Gold: Past, Present, and Future

quiettrucker12 said:They're all commodities. Goldman Sachs has been riding this wave for 12 years now. This whole manipulation talk always finds a home in silver because the silver market is tiny—it’s actually possible to move the needle there. Most people realize the gold market is massive, so they're more careful about peddling those nonsense theories. Now, your theory suggests someone manipulates silver to somehow control the price of gold and commodities in general through this tiny, microscopic market. That sounds like something you picked up from reading too much ZeroHedge.

The smart money sold in late April. They knew that parabolic moves stretching way above the 200-day moving average are a trap. Plenty of traders were looking for an exit but waited for "just a little more," and things would have absolutely cratered at $55 or $60 if silver hadn't hit roughly $50 an ounce first.

For anyone who needs a refresher, here is the silver chart from 2011:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01700166996

You can clearly see how silver went parabolic and stretched far beyond its 200-day line. Those kinds of blow-off tops are the biggest danger to any bull market. The best way for a bull market to stay healthy and go high is to avoid going parabolic in the first place. So, if we're talking about manipulation, the real "rigging" would be forcing a parabolic spike, not the subsequent crash. That's Trader 101. Pullbacks that don't turn into full-blown parables (like what we're seeing in gold right now) are actually great for a bull market. If luck is on our side, we might see another major correction like this in two years, followed by one final surge toward the end of the decade that ends in a terminal parabola. Eventually, people will decide other things—like stocks—have become cheap, and they'll rotate out of expensive commodities into something else. That's just how the cycle works.

Exactly... in a healthy bull market, buying the dips is a winning play. But if you aren't already positioned when the stampede starts, you're smarter off waiting, switching to contrarian mode, and looking for a reversal or at least a deeper pullback.

Fundamentals matter in the long run, sure. But when it comes to actual trading, current psychology and market sentiment are everything. And those can be extremely, extremely irrational.🙂

Dropping some silver intel here 🙂

Quick breakdown of what's moving in the markets

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulVsS...ayer_embedded#!

The $1.2 billion Chinese stimulus package...

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/w...mmon+Wisdom%29

Hey quiettrucker12, what kind of commodity is gold, really? Is it being consumed? No, most of it is just sitting there as jewelry or held as currency.
It’s been used as money for thousands of years.
The issue isn't that silver is theoretically manipulated; it's being manipulated in practice every single day, and the evidence is everywhere. Unless you actually believe it's normal to sell more silver than exists on the entire planet—selling short at the level of total annual production—but I guess the rules of physics don't apply to paper trading.
What traders? What amateurs? In a world run by Citadel and algorithms, human traders are basically just statistical errors. That chart you posted just proves it wasn't people selling that silver, but computers (just look at that insane volume spike in such a tiny window).
And you're missing the bigger picture. We're living through a complete shift in how "investing" works. It should be obvious that you don't stand a chance against machines; it takes literally one second to get wiped out. The final parabolic move? When the dollar and the euro hit zero, people will be scrambling to buy gold, silver, land, and guns, while trillions in paper and digital zeros become worthless overnight. 🙂
At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is knowing how to actually do something useful. 😉 I suspect traders (along with lawyers and managers) will be the first victims of natural selection. 🙂

Oh sure, because having nothing but a workers' council calling all the shots is such a brilliant idea.

vividgull10 said:There's zero euphoria here. I haven't bet on a single investment instrument, nor does it cross my mind to defend one. An investment is only as good as the cash it puts in your pocket. Period.

Based on what I'm seeing right now, my take is that it's a solid investment (talking about physical gold and silver; I trade "paper" assets less frequently). I could be dead wrong.
I'm currently short on silver (not physical, obviously), but long-term, I think being long is a smart move.

As for the general public... just for the sake of discussion, without trying to convince anyone: if this is the peak, look around. How many people do you actually see selling off their gold right now? Do you really think someone orchestrated things so that the average person sells at the absolute top? (Rhetorical question.)

PS.
No reason to feel like an idiot... we're just talking. 😉

If there is euphoria, it exists in the sense that there are millions of advertisements, billboards, newspaper spreads, TV spots, and even ads appearing right here on this forum.
I see you were particularly moved by that recent BlackRock commercial featuring those two hens, where one advises, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." A classic proverb, indeed.

As for how much gold the public is actually selling, I honestly have no feel for it. Given this aggressive advertising blitz, one might conclude that the average American has already liquidated their holdings and that there isn't much buyback activity happening...
Is that what you meant?

Anthony Evans78 said:Hey quiettrucker12, what kind of commodity is gold, really? Is it being consumed? No, most of it is just sitting there as jewelry or held as currency.
It’s been used as money for thousands of years.
The issue isn't that silver is theoretically manipulated; it's being manipulated in practice every single day, and the evidence is everywhere. Unless you actually believe it's normal to sell more silver than exists on the entire planet—selling short at the level of total annual production—but I guess the rules of physics don't apply to paper trading.
What traders? What amateurs? In a world run by Citadel and algorithms, human traders are basically just statistical errors. That chart you posted just proves it wasn't people selling that silver, but computers (just look at that insane volume spike in such a tiny window).
And you're missing the bigger picture. We're living through a complete shift in how "investing" works. It should be obvious that you don't stand a chance against machines; it takes literally one second to get wiped out. The final parabolic move? When the dollar and the euro hit zero, people will be scrambling to buy gold, silver, land, and guns, while trillions in paper and digital zeros become worthless overnight. 🙂
At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is knowing how to actually do something useful. 😉 I suspect traders (along with lawyers and managers) will be the first victims of natural selection. 🙂

I agree with this 100 percent. While this would represent a worst-case scenario,
realistically, I hope it remains impossible. One wonders who would benefit—perhaps a psychopath or a religious fanatic?
It is far more efficient to simply keep "the public" under control; trigger a crisis here and there to remind everyone who is in charge, and that is that.

