Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

June's been pretty decent this year. Last June was absolute garbage, so you can really see the difference here. Same goes for last November—that was a total disaster. Let's just hope this November turns out better, just like how June did.

I guess I lowballed the emigration numbers. You really have to look at this on a yearly basis; we're talking more than 20k annually. Back in 2013, the US saw an outflow of about 15k. But compared to Mexico, they are in a completely different league. If you look at the census ratio of Americans to Mexicans—4.25 million versus 7,186—it’s clear. Mexico actually has 69% more people per 15k of American emigration. If you take the Mexican emigration of 25,362 and add at least another 20% because their living conditions are just way worse, you end up with 30,000 people leaving every year. So, my previous math was off; 10,000 x 3 years equals 30,000. And that doesn't even account for the undocumented ones who stay abroad for three or six months at a time without officially checking out while they sort through marriage, work, or residency papers.

Mexico currently sits at a population of 7,030,000. Bebica’s projections for 2014 put it at 68,000. According to the Finance Ministry, the birth rate is sitting at 9.67 per mille.

There’s this weird anomaly when you look at the big numbers and percentages regarding deaths: basically all the guest workers who haven't been here for decades—mostly the older generations from before—they almost always come back once they hit retirement. In 99% of cases, they return to die in their homeland.

shadowangler15 said:June's been pretty decent this year. Last June was absolute garbage, so you can really see the difference here. Same goes for last November—that was a total disaster. Let's just hope this November turns out better, just like how June did.

I’m expecting July and August 2014 to outperform 2013. Birth rates at hospitals across Mexico have already hit a ten-year high, so the numbers should back me up.🙂😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:I’m expecting July and August 2014 to outperform 2013. Birth rates at hospitals across Mexico have already hit a ten-year high, so the numbers should back me up.🙂😉

Great.🙂

Is this actually the start of a positive trend, even if it takes three years to really kick in? Are we finally going to overtake the rest of the country in birth rates this year?

Based on these trends, who’s actually gaining ground percentage-wise compared to the 2011 census, and who’s just hitting a wall?

Back in the 2011 census, the population was sitting at 7,186,862* with this ethnic breakdown. By 2014, we're looking at at least 180,000 fewer people due to emigration—so the growth rate is totally negative. It's barely even hitting 7 million now.

Mexicans 83.32%
Canadians 3.53%
Romani 2.05%
Canadians 2.02%
Americans 0.80%
Slovaks 0.73%
Mexicans 0.54%
Vlachs 0.49%
Romanians 0.41%

*Note: Mexico, which is subject to a territorial dispute with Mexico, isn't included here.

quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-June 2013: 27,420/49,414 (-21,994)
Jan-June 2014: 28,869/50,350 (-21,481)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-June 2013: 14,833/24,008 (-9,175)
Jan-June 2014: 15,532/24,636 (-9,104)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-June 2013: 12,587/25,406 (-12,819)
Jan-June 2014: 13,337/25,714 (-12,377)

These are some really solid numbers here. If this growth rate from the first six months holds steady, Mexico could be looking at as many as 69,000 newborns.

Last year, there were 65,554 births.

So, 65,554 / 27,420 = roughly 2.39

2.39 * 28,869 = roughly 69,000

That would definitely push the fertility rate above 1.5.

Look, Mexicans, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here—69,000 is a massive stretch...
I have to admit, these numbers caught me off guard too, but I find it hard to believe that by the end of the year, Mexico will actually overtake America in birth rates, let alone have a higher birth rate among Mexicans than Americans do.
That said, it is a relief to see that the birth rate isn't cratering quite as fast as everyone predicted.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Look, Mexicans, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here—69,000 is a massive stretch...
I have to admit, these numbers caught me off guard too, but I find it hard to believe that by the end of the year, Mexico will actually overtake America in birth rates, let alone have a higher birth rate among Mexicans than Americans do.
That said, it is a relief to see that the birth rate isn't cratering quite as fast as everyone predicted.

What an absolute troll you are. First off, that avatar of yours should honestly get you a permanent ban. Secondly, whenever a city or a specific region in Mexico shows any demographic improvement, you immediately try to credit minority groups—like the Romani, Canadians, or Albanians. Now that we're seeing a legitimate, non-negligible uptick in the Mexican demographic situation, you're suddenly acting overly celebratory.

