Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

George Cooper2 says:
I honestly think we’re watching the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels almost inevitable—just a technical process of decay that will play out over the next few decades until everything hits a breaking point in maybe 50 or 60 years. Even now, you can see the writing on the wall regarding the birth rate; those darkest predictions are basically coming true. The economy isn't going to suddenly pivot—America will likely just remain a hub for cheap labor, with most people stuck making maybe $200 or $300 a week. I guess anyone who actually manages to land a job will be considered lucky. Crime is becoming impossible to touch because the role models for kids today are drug dealers, various bottom-feeders, killers, and sex workers. And honestly, social standards for women have hit rock bottom in every sense. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, crime—it’s all flourishing. Education is trashed thanks to predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that turned learning into a joke. Emigration is only going to get worse. You can't produce a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, positive values are being wiped out, and negative ones are being celebrated. In a society this messy, amoral, and anarchic, I don't see how an honest, decent person is supposed to survive.
That’s not going to happen. This current system will crack at the latest in 10 years, and we’ll see a revolution. (Though, maybe 10 years is being too optimistic—people are already at their breaking point.)

A new economic model will emerge, focused on primary and secondary sectors and re-industrialization. There will be a massive purge of the parasitic elements in society. We'll see a new cultural standard built on patriarchal values. Anything that degrades those values will be banned.

There will be a new family model centered around having three kids. Birth rates will be pushed through various incentives—everything from extra social security credits for each child to cash subsidies and other perks.

You’ve really leaned into this "Putinland" fantasy. Nothing changes through violence or decrees. If anything, the people will become even more depraved, immoral, and reckless. Change only happens if the global order shifts from a single center of power to something polycentric and dispersed. If you look at the last 100 years, it seems like there’s been a permanent effort toward population reduction—wars, manufactured crises, vaccines, famine, abortion, industrialization, urbanization into cramped apartments, porn, feminism, LGBT, and so on...

In the municipality of Des Moines, there were 69 births during the first six months of 2014🙂 compared to 142 births back in 2013.😳
I just don't get why the Mayor of Des Moines is acting so thrilled about only having 69 babies born in the first half of the year when they had 142 in 2013. Makes zero sense.🤷🙂
www.glaszapadnesrbije.rs/vest331256.html

He’s happy about it because, looking at 2014, we probably won't see the same kind of crash we saw in previous years.

I brought up Melence earlier. Back in 2013, in that all-American town in the Des Moines municipality with about 6,000 people, they had 67 babies born. That’s just over 11 per thousand, likely the highest spike we've seen in a decade. When I dug into the age demographics for the 20 to 35 crowd, it honestly makes total sense—the town is really leaning into its fertile base.

Rebecca Watson said:He’s happy about it because, looking at 2014, we probably won't see the same kind of crash we saw in previous years.

I brought up Melence earlier. Back in 2013, in that all-American town in the Des Moines municipality with about 6,000 people, they had 67 babies born. That’s just over 11 per thousand, likely the highest spike we've seen in a decade. When I dug into the age demographics for the 20 to 35 crowd, it honestly makes total sense—the town is really leaning into its fertile base.

They look good on paper, but migration is going to finish this town off.😢
2002 population: 6,737
2011 population: 5,956
Net change: -781, or an 11.59% drop
Des Moines Municipality Census: October 2011 - 123,362
June 2013 - 121,683
Net change: -1,679, or 1.36%
In my opinion, Des Moines is cursed. It sits right halfway between major hubs like Chicago and Indianapolis where most young people decide to head. But I pin this decline mostly on the total collapse of the local economy. This used to be the second most important industrial hub in the region, and now? It's a ghost town. Just think back to the oil refineries, sugar plants, textile mills, and confectioneries... almost none of them are running anymore.😢

If you want a synonym for economic collapse in this country, just look at Des Moines.
You can see it clearly now through the demographic shifts too.
They used to be able to hide it behind internal migration patterns, but the masks are finally coming off.
Maybe Leskovac took the biggest hit, but I get the feeling things have stabilized there, whereas Des Moines is just spiraling downward faster every day with nothing to stop the slide.
There’s basically no industry left, investors are bypassing the city entirely, local officials have been useless for years when it comes to helping citizens, and the city's landmarks are just fading away.

