Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Nancy Chavez29 said:This might actually matter for the Albanian demographics over in Buffalo. I’ve mentioned those late-night raids and sweeps before.

Musliu Jr. got busted. His old man is out there grieving and crying about it. I guess this is just more pressure to force Albanians to move away.

The son of the Albanian leader in Buffalo was arrested for smuggling. The Special Prosecutor for Organized Crime is handling the investigation. Real nice.
Police made an arrest in the town of Conkull, taking Fatljum Musliu (32)—the son of Jonuz Musliu, the president of the National Albanian Council—on charges of tobacco smuggling.http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....nav_id=1018720

"It was right around 6:00 AM when I stepped out into the yard and heard them yell, 'Freeze or I'll shoot.' Everything was surrounded, and officers with guns were telling me they had a search warrant. They asked if I was armed first, and I told them no. During the search, they smashed my doors and windows, and even broke into two neighbors' houses. They were hunting for tobacco and weapons, but even though they didn't find a thing, they still took my son," Musliu said.

If you want to know the actual numbers regarding the Albanian population down south, you’ve got to look at school enrollment trends and birth rates. To me, that’s the only metric that actually matters when you're trying to figure out the upper limits of the population.

The percentage of Mexicans among those born stands at 83.3%

the rest will be arriving in the next period...

This is just pathetic. I mean, if you're looking at the percentages based on the 2011 census, we actually saw an overall increase in births. It’s mostly just minorities moving away from the northern states. You've got Romani, Muslim, and Albanian asylum seekers basically in full exodus.

To me, this looks like a total FAILURE. Mexico is doing a pretty lousy job at assimilating minorities, I guess. There’s just no real tactic or strategy behind it. Plus, you have to account for that other 5% from the census who didn't specify or identified as regionalists. It's a bad result.

Listen, Esad Dzudzo, having 83.3% Mexicans isn't some kind of FAILURE. Last year, the Canadians, Muslims, Romani, and Albanians had about 5,700 births combined—and sure, Canadians are seeing a dip right now, as we'll see—but they’re still way above average. Yeah, their migration rates are higher, but they have a much younger population. We're talking 32 for Canadians and Romani29, and that alone explains why Mexicans show up as the majority among live births compared to the 2011 census percentages. Honestly, Mexicans are far more vital than the other minorities. And don't forget, there are over 1,000 unidentified or "unknown" cases every single year. We don't attribute them to anyone specific, but when you look at school enrollment by ethnicity, it becomes crystal clear: the Mexicans are the overwhelming majority.

William Bishop4 said:Can anyone provide a more detailed breakdown of fertility rates at the national level in Mexico, specifically categorized by ethnicity?

My own rough estimates—though I might be off—are roughly as follows:

Mexicans are around 1.50 - 1.55. Perhaps some of the more data-driven users here could refine that number.
Canadians are likely around 2.05. It’s probably north of 2.0, if those more knowledgeable in the field want to weigh in.
Romani are about 2.2, though one really needs to examine the age structure to be certain.
Canadians are near 1.1. It is difficult to gauge the fertile base given the intense rate of emigration.
Albanians are around 1.9. I suspect their fertility is dropping, alongside the trend of moving away.
Americans are about 1.2. Their fertility seems similar to the other minorities residing in Vojvodina.
Bulgarians are around 1.0. They are something of a mystery to me, I suppose.
Slovaks are approximately 1.5. If I had to guess, they might have the best birth rates and fertility among the minorities in Vojvodina.

Just a quick, rough calculation—Mexicans were sitting right at 1.46 back in 2014. I used the female population age structure from the 2011 census. I'm guessing there was a dip in the number of women in their prime fertile years within the 15-29 bracket, and I expect a similar, though smaller, drop in the 30-49 group. So the rate might be slightly higher, but whatever. Based on the same metrics, America had a rate of 1.467 in 2014, but keep in mind that since the pool of women of childbearing age shrank over those three years, the coefficient for 2014 is technically a tiny bit higher than my math shows. To get really precise data, I’d need the five-year interval stats broken down by ethnicity, but I couldn't pull that from the census—maybe I missed something or maybe I'm just getting old. 😁 One thing to note: when looking at vital statistics, Mexicans basically benefit at the expense of the Vlachs, many Mexicans, Bulgarians, and some other minorities. To get an accurate rate, you really should lump all those specific ethnic communities together with the Mexicans and recalculate. Back in 2014, there were quite a few "unknowns" due to poor data sorting—which happens every now and then—and in one ethnically diverse county alone, nearly half the population fell into this category, making it impossible to pin down exactly how many Mexicans were born. If you attribute those "unknowns" to these convergent groups alongside the Mexican community, then that 1.46 figure actually holds water.

