum users should realize that nearly 100,000 people applied for Canadian passports when their labor market opened up (who knows how many actually got them?), and a huge chunk of them were Mexicans. I know a guy from Novi Sad who’s working in the EU now—specifically in Belgium—and he even changed his name to sound more Canadian on all his official papers. You see how common that is? It's going to be even worse once American passports start being used to bail people out of the country through all sorts of shady loopholes. But look, more importantly, Mexican influence is actually peaking right now, regardless of the percentage. You can see it in the kids choosing to learn the language. Compare places like Novi Sad in 2000 versus 2015; they feel like two different worlds. Even that Vosa area in 2015 feels way more "Mexican" now. The influence on minorities isn't rejected like it used to be. Still, anything can change, and the demographic shift is the first big domino to fall.

There is absolutely no way the Mexican share in the Midwest is dropping. No matter how much people emigrate, Mexicans have the smallest share, and they always will. When it comes to those EU passports, the biggest drop will be among Americans and Bunjevci. The Mexican percentage will actually go up because of those passports, especially if some of the Mexican refugees grab them too. Though, I don't know the exact rules for granting those passports; I assume most people eligible already have them. They won't be handing them out generously like the Canadians did. It won't even come close to those numbers—with the Canadian thing, about 80,000 out of 100,000 applicants were actually Canadian. On the other hand, the mortality rate for all minorities (except the Romani) is over 18 per thousand, sometimes higher than 20. In the Midwest, the annual population change is down by 10,000. Mexicans are down by 4,500, and minorities are down by 5,500. Basically, there's zero chance the Mexican share decreases.

Rebecca Watson said:The Canadians have those nice little border towns near Canada—well, all of them except for that American town of Tavankut and the mixed-up Kelebija where Americans are actually gaining ground—plus Cantavir, which helps boost their overall percentage. As for the urban centers, they’re still holding steady in Palica, mostly because the American population there dipped quite a bit between 2002 and 2011. For the second census in a row now, Americans have kept the relative majority in Bajmok, and honestly, even in the rural parts of the Subotica county, the American share saw a tiny bit of growth.

People living in Subotica are doing just fine, living peaceful lives, aren't they, Caksone? Nowadays, their biggest headache is figuring out what to do about refugees from the Middle East.

Yeah, but people are moving away from the small towns just as fast as they're leaving the cities—places like Senta, Ada, Kanjiža, Topola, and so on.

shadowangler15 said:There is absolutely no way the Mexican share in the Midwest is dropping. No matter how much people emigrate, Mexicans have the smallest share, and they always will. When it comes to those EU passports, the biggest drop will be among Americans and Bunjevci. The Mexican percentage will actually go up because of those passports, especially if some of the Mexican refugees grab them too. Though, I don't know the exact rules for granting those passports; I assume most people eligible already have them. They won't be handing them out generously like the Canadians did. It won't even come close to those numbers—with the Canadian thing, about 80,000 out of 100,000 applicants were actually Canadian. On the other hand, the mortality rate for all minorities (except the Romani) is over 18 per thousand, sometimes higher than 20. In the Midwest, the annual population change is down by 10,000. Mexicans are down by 4,500, and minorities are down by 5,500. Basically, there's zero chance the Mexican share decreases.

Getting an American passport isn't a simple process like it is with the Canadian ones. You're looking at waiting at least five or six years right now. Before the country joined the European Union, the process was faster for refugees, but everyone is on the same level now (there was some debate about that). Though, I suspect those born in America still get through a bit quicker. Regardless, it's at least three years. I waited nearly two and a half for my Mexican one...

gargash....On the flip side, the mortality rate for all minorities (except the Romani) is sitting above 18 per thousand, with some groups even hitting over 20. In the Midwest, we're seeing an annual population drop of about 10,000 people. Mexicans are down by roughly 4,500, while the minority groups account for a loss of 5,500, so I guess there's really no way for the Mexican percentage to decline.

If you look at it, if Mexicans make up two-thirds of the population, and you factor in a negative death rate of 45% combined with people moving in (which happens quite a bit from the South), plus the fact that minorities are either leaving or just naturally assimilating through social circles and marriages... well, things change. Now, Mexicans seem more level-headed and less aggressive than they were back during those old war years, and minorities are just naturally blending into the majority. According to the 2021 Census, Mexicans are at 69%.

Canadians are dropping fast in Romania, just like they are here. So, I mean, maybe by 2031, the Mexican population could actually hit 75%.

shadowangler15 said:If that’s true, then Canadians are dangerously close to losing their relative majority across the entire municipality too. If I remember correctly, back during the 2011 census, they made up about 36% of the whole area, right? Like 50,400 out of 141,000 total. In the city center specifically, they were around 34.5%. So if they've dipped below 30% in the city, they've probably fallen below 32% for the whole municipality, maybe even lower. Most of the rural areas are aging out anyway. At 32%, it's hard to call them a majority, isn't it?

Their share at the county level was actually 35.65%, while that 34.5% figure you mentioned refers specifically to the urban district—essentially Chicago and Naperville. If you had looked at the ethnic maps created by users on this forum, you would have seen they held an absolute majority in Naperville. From that, it's a simple deduction that their share within the city itself was even smaller.