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Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Started by Melissa Sanchez17 · · 👁 100 views · 3K replies

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Participants Melissa Sanchez17dustyheron5quiettrucker12Anthony Evans78Sean Carteranalogharbor44feralpuma12ironstag8Amanda Carter7lonehawk5briskjackal5Andrew Barrett4Dennis Fisher5granitegull51Zachary Mendoza2Christian Miller14neondriver5George Sullivan902nimblepanther18Jerry Wright6Patrick Moore3wearygull4Taylor Robinson51wearyotter36 …
dustyheron5 dustyheron5 Regular
353 messages
joined Nov 2015
#921 ·
It’s certainly not as if the esteemed Morgan Stanley is planning to abandon us forever...

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...utor=Thanksgiving

I just hope you're all being careful about who you choose to work for out there.
vividgull10 vividgull10 Active Member
133 messages
joined Oct 2018
#922 ·
Hey everyone

I've been lurking here for a bit because I think it's high time people stop overlooking this type of investment.
Personally, I’m leaning toward silver right now. Even if I'm looking at the long haul—mostly just to preserve value—I doubt you can go wrong picking either silver or gold.

The real headache is the state of precious metals here in the States. I still need to figure out the simplest, cheapest way to start building a stash. There's info everywhere, but since I don't personally know anyone who actually deals with this stuff, I'm pretty skeptical of every corner shop claiming they "work with gold." This is our money and our future we're talking about.

As for prices and what's coming next, I don't have much of a dilemma. If you strip away the speculation, investing in precious metals is my most reliable bet for the long term (assuming you accept that nothing is 100% certain). All I need to do is track two things: the US Dollar money supply and gold prices. In my opinion, the crisis of faith in fiat currency is right around the corner.
rapidranger54 rapidranger54 Member
17 messages
joined May 2023
#923 ·
vividgull10 said:Hey everyone

I've been lurking here for a bit because I think it's high time people stop overlooking this type of investment.
Personally, I’m leaning toward silver right now. Even if I'm looking at the long haul—mostly just to preserve value—I doubt you can go wrong picking either silver or gold.

The real headache is the state of precious metals here in the States. I still need to figure out the simplest, cheapest way to start building a stash. There's info everywhere, but since I don't personally know anyone who actually deals with this stuff, I'm pretty skeptical of every corner shop claiming they "work with gold." This is our money and our future we're talking about.

As for prices and what's coming next, I don't have much of a dilemma. If you strip away the speculation, investing in precious metals is my most reliable bet for the long term (assuming you accept that nothing is 100% certain). All I need to do is track two things: the US Dollar money supply and gold prices. In my opinion, the crisis of faith in fiat currency is right around the corner.

I will likely look like a fool in your eyes once the gold euphoria hits—that inevitable boom and all that—but to me, it feels far too much like the real estate bubble from ten years ago...
gold is just metal...if you want something durable that won't rust, there's aluminum or stainless steel...just kidding.
to me, this looks like yet another mechanism to siphon money from the public through the media and the banks, all designed to enrich a select few...
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#924 ·
It looks like both gold and the stock market have stopped caring about how weak the US Dollar is. That tells me the Greenback is either bottomed out or right on the edge. The Euro has hit its trendline, and if Ben doesn't cook up some QE—or maybe some supercharged turbo QE—by Friday, I think the Euro is going to slip. If that happens, we’re looking at a final two-month sprint for the Dollar. Such a move would likely trigger a massive autumn sell-off in everything except the USD. Any rally in precious metals coming later in October would look like a total hurricane compared to the little scraps we've seen lately.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#925 ·
rapidranger54 said:I will likely look like a fool in your eyes once the gold euphoria hits—that inevitable boom and all that—but to me, it feels far too much like the real estate bubble from ten years ago...
gold is just metal...if you want something durable that won't rust, there's aluminum or stainless steel...just kidding.
to me, this looks like yet another mechanism to siphon money from the public through the media and the banks, all designed to enrich a select few...

The Bull market hasn't hit the average person yet. Right now, we're in the phase where they're squeezing gold out of people through various buyback programs. Of course, by the final stage, the "little guy" will get burned again because they'll be buying at the absolute peak after selling everything while it was still cheap.
vividgull10 vividgull10 Active Member
133 messages
joined Oct 2018
#926 ·
rapidranger54 said:I will likely look like a fool in your eyes once the gold euphoria hits—that inevitable boom and all that—but to me, it feels far too much like the real estate bubble from ten years ago...
gold is just metal...if you want something durable that won't rust, there's aluminum or stainless steel...just kidding.
to me, this looks like yet another mechanism to siphon money from the public through the media and the banks, all designed to enrich a select few...