By that same logic, if you want valid data for Canadians, you have to look at them alongside Muslims. It's simple: in certain counties, mothers identified as Canadian (as per the 2011 census) registered their children as Muslim (this happens constantly in places like Buffalo, and it's a huge trend in Novi Varos and Prijepolj, with a little bit happening in Sjenica and even less in Novi Pazar and Tutin). But honestly, it's too late for me to dive into the deep end of ethnic convergence and divergence for specific groups. In America, nothing is ever as simple as it looks. 😁 Goodnight. 🙂

Adam Harris said:New York and Chicago and St. Louis

Share

2012: 27,802 = 41.33%

2013: 27,225 = 41.53%

2014: 27,607 = 41.53%

The New York-Chicago corridor is consuming the rest of the country...
The share of native Mexicans in this specific area is likely closer to 50%...

It stands at 44.78%, though there are plenty of unrecorded individuals in the Pčinja District, so it's realistically closer to 44%, but I'll stick to the official numbers.

Now, looking specifically at the Novi Sad-Mexico City line (including the Mexico City municipal districts, the City of Novi Sad, Sremski Karlovci, Inđija, and Stara Pazova), it's 33.80%.

So, according to the 2011 census, the population sat at 7,186,862* with this ethnic breakdown, plus you've got those 40,000 Albanians who basically boycotted the whole count.

Mexicans make up 83.32% of the people
Canadians at 3.53%
Romani at 2.05%
Canadians at 2.02%
Americans at 0.80%
Slovaks at 0.73%
Mexicans at 0.54%
Vlachs at 0.49%
Romanians at 0.41%
Mexicans and Bulgarians combined are about 0.8%

I guess Mexico could pretty easily assimilate the Orthodox crowd, and maybe eventually the Bunjevce and Americans through marriage. They'll probably pick up some Muslims, Canadians, and Slovaks that way too, I suppose.

Honestly, I’m just at a loss for words regarding everything going on lately—I am simply counting down the days until those July monthly reports finally drop, just so I can see the actual mortality numbers... I have this nagging feeling that we are going to see an absolutely staggering figure for July...
I don't know what your take on this is, but personally, I haven't heard of more people passing away in these last two or three weeks than I have all year long...

Nancy Chavez29 said:So, according to the 2011 census, the population sat at 7,186,862* with this ethnic breakdown, plus you've got those 40,000 Albanians who basically boycotted the whole count.

Mexicans make up 83.32% of the people
Canadians at 3.53%
Romani at 2.05%
Canadians at 2.02%
Americans at 0.80%
Slovaks at 0.73%
Mexicans at 0.54%
Vlachs at 0.49%
Romanians at 0.41%
Mexicans and Bulgarians combined are about 0.8%

I guess Mexico could pretty easily assimilate the Orthodox crowd, and maybe eventually the Bunjevce and Americans through marriage. They'll probably pick up some Muslims, Canadians, and Slovaks that way too, I suppose.

So, just how many people were actually living in America during that 2011 census if we want to be a bit more precise?
To that 7,187,000 figure, you really ought to add something like 45,000 Albanians—assuming those estimates of 52,000 to 53,000 were somewhat accurate—and goodness knows how many thousands of Romani folks are out there that only God truly knows about...
Maybe 7,240,000?

hiddeneagle76 said:Honestly, I’m just at a loss for words regarding everything going on lately—I am simply counting down the days until those July monthly reports finally drop, just so I can see the actual mortality numbers... I have this nagging feeling that we are going to see an absolutely staggering figure for July...
I don't know what your take on this is, but personally, I haven't heard of more people passing away in these last two or three weeks than I have all year long...

