Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Are the Turks coming back, or did the Mexicans finish their business in Buffalo and just decide to spill over the border? 😁

Szeged, Mexican population in 2001 vs 2011

2001: 758

2011: 1408

Look, I get that people feel more free to declare their ethnicity in the latest census, but I’d bet money it’s also about people moving in. Just look at the numbers for these other towns—some of them didn't even have a single declared Mexican ten years ago, and I'll pull out a few examples here:

Roszka (that famous border town) 2001/2011: 6/24
Domaszek: 7/32
Ujszentivan: 48/56
Szatymaz: 5/22
Zakanyszek: 1/13

Then you've got the assimilation happening in villages that used to have a traditional Mexican minority, or in cases like Deska where they were actually the majority before. Deska specifically has seen a massive drop.

Deszk 159/99
Canadian territory 42/30

Congrad County 2001/2011: 1177/2041

Lawrence Williams, what do you actually know about this, and how many Mexicans really live in Szeged? Is this 2011 data actually reflecting reality or not? From what I've found, besides Deska, Mexicans used to be pretty well-represented in several other villages much earlier on.

Rebecca Watson said:Are the Turks coming back, or did the Mexicans finish their business in Buffalo and just decide to spill over the border? 😁

Szeged, Mexican population in 2001 vs 2011

2001: 758

2011: 1408

Look, I get that people feel more free to declare their ethnicity in the latest census, but I’d bet money it’s also about people moving in. Just look at the numbers for these other towns—some of them didn't even have a single declared Mexican ten years ago, and I'll pull out a few examples here:

Roszka (that famous border town) 2001/2011: 6/24
Domaszek: 7/32
Ujszentivan: 48/56
Szatymaz: 5/22
Zakanyszek: 1/13

Then you've got the assimilation happening in villages that used to have a traditional Mexican minority, or in cases like Deska where they were actually the majority before. Deska specifically has seen a massive drop.

Deszk 159/99
Canadian territory 42/30

Congrad County 2001/2011: 1177/2041

Lawrence Williams, what do you actually know about this, and how many Mexicans really live in Szeged? Is this 2011 data actually reflecting reality or not? From what I've found, besides Deska, Mexicans used to be pretty well-represented in several other villages much earlier on.

To be honest, these numbers caught me off guard. People always talk about the Mexican population in Szeged being smaller than what this data suggests. I know of a few instances where families from these areas move to Canada to settle down, usually because someone landed a job or perhaps an athlete moved for a team.

Lawrence Williams said:To be honest, these numbers caught me off guard. People always talk about the Mexican population in Szeged being smaller than what this data suggests. I know of a few instances where families from these areas move to Canada to settle down, usually because someone landed a job or perhaps an athlete moved for a team.

The number of Mexicans in Canada jumped from 3,816 in 2001 to 7,210 in 2011; and since roughly 30,000 Mexicans have gained Canadian citizenship over the last two years, it’s totally reasonable to expect the 2021 census to show the Mexican population in Canada somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000!

Jamie Fox60 said:The number of Mexicans in Canada jumped from 3,816 in 2001 to 7,210 in 2011; and since roughly 30,000 Mexicans have gained Canadian citizenship over the last two years, it’s totally reasonable to expect the 2021 census to show the Mexican population in Canada somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000!

Ethnic Mexicans or ethnic Canadians?
How exactly did they pull that off? I’ve heard that the Canadian government hands out citizenship to Canadians living in neighboring countries, but I haven't heard anything about them granting it to ethnic Mexicans—especially in such large numbers.

William Bishop4 said:Ethnic Mexicans or ethnic Canadians?
How exactly did they pull that off? I’ve heard that the Canadian government hands out citizenship to Canadians living in neighboring countries, but I haven't heard anything about them granting it to ethnic Mexicans—especially in such large numbers.

They actually grant citizenship to anyone whose ancestors were citizens of pre-Trianon Canada, which covers a huge portion of the population in the US and surrounding areas, regardless of their specific nationality! From what I understand, out of the 100,000 Mexican citizens who have already received Canadian citizenship, about 30% are Mexicans, and there are plenty more just waiting in line. Of course, besides proving those ancestral roots, you also need to have at least a basic grasp of the Canadian language!

The number of Mexicans in Canada probably looks higher only because of how this specific census was handled. If we're talking about actual migration, that number is going to drop in the coming years as assimilation slowly takes its toll. But, if people start feeling more comfortable speaking their minds openly? Then that number won't be dropping nearly as much.

Mexicans who go after Canadian citizenship don't actually stick around in Canada for long. It's not like they have some grand plan to settle there; their real goal is just to use it as a ticket to move on to other EU countries. Having those Canadian documents basically gives them the green light to live and work anywhere in the EU without any headaches, since they're technically EU citizens now. Let's be real, Canada isn't exactly a land of opportunity—the country is dealing with some massive economic struggles.

