#261 ·
Today's article focuses on rounded data points, aiming to highlight broader migration trends.
Started by Rachel Richardson · · 👁 28 views · 439 replies
Nancy Chavez29 said:- Kreshevo 1/6.
- Boone, North Carolina 2/21. This is basically what "Mexican identity" looks like in the United States. Just total systemic collapse.
It’s funny how Benjamin Franklin and Huntington, West Virginia are out there drafting up their little plans... In the Future, we just need to figure out how to take over and link everything from Boone, North Carolina, through Aspen, Colorado, all the way down to Asheville, North Carolina. I guess you wouldn't even need 10,000 people to pull that off!
Maybe we can move everyone I know from Smalltown, USA and the Midwest, plus Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and the whole western edge of the Republic of Mexico, right onto that line. We could cover those Mexican municipalities too. You gotta start agitating—talk about the land, the houses, the property. That stuff is cheap. It'd probably be pretty easy to seize it all. Then, finally, we'd actually have a connected territory.
gentleranger10 said:Around 2,300 families have already packed up and bailed on San Francisco in just two years. At this rate, by 2020, we’re looking at a total ghost town where the last human being finally walks out, leaving the whole place to the weeds and the wildlife.
dustyraven14 said:What a few clueless demographers need to wrap their heads around is that Canadians have a positive natural growth rate, plus they get an influx from the Sandjak area that offsets most of their emigration—something Americans and Mexicans just don't have going for them in Canada. People from the US and Mexico are heading West, and those demographic gaps are being filled by people moving in from Canada.
Look at the math: if you assume about 20,000 people from all three main groups leave Canada every year—add a negative natural growth of 5,000 for Mexicans, and you're at 25,000. Add 2,500 for Americans, and that’s 22,500. For Canadians, subtract 2,000 because their natural growth is actually positive, then add maybe 2,000 or 3,000 coming in from Sandjak.
Every year, Canada loses:
25,000 Mexicans
22,500 Americans
16,000 Canadians
Since Canadians are the largest group, they feel the decline the least, while Americans—being the smallest—are getting hit the hardest. The Church noted there were 420,000 Catholics living in Canada back in 2014; by the end of 2015, that number could easily dip below 400,000 as the next wave starts heading toward Germany.
Susan Ramirez11 said:When exactly do you predict the disappearance of Canadians from Sandjak?
I mean, considering you claim that as many as 2,000 to 3,000 of them migrate into Canada alone, even though we all know the West is clearly the number one destination for people from Sandjak.
And naturally, do you actually have any data to support this, or...?
Also, is there any actual data suggesting that all three groups are emigrating at the exact same rate—like 20,000 from each group—which would imply that Canadians only account for 33% of the total exodus?
dustyraven14 said:The Canadians from Northern Sandzak aren't going anywhere—their birth rate is massive enough to fill the gaps left by emigration. Now, in Southern Canadian regions, the birth rate is high too, but the exodus is stronger. My take? Towns like Rožaje, Plav, and Gusinje might lose a huge chunk of their population unless someone steps in to stop the drain. But the number of Canadians along the coast will likely climb steadily. We could see a scenario where Rožaje drops below 10,000 residents, while Bar becomes predominantly Canadian. Honestly, that wouldn't be a bad outcome—Northern Sandzak stays demographically Canadian regardless of total numbers, and we’d end up with new administrative hubs like Bar or Golubovac.
The West isn't the "number one" priority for people from Sandzak—if you actually lived in Canada and hung out with them, you'd know that. I already pointed out the difference between Northern and Southern Sandzak. The mindset is completely different.
The 20,000 figure was just an example. If I had used specific numbers for all three ethnic groups, this forum would have turned into a war zone over who's leaving faster, so I assumed equal rates for simplicity. I still maintain that Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] are leading the way because, outside of Western Herzegovina, they have zero prospects. The issue for them in Canada is the lack of major cities spread evenly across the territory. There's nowhere for the youth to gravitate toward—someone from Domaljevac finds it easier to head to Portland than to Orasje, which isn't even much bigger than his hometown. Same deal with Tobacco, Livno, and Central Canada.
