Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Word is gas exports might be heading back toward Germany again.
Politics isn't just about what happens this week or even this month—it’s a long game. You gotta make moves that aren't just impulsive reactions.

The Russians know damn well they can't pull this off without the European Union.
Same goes for them, really—but if things start falling apart, Europe will find a way to manage on its own.

I guess I should probably start by saying... well, whatever. There isn't much to say, really. Just sitting here thinking about how things always seem to go sideways eventually, you know? It’s like, you think you have a handle on stuff, then boom—total chaos. Anyway, just my two cents, I suppose. Maybe I'm just overthinking it. Who knows?

casualtiger2 said:Great breakdown of the situation here.
Six months into the war: What Putin wanted vs. what he actually got.
Is Russia any safer, wealthier, or more powerful now?
The reality check:

"Demilitarization" of Ukraine? After six months of fighting, Ukraine has actually walked away with tens of billions of dollars worth of cutting-edge Western hardware they never even had before. Just the latest round of aid from the U.S. government—covering air defense systems, surface-to-air missiles, radar, and artillery—is estimated at $2.98 billion.

"Denazification" of Ukraine? Honestly, it seems like the only people who saw any Nazis were the Russian intelligence officers out scouting. If anyone else did spot a Nazi, there were about as many in Ukraine as there are on Times Square during Adolf Hitler's birthday. Not one single journalist out of the dozens reporting from the front lines has run into any Nazis or fascists. But, judging by the rhetoric coming from various Russian officials and their proxies, it looks like they’re doing their best to recycle clips from Hitler's speeches.

Protecting the Russian-speaking populations in the east and south? Where exactly were they "protected"—in the ruins of Mariupol, where over 89% of the population spoke Russian? Or in Kharkiv, which gets pounded week after week, killing civilians, despite 95% of the people there speaking Russian? Or maybe in Mykolaiv, where over 50% of the population is native Russian-speaking, yet it's being hammered by cluster bombs, according to a Philadelphia Inquirer reporter on the ground? It's a hell of a defense strategy: just pile up the bodies of the people you claim to be protecting.
...
Every single day this war drags on, it costs taxpayers about $500 million. Back in July, Department of the Treasury stats showed a federal budget deficit of 892 billion rubles—a 22.5% drop in oil and gas revenue despite high energy prices, plus a nearly 30% slump in tax collections. We’re looking at an expected GDP loss of 8% by the end of the year, with the economy likely shrinking for another year or two.

So, we’re looking at the fallout from someone’s sick obsession with flipping the global order upside down. Look, maybe the current system isn't perfect, but it's lightyears better than what Vladimir Putin is trying to pull off. He wants this corrupt mess run by a tiny clique of elites—basically like that old-school Czarist era where a few guys call all the shots on who lives and dies. It's messed up. He’s basically gutted half of Ukraine and forced over 10 million people to flee their homes. And the body count? It's insane. You've got probably 40,000 to 50,000 young Russian kids dead, maybe 100,000 Russians left disabled... then you look at the Ukrainian side, and it's even worse. Probably 100,000 Ukrainian civilians killed—I mean, some estimates say over 50,000 died just in Mariupol alone. Plus 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers gone, and another 60,000 to 70,000 wounded. I guess you have to ask yourself... was this really worth it? Was this the price he wanted to pay for whatever result he thinks he's getting? One thing is for sure: he just made an enemy out of everyone for the next hundred years. He'll probably go down in history as one of the biggest criminals of the 3rd millennium. And honestly, Europe will survive without Russian gas and oil. That much is certain.

I’d love to see how Canada plays this tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to watch them try to back a system that basically forced them back into line back in '56 when they tried to stick their noses out of their little hole. If Putin’s plan actually works, they're going to find themselves right back in that same spot. But hey, now they’ve got the NATO and EU umbrellas to hide under, so they can act all big and tough with their petty little agendas since they know they've got backup. Honestly, it reminds me of how Hitler had those same kinds of plans that lasted about six years... we'll just have to wait and see how long his "twin brother" lasts with this whole "denazification" scheme for Eastern and Central Europe.

William Anderson5 said:Vladimir Putin clearly views this as a temporary setback that Russia can weather—one that will eventually trigger energy crises across the European Union. He expects that once the public starts feeling the squeeze, the unified political front regarding Ukraine and Russia will fracture by next spring, leading to a normalization of relations...

But that's just wishful thinking. Putin doesn't seem to realize he’s underestimated the EU (and why wouldn't he, considering the most powerful politician in the EU was the naive Merkel until recently?), nor does he grasp how the EU actually perceives this conflict. He might even be deluding himself into believing that Europe doesn't truly want to support Ukraine and is only doing so because the USA is forcing their hand...

First off, European nations will politically survive the winter. There won't be a policy shift regarding Russian aggression because everyone in the West understands that this conflict is fundamentally about the survival of the entire democratic structure within the EU. Put simply, if Ukraine falls, the conflict could easily expand, potentially leading to the collapse of the EU, NATO, and the very foundation of Western democracy. Even if that doesn't happen, it would result in a massive expansion of Russian influence across Europe, and I don't need to explain what that means for us here...

Second, Russia cannot sustain these kinds of relations with the West in the long run. Most of the Russian population looks toward Europe; they see themselves as a European people. All this talk about pivoting to Asia, BRICS, or China is mostly nonsense. Pivoting an entire nation in that direction takes decades. Once Russians realize the sheer scale of that undertaking, they'll likely bail and head back toward Europe. It's possible Putin envisions Russia as such a powerhouse that the rest of the world will naturally gravitate toward them without any effort, but that's a distant fantasy. Long-term, Russia's strength will continue to wane, not just against the EU and China, but against India and others as well, leaving Russia unable to exert any real influence...

Angela Merkel wasn't naive; I suspect she made a different mistake entirely. She assumed Putin viewed the world through a German lens: business first. When business is done, money is made, which supposedly brings prosperity. In Germany, doing business brings prosperity to the whole state; in the Federal Republic, it might benefit a smaller circle, but it remains interesting for them (and acceptable to Germans, provided the Russians are doing well too). However, Putin isn't someone who settles for mere prosperity. He demands more, and the more he gets, the more he craves. There is no limit to those ambitions unless they are checked by force.
For the European Union and the West in general, this is an elegant solution: the Ukrainians fight and die for their own sovereignty and freedom, while simultaneously achieving the ultimate goal of halting Putin's aggression against