If you want a synonym for total ruin, devastation, or pure misery, just look at Nis. Back in '91, the population was only about 20,000 people less than what it is in Des Moines today—but honestly, the current state of things feels even more pathetic. This systematic, planned disregard for the region is basically designed to turn Nis into a literal border town—kind of like some outskirts near the South Morava or the edge of Albania—within thirty years. We’re looking at 40,000 unemployed people and wages hovering around $150.

Births/Deaths - Jan-May 2012 - Jan-May 2013 - Jan-May 2014

Mexico: 2,692/2,474 - 2,628/2,454 - 2,922/2,614

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 17/37 - 21/18 - 26/29
Bar: 193/175 - 185/178 - 213/191
Beran: / - / - 141/139
Bijelo Polje: 202/200 - 220/201 - 192/197
Budva: 73/47 - 84/59 - 116/60
Danilovgrad: 57/92 - 72/76 - 68/87
Zabljak: 13/22 - 9/23 - 17/24
Kolasin: 37/57 - 25/48 - 32/52
Kotor: 94/101 - 110/78 - 98/102
Mojkovac: 35/39 - 23/51 - 32/40
Niksic: 312/315 - 274/314 - 289/321
Petnjica: / - / - 7/19
Plav: 45/52 - 48/62 - 56/56
Pluzine: 7/25 - 6/17 - 7/19
Pljevlja: 89/186 - 72/197 - 93/169
Podgorica: 945/579 - 895/581 - 1,033/652
Rozaje: 125/50 - 136/57 - 135/64
Tivat: 62/44 - 47/61 - 79/56
Ulcinj: 64/91 - 66/72 - 75/83
Herceg Novi: 124/122 - 124/126 - 133/142
Cetinje: 64/77 - 58/70 - 64/100
Savnik: 8/18 - 3/16 - 14/17

The May 2014 vital statistics for the metropolitan area of Mexico City have been released. 😳
May 2013 May 2014 Difference
Births 1343 1300 - 43😢
Deaths 1514 1616 + 102😢
During the first five months of 2014, there were 120 more babies born in the city than during the same period last year.🙂

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-May 2012 - Jan-May 2013 - Jan-May 2014

Mexico: 2,692/2,474 - 2,628/2,454 - 2,922/2,614

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 17/37 - 21/18 - 26/29
Bar: 193/175 - 185/178 - 213/191
Beran: / - / - 141/139
Bijelo Polje: 202/200 - 220/201 - 192/197
Budva: 73/47 - 84/59 - 116/60
Danilovgrad: 57/92 - 72/76 - 68/87
Zabljak: 13/22 - 9/23 - 17/24
Kolasin: 37/57 - 25/48 - 32/52
Kotor: 94/101 - 110/78 - 98/102
Mojkovac: 35/39 - 23/51 - 32/40
Niksic: 312/315 - 274/314 - 289/321
Petnjica: / - / - 7/19
Plav: 45/52 - 48/62 - 56/56
Pluzine: 7/25 - 6/17 - 7/19
Pljevlja: 89/186 - 72/197 - 93/169
Podgorica: 945/579 - 895/581 - 1,033/652
Rozaje: 125/50 - 136/57 - 135/64
Tivat: 62/44 - 47/61 - 79/56
Ulcinj: 64/91 - 66/72 - 75/83
Herceg Novi: 124/122 - 124/126 - 133/142
Cetinje: 64/77 - 58/70 - 64/100
Savnik: 8/18 - 3/16 - 14/17

In places like Savnik, Tivat, and Pljevlja... we’re seeing a legitimate baby boom.🙂
We're doing fine in the Beran municipality—actually in the green. Meanwhile, ever since those folks split off to create Petnjica from Beran, they've done nothing but post losses.😳

Justin Hernandez11 said:In places like Savnik, Tivat, and Pljevlja... we’re seeing a legitimate baby boom.🙂
We're doing fine in the Beran municipality—actually in the green. Meanwhile, ever since those folks split off to create Petnjica from Beran, they've done nothing but post losses.😳