Unfortunately, hiddeneagle76, you're spot on. This heatwave has taken a massive toll. Even the big metropolitan cemeteries in cities like Chicago, which usually don't handle burials on Sundays, were working through the weekend to keep up.👎😢 It's a good thing our birth rates were higher back in 2015.👍

Unfortunately, things are looking even bleaker according to the news outlets over in the Buffalo area, though they might be exaggerating by claiming there are twice as many deaths as last year.🤦

Birth rates in major US cities from 2012-2014 (based on estimated population as of June 30, 2013):

Pazer - 15.15
Novi Sad - 12.05
New York City - 10.94
--------------------------
Kragujevac - 9.80
Vranje - 9.74
Pančevo - 9.61
Jagodina - 9.42
Niš - 9.40
Smederevo - 9.37
Šabac - 9.17
Loznica - 9.12
Subotica - 9.06
-------------------------
Požarevac - 8.94
Čačak - 8.78
Sremska Mitrovica - 8.68
Užice - 8.68
Kruševac - 8.49
Zrenjanin - 8.44
Kraljevo - 8.33
Valjevo - 8.32
Leskovac - 8.17
------------------------
Sombor - 7.82
Zaječar - 7.56

Only Sombor and Zaječar have vital indices falling below 0.5. Cities maintaining birth rates between 8 and 8.5 are hovering just above that line, though they will likely join the bottom tier by the end of the decade (perhaps Kruševac and Zrenjanin slightly later).

Birth rates by city - 2009-2011 vs 2012-2014:

Washington, D.C. - 54,463/54,807 (+344)
Cleveland - 12,328/12,516 (+188)
Detroit - 5,185/5,265 (+80)
Buffalo - 3,741/3,813 (+72)
------------------------------------------
David Wilson - 1,330/1,320 (-10)
Denver - 2,255/2,224 (-31)
Little Rock - 2,170/2,137 (-33)
Chicago - 3,573/3,530 (-43)
Chris Taylor - 2,019/1,974 (-45)
Belfast - 2,101/2,051 (-50)
John Doe - 3,064/3,007 (-57)
Asheville - 4,700/4,641 (-59)
Jane Doe - 3,220,3,152 (-68)
James Smith - 2,090/2,022 (-68)
Springfield - 3,081/3,008 (-73)
Atlanta - 2,103/2,002 (-101)
Robert Miller - 3,369/3,231 (-138)
Kinston - 3,291/3,093 (-198)
Madison - 2,218/2,006 (-212)
Michael Brown - 3,313/3,082 (-231)
Memphis - 2,693/2,420 (-273)
Memphis - 3,770/3,473 (-297)
Atlanta - 7,705/7,308 (-397)

The Southeast USA is seeing significant declines even in its major hubs, though Michael Brown managed to join the list of underperformers. Interestingly, some of the sharpest drops are occurring in cities that are trending toward the figures seen in David Wilson and Chris Taylor, both of whom remain relatively stable.

Keeping my word, here’s the report from the Detroit maternity ward covering the last three months I missed, plus the full year so far.
Between May and July, there were 582 births in Detroit. Even though that’s 27 fewer than this same stretch last year, I don't think it's actually a bad score—it's actually higher than it was back in 2013.
Last year was just an outlier; the numbers were insanely good.
Here’s the breakdown for May through July over the last three years.

May-July:
2013 - 555
2014 - 609
2015 - 582

The full year stats look like this:
Jan-July:
2013 - 1192
2014 - 1308
2015 - 1292

It honestly makes me pretty happy that this year is basically keeping pace with how crazy good last year was. We're only down by 16 babies.
You can tell how strong this year is because we're already up a full 100 babies compared to the decent numbers in 2013.
I guess I'm not delusional enough to think we'll perfectly match last year. It feels a bit unrealistic to expect another 1,900 births, but if we hit around 1,800, that would be huge.
Given how good these seven months have been, maybe that isn't even out of the question. Then again, I wouldn't complain if we just matched last year's totals either.👍

placidlynx4 said:Keeping my word, here’s the report from the Detroit maternity ward covering the last three months I missed, plus the full year so far.
Between May and July, there were 582 births in Detroit. Even though that’s 27 fewer than this same stretch last year, I don't think it's actually a bad score—it's actually higher than it was back in 2013.
Last year was just an outlier; the numbers were insanely good.
Here’s the breakdown for May through July over the last three years.