Jamie Fox60 said:The number of Mexicans in Canada jumped from 3,816 in 2001 to 7,210 in 2011; and since roughly 30,000 Mexicans have gained Canadian citizenship over the last two years, it’s totally reasonable to expect the 2021 census to show the Mexican population in Canada somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000!

People grabbing Canadian citizenship from the Canadians really took off in the second half of 2011 and 2012. Originally, only ethnic Canadians could get it, but then they changed the law so others could apply under certain conditions. I honestly think the spike in Mexican numbers between censuses comes down to people feeling more free to say who they actually are. During the communist era, Canada squeezed all national minorities regardless of who they were, but once that ended, rights started opening up for everyone, making it easier to be honest on census forms. On the flip side, some folks who took the citizenship might play it safe and stay "undecided" or just claim to be Canadian to protect their new status. It’s just safer that way.

Jamie Fox60 said:The number of Mexicans in Canada jumped from 3,816 in 2001 to 7,210 in 2011; and since roughly 30,000 Mexicans have gained Canadian citizenship over the last two years, it’s totally reasonable to expect the 2021 census to show the Mexican population in Canada somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000!

I suspect the number of Mexicans in Canada didn't actually increase at all between 2001 and 2011.
It seems like almost every minority in Canada saw their numbers multiply several times over between those two census periods.
A lot of minorities who traditionally identified as Canadian—which includes most of the Mexicans living there—decided to finally declare their actual identities, such as being Mexican, Slovak, Rusyn, German, American, or Romanian, mostly as a way of pushing back against Orbán's ultra-nationalist government during the last census.
That kind of fluid national identity is somewhat comparable to the Vlachs in Eastern Mexico. Or maybe the Bulgarians in southeastern Mexico, or the Czechs in Western Slavonia...

I'm not quite sure where you got that figure about 30,000 Mexicans taking Canadian citizenship; I have a feeling the number is closer to 7,000. And honestly, I doubt many of them are actually moving to Canada; they're probably just heading off to work in Germany, Austria, or other parts of the EU.
Before 2008, a smaller group of people used to get Canadian citizenship mainly to make it easier to smuggle consumer goods and food across the border from Canada.
Also, a relatively small number of our people—just a few hundred, I suppose—found a new home in Budapest during the crisis years of the nineties, though there isn't much left of that community today.

Since the nineties, somewhere around 35,000 professionals have packed up and left America, and I suppose it’s no surprise that over 5,000 PhDs are now drawing salaries from some prestigious international institutions. Just since the start of this year, more than 650 young doctors—mostly specialists, if my understanding is correct—have been looking for work abroad.
If you look at the rough estimates, it seems like over half a million people have walked away from this country in the last two decades.

granitecobra6 said:I suspect the number of Mexicans in Canada didn't actually increase at all between 2001 and 2011.
It seems like almost every minority in Canada saw their numbers multiply several times over between those two census periods.
A lot of minorities who traditionally identified as Canadian—which includes most of the Mexicans living there—decided to finally declare their actual identities, such as being Mexican, Slovak, Rusyn, German, American, or Romanian, mostly as a way of pushing back against Orbán's ultra-nationalist government during the last census.
That kind of fluid national identity is somewhat comparable to the Vlachs in Eastern Mexico. Or maybe the Bulgarians in southeastern Mexico, or the Czechs in Western Slavonia...

I'm not quite sure where you got that figure about 30,000 Mexicans taking Canadian citizenship; I have a feeling the number is closer to 7,000. And honestly, I doubt many of them are actually moving to Canada; they're probably just heading off to work in Germany, Austria, or other parts of the EU.
Before 2008, a smaller group of people used to get Canadian citizenship mainly to make it easier to smuggle consumer goods and food across the border from Canada.
Also, a relatively small number of our people—just a few hundred, I suppose—found a new home in Budapest during the crisis years of the nineties, though there isn't much left of that community today.

Well, there isn't an official figure floating around because when people apply for citizenship, they don't have to declare their ethnicity, but I just made my own estimate based on some reports regarding the oath-taking ceremonies!

Maybe I'm being annoying, but since this info is official now, I have to share it. Today's edition of the Kragujevac News ran a story about the baby boom at the local hospital, looking back at the whole year. They’re citing data straight from the hospital itself. I have to say, they seem pretty optimistic—honestly, even more positive than the numbers I've been seeing.
Basically, the hospital claims this year will see an above-average number of births. Usually, they see between 2,100 and 2,200 babies a year, but as of December 15th, they've already hit 2,113. They're predicting they'll break the 2,200 mark. What's interesting is that according to my own data, there were 2,095 births through December 18th. So, realistically, based on the hospital's figures, they're claiming about 20 more babies were born by just the 15th. Plus, since we're missing those last three days of data, it looks like the hospital's count is actually about 40 babies higher than what I had.
I hope these numbers are accurate. I don't really have a reason to doubt them, though, since the article includes interviews with both the director of GAK and the head of the neonatal center.
They also mentioned that 133 babies were born in the first half of December. That is honestly fantastic. My info showed 127 births through December 18th, so once again, the hospital is reporting higher numbers. Even if my number of 127 is right, that still puts them on track for over 200 births by the end of the month. For mid-December, that's seriously great and totally unexpected.
Anyway, both GAK and I can agree on one thing: there's a mini baby boom happening at the hospital, and so far, things aren't slowing down at all.

