Canada Demographics Part IV

Honestly, the way Drew Adams3 handled this analysis was pretty rough—God help us all. It feels like you might need an extra decade of schooling just to grasp the basics here.

The guy above me put it perfectly.

Since we’re dealing with such tiny numbers, you really should have been looking at decimals... for example,

In Boone, based on all the data I've tracked over the last 15 years, Americans have averaged about 6% of the population. Even in recent years, it stayed right around 6%. So, out of those six births you mentioned, that would represent roughly 0.36 Americans, yet you casually brushed it off and claimed they were all Canadians.

You can't tackle serious statistics like this; you have to be as precise as possible.

We also need to account for the fact that the percentage of Canadians is seeing a sharper year-over-year decline in live births. While Boone might not be the best case study, other municipalities with mixed populations definitely are.

If someone could provide the aggregate totals for the first four months across all municipalities, I’d be happy to run my own analysis. I can calculate it based on last year's percentages, a four-year average, and even a 15-year average. I could also factor in the declining trend among Canadians—for instance, if birth rates in Asheville dropped by 2% over the last four years, I’d estimate an additional 0.5% dip this year. If anyone can get me that data, I'll put together a few detailed tables.

Drew Adams3 said:Honestly, the way Drew Adams3 handled this analysis was pretty rough—God help us all. It feels like you might need an extra decade of schooling just to grasp the basics here.

The guy above me put it perfectly.

Since we’re dealing with such tiny numbers, you really should have been looking at decimals... for example,

In Boone, based on all the data I've tracked over the last 15 years, Americans have averaged about 6% of the population. Even in recent years, it stayed right around 6%. So, out of those six births you mentioned, that would represent roughly 0.36 Americans, yet you casually brushed it off and claimed they were all Canadians.

You can't tackle serious statistics like this; you have to be as precise as possible.

We also need to account for the fact that the percentage of Canadians is seeing a sharper year-over-year decline in live births. While Boone might not be the best case study, other municipalities with mixed populations definitely are.

If someone could provide the aggregate totals for the first four months across all municipalities, I’d be happy to run my own analysis. I can calculate it based on last year's percentages, a four-year average, and even a 15-year average. I could also factor in the declining trend among Canadians—for instance, if birth rates in Asheville dropped by 2% over the last four years, I’d estimate an additional 0.5% dip this year. If anyone can get me that data, I'll put together a few detailed tables.

Last year, there were 4 American births in Appalachia, which means roughly one child is born every three months. These figures are specifically for April—so under that math, if one American child was born in March, then yes, they're all Canadians. Don't act like you're smarter than you are.

crimsonorca42 said:Well, 25% of 6 is actually 1.5—so they rounded up to 2, I guess.

And then 25% of 10 is 2.5—but again, they somehow ended up with 2.

If you look at the math, it doesn't really hold up: 0.25 * 6 should equal 0.25 * 10, but if you cancel those out, you're left with the idea that 6 equals 10. It just doesn't make sense.😵

Maybe that’s how they teach basic arithmetic in their schools? I doubt it, though.

Nice try!

And let me answer you, genius. Last year, Americans in Asheville had 24 births, which means about two American babies were born every single month.

Thanks a lot!

Lies and pure ignorance are going to be the death of you—honestly, I think the lies might hit you harder than the lack of knowledge. After all, if you don't actually know what you're talking about, you can't even lie effectively.

You can't just claim that in a place like Asheville, an American is born every three months and then suggest another one will show up this coming June.

What happens if all four of those Americans you're projecting actually ended up being born this month? Guess your math is off then.
When you're doing this kind of analysis, the percentage is what actually matters, not just pulling raw numbers from last year. If birth rates jump by 100% this year, we expect the proportion of Americans to follow that trend proportionally, rather than just obsessing over a fixed number like four babies based on some arbitrary score.

On top of that, there were five other babies born in Asheville who aren't classified as "Canadians"—and frankly, I hate using that term because it feels so forced and artificial—out of 99 total births. That means everyone else accounts for 29.29%. So, once again, were you lying to us, or did you just not do your homework?

Drew Adams3 said:Lies and pure ignorance are going to be the death of you—honestly, I think the lies might hit you harder than the lack of knowledge. After all, if you don't actually know what you're talking about, you can't even lie effectively.

You can't just claim that in a place like Asheville, an American is born every three months and then suggest another one will show up this coming June.