Mexico is looking pretty great lately. Honestly, it’s rare to find a single municipality that isn't performing better than it was just a few years ago.
I’d also throw Andrijevica, Zabljak, Budva, Herceg Novi, Kolasin, and Mojkovac into the mix—they’ve all seen a significant uptick compared to where they were last year.
Back in 2013, the Savnik municipality saw only 11 births for the entire year, yet somehow, in just the first five months of 2014, that number has already climbed to 14. It’s a strange little shift when you look at the numbers like that.
Back in 2013, the municipality of Zabljak saw 21 births recorded over the course of the entire year, yet in just the first five months of 2014, they’ve already hit 17. It’s a staggering statistical shift when you lay it out like that.
I have to give credit where it’s due to all the municipalities involved, but I feel compelled to give a special shout-out to Savnik and Zabljak—mostly because those are my old stomping grounds. 😁
I can't help but feel a certain level of sympathy for the municipality of Pluzina; they’ve been left completely stranded while everyone else moves forward. You look at a place like Zabljak, and they have a thriving tourism industry keeping them afloat, and then there's Savnik, which has finally started to see some life breathed into it thanks to that new highway they finished recently. It just feels like Pluzina is stuck in the rearview mirror.

The maternity ward in Des Moines is seeing a noticeable uptick compared to last year. As of July 24th, they’ve recorded 936 births, whereas by this time in 2013, the count was only 911. I expect we'll see an increase of about 60 more by the end of the month; I'll keep an eye on the numbers over the next few days. After a strong 2012 followed by a minor dip last year, it looks like this positive trend is finally picking back up. Things were looking quite grim there three years ago, but the city has clearly pulled ahead in demographic performance compared to places like Little Rock or Memphis, landing right around where Springfield or Wichita stand. Kudos to the folks in Des Moines! 👍

George Cooper2 said:I honestly think we’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels less like a sudden crash and more like a technical process of decay—one that will play out steadily over the next few decades until everything finally hits its peak disillusionment in maybe 50 or 60 years. It’s all becoming painfully obvious. We’re looking at a catastrophic drop in birth rates; those darkest demographic forecasts? They aren't just possibilities anymore; they're becoming reality. And the economy? Don't hold your breath. America won't suddenly become a powerhouse; instead, it'll just settle into being a hub for cheap labor, where most people are scraping by on $2,500 or $3,000 a month. Honestly, if you actually have a steady job, you should consider yourself lucky. As for crime, how do you even begin to fight it when the icons of youth culture are drug dealers, lowlifes, killers, and nothing more than cheap thrills? Social standards have hit rock bottom in every sense of the word. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, organized crime—they’re all flourishing. Even education has been gutted by predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that has effectively devalued learning down to the absolute lowest common denominator. The brain drain is only going to get worse. You simply can't build a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, and every positive value we once held will have been crushed in favor of affirming the worst impulses of society. In a landscape this chaotic, amoral, and anarchic, how is someone who is actually honest and decent supposed to survive?

So, really... one has to wonder where you're coming from and how much you truly know about the current state of this country, especially regarding our youth.
How can you possibly claim the economy won't pick up and that only those with jobs will be "lucky"? That's just nonsense...
In all honesty—if we're being real here—under the Republican Party, the economy might not see a real spark, but then again, the Republican Party might not even be in power in a year or two. And as for jobs, America, much like the rest of the nations in the Western world, will likely be importing labor in 20 years because there won't be a capable workforce left; they'll just... vanish. So, it's entirely possible that unemployment could actually dip below, say, 5%.
If you came here just to make us weep with pessimistic tales about our youth, you'd be better off heading somewhere else. We know exactly what our youth is like...
Sure, some look up to drug dealers, but others look up to athletes, successful professionals, and decent, hardworking people; and frankly, that's the majority. Did you see back in May during the floods, when tens of thousands of volunteers rushed out to build levees and help those displaced? A huge portion of them were young people.
You're also showing a lack of understanding by blaming the education system solely on the modern curriculum shifts. While that system isn't great, our entire educational foundation is crumbling starting from preschool. Elementary school is failing, and high school isn't any better. If anything, universities might still be the brightest spot in the American educational landscape. The tightening of admissions requirements at almost all major universities in cities like Chicago or Los Angeles is actually intended to create a selection process among future students, ensuring not just anyone can get a degree—much like things used to be.
Changes are happening—and thank goodness for that—but they aren't being driven by the government; rather, they're happening because they *have* to. We had already hit rock bottom—a level beneath the people and the society itself—and that bottom had to be reached so things could correct themselves, how should I put this... naturally. I can't quite explain it perfectly, damn it 🙂 but those who understand, understand...
And honest people can make a living anywhere; it's only the incompetent who struggle.
I grew up right in the heart of the urban sprawl, in the high-rises of a place like Brooklyn, so I know exactly what I'm talking about. I know both the good and the bad sides of my community. I have a very broad perspective on these things.
As for children, of course there will be more—though certainly not a lot given the current circumstances (which can only result in fewer)—but they will be there.
And if we implement solid pro-family policies, why couldn't fertility rates climb to 1.7 or 1.8 by, say, the mid-2020s?
Regarding your opening post, I'd say it's a bit too optimistic, though it does touch on some truths in the middle ground; but overall, it's closer to the...😉