Official figures claim—though I've seen the reality firsthand—that three tons of gold were exported from the US last year.
God knows how much more slipped out the back door through other means.

Anthony Evans78 said:Hey quiettrucker12, what kind of commodity is gold, really? Is it being consumed? No, most of it is just sitting there as jewelry or held as currency.
It’s been used as money for thousands of years.
The issue isn't that silver is theoretically manipulated; it's being manipulated in practice every single day, and the evidence is everywhere. Unless you actually believe it's normal to sell more silver than exists on the entire planet—selling short at the level of total annual production—but I guess the rules of physics don't apply to paper trading.
What traders? What amateurs? In a world run by Citadel and algorithms, human traders are basically just statistical errors. That chart you posted just proves it wasn't people selling that silver, but computers (just look at that insane volume spike in such a tiny window).
And you're missing the bigger picture. We're living through a complete shift in how "investing" works. It should be obvious that you don't stand a chance against machines; it takes literally one second to get wiped out. The final parabolic move? When the dollar and the euro hit zero, people will be scrambling to buy gold, silver, land, and guns, while trillions in paper and digital zeros become worthless overnight. 🙂
At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is knowing how to actually do something useful. 😉 I suspect traders (along with lawyers and managers) will be the first victims of natural selection. 🙂

If that scenario plays out, people will be forced to trade food, canned goods, land, water, silver, gold, and ammunition just to survive—all so those who are bragging today can afford their basic needs later... the real question is whether there will even be anything left to trade.
I highly doubt anyone will be accepting fancy paper certificates from the CME Group or the NYSE. 😂

Heh! I’m calling it now: we’re going short on tomatoes and long on bell peppers!
I mean, I track the market, but honestly, I think most retail traders are just puppets for the big players. It gets especially tricky with gold since half of it is tied up in jewelry—it can turn into bullion in a heartbeat if things shift.

analogharbor44 said:Heh! I’m calling it now: we’re going short on tomatoes and long on bell peppers!
I mean, I track the market, but honestly, I think most retail traders are just puppets for the big players. It gets especially tricky with gold since half of it is tied up in jewelry—it can turn into bullion in a heartbeat if things shift.

I’m really not following your logic here 🤷

Why on earth would someone turn jewelry into bullion, and why should that even be an issue?
A huge chunk of that gold you're talking about comes from places like India and China, where people buy jewelry as a way to store value, much like we buy bullion bars.
To them, jewelry *is* bullion. Besides, they mostly deal in 21-karat gold over there, which is basically identical to something like a 22-karat Goldman Sachs bar.

Everyone knows the karat count and what that gold is worth in US Dollars.
At the end of the day, you'll get the exact same amount of cash whether you're selling jewelry or pure bullion.
The only catch is that when you bought the jewelry, you paid a premium for the craftsmanship, so you'll naturally walk away with less than you originally spent when you sell it back.

You're overthinking this one a bit.

rapidranger54 said:If there is euphoria, it exists in the sense that there are millions of advertisements, billboards, newspaper spreads, TV spots, and even ads appearing right here on this forum.
I see you were particularly moved by that recent BlackRock commercial featuring those two hens, where one advises, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." A classic proverb, indeed.

As for how much gold the public is actually selling, I honestly have no feel for it. Given this aggressive advertising blitz, one might conclude that the average American has already liquidated their holdings and that there isn't much buyback activity happening...
Is that what you meant?

I was thinking about how we've seen a massive surge in gold and silver buyback shops over the last couple of years. The fact that they're operating means one thing: they're buying low so they can sell high. The guy buying from them isn't waiting for a dip. In plain English, it's unlikely we're at the peak if everyone is busy buying up everything from the public.

just my 2 cents

The CEO of Agnico is weighing in on gold prices—he’s forecasting $3,000 per ounce if China ($1.2 trillion) joins the US and the European Union in pushing major stimulus measures.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/29_Agnico_CEO_Warns_Gold_To_Hit_$3,000_On_Supply_C oncerns.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsen ews

By the way—Morgan Stanley is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.
http://sgtreport.com/2012/08/jim-wil...urce=pulsenews

The gold buyout shop network is expanding all over San Francisco

Neighborhood news

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/math-b...h-gold-outlets

Greece and Portugal are starting to shut those places down—mostly because everyone already liquidated their family heirlooms and moved on.

So much for the bond "market."
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4...s-10-year-note

A few technical breakdowns regarding gold, sourced from respected analysts...😍

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/2012083.html

keep an eye on this mess with the IMF

Terrible 🙂
What absolute idiots 🙂

Selling gold to fight poverty? Who in their right mind actually thinks that's a thing?

vividgull10 said:I was thinking about how we've seen a massive surge in gold and silver buyback shops over the last couple of years. The fact that they're operating means one thing: they're buying low so they can sell high. The guy buying from them isn't waiting for a dip. In plain English, it's unlikely we're at the peak if everyone is busy buying up everything from the public.

just my 2 cents

Yes, it truly is madness. Try opening a storefront like that and you'll quickly realize the overhead involved. They operate around the clock—you need at least two employees, plus electricity, water, and all the rest. And they don't even have much insurance; they get robbed quite often, yet they just shrug it off and keep going. You have to respect the hustle; clearly, the margins are there. It’s impressive, really. But I suspect we are nearing the end of this cycle. The entity driving this massive demand and cashing out on these buybacks is likely getting tired. Once they stop buying, price inertia might carry things up briefly, followed by a sharp correction. At least, that is my view.