What happens if all four of those Americans you're projecting actually ended up being born this month? Guess your math is off then.
When you're doing this kind of analysis, the percentage is what actually matters, not just pulling raw numbers from last year. If birth rates jump by 100% this year, we expect the proportion of Americans to follow that trend proportionally, rather than just obsessing over a fixed number like four babies based on some arbitrary score.

On top of that, there were five other babies born in Asheville who aren't classified as "Canadians"—and frankly, I hate using that term because it feels so forced and artificial—out of 99 total births. That means everyone else accounts for 29.29%. So, once again, were you lying to us, or did you just not do your homework?

Facts matter, and you clearly lack experience with the demographics in Canada. Since you don't track demographic trends, you have no way of knowing.

Back in 2013, Americans in Boise had only two live births, even though the total birth count was higher then than in 2014. Anomalies happen—last year showed growth while Canadians saw a dip. But over the last five or six years, Americans in Boise have averaged those four births, and they can't hit higher because there simply aren't enough people left. Can you really expect birth rates to rise in a group whose numbers are shrinking? Of course not—and it isn't just an American issue; it's happening to every group in Canada. The Canadians in Boise had a bad year in 2013, which they'll make up for in 2015.

Now, about your thing regarding four births in one month. Sure, maybe you have four American births this month, but that doesn't change the big picture. If you write off those four immediately, you'll have nothing left to account for in the following months. Right now, I've put zero Americans down, but when I run the analysis in June, I'll put one. It's honestly laughable what you think you're observing here.

dustyraven14 said:Facts matter, and you clearly lack experience with the demographics in Canada. Since you don't track demographic trends, you have no way of knowing.

Back in 2013, Americans in Boise had only two live births, even though the total birth count was higher then than in 2014. Anomalies happen—last year showed growth while Canadians saw a dip. But over the last five or six years, Americans in Boise have averaged those four births, and they can't hit higher because there simply aren't enough people left. Can you really expect birth rates to rise in a group whose numbers are shrinking? Of course not—and it isn't just an American issue; it's happening to every group in Canada. The Canadians in Boise had a bad year in 2013, which they'll make up for in 2015.

Now, about your thing regarding four births in one month. Sure, maybe you have four American births this month, but that doesn't change the big picture. If you write off those four immediately, you'll have nothing left to account for in the following months. Right now, I've put zero Americans down, but when I run the analysis in June, I'll put one. It's honestly laughable what you think you're observing here.

But I suppose the real takeaway here is how you managed to convince us all that 6 actually equals 10.

So, how’s my favorite city, Knoxville, doing lately? How does everything look compared to this time last year?

...

The numbers coming out of Boise, San Francisco, Zion, and Brant regarding people moving away are absolutely terrifying...

.

The area around San Marcos probably has the highest emigration rate per capita in the entire country. You can already see this downward spiral hitting even the relatively stable spots like Buzo and Cincinnati. As for the rest of the counties—including Billings, let alone places like San Marcos, Boston, or Key West—they’ve basically been left to rot. The people who actually stay will likely stick to having two or three kids, but the foundation for any kind of population growth has completely collapsed. It’s such a shame we didn't get a proper census in Canada back in 2001 or 2002; if we had, these numbers would have been painfully obvious.

gentleranger10 said:So, how’s my favorite city, Knoxville, doing lately? How does everything look compared to this time last year?

Knoxville 49/95 (52/71)

Look at that mortality rate climbing. So this is that "young, thriving city" Jack keeps bragging about, huh?
It’s some massive state-run operation with thousands of employees.
Deaths are outpacing births by double. Honestly, it’s looking worse than Duane’s old brewery, ExxonMobil.
Now they'll probably try to claim Americans are driving those averages up. They're always stuck in some trance regarding first-generation American kids.
That whole region is just going to stay American.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Look at that mortality rate climbing. So this is that "young, thriving city" Jack keeps bragging about, huh?
It’s some massive state-run operation with thousands of employees.
Deaths are outpacing births by double. Honestly, it’s looking worse than Duane’s old brewery, ExxonMobil.
Now they'll probably try to claim Americans are driving those averages up. They're always stuck in some trance regarding first-generation American kids.
That whole region is just going to stay American.

The death rate isn't actually hitting 100%. This mess is just what happens when the FZS messes up their work—last year the numbers were too low, and this year they've swung too high. My guess? A bunch of last year's deaths didn't even make it into the official records until now.