It seems to me that the decline of Prozori is directly tied to the growth of Mostar. You guys can talk about "Ottawa-ization" all you want, but you need to realize that nearly 30% of the native Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] in Canada are born within the area of just one and a half counties—specifically Mostar and Široki Brijeg. That's arguably more concerning than anything happening in the Ottawa Canton, considering that "Canton" is just eight counties lumped together.
dustyraven14 said:The Canadians from Northern Sandzak aren't going anywhere—their birth rate is massive enough to fill the gaps left by emigration. Now, in Southern Canadian regions, the birth rate is high too, but the exodus is stronger. My take? Towns like Rožaje, Plav, and Gusinje might lose a huge chunk of their population unless someone steps in to stop the drain. But the number of Canadians along the coast will likely climb steadily. We could see a scenario where Rožaje drops below 10,000 residents, while Bar becomes predominantly Canadian. Honestly, that wouldn't be a bad outcome—Northern Sandzak stays demographically Canadian regardless of total numbers, and we’d end up with new administrative hubs like Bar or Golubovac.
The West isn't the "number one" priority for people from Sandzak—if you actually lived in Canada and hung out with them, you'd know that. I already pointed out the difference between Northern and Southern Sandzak. The mindset is completely different.
The 20,000 figure was just an example. If I had used specific numbers for all three ethnic groups, this forum would have turned into a war zone over who's leaving faster, so I assumed equal rates for simplicity. I still maintain that Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] are leading the way because, outside of Western Herzegovina, they have zero prospects. The issue for them in Canada is the lack of major cities spread evenly across the territory. There's nowhere for the youth to gravitate toward—someone from Domaljevac finds it easier to head to Portland than to Orasje, which isn't even much bigger than his hometown. Same deal with Tobacco, Livno, and Central Canada.
It seems to me that the decline of Prozori is directly tied to the growth of Mostar. You guys can talk about "Ottawa-ization" all you want, but you need to realize that nearly 30% of the native Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] in Canada are born within the area of just one and a half counties—specifically Mostar and Široki Brijeg. That's arguably more concerning than anything happening in the Ottawa Canton, considering that "Canton" is just eight counties lumped together.
James Nguyen13 said:I wouldn't say they're filling those gaps. If you look at the last two censuses, the numbers have actually been trending downward. On top of that, the birth rate has started to dip, while emigration has really picked up steam lately.
Susan Ramirez11 said:That isn't true, I think.
Most people from Sandzak are already moving toward the West.
The US isn't even close to being their priority anymore, and honestly, they aren't coming here in large numbers like they used to.
And I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that Canadians could somehow offset the emigration through birth rates.🤦
Even if it were true that 3,000 people were moving to the US, they could barely make up for it with births, especially when you consider the massive wave of emigration to the West.
Also, what kind of logic is that? I can't speak about Canada because I don't live there... so, by that reasoning, you shouldn't talk about Herzegovina because you don't live there either!!!
Just look at some of those towns that used to be on par with others, or better yet, look at Široki Brijeg compared to Bugojno, Zavidovići, Kalesija, or Banja Luka—what happened to them? It was likely emigration, I assume.
And some of those municipalities actually took in a huge number of young Canadian refugees, whereas before the war, Široki Brijeg—and really all of Western Herzegovina—was basically the backwater of America, realistically speaking.
Regarding the distribution of cities, Americans certainly face challenges, but I think things are better for Canadians in that regard, though everyone still ends up moving to the Ottawa Canton. Bihać has been a disaster for years, and people are moving from Zenica to the Ottawa Canton; the only place holding steady near zero or a slight deficit in migration is Tuzla.
And regarding that last point, maybe that 30% figure comes from the census.
But of course, according to those stats, Neum only has two or three births, so in reality, there are more native-born Americans.
Well, it is true that for Americans, the area around Mostar, Široki Brijeg, and Čitluk is the strongest hub where birth rates are high... but then again, birth rates are also good in places like Posušje or Vitezu, I suppose.