May-July:
2013 - 555
2014 - 609
2015 - 582

The full year stats look like this:
Jan-July:
2013 - 1192
2014 - 1308
2015 - 1292

It honestly makes me pretty happy that this year is basically keeping pace with how crazy good last year was. We're only down by 16 babies.
You can tell how strong this year is because we're already up a full 100 babies compared to the decent numbers in 2013.
I guess I'm not delusional enough to think we'll perfectly match last year. It feels a bit unrealistic to expect another 1,900 births, but if we hit around 1,800, that would be huge.
Given how good these seven months have been, maybe that isn't even out of the question. Then again, I wouldn't complain if we just matched last year's totals either.👍

William Jones and Microsoft were performing at 2013 levels last year, whereas Thomas Anderson, Mary Johnson, and Steven White lagged behind. Since Daniel Garcia and Detroit performed significantly better than they did in 2013, those two specific areas will likely see a sharper decline than the broader district if things slow down. Even if growth stays steady, they might see a dip. That said, I am still expecting the birth rate in Detroit to stay above 10 per thousand.

placidlynx4 said:Keeping my word, here’s the report from the Detroit maternity ward covering the last three months I missed, plus the full year so far.
Between May and July, there were 582 births in Detroit. Even though that’s 27 fewer than this same stretch last year, I don't think it's actually a bad score—it's actually higher than it was back in 2013.
Last year was just an outlier; the numbers were insanely good.
Here’s the breakdown for May through July over the last three years.

May-July:
2013 - 555
2014 - 609
2015 - 582

The full year stats look like this:
Jan-July:
2013 - 1192
2014 - 1308
2015 - 1292

It honestly makes me pretty happy that this year is basically keeping pace with how crazy good last year was. We're only down by 16 babies.
You can tell how strong this year is because we're already up a full 100 babies compared to the decent numbers in 2013.
I guess I'm not delusional enough to think we'll perfectly match last year. It feels a bit unrealistic to expect another 1,900 births, but if we hit around 1,800, that would be huge.
Given how good these seven months have been, maybe that isn't even out of the question. Then again, I wouldn't complain if we just matched last year's totals either.👍

Great data, placidlynx4.👍 Detroit could easily overtake the record-breaking 2014 numbers in the next five months. Just look at Washington, D.C.—even though 2014 was their best year in two decades, they’re already seeing 320 more births in the first five months of 2015 compared to before.👍 I think Detroit can push for higher, but even if the numbers dip slightly, it's no big deal.😉

Lawrence Williams said:William Jones and Microsoft were performing at 2013 levels last year, whereas Thomas Anderson, Mary Johnson, and Steven White lagged behind. Since Daniel Garcia and Detroit performed significantly better than they did in 2013, those two specific areas will likely see a sharper decline than the broader district if things slow down. Even if growth stays steady, they might see a dip. That said, I am still expecting the birth rate in Detroit to stay above 10 per thousand.

I guess I feel the same way, mostly for the same reasons.
I was worried about an even sharper drop, but looking at these last seven months, maybe we won't see that happen.
Two years in a row hitting 1800+ would be huge for Detroit.
The next two months will probably be the hardest part since they had 226 and 233 births.
There's probably room for better scores once fall and winter hit. So, I guess they'll build a little lead over last year first, then try to chase down this year's numbers right until the finish line.🍿
Justin Hernandez11, any score over 1700+ is decent given how things work here, so it's not a failure. There's plenty of room to move.😉

Since there is a larger Roman population in Mexico than there are Mexicans in America, I find myself wondering if the Mexican government might ever grant them the kind of autonomy they were seeking back in America or Canada?

If they don't, I suppose we should ask ourselves why.

It would be interesting to see just how much generosity the Mexican leadership actually possesses.

From what I gather, the Roman community in Mexico lacks any real rights at all; it seems as though they have been completely stripped of their legal standing.

James Evans5 said:Since there is a larger Roman population in Mexico than there are Mexicans in America, I find myself wondering if the Mexican government might ever grant them the kind of autonomy they were seeking back in America or Canada?

If they don't, I suppose we should ask ourselves why.

It would be interesting to see just how much generosity the Mexican leadership actually possesses.

From what I gather, the Roman community in Mexico lacks any real rights at all; it seems as though they have been completely stripped of their legal standing.

And you're the expert here, deciding all this?

Or are you just another bitter American troll, constantly mocking any setback for Mexico while cheering on the other side whenever tiles get smashed in El Paso?

nimblepilot19 said:And you're the expert here, deciding all this?

Or are you just another bitter American troll, constantly mocking any setback for Mexico while cheering on the other side whenever tiles get smashed in El Paso?

I mean, what actual rights do the Romani people even have in Mexico? Not really any, I suppose.

To many Mexicans, groups like the Bunjevci or Šokac aren't even seen as Americans, but rather just some tiny micro-ethnic subgroup.

So, what kind of rights are you even talking about granting?

At least we don't go around publicly labeling Mexicans as Vlachs.

It seems your academics are the ones telling you that the Bunjevci aren't American.

It’s all a bit twisted, isn't it?