There's zero euphoria here. I haven't bet on a single investment instrument, nor does it cross my mind to defend one. An investment is only as good as the cash it puts in your pocket. Period.

Based on what I'm seeing right now, my take is that it's a solid investment (talking about physical gold and silver; I trade "paper" assets less frequently). I could be dead wrong.
I'm currently short on silver (not physical, obviously), but long-term, I think being long is a smart move.

As for the general public... just for the sake of discussion, without trying to convince anyone: if this is the peak, look around. How many people do you actually see selling off their gold right now? Do you really think someone orchestrated things so that the average person sells at the absolute top? (Rhetorical question.)

PS.
No reason to feel like an idiot... we're just talking. 😉
vividgull10 vividgull10 Active Member
133 messages
joined Oct 2018
#927 ·
quiettrucker12 said:The Bull market hasn't hit the average person yet. Right now, we're in the phase where they're squeezing gold out of people through various buyback programs. Of course, by the final stage, the "little guy" will get burned again because they'll be buying at the absolute peak after selling everything while it was still cheap.

Exactly... the average person is stuck in a brutal bear market.
rapidranger54 rapidranger54 Member
17 messages
joined May 2023
#928 ·
quiettrucker12 said:The Bull market hasn't hit the average person yet. Right now, we're in the phase where they're squeezing gold out of people through various buyback programs. Of course, by the final stage, the "little guy" will get burned again because they'll be buying at the absolute peak after selling everything while it was still cheap.

Well said. A very polished sentiment.
I can't help but wonder what the price of gold would look like if, heaven forbid, Israel and Iran actually went at it—oil hitting $300 per barrel, total economic collapse, and all that. At that point, I suspect the biggest winners wouldn't be investors, but rather some grandmother out in rural Montana with a cellar full of potatoes and a couple of sheep in her barn...
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#929 ·
rapidranger54 said:Well said. A very polished sentiment.
I can't help but wonder what the price of gold would look like if, heaven forbid, Israel and Iran actually went at it—oil hitting $300 per barrel, total economic collapse, and all that. At that point, I suspect the biggest winners wouldn't be investors, but rather some grandmother out in rural Montana with a cellar full of potatoes and a couple of sheep in her barn...

Unfortunately for "grandma," the European Union has already "taken care" of her too. Look, we've been in a commodity bull market for 12 years now, so oil hitting $300 isn't even that crazy. Moving from $100 to $300 is "only" a 3x jump, whereas the climb from $12 back in '99 to where we are at $96 was an 8x move.

Check the oil: http://alhambrainvestments.com/wp-co...-long-term.png
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#930 ·
quiettrucker12 said:It looks like both gold and the stock market have stopped caring about how weak the US Dollar is. That tells me the Greenback is either bottomed out or right on the edge. The Euro has hit its trendline, and if Ben doesn't cook up some QE—or maybe some supercharged turbo QE—by Friday, I think the Euro is going to slip. If that happens, we’re looking at a final two-month sprint for the Dollar. Such a move would likely trigger a massive autumn sell-off in everything except the USD. Any rally in precious metals coming later in October would look like a total hurricane compared to the little scraps we've seen lately.

If you ask me, there's no "up" movement in metals before the election, only after. And let's be real—there won't be any announcement about new QE this Friday. It'll just be more spins and those same phrases they've been recycling for almost a year now.
Gold could easily slide to 1620 or even lower. But the QE that's actually supposed to roll out next year? In my opinion, that's going to be epic in scale.

EDIT regarding silver: Word on the street—and I'm just repeating what I've heard—is that JPM is having massive issues with their shorts, so...
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#931 ·
Is gold just a metal? 🙂
And what about money over the last few millennia? 🙂
Irony aside, we’re nowhere near the kind of mania we saw with gold and silver—especially silver.
It has nothing to do with real estate, either. Real estate was just your classic bubble where people thought they were geniuses buying homes way beyond their means, only to get crushed by interest rates (looking at you, Swiss Franc loans). Not to mention everyone assumed property values would just climb toward the stratosphere forever. 🙂
Even without major wars, oil prices climb, and if the Middle East catches fire again, we're all in trouble...
One more thing: JPM has been struggling with shorts for a few months now. 😉 Last time they were in this much trouble was about a year ago when silver spiked toward $50... 🙂
Melissa Sanchez17 Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP
359 messages
joined Feb 2019
#932 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:Is gold just a metal? 🙂
And what about money over the last few millennia? 🙂
Irony aside, we’re nowhere near the kind of mania we saw with gold and silver—especially silver.
It has nothing to do with real estate, either. Real estate was just your classic bubble where people thought they were geniuses buying homes way beyond their means, only to get crushed by interest rates (looking at you, Swiss Franc loans). Not to mention everyone assumed property values would just climb toward the stratosphere forever. 🙂
Even without major wars, oil prices climb, and if the Middle East catches fire again, we're all in trouble...
One more thing: JPM has been struggling with shorts for a few months now. 😉 Last time they were in this much trouble was about a year ago when silver spiked toward $50... 🙂