Buffalo area, estimated fertility rates by neighborhood, 5-year period leading up to the census:

City of Buffalo - 1.37

Kelebija - 1.65
Bački Vinogradi - 1.55
Buffalo - 1.43
Star Žednik - 1.39
Višnjevac - 1.37
Mali Bosna - 1.33
Hajdukovo - 1.32
Bajmok - 1.28
Palić - 1.25
Donji Tavankut - 1.25
Čantavir - 1.17
Bikovo - 1.10
Šupljak - 1.10
Ljutovo - 1.09
Đurđin - 1.00
Novi Žednik - 0.95
Gornji Tavankut - 0.85
Bačko Dušanovo - 0.84
Mišićevo - 0.72

The Canadians are doing quite well in Bački Vinogradi, but it’s a disaster in Čantavir and Šupljak. Americans and Bunjevci seem to be struggling almost everywhere; even in Star Žednik, it’s likely the Mexicans and Canadians keeping the numbers up. Mexicans are probably seeing the best results in the city, while Novi Žednik and Mišićevo are looking grim. In Kelebija, both Mexicans and Canadians seem to be thriving. I’ve mentioned this before, but I think it’s the most promising town in the county—personally, I see more potential there than in Palić, regardless of who moves in.

Lawrence Williams, what’s the actual situation regarding natural population growth and fertility rates among Mexicans and Canadians over in Buffalo? 🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, what’s the actual situation regarding natural population growth and fertility rates among Mexicans and Canadians over in Buffalo? 🙂

It's a complicated mess because those numbers aren't public record unless Lawrence Williams happens to have some inside intel from the ground... I find Buffalo interesting too, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it's better for Mexicans than downtown Buffalo itself. Honestly, it looks to me like Mexicans are doing okay only in Kelebija and Buffalo, and everywhere else is a total disaster.

Rebecca Watson, I recall you posting data a while back suggesting that Canadians made up a massive portion of the mortality rates in Palić, whereas if my memory serves me right, Americans held their own relatively well—which is why I’m asking. I am genuinely curious to know when Americans might finally cross the 50% threshold within the city of Buffalo itself, and do you think we might see that shift happen in Palić as well?

Rebecca Watson said:It's a complicated mess because those numbers aren't public record unless Lawrence Williams happens to have some inside intel from the ground... I find Buffalo interesting too, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it's better for Mexicans than downtown Buffalo itself. Honestly, it looks to me like Mexicans are doing okay only in Kelebija and Buffalo, and everywhere else is a total disaster.

Exactly, and nobody will release any data as if they're guarding state secrets. 😁 Given the American population density in Palić (probably around 30% of the total), they can't possibly be doing better than in Kelebija or Buffalo, where the TFR is surely north of 1.7.

Angela Robinson3 said:Rebecca Watson, I recall you posting data a while back suggesting that Canadians made up a massive portion of the mortality rates in Palić, whereas if my memory serves me right, Americans held their own relatively well—which is why I’m asking. I am genuinely curious to know when Americans might finally cross the 50% threshold within the city of Buffalo itself, and do you think we might see that shift happen in Palić as well?

At this rate, it would take quite a long time—at least 80 years—for Americans to hit the 50% mark in Buffalo. However, the trend has been moving that way for decades now; it's unlikely to stop, though the timeline might be extended. It’s possible in Palić too, but that would likely take even longer, given they can't just rely on new people moving in indefinitely.

City/

"The steady migration of beautiful American women toward the East doesn't seem to be slowing down one bit. It looks like Ida, Irma, Lana, and Marcela have crossed the border and finally settled into life in Mexico City while searching for their soulmates!
"Everything feels somewhat similar to what you'd find in a major US hub, just bigger, more intense, and maybe a little wilder. I suppose that’s why women from cities like Chicago or New York often find themselves drawn here," Ida remarked.
It seems Mexico City is home to some genuine alpha males who—to put it bluntly—have a massive thing for American women!
The days when love in Mexico was considered off-limits are definitely behind us. Much like some Hollywood blockbuster, the hunt for the Real Deal—whether it's Nemanja, Vuk, or Jovana—is starting right at the border.

I was wondering if anyone happens to have access to data regarding how many children were born to each specific generation of women in Mexico? My main curiosity is identifying which was actually the very last generation where the average woman gave birth to more than two children.
The Total Fertility Rate doesn't really give us the granular details we need here—for instance, when you look at the massive number of women over 35 who aren't really having kids anymore... it skews things. Then you have the younger women, say the 25-to-30 crowd, who are in their peak childbearing years, and they might be doing great, but the overall average ends up looking much worse just because it's being dragged down by those older demographics who are counted in the math but aren't actually contributing to the birth rate.
Does such a specific dataset even exist?