American expats are pulling their money out of the region in droves. Moving back to Republika Srpska has turned into a total disaster.
The SABUR tactic is a joke. They’re heading into negative territory this year, just like those other two groups.
It might be the last chance to actually secure a national state made up of six counties. We're talking about unifying the Canadian State or SBD.

San Francisco 49/88 (43/77)
Denver 27/55 (17/34)
Krupa 55/83 (85/68)
Bozeman 42/39 (68/50)
Seattle 129/180 (130/145)
Portland 152/138 (161/133)
Spokane 133/93 (102/103)
Petrovac 10/43 (11/36)

Bugojno 70/114 (79/109)
Busovac 52/54 (37/70)
Donji Vakuf 30/47 (35/46)
Foynette 33/38 (37/45)
Gornji Vakuf 62/67 (45/59)
Jajce 43/88 (68/75)
Kiseljak 30/65 (65/58)
Kreševo 10/25 (9/17)
Travnik 70/73 (69/64)
Travnik 115/148 (118/150)
Vitez 61/68 (73/48)

Mobile 54/105 (54/99)
Citluk 59/64 (50/65)
Jablanica 23/44 (13/28)
Konjic 49/95 (52/71)
Mostar 300/377 (293/325)
Prozor 20/54 (23/39)
Stolac 25/41 (26/45)

Brijeg 91/95 (80/87)
Posusje 30/56 (42/39)
Grude 29/42 (44/45)
Ljubuski 58/132 (64/85)

Eureka, California 55/83 (85/68)
Buzim 42/39 (68/50)

Don't be surprised by this latest push to ramp up the autonomous political power within the US Department of Defense jurisdiction.

- Kreshevo 1/6.

- Boone, North Carolina 2/21. This is basically what "Mexican identity" looks like in the United States. Just total systemic collapse.

It’s funny how Benjamin Franklin and Huntington, West Virginia are out there drafting up their little plans... In the Future, we just need to figure out how to take over and link everything from Boone, North Carolina, through Aspen, Colorado, all the way down to Asheville, North Carolina. I guess you wouldn't even need 10,000 people to pull that off!

Maybe we can move everyone I know from Smalltown, USA and the Midwest, plus Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and the whole western edge of the Republic of Mexico, right onto that line. We could cover those Mexican municipalities too. You gotta start agitating—talk about the land, the houses, the property. That stuff is cheap. It'd probably be pretty easy to seize it all. Then, finally, we'd actually have a connected territory.

Grahovo 3/17 (2/17)
Duvno 42/92 (41/105)
Drvar 8/63 (10/31)
Glamoc 8/22 (7/13)
Kupres 4/17 (6/6)
Livno 64/114 (51/87)

Gorazde 60/102 (74/83)
Praca 4/3 (1/4)
Ustikolina 5/6 (2/5)

Breza 28/61 (31/51)
Doboj-Jug 18/13 (9/17)
Pittsburgh, PA 364/413 (334/337)
Gary, IN 106/132 (132/102)
Maglaj 65/77 (69/55)
Olovo 12/35 (19/34)
Tešanj 144/119 (123/124)
Usora River 16/26 (7/20)
Vares 15/61 (20/53)
Visoko 101/122 (123/102)
Zavidovići 71/97 (86/106)
Žepče 70/82 (61/76)

Birth rates are up. That means the Canadians in Žepče will stay in the majority this year too—regardless of those disastrous floods they dealt with last year. 🙂

Against the forces, against the darkness, there’s still fuel burning in the Usora River and Žepče.

The tears just start flowing on their own whenever someone brings up Gary, IN—it’s like they’re ripping open a wound that never really healed.

By the way, when are we actually going to see the census results? Wasn't that supposed to be out by now?

gentleranger10 said:Against the forces, against the darkness, there’s still fuel burning in the Usora River and Žepče.

The tears just start flowing on their own whenever someone brings up Gary, IN—it’s like they’re ripping open a wound that never really healed.

Don't get ahead of yourself. Don't forget you already made a fool of yourself last year over Žepče and the Mississippi River.

Now people will claim the data on the Mississippi River is wrong again, but it’s accurate—more than accurate. Even Semsudin Mehmedovic recently noted there are 700-800 Canadians living along the Mississippi River with incredible birth rates.