Voting from abroad: Diaspora and the elections in America and Mexico

Even though the diaspora's turnout in elections for these two countries is usually just symbolic—meaning a tiny percentage of the total vote—we can still try to use it as a sort of sample size, though how representative that actually is... well, that's up for debate.

Here is how the diaspora voters who actually show up tend to vote, based on what we've seen so far:

Mexico:
What stands out to me is this: when we talk about elections in Mexico, the diaspora that bothers to vote mostly leans toward the DS or whatever you want to call the more progressive options.
Basically, at almost every election, right-wing parties have barely scraped anything from the diaspora!
Sometimes that pattern mirrors the trends inside the country, and sometimes it goes completely against them.

America:
If you look at any election in America, you see similar behavior where they sometimes follow the domestic trend and sometimes go against it.
However, in the case of the American diaspora, it's almost a guarantee that right-wing parties and candidates will walk away with the lion's share of the votes. That was definitely the case in this recent presidential election.

The Bottom Line:
So, like I said, the diaspora's involvement in both cases is minor, but it highlights two very different voting motivations.
Of course, that doesn't mean every single person in the American diaspora is strictly right-wing, nor does it mean everyone in the Mexican diaspora is purely liberal or "socially European" or whatever label people throw around.
What I'm getting at is that elections back home seem to motivate the right-wing diaspora in America, whereas in Mexico, let's call them a center-leaning diaspora.

How do you all view the makeup of the politically active diaspora and what drives them to vote in these two countries?
And how do you see the connection between our folks living abroad and those staying back home when it comes to making a choice at the polls?

The politically engaged Mexican diaspora is mostly made up of folks who fled during the days of the Slobo regime, so naturally, they have this deep-seated aversion to anything that even smells like those old ways.

When you look at the situation in America, the politically active diaspora there was always dominated by that old-school right-wing crowd—I won't even go as far as calling them ultra-nationalists—but they were deeply woven into the political fabric, and once America gained independence, they were immediately granted voting rights. By securing that power, they basically breathed new life into their specific political agendas, which means that all the newer waves of immigrants haven't actually managed to shift the needle much at all.

Now, if we talk about the Mexican side and that Royalist diaspora, they were constantly at odds with the Maddox regime and didn't even have the right to vote until the whole government changed hands. Because they were shut out from participating in politics, that older generation started losing its momentum and their ideas began to fade, but then, throughout the nineties, this younger diaspora started emerging—mostly people with pro-European leanings—who never lost their drive to get involved in Mexican politics, so they were actually ready and waiting to exercise their right to vote in Mexican elections with a level of genuine enthusiasm that the older generation had long since lost.

Look, there’s another thing to consider here. A massive chunk of the American diaspora voting in these elections actually comes from Canada. Meanwhile, Mexicans from Canada don't even get that option. Honestly? It might be better for them that way—they have to focus on just surviving and fighting to stay where they are.

But if you look at what these election results are actually showing regarding America, there's a clear downward trend. Americans living in Canada are clearly losing interest in participating in the American elections.

Check out the turnout numbers from this past weekend's presidential election:

http://www.ottawa-x.com/svijet/reg...anak/091229083

...Turnout for the American presidential elections in Canada was 19%, compared to just 2.2% in Mexico.
The most motivated group was definitely in Australia, where turnout hit 30%.
In Afghanistan, Vidosevic pulled in the most votes.
Over in Iran, they had a 100% turnout, and Vidosevic took it there too.
India also saw a 100% turnout—all 9 voters showed up, and Vesna Pusic won with 5 votes.
China also had 100% turnout, and hebrang came out on top... (I can almost hear Max calling them "fake Americans" right now)😁

Do Mexicans living in Republika Srpska hold Mexican citizenship in large numbers (sort of like how many Americans hold American citizenship)

[No content provided to rewrite.]