ltInvestments just dropped an interview with ‘Turd’ over at TFMetalsReport.
Trump states He expects The Bernanke to disappoint Friday AT Jackson Hole , and The Cartel MO of raiding The metals on Bernanke speeches to continue. He states The HUGE RISES in The cartel short positions in Gold and silver warrant caution on Friday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=6yyJI92OaeE
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#933 ·
It’s honestly mind-blowing how many people are obsessed with the idea that the biggest investment institutions on Wall Street are somehow too incompetent to realize they're shorting the greatest Wall Street run in history—a run that’s already been going for 12 years. This whole manipulation conspiracy theory fits perfectly into the playbook for those "analysts" online; it gives them a built-in excuse whenever their predictions fail. Sure, there’s manipulation in every market at certain stages—big players nudging prices or algorithms hunting retail stop-losses—but being obsessed with downward manipulation in an uptrend that has lasted 12 years is just absurd.

Let me say it again: if Franjo acts as an analyst and predicts things will go up (which they have for 12 years straight), then if they don't go up, he just blames "manipulation" so he isn't wrong.

If you look at charts from other similar Wall Street runs that lasted about 15 years (and by the way, this one looks like it'll blow past 15), you'll see corrections that look almost identical to what we're seeing now. The whole "point" of these massive corrections is to reset investor sentiment—basically to convince everyone that the Wall Street run is over. That’s why even smart people on this forum right now think the party is finished. It’s a classic battle of emotion versus knowledge.
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#934 ·
And that's actually pretty easy to pull off.
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#935 ·
How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#936 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

And what about oil? Or any other commodity? Why is gold the standard but oil isn't? Just look at the oil chart I posted earlier.

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

?????? I'm lost... what does "out of thin air" even mean in this context? 🤷😁

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

Gold is a commodity. Are all the other commodities, like oil, which have climbed just as much over the last 12 years, considered "money" too?

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

You think there's no reason. Any asset that stretches too far in one direction eventually snaps back the other way... especially when it hits the 200-day moving average.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64147976269

Look at how everything plays out near the 200 DMA. Back during 9/11, once it broke above the 200-day average, we saw a similar move in the opposite direction. These are just pressure valves; that's how bull markets work. It's not magic. Plus, that's how bull markets function until they go parabolic—like silver did in May 2011. Silver took forever to recover after that crash. Honestly, it's just easier to swallow some manipulation conspiracy theory everyone loves to talk about. You can't eat a conspiracy theory. Silver is primed for the next chapter, whether that starts right now (depending on the Fed) or, if I had to guess, in about two months.
wearyotter36 wearyotter36 Member
29 messages
joined Mar 2014
#937 ·
quiettrucker12 said:It’s honestly mind-blowing how many people are obsessed with the idea that the biggest investment institutions on Wall Street are somehow too incompetent to realize they're shorting the greatest Wall Street run in history—a run that’s already been going for 12 years. This whole manipulation conspiracy theory fits perfectly into the playbook for those "analysts" online; it gives them a built-in excuse whenever their predictions fail. Sure, there’s manipulation in every market at certain stages—big players nudging prices or algorithms hunting retail stop-losses—but being obsessed with downward manipulation in an uptrend that has lasted 12 years is just absurd.

Let me say it again: if Franjo acts as an analyst and predicts things will go up (which they have for 12 years straight), then if they don't go up, he just blames "manipulation" so he isn't wrong.

If you look at charts from other similar Wall Street runs that lasted about 15 years (and by the way, this one looks like it'll blow past 15), you'll see corrections that look almost identical to what we're seeing now. The whole "point" of these massive corrections is to reset investor sentiment—basically to convince everyone that the Wall Street run is over. That’s why even smart people on this forum right now think the party is finished. It’s a classic battle of emotion versus knowledge.