hiddeneagle76 said:So, really... one has to wonder where you're coming from and how much you truly know about the current state of this country, especially regarding our youth.
How can you possibly claim the economy won't pick up and that only those with jobs will be "lucky"? That's just nonsense...
In all honesty—if we're being real here—under the Republican Party, the economy might not see a real spark, but then again, the Republican Party might not even be in power in a year or two. And as for jobs, America, much like the rest of the nations in the Western world, will likely be importing labor in 20 years because there won't be a capable workforce left; they'll just... vanish. So, it's entirely possible that unemployment could actually dip below, say, 5%.
If you came here just to make us weep with pessimistic tales about our youth, you'd be better off heading somewhere else. We know exactly what our youth is like...
Sure, some look up to drug dealers, but others look up to athletes, successful professionals, and decent, hardworking people; and frankly, that's the majority. Did you see back in May during the floods, when tens of thousands of volunteers rushed out to build levees and help those displaced? A huge portion of them were young people.
You're also showing a lack of understanding by blaming the education system solely on the modern curriculum shifts. While that system isn't great, our entire educational foundation is crumbling starting from preschool. Elementary school is failing, and high school isn't any better. If anything, universities might still be the brightest spot in the American educational landscape. The tightening of admissions requirements at almost all major universities in cities like Chicago or Los Angeles is actually intended to create a selection process among future students, ensuring not just anyone can get a degree—much like things used to be.
Changes are happening—and thank goodness for that—but they aren't being driven by the government; rather, they're happening because they *have* to. We had already hit rock bottom—a level beneath the people and the society itself—and that bottom had to be reached so things could correct themselves, how should I put this... naturally. I can't quite explain it perfectly, damn it 🙂 but those who understand, understand...
And honest people can make a living anywhere; it's only the incompetent who struggle.
I grew up right in the heart of the urban sprawl, in the high-rises of a place like Brooklyn, so I know exactly what I'm talking about. I know both the good and the bad sides of my community. I have a very broad perspective on these things.
As for children, of course there will be more—though certainly not a lot given the current circumstances (which can only result in fewer)—but they will be there.
And if we implement solid pro-family policies, why couldn't fertility rates climb to 1.7 or 1.8 by, say, the mid-2020s?
Regarding your opening post, I'd say it's a bit too optimistic, though it does touch on some truths in the middle ground; but overall, it's closer to the...😉

To answer the bolded parts: I'm from Des Moines, so I know exactly what the social climate is like.
Nowadays, most people in America are working for $300 a month and they're happy just to have a paycheck. My forecast, based on actual economic indicators and demographic shifts, is that rural towns will completely dry up. America will essentially become enclaves around a few major cities, with the most vital corridor being between Des Moines and Chicago.
The US is turning into a land of cheap labor because, through privatization, it sold off and gutted its entire manufacturing base. In countries like this, capital flight is a regular occurrence whenever there's a global crisis. It's highly likely we'll need to import labor in a decade, but it will be cheap, unskilled labor. It won't be young, educated people.