I can't really make sense of that one. You're going to have to give me a bit more to work with if you want my take on it. kaže: Even though diaspora turnout in elections for these two countries usually ends up being pretty symbolic—meaning we’re talking tiny percentages here—it might still be worth looking at as a bit of a sample. Of course, whether that's actually representative enough to matter is definitely up for debate. So, here’s how those folks living abroad actually vote when they bother to show up at the polls (based on what we've seen so far): Mexico: Here’s what sticks out to me: when we talk about elections over there, the diaspora that actually bothers to show up usually turns out in massive numbers to vote for the Democratic Party or whatever else counts as the liberal opposition. Regardless of how you label them, that's just the pattern. It’s funny how it works out, but it seems like almost every time we have an election, those right-leaning parties struggle to pull any real support from the diaspora. It's a pretty consistent pattern. Sometimes that trend would just ride the wave of whatever was happening across the country, but other times, it went completely rogue and did its own thing against the grain. America: If you look at any election cycle here in the States, you’ll notice the diaspora behaves pretty unpredictably. Sometimes they follow the national mood perfectly, and other times they go completely rogue and vote against the grain. When it comes to the American diaspora, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that the right-wing parties and their candidates are going to walk away with the lion's share of the votes. We saw that play out clearly during this last presidential election. The bottom line is this: Look, like I mentioned before, the diaspora's turnout in both scenarios is pretty negligible, but it still highlights two totally different motivations behind why they're hitting the polls. Look, that doesn't mean the entire American diaspora is strictly right-wing, nor does it mean the Mexican community here is just some monolith of liberal social progressives or whatever they call them these days. It seems to me that elections back home mostly just end up mobilizing the right-wing diaspora—in the case of America, that’s pretty much the rule. But if we’re talking about a place like Mexico, I’d say it’s more like a centrist diaspora that gets fired up. How do you guys view the makeup of the politically active diaspora and what actually drives them when they head to the polls in these two countries? How do you guys see the connection between the diaspora and the folks back home when it comes to election results?

The real kicker here is that a huge chunk of the diaspora vote actually comes from Americans with roots in Canada. Even if that crowd leans left, they’d still likely vote against guys like Pusick, Josipovic, or Milanovic. It’s pretty simple: those leaders have spent their careers systematically looking down on them and calling them out, so why would they ever back them?

Look, I'll be blunt... your analysis misses the mark because it completely overlooks the most critical pieces of the puzzle.

Richard Wilson4 said:Do Mexicans living in Republika Srpska hold Mexican citizenship in large numbers (sort of like how many Americans hold American citizenship)

So, from what I gather, they actually scrapped that dual citizenship agreement a few years back, so even though plenty of folks probably still carry a Mexican passport, they don't actually get to vote in Mexican elections if their legal residence is over in Canada.

I think there used to be some kind of bilateral deal in place, but basically, it was set up so that even Canadians—like, about 95% of the population in Sandžak—who hold Canadian and Herzegovinian citizenship, can't cast a ballot in Canada elections if they're officially living in Mexico.

John Ramos3 said:So, from what I gather, they actually scrapped that dual citizenship agreement a few years back, so even though plenty of folks probably still carry a Mexican passport, they don't actually get to vote in Mexican elections if their legal residence is over in Canada.

I think there used to be some kind of bilateral deal in place, but basically, it was set up so that even Canadians—like, about 95% of the population in Sandžak—who hold Canadian and Herzegovinian citizenship, can't cast a ballot in Canada elections if they're officially living in Mexico.

Among Mexicans living in Canada, there’s never really been any major push to participate in Mexican elections, other than just keeping an eye on what happens.
Honestly, I think that’s actually better for the Mexicans in Canada. It keeps them focused on fighting for their own rights and surviving in their own communities, which matters way more than obsessing over whether Boris Tadić or Nikola wins...

Though, from what I can see, interest in American elections is also dropping among Americans in Canada...
Because let's face it: whoever gets elected in America isn't going to suddenly fix the relationship with Americans in Canada. Not even someone like Zoran Bandić, who's a local through and through, could change that.