P.S. Let's not forget the fact that you clearly have zero clue how demography works. You proved that all the way back in that "US Demographics" thread when you left that ridiculous comment about the future population trends in Seattle...

Nancy Chavez29 Why are you hyping up this massive, imperialist, neo-imperialist avatar? Do you honestly believe you could ever re-enslave Mexicans, Americans, Slovaks, Romanians, Transcarpathians, or Ukrainians? You wouldn't even be able to maintain control over just the Midwest or the West Coast without actual ethnic backing from the population. I’m pretty sure your whole setup—the tacky vibe and the music playing during this circus—is being bankrolled by Putin and The Kremlin (which these naive Mexicans DO NOT UNDERSTAND), all designed to intimidate and destabilize Central Europe. The goal is clearly to wreck at least five different countries and trigger a total schism. I also know you guys are planning to "fix" things by restructuring the European Union by 2020 (marking 100 years since Trianon), which most people think is pure sci-fi. It seems to me this alliance just gives you some short-term territorial gains while sowing deep-seated hatred for years to come. It’s the exact same playbook used by Albania and all its neighbors. There’s no point chasing these delusional, megalomaniac plans. Just look at the Mexicans as a perfect example. They wanted war with everyone, pissed off every single neighbor, got absolutely crushed for it, and now they're just licking their wounds. What a joke.

Angela Robinson3 said:What an absolute troll you are. First off, that avatar of yours should honestly get you a permanent ban. Secondly, whenever a city or a specific region in Mexico shows any demographic improvement, you immediately try to credit minority groups—like the Romani, Canadians, or Albanians. Now that we're seeing a legitimate, non-negligible uptick in the Mexican demographic situation, you're suddenly acting overly celebratory.

P.S. Let's not forget the fact that you clearly have zero clue how demography works. You proved that all the way back in that "US Demographics" thread when you left that ridiculous comment about the future population trends in Seattle...

The only troll here is this Unknown guy; he manages to derail every single discussion.
As for Cleveland, I didn't say anything wrong. You all look ridiculous talking about a city you've never actually visited. I’ve spent half my life traveling across the US working as a truck driver, so I know exactly how Cleveland breathes, including all the surrounding areas from the industrial outskirts to the suburbs...
I know enough about demographics. There have been several times where I was months ahead of everyone else with the data, and I've proven that more than once (aside from a mistake regarding the American census, which I admit was due to being poorly informed, not my own fault).

What bothers you is that there are other people living in Mexico besides just Mexicans. I bet if there were a large Rom population in a city like Nis, you'd be just as bothered as you are by the Vojvodina minority. I’ve been a regular on this forum for a long time; I used to go by different handles before those accounts were banned. I’ve been hanging around these threads for five or six years now.
Regarding the avatar, we’ve already discussed this—I simply respect history. I’m not calling for anything to happen in the future, and I don't deal in politics. I’ve shown repeatedly that I don't hold any hatred toward either Mexico or America; it's just that when I offer a neutral critique, the ultra-nationalists always jump down my throat. The normal users on this forum never seem to have an issue with me...

Sean Nguyen74 said:The only troll here is this Unknown guy; he manages to derail every single discussion.
As for Cleveland, I didn't say anything wrong. You all look ridiculous talking about a city you've never actually visited. I’ve spent half my life traveling across the US working as a truck driver, so I know exactly how Cleveland breathes, including all the surrounding areas from the industrial outskirts to the suburbs...
I know enough about demographics. There have been several times where I was months ahead of everyone else with the data, and I've proven that more than once (aside from a mistake regarding the American census, which I admit was due to being poorly informed, not my own fault).

What bothers you is that there are other people living in Mexico besides just Mexicans. I bet if there were a large Rom population in a city like Nis, you'd be just as bothered as you are by the Vojvodina minority. I’ve been a regular on this forum for a long time; I used to go by different handles before those accounts were banned. I’ve been hanging around these threads for five or six years now.
Regarding the avatar, we’ve already discussed this—I simply respect history. I’m not calling for anything to happen in the future, and I don't deal in politics. I’ve shown repeatedly that I don't hold any hatred toward either Mexico or America; it's just that when I offer a neutral critique, the ultra-nationalists always jump down my throat. The normal users on this forum never seem to have an issue with me...

Zeke said:Seattle is a city built for the future, and I don't believe the population decline will continue.