Drug dealers have a highly developed business and entire networks in America. They've become role models for the youth. Recently, I was at a club and witnessed a couple of drug dealers walk in with their "entourage" and sponsors, causing a literal eruption of excitement in the room. They don't command that kind of respect in society, not even close to professors or doctors. Drugs are everywhere, as are the addicts, and our cities are right at the top of that list.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/us/amsterdam-style-trends

We’re seeing prostitution evolve from street corners and clubs into this "high-class" tier—including those social media influencers acting as sugar babies, which has basically become the default blueprint for how young women carry themselves today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/culture-festivals-vs-modern-times

What we are actually looking at is a deeply ingrained cultural pattern. It is incredibly stubborn, and honestly, there isn't a single sign suggesting things might ever pivot back toward decency.
The nation's moral compass hasn't just drifted; it’s been completely destroyed.

Then there is the education system, which is arguably where the rot is most visible. Private colleges are popping up on every corner, churning out degrees overnight. Suddenly, anyone with a pulse can walk around with a diploma—something that was practically impossible just a decade ago.
Meanwhile, our state universities have gutted their own standards just to compete with the private sector; they can't afford to lose the revenue if non-subsidized students jump ship to the private institutions.
It has all devolved into a pursuit of profit and prestige titles. Real learning? Actual knowledge? Those aren't the priorities anymore, and frankly, nobody seems capable of regulating the madness.
We are witnessing a hyper-production of questionable PhDs. It’s a systematic devaluation of an educational framework that actually meant something back in the mid-2000s.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/social-impact-on-america.html

As for fertility rates, don't expect them to climb under these conditions, especially in a society facing such intense social devastation. We are seeing much smaller generations stepping onto the stage, which makes the fertility question absolutely critical if we want to slow down this decline. If birth rates stay where they are—which is the realistic expectation—the combination of shrinking younger cohorts will lead to nothing short of catastrophic results.

George Cooper2 said:To answer the bolded parts: I'm from Des Moines, so I know exactly what the social climate is like.
Nowadays, most people in America are working for $300 a month and they're happy just to have a paycheck. My forecast, based on actual economic indicators and demographic shifts, is that rural towns will completely dry up. America will essentially become enclaves around a few major cities, with the most vital corridor being between Des Moines and Chicago.
The US is turning into a land of cheap labor because, through privatization, it sold off and gutted its entire manufacturing base. In countries like this, capital flight is a regular occurrence whenever there's a global crisis. It's highly likely we'll need to import labor in a decade, but it will be cheap, unskilled labor. It won't be young, educated people.

Drug dealers have a highly developed business and entire networks in America. They've become role models for the youth. Recently, I was at a club and witnessed a couple of drug dealers walk in with their "entourage" and sponsors, causing a literal eruption of excitement in the room. They don't command that kind of respect in society, not even close to professors or doctors. Drugs are everywhere, as are the addicts, and our cities are right at the top of that list.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/us/amsterdam-style-trends

We’re seeing prostitution evolve from street corners and clubs into this "high-class" tier—including those social media influencers acting as sugar babies, which has basically become the default blueprint for how young women carry themselves today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/culture-festivals-vs-modern-times

What we are actually looking at is a deeply ingrained cultural pattern. It is incredibly stubborn, and honestly, there isn't a single sign suggesting things might ever pivot back toward decency.
The nation's moral compass hasn't just drifted; it’s been completely destroyed.

Then there is the education system, which is arguably where the rot is most visible. Private colleges are popping up on every corner, churning out degrees overnight. Suddenly, anyone with a pulse can walk around with a diploma—something that was practically impossible just a decade ago.
Meanwhile, our state universities have gutted their own standards just to compete with the private sector; they can't afford to lose the revenue if non-subsidized students jump ship to the private institutions.
It has all devolved into a pursuit of profit and prestige titles. Real learning? Actual knowledge? Those aren't the priorities anymore, and frankly, nobody seems capable of regulating the madness.
We are witnessing a hyper-production of questionable PhDs. It’s a systematic devaluation of an educational framework that actually meant something back in the mid-2000s.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/social-impact-on-america.html

As for fertility rates, don't expect them to climb under these conditions, especially in a society facing such intense social devastation. We are seeing much smaller generations stepping onto the stage, which makes the fertility question absolutely critical if we want to slow down this decline. If birth rates stay where they are—which is the realistic expectation—the combination of shrinking younger cohorts will lead to nothing short of catastrophic results.