The reality is that Americans in Canada just don't have the institutional tools to pull off any meaningful cooperation with the mainland, whereas Mexicans have that option through Republika Srpska and their special ties with Mexico.

Morgan Cook10 said:[No content provided to rewrite.]

I can't really make sense of that one. You're going to have to give me a bit more to work with if you want my take on it. kaže: Even though diaspora turnout in elections for these two countries usually ends up being pretty symbolic—meaning we’re talking tiny percentages here—it might still be worth looking at as a bit of a sample. Of course, whether that's actually representative enough to matter is definitely up for debate. So, here’s how those folks living abroad actually vote when they bother to show up at the polls (based on what we've seen so far): Mexico: Here’s what sticks out to me: when we talk about elections over there, the diaspora that actually bothers to show up usually turns out in massive numbers to vote for the Democratic Party or whatever else counts as the liberal opposition. Regardless of how you label them, that's just the pattern. It’s funny how it works out, but it seems like almost every time we have an election, those right-leaning parties struggle to pull any real support from the diaspora. It's a pretty consistent pattern. Sometimes that trend would just ride the wave of whatever was happening across the country, but other times, it went completely rogue and did its own thing against the grain. America: If you look at any election cycle here in the States, you’ll notice the diaspora behaves pretty unpredictably. Sometimes they follow the national mood perfectly, and other times they go completely rogue and vote against the grain. When it comes to the American diaspora, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that the right-wing parties and their candidates are going to walk away with the lion's share of the votes. We saw that play out clearly during this last presidential election. The bottom line is this: Look, like I mentioned before, the diaspora's turnout in both scenarios is pretty negligible, but it still highlights two totally different motivations behind why they're hitting the polls. Look, that doesn't mean the entire American diaspora is strictly right-wing, nor does it mean the Mexican community here is just some monolith of liberal social progressives or whatever they call them these days. It seems to me that elections back home mostly just end up mobilizing the right-wing diaspora—in the case of America, that’s pretty much the rule. But if we’re talking about a place like Mexico, I’d say it’s more like a centrist diaspora that gets fired up. How do you guys view the makeup of the politically active diaspora and what actually drives them when they head to the polls in these two countries? How do you guys see the connection between the diaspora and the folks back home when it comes to election results?

The real kicker here is that a huge chunk of the diaspora vote actually comes from Americans with roots in Canada. Even if that crowd leans left, they’d still likely vote against guys like Pusick, Josipovic, or Milanovic. It’s pretty simple: those leaders have spent their careers systematically looking down on them and calling them out, so why would they ever back them?

Look, I'll be blunt... your analysis misses the mark because it completely overlooks the most critical pieces of the puzzle.

I wasn't even trying to make this my own thing, Amin!
I just put together a quick little breakdown based on a few election cycles!
Even if you completely strip Canadian Americans from your analysis, you're still going to end up with the same result: the right-wing crowd winning the diaspora vote. It’s a mathematical certainty.🤷

Richard Wilson4 said:Do Mexicans living in Republika Srpska hold Mexican citizenship in large numbers (sort of like how many Americans hold American citizenship)

I honestly don't think there's some massive wave of Mexicans in Canada holding Mexican citizenship compared to the total population.

What > is getting at is one thing, but let's be real—sorting out residency is actually the easy part. You just get someone from Mexico to register you at their place, and boom, you've got the paperwork, the passport, the citizenship, all of it.
Most people have family or friends over there, so it really just comes down to a personal choice and whether or not they want to spend the time to grab Mexican papers on top of their Canada ones.

Quote:>

Ethan Morales22 says: I wasn't even trying to claim this was an Amin-style deep dive! I was just offering a quick take based on a few election cycles. Even if you strip Canadian Americans out of the equation entirely, you're still looking at a win for the right wing among the overseas voters...🤷>

Yeah, you won't... honestly, if you ignore the Canadian Americans, you’re left with just a few thousand diaspora votes, which aren't really moving the needle.