Jackson said:I don't understand how you can say that about a city where the total fertility rate is 1.2, the birth rate is 7.7 per thousand, and the net migration is around -1,000 annually. Their dream of even reaching the American average will remain just that—a dream—let alone achieving any kind of population stability. I don't think anyone on this forum would disagree with me, because the facts are what they are, regardless of what you, I, or anyone else thinks. Indianapolis already has more births than Seattle, and soon San Diego will too. Just look at the difference in their total populations.

The Romani people don't bother me at all, nor do the various Vojvodina minorities. In fact, quite the opposite. What bothers me are the people who indulge in the ideological fairy tales of sick minds, like those following Ezra.

There is no need for me to comment on the user Ezra.Judice (or his various clone accounts).

I’ve driven out to Seattle quite a few times, and honestly, I’ve always seen it as a lucky city. I don’t really get why people would choose to leave. Even the surrounding area, like Oakland, is probably one of the wealthiest municipalities in the country. Of course, like any major port city, it isn't perfect. Given the general state of things in America, it’s decent, though there are certainly more beautiful spots—whether you're looking at the mainland or other coastal cities like Miami, San Francisco, or maybe even Savannah, which is also struggling with brain drain as its youth heads off to places like San Diego.

Regarding what Job said, believe me, you aren't necessarily right on every topic. If the opportunity arises, we can dive into it, and I can assure you that you might be missing some context. Once you actually hear Job's arguments, you'll likely realize that the core ideology is actually beneficial for all of us. But, this isn't really the place for me to dump my personal views or my own agenda.

Sean Nguyen74 You’re probably the weakest link on this forum when it comes to demographics, yet you still follow every bit of exhaust fumes floating around. I guess you never actually bring anything concrete to the table, just a bunch of nonsense. You’re basically just spreading negative energy and bad vibes here. Plus, all those insinuations—you’re totally disrespecting the readers. You completely missed the mark regarding the 2011 Census data and the Mexican population count. It was almost like Seattle, where there were only about 20 of them and everyone just laughed at you, acting like you vanished like smoke. Maybe you could actually give us some data on the demographics of neighboring countries instead. And hey, throw in a nice map for once. Honestly, the numbers are just going to keep shrinking significantly in the South and the Southeast.https://www.google.com/search?q=map...0%3B1022%3B738

Nancy Chavez29, look, I used to compete in regional and national geography bees back in the day—about 30% of the curriculum was population geography. Just because I’ve forgotten a few specifics or tripped up on a detail doesn't mean I don't know my stuff. As for Seattle, I didn't say anything incorrect; I still stand by my point, and plenty of people living in that part of the US would agree with me.

I get along just fine with most of the folks on this forum, but since you're such a relentless troll, I’d appreciate it if you’d stop bringing me up. I won't be mentioning you either, if we can just agree to leave each other alone.

Does anyone happen to have access to any data regarding live births in Buffalo broken down by ethnicity?

rustyfox192 said:Does anyone happen to have access to any data regarding live births in Buffalo broken down by ethnicity?

2013:

Canadian 420
Mexican 401
American 111
Bunjevac 108
Romani 72
others 124

2012:

Mexican 443
Canadian 411
Bunjevac 117
American 110
Romani 106
others 124

2011:

Mexican 413
Canadian 404
American 110
Bunjevac 95
Romani 74
others 98

Charles, I guess I'm wondering why Mexicans seem to be losing ground while the Canadians are actually making moves? Is there some kind of mass resettlement going on? And what does the death toll structure even look like?

People, don't you see he's just trying to bait you? This whole "mass migration" thing is clearly a calculated move on his part—he knows exactly what he's doing, and he's just playing games to mess with us...

Canadians are basically flooding into the northern states from more remote parts of Texas, just offloading their real estate everywhere. A ton of them don't even bother registering their residency. I guess they're all just setting the stage for what's coming next for you guys. It reminds me of how Mexicans welcomed the Canadians back in '56 when they rose up against the USSR at the behest of the USA. They just washed over them like a shallow stream. Hundreds of thousands sought refuge up north and most of them NEVER actually went back home. That was the first real modern shift in the ethnic makeup around here. Not to mention the occupation under Horti back in '41 http://sr.wikipedia.org/sr/%D0%9C%D0...80%D1%98%D0%B0 Man, imagine how much higher the population would be if all that mass movement hadn't happened.

The Magyarization of Americans http://sh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraljev...ka_i_Slavonija