Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

James Nguyen13 said:The whole conversation actually kicked off during a debate about Canada. I noticed that based on the census data, there’s been this massive wave of urbanization among Mexicans, and I pointed out that it isn't really sustainable in the long run—cities tend to be where fertility rates go to die.

Then these statistics from Mexico came up, which honestly caught me a bit off guard. Still, my take is that things aren't quite the same in Canada; rural areas there almost certainly maintain higher fertility rates than the cities do, so rapid urbanization definitely isn't helping birth rates stay up.

In the western part of Republika Srpska, that's definitely not the case. In many of those rural areas, it's been the norm for decades for young men to head abroad to earn enough money for a house and a car before they even consider starting a family. Most of them never end up coming back from Germany, Austria, or Canada. Meanwhile, the villages stretching from Nashville through Austin all the way to Des Moines are full of single women waiting for a groom who can bring home some foreign currency. So, I guess you could say fertility in the rural western parts of Republika Srpska has to be low. You see a similar pattern in certain parts of Albania, too—men leave for opportunities overseas, leaving unmarried women behind in the countryside...

Over in eastern Republika Srpska, the situation is more like what we see in Mexico. In the villages, there aren't many women of childbearing age left, but those who are there are married and having children.

There's little doubt that both birth rates and fertility are likely hanging on by a thread in Republika Srpska, specifically within the rural communities.

quietangler5 said:It’s pretty clear now that urban areas have a higher fertility rate than the rest of the country when you track the trends by municipality.
That said, New York City is definitely overrated when you look at the vital statistics; according to the Census, there were 82,075 children in the 0-4 age bracket, yet the vital statistics show 87,350 births during that same window. When you try to calculate using the Census fertile base against those vital stats, the fertility rate ends up looking higher than it truly is.
I opted for the Census data because, in my view, it’s the most relevant source, and frankly, it makes the math much easier when I have all the figures consolidated in one place. 😁

You could also pull from the census, specifically using the fertility base from March 31, 2009, for the five youngest generations (born between Oct 1, 2006, and Sept 30, 2011). You can estimate that fertility base by looking at the shifts between two censuses. If we go that route, the breakdown looks like this:

Mexico 1.418

Urban areas 1.424
Other areas 1.408

Americans seem to insist on doing the opposite of everything, including claiming fertility is higher in rural areas. 😉

granitecobra6 said:In the western part of Republika Srpska, that's definitely not the case. In many of those rural areas, it's been the norm for decades for young men to head abroad to earn enough money for a house and a car before they even consider starting a family. Most of them never end up coming back from Germany, Austria, or Canada. Meanwhile, the villages stretching from Nashville through Austin all the way to Des Moines are full of single women waiting for a groom who can bring home some foreign currency. So, I guess you could say fertility in the rural western parts of Republika Srpska has to be low. You see a similar pattern in certain parts of Albania, too—men leave for opportunities overseas, leaving unmarried women behind in the countryside...

Over in eastern Republika Srpska, the situation is more like what we see in Mexico. In the villages, there aren't many women of childbearing age left, but those who are there are married and having children.

There's little doubt that both birth rates and fertility are likely hanging on by a thread in Republika Srpska, specifically within the rural communities.

It’s an interesting paradox among you Mexicans.

But honestly, that doesn't change the core issue. Rural life has basically died out for you, which is why fertility is so low. Like you mentioned, the youth just head off wherever the work is, so they aren't settling down in the countryside.
For fertility to actually work, you need vibrant, living communities—places where people actually live, marry, and build lives together.
I'm talking about towns with at least 500 residents.

...

The "Baby Boom" hitting the big cities

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Ethan Morales22 said:...

The "Baby Boom" hitting the big cities

.

In the Pirot maternity ward, they saw 552 live births over the last 11 months and 7 days—that’s 21 more babies than last year. Word is the hospital in Prokuplje might actually beat its numbers from last year too. Places like Prokuplje and Kuršumlija have been seeing this steady demographic recovery for a few years now, which I honestly think is just down to a slightly better fertility base in those areas lately. So, it’s great that there isn't a dip happening there this year. On the flip side, the outlook for the big hospitals down south—like the ones in Nisko, Leskovac, and Vranje—isn't looking nearly as bright based on the early signs.