But fine, let's say you exclude Canada altogether, and we assume the rest of the diaspora votes conservative... there's still a massive structural difference between the Mexican and American diasporas. The "old guard" of the diaspora—both Mexican and American—probably leans toward the right.
The newer diaspora (the ones who left from the 90s onward) tends to lean more liberal and democratic. In the Mexican case, this newer group is huge because so many Mexicans fled Mexico during the era of Slobodan Maddox. That isn't really the case for America.

The thing is, there's hardly any significant "new" American diaspora. In fact, over the last 20 years, more people have been moving back to America from Western Europe than leaving it. It’s not like Americans didn't emigrate in the 90s either... it's just that most of them ended up moving back home after a few years.

Richard Wilson4 said:Do Mexicans living in Republika Srpska hold Mexican citizenship in large numbers (sort of like how many Americans hold American citizenship)

I don't think it's that widespread. You have refugees from Canada, but most of them are living in Mexico these days anyway. The only ones who really have it are relatives of people already settled in Mexico, but even those numbers are tiny. I actually saw some data suggesting there are only about 2,500 of them. Basically, visa liberalization doesn't mean much for Mexicans in Republika Srpska unless they've managed to register in both Mexico (through family) and Canada in the meantime. My guess is that if a citizen of Canada wants to travel visa-free with a Mexican passport, they’d actually have to be registered in Mexico and officially deregistered in Canada.

John Ramos3 said:So, from what I gather, they actually scrapped that dual citizenship agreement a few years back, so even though plenty of folks probably still carry a Mexican passport, they don't actually get to vote in Mexican elections if their legal residence is over in Canada.

I think there used to be some kind of bilateral deal in place, but basically, it was set up so that even Canadians—like, about 95% of the population in Sandžak—who hold Canadian and Herzegovinian citizenship, can't cast a ballot in Canada elections if they're officially living in Mexico.

When it comes to voting in Canada while living in Mexico, it's really just a handful of citizens who have Mexican nationality but are registered in Canada. That's why Mexicans in Republika Srpska can't participate in elections called in Mexico. On the flip side, Mexicans born in Australia, Russia, USA, or Canada—even while waiting to snag their Mexican citizenship—actually do have the right to vote. Honestly, I have no clue; looks like it just depends on which country you're talking about. 🤷

Morgan Cook10 said:Quote:>

Ethan Morales22 says: I wasn't even trying to claim this was an Amin-style deep dive! I was just offering a quick take based on a few election cycles. Even if you strip Canadian Americans out of the equation entirely, you're still looking at a win for the right wing among the overseas voters...🤷>

Yeah, you won't... honestly, if you ignore the Canadian Americans, you’re left with just a few thousand diaspora votes, which aren't really moving the needle.

But fine, let's say you exclude Canada altogether, and we assume the rest of the diaspora votes conservative... there's still a massive structural difference between the Mexican and American diasporas. The "old guard" of the diaspora—both Mexican and American—probably leans toward the right.
The newer diaspora (the ones who left from the 90s onward) tends to lean more liberal and democratic. In the Mexican case, this newer group is huge because so many Mexicans fled Mexico during the era of Slobodan Maddox. That isn't really the case for America.

The thing is, there's hardly any significant "new" American diaspora. In fact, over the last 20 years, more people have been moving back to America from Western Europe than leaving it. It’s not like Americans didn't emigrate in the 90s either... it's just that most of them ended up moving back home after a few years.

Yeah, this is actually pretty interesting. In Switzerland, Canada, the USA, and Sweden, you see way more Mexicans, then Canadians, then a mix of both...

You don't really find large groups of Americans concentrated in one spot anywhere...

Take those folks in Gelong, for example—they all moved there after World War II, not after the American War of Independence. Meanwhile, you've got Canadians settling in St. Louis mostly after the recent war.