Looking at how things are moving, I actually think rural areas might find a future again. People might realize it's better to live in the country, eat healthy, and enjoy a quieter, safer environment. Especially now that jobs and prospects in the big cities are drying up...
The math is simple: why would I work myself to death in some cramped office for $300 when I can grow my own food and enjoy all the perks I mentioned? I'm tired of buying junk food at Walmart or whatever else when I could just produce it myself.

It might sound like some total post-apocalyptic movie plot—but honestly, things are definitely heading that way...

Peter Edwards said:Looking at how things are moving, I actually think rural areas might find a future again. People might realize it's better to live in the country, eat healthy, and enjoy a quieter, safer environment. Especially now that jobs and prospects in the big cities are drying up...
The math is simple: why would I work myself to death in some cramped office for $300 when I can grow my own food and enjoy all the perks I mentioned? I'm tired of buying junk food at Walmart or whatever else when I could just produce it myself.

It might sound like some total post-apocalyptic movie plot—but honestly, things are definitely heading that way...

Moving back to the country is a fantasy.
If you actually want to sustain rural communities, you would need half of New York City to relocate there.
Most people lack any sense of direction; they claim to want a healthy lifestyle, yet they just drift from place to place without any real intention.

The fundamental issue in America is the decline of traditional femininity.
Americans have lost their way regarding women.
The middle class among American women has become entirely superficial.

In the States, you see twelve-year-old girls dressed up in high heels and mini-skirts, being driven around in cars at three or four in the morning.
Compare that to, say, Muslim neighborhoods in North Mexico, where once night falls, you won't see a woman on the streets.

Mexico 2013.

Mexicans 54581/85851
Mexicans 130/357
Albanians 625/363
Canadians 2091/862
Canadians 2040/4773
Muslims 579/392
Bulgarians 91/430
Bunjevci 130/288
Mexicans 102/230
Romani 2463/729
Rusyns 95/238
Slovaks 378/819
Americans 296/1139

gentleranger10 said:Mexico 2013.

Mexicans 54581/85851
Mexicans 130/357
Albanians 625/363
Canadians 2091/862
Canadians 2040/4773
Muslims 579/392
Bulgarians 91/430
Bunjevci 130/288
Mexicans 102/230
Romani 2463/729
Rusyns 95/238
Slovaks 378/819
Americans 296/1139

Mexicans at 83.25% births and 85.65% deaths. Big drop in Canadians, Muslims, and Romani compared to 2012. How many unidentified or unknown people are there? Usually, there's about 1,000 every year.

gentleranger10 said:Mexico 2013.

Mexicans 54581/85851
Mexicans 130/357
Albanians 625/363
Canadians 2091/862
Canadians 2040/4773
Muslims 579/392
Bulgarians 91/430
Bunjevci 130/288
Mexicans 102/230
Romani 2463/729
Rusyns 95/238
Slovaks 378/819
Americans 296/1139

Does anyone happen to remember how things looked back in 2012?

Here’s the data from 2012. Mexicans saw a dip, going from 56,237 in 2012 (83.62%) down to 54,581 in 2013 (83.25%). Canadians and Muslims combined were at 2,744 (4.05%) in 2012 and 2,670 (4.05%) in 2013. Romani went from 2,506 (3.75%) in 2012 to 2,463 (3.75%) in 2013, etc. That puts the drop for Mexicans at 2.95% compared to 2012. Canadians and Muslims dropped by 2.7%, while the Romani dropped by 1.8%. In my last post, I claimed Canadians, Muslims, and Romani were seeing a massive decline. They aren't. Not really. That wasn't a huge drop. My bad—I was just typing from memory without actually checking the 2012 numbers.

In Mexico, birth rates are actually climbing in areas where the Albanian and Muslim populations live. Meanwhile, everyone else is seeing death rates outpace births. Even the Canadians are seeing a decline, and Canada itself is dealing with a major demographic crisis. As for the Mexicans, birth rates are dropping, and a huge number of young people are just heading overseas to find work.