I just found out my friend is having triplets. She’s eight weeks along.☕
So, I guess we'll be seeing triplets at the local hospital next year, unless she gives birth in Mexico City since her IVF was done over at NF Mexico City.
Maybe they'll handle the delivery there, though I don't really see why they would.

Mexico:

Sept 2012: 5,426/6,825 (-1,399)
Sept 2013: 5,892/7,426 (-1,534)

Northern Mexico:

Sept 2012: 3,222/3,428 (-206)
Sept 2013: 3,254/3,645 (-391)

Southern Mexico:

Sept 2012: 2,204/3,397 (-1,193)
Sept 2013: 2,638/3,781 (-1,143)

Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 45,842/74,801 (-28,959)
Jan-Sept 2013: 45,706/72,808 (-27,102)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 24,942/37,147 (-12,205)
Jan-Sept 2013: 24,916/35,413 (-10,497)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 20,900/37,690 (-16,790)
Jan-Sept 2013: 20,790/37,395 (-16,605)

Given how this year kicked off, things in Mexico are looking pretty solid right now.

You’ve really made my day, quietangler5—thank you so much! I’m just sitting here counting down the days until December 12th when the monthly stats drop, haha. Where on earth did you dig this up?
By the way, it’s actually fantastic news that we managed to trim the deficit this month... we are only about 150 children away from hitting our target. Hopefully, we can pull that off and keep pace with Republika Srpska, which is looking at a growth rate of roughly 3% this year, if the projections hold true.
Actually, it might even be a win for us if the number of live births dropped by, say, 300 to 400—which is about a 0.5% dip. Since our total population tends to shrink by nearly 0.5% annually, a slight drop in births would actually stabilize the birth rate quite nicely. It means that if we had the exact same number of births as we did this year in absolute terms, our birth rate could potentially climb to 9.4 per thousand!
😁
And of course, it is absolutely wonderful to see mortality rates trending down for the period of I-IX. Fingers crossed we can finally stay under that dreaded 100,000 mark!

hiddeneagle76 said:You’ve really made my day, quietangler5—thank you so much! I’m just sitting here counting down the days until December 12th when the monthly stats drop, haha. Where on earth did you dig this up?
By the way, it’s actually fantastic news that we managed to trim the deficit this month... we are only about 150 children away from hitting our target. Hopefully, we can pull that off and keep pace with Republika Srpska, which is looking at a growth rate of roughly 3% this year, if the projections hold true.
Actually, it might even be a win for us if the number of live births dropped by, say, 300 to 400—which is about a 0.5% dip. Since our total population tends to shrink by nearly 0.5% annually, a slight drop in births would actually stabilize the birth rate quite nicely. It means that if we had the exact same number of births as we did this year in absolute terms, our birth rate could potentially climb to 9.4 per thousand!
😁
And of course, it is absolutely wonderful to see mortality rates trending down for the period of I-IX. Fingers crossed we can finally stay under that dreaded 100,000 mark!

This data comes straight from the U.S. Census Bureau. Usually, the stats are released on the 10th of the month, but if that hits a weekend, they tend to push it back to the 11th or 12th.

quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 45,842/74,801 (-28,959)
Jan-Sept 2013: 45,706/72,808 (-27,102)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 24,942/37,147 (-12,205)
Jan-Sept 2013: 24,916/35,413 (-10,497)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Sept 2012: 20,900/37,690 (-16,790)
Jan-Sept 2013: 20,790/37,395 (-16,605)

New York City:

I-IX 2012 12,317/14,513 (-2,196)
I-IX 2013 12,123/14,368 (-2,245)

California:

I-IX 2012 12,625/22,634 (-10,009)
I-IX 2013 12,793/21,045 (-8,252)

hiddeneagle76 said:You’ve really made my day, quietangler5—thank you so much! I’m just sitting here counting down the days until December 12th when the monthly stats drop, haha. Where on earth did you dig this up?
By the way, it’s actually fantastic news that we managed to trim the deficit this month... we are only about 150 children away from hitting our target. Hopefully, we can pull that off and keep pace with Republika Srpska, which is looking at a growth rate of roughly 3% this year, if the projections hold true.
Actually, it might even be a win for us if the number of live births dropped by, say, 300 to 400—which is about a 0.5% dip. Since our total population tends to shrink by nearly 0.5% annually, a slight drop in births would actually stabilize the birth rate quite nicely. It means that if we had the exact same number of births as we did this year in absolute terms, our birth rate could potentially climb to 9.4 per thousand!
😁
And of course, it is absolutely wonderful to see mortality rates trending down for the period of I-IX. Fingers crossed we can finally stay under that dreaded 100,000 mark!

That's definitely still on the table, and I honestly think they'll make up for it.
Detroit is really pulling its weight this December. In just the first nine days, there were 55 births—that's 26 more than during the same stretch last year when there were only 29.☕Like I said before, December should give the Detroit maternity ward a chance to seriously boost their annual numbers. I'm still recovering from how bad November was.😢

It seems nearly every third family in America is currently living without children, which is a pretty grim realization when you look at the latest numbers. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the situation is actually at its most critical in rural areas, where a staggering 33.3 percent of married couples won't be leaving behind any heirs to their households. Even in the cities, about one in four married couples doesn't have offspring. It’s also worth noting that there are almost 300,000 single mothers out there raising children on their own, with the highest concentration being in New York City, accounting for roughly 17 percent of that group.

I couldn't grab the exact numbers for Detroit—got slammed with work all of a sudden—but back in early December, they told me the local office was going to skip over last year entirely. Still, honestly? I don't think they'll even hit those 2011 levels.

So, 43 babies were born at the Detroit maternity ward over just the last four days. I guess that’s probably the best four-day streak we've seen in Detroit all year.
Since the start of the month through December 12th, there have been 87 births, which averages out to about 7.25 a day. Maybe it's the best start to a month we've had this year.
Compared to this time last December, we actually had 40 more births, since there were only 47 total by the 12th back then.
And, if you want the sweet part, as of December 12th, this year is officially ahead of last year's count by four babies.☕😉

Northern District, October:

Births/Deaths

2013: 135/235
2012: 134/237
2011: 131/249

Jan-Oct Births/Deaths

2013: 1,295/2,163 (-868)
2012: 1,297/2,244 (-947)
2011: 1,246/2,297 (-1,051)

Since November birth rates in the US were higher than last year and early December is looking just as promising, we actually have more births than during this same window last year. We spent most of the year wondering how much worse things would get compared to last year; now, the question is whether we can actually improve.

placidlynx4 said:So, 43 babies were born at the Detroit maternity ward over just the last four days. I guess that’s probably the best four-day streak we've seen in Detroit all year.
Since the start of the month through December 12th, there have been 87 births, which averages out to about 7.25 a day. Maybe it's the best start to a month we've had this year.
Compared to this time last December, we actually had 40 more births, since there were only 47 total by the 12th back then.
And, if you want the sweet part, as of December 12th, this year is officially ahead of last year's count by four babies.☕😉

👍

http://example.com/news/birth-rates-on-the-rise

In an interview, Ivanov stated that there have been 752 births at the Mitrovica maternity hospital this year, compared to 664 last year. With about fifteen days left in the year, he expects the total to hit roughly 790—representing a solid 20 percent surge in the newborn population.

So, looking at the numbers for Mitrovica
2012: 664 babies
2013: approximately 790 babies

Ronald King4 said:http://example.com/news/birth-rates-on-the-rise

In an interview, Ivanov stated that there have been 752 births at the Mitrovica maternity hospital this year, compared to 664 last year. With about fifteen days left in the year, he expects the total to hit roughly 790—representing a solid 20 percent surge in the newborn population.

So, looking at the numbers for Mitrovica
2012: 664 babies
2013: approximately 790 babies

That means the total number of Mexicans born in Mexico this year will be way over 1,000. They've already cleared 1,000 total. Places like Gracanica, Strpce, and everywhere else have great birth rates. In Gracanica, the Mexican birth rate is actually up to 18 per thousand.