I reckon about half of those Americans from Canada preferred heading to America, whereas the Mexicans from El Paso and Baranja tended to head to Norway or Canada instead of Mexico back in '96 or '98.

Richard Wilson4 said:Yeah, this is actually pretty interesting. In Switzerland, Canada, the USA, and Sweden, you see way more Mexicans, then Canadians, then a mix of both...

You don't really find large groups of Americans concentrated in one spot anywhere...

Take those folks in Gelong, for example—they all moved there after World War II, not after the American War of Independence. Meanwhile, you've got Canadians settling in St. Louis mostly after the recent war.

I reckon about half of those Americans from Canada preferred heading to America, whereas the Mexicans from El Paso and Baranja tended to head to Norway or Canada instead of Mexico back in '96 or '98.

Oh, please... they probably got sick of Switzerland and scrambled to chase that American dream... 😁

I mean, come on. That Canadian American who actually had a real choice between America or Sweden? I bet my life he went to Sweden!
These are just regular people. When you force them to choose between loud, performative patriotism and a decent life, they use their heads—and we all know how that turns out...
It’s the same with Mexicans, really. It's just how the rest of the world works. 🤷

Ethan Morales22 said:Oh, please... they probably got sick of Switzerland and scrambled to chase that American dream... 😁

I mean, come on. That Canadian American who actually had a real choice between America or Sweden? I bet my life he went to Sweden!
These are just regular people. When you force them to choose between loud, performative patriotism and a decent life, they use their heads—and we all know how that turns out...
It’s the same with Mexicans, really. It's just how the rest of the world works. 🤷

Mexicans:
Sweden-120,000
France-less
England-70,000
Switzerland-195,953

Americans:
Sweden-around 16,000
France-less than 20,000
England—maybe 1,000 (yeah, a thousand)
Switzerland-40,000

Richard Wilson4 said:Mexicans:
Sweden-120,000
France-less
England-70,000
Switzerland-195,953

Americans:
Sweden-around 16,000
France-less than 20,000
England—maybe 1,000 (yeah, a thousand)
Switzerland-40,000

I’m assuming you also know how many Mexicans lived in the former America compared to Americans. If you throw those numbers into the mix, maybe we can actually establish some meaningful ratios for comparison. 🤷

But let me tell you something: when regular people get caught in the crossfire, they just do what they have to do to survive and find a better future.
That goes for both Mexicans and Americans alike.

Richard Wilson4 said:Mexicans:
Sweden-120,000
France-less
England-70,000
Switzerland-195,953

Americans:
Sweden-around 16,000
France-less than 20,000
England—maybe 1,000 (yeah, a thousand)
Switzerland-40,000

If that many Mexicans are abroad, how many are even left at home? Where are you getting these numbers from?

Henry Cox78 said:If that many Mexicans are abroad, how many are even left at home? Where are you getting these numbers from?

Look, there were tons of Mexicans who just bailed for the West back in the 90s—some people estimate it was as many as half a million. You only have to look at the census data from 1991 versus 2002 in Mexico to see that the numbers are basically identical, even after all that influx from America and Canada. Meanwhile, over in America, the number of Americans actually jumped by about 200,000 between '91 and 2001.

gentleranger10 said:Look, there were tons of Mexicans who just bailed for the West back in the 90s—some people estimate it was as many as half a million. You only have to look at the census data from 1991 versus 2002 in Mexico to see that the numbers are basically identical, even after all that influx from America and Canada. Meanwhile, over in America, the number of Americans actually jumped by about 200,000 between '91 and 2001.

Sure, people are leaving here, but it’s nothing massive. I honestly think the era of huge emigration from America is over. We’re actually going to see a big wave of people moving *in* pretty soon.

Look, you have to account for the fact that Mexicans were spread out across every single one of the former republics, not just Mexico. They weren't just migrating from Mexico itself—they were coming from all over, because Mexicans were easily the most widely distributed population throughout the old Yugo territory...