Trimmed it down to get to the point.
couldn't agree more
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#938 ·
Gold is money, whereas oil is just a commodity.
Is that concept really that hard to wrap your head around?
To put it simply: since modern currencies are printed out of thin air in practically limitless amounts, their value is basically negligible. But if you want to maintain the illusion that they actually mean something, you have to attack the one thing that reflects their true worth.
Since you still don't get that gold is money, there's no point in me talking to you. Like I've said a thousand times, go educate yourself on why gold counts as money while oil doesn't.
Silver didn't crash; the price was intentionally crushed. Who do you think dumped hundreds of millions of ounces back in late April and again in September? PHYSICAL silver? Nobody, obviously, because no one actually had it to sell. The paper price dictates the physical market, which is how you can dump hundreds of millions of paper ounces just to tank the price.
vividgull10 vividgull10 Active Member
133 messages
joined Oct 2018
#939 ·
Look, it's not really about "money" in the traditional sense.
It definitely has a history as a store of value. When you factor in its scarcity and durability, you get the main reasons why people treat it as a safe haven.

As for the actual value of the dollar, anything you buy with cash effectively tracks how much that cash is losing its punch. That’s basically what the annual inflation rate is measuring. You don't need to look at gold to understand that specific metric.

But when it comes to tradition—specifically being widely accepted as a fundamental medium of exchange—gold and oil aren't in the same league. After all, oil has been around for maybe a century, while gold has been doing this for thousands of years.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#940 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:Gold is money, whereas oil is just a commodity.
Is that concept really that hard to wrap your head around?
To put it simply: since modern currencies are printed out of thin air in practically limitless amounts, their value is basically negligible. But if you want to maintain the illusion that they actually mean something, you have to attack the one thing that reflects their true worth.
Since you still don't get that gold is money, there's no point in me talking to you. Like I've said a thousand times, go educate yourself on why gold counts as money while oil doesn't.
Silver didn't crash; the price was intentionally crushed. Who do you think dumped hundreds of millions of ounces back in late April and again in September? PHYSICAL silver? Nobody, obviously, because no one actually had it to sell. The paper price dictates the physical market, which is how you can dump hundreds of millions of paper ounces just to tank the price.

They're all commodities. Goldman Sachs has been riding this wave for 12 years now. This whole manipulation talk always finds a home in silver because the silver market is tiny—it’s actually possible to move the needle there. Most people realize the gold market is massive, so they're more careful about peddling those nonsense theories. Now, your theory suggests someone manipulates silver to somehow control the price of gold and commodities in general through this tiny, microscopic market. That sounds like something you picked up from reading too much ZeroHedge.

Anthony Evans78 said:Gold is money, whereas oil is just a commodity.
Is that concept really that hard to wrap your head around?
To put it simply: since modern currencies are printed out of thin air in practically limitless amounts, their value is basically negligible. But if you want to maintain the illusion that they actually mean something, you have to attack the one thing that reflects their true worth.
Since you still don't get that gold is money, there's no point in me talking to you. Like I've said a thousand times, go educate yourself on why gold counts as money while oil doesn't.
Silver didn't crash; the price was intentionally crushed. Who do you think dumped hundreds of millions of ounces back in late April and again in September? PHYSICAL silver? Nobody, obviously, because no one actually had it to sell. The paper price dictates the physical market, which is how you can dump hundreds of millions of paper ounces just to tank the price.

The smart money sold in late April. They knew that parabolic moves stretching way above the 200-day moving average are a trap. Plenty of traders were looking for an exit but waited for "just a little more," and things would have absolutely cratered at $55 or $60 if silver hadn't hit roughly $50 an ounce first.

For anyone who needs a refresher, here is the silver chart from 2011:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01700166996

You can clearly see how silver went parabolic and stretched far beyond its 200-day line. Those kinds of blow-off tops are the biggest danger to any bull market. The best way for a bull market to stay healthy and go high is to avoid going parabolic in the first place. So, if we're talking about manipulation, the real "rigging" would be forcing a parabolic spike, not the subsequent crash. That's Trader 101. Pullbacks that don't turn into full-blown parables (like what we're seeing in gold right now) are actually great for a bull market. If luck is on our side, we might see another major correction like this in two years, followed by one final surge toward the end of the decade that ends in a terminal parabola. Eventually, people will decide other things—like stocks—have become cheap, and they'll rotate out of expensive commodities into something else. That's just how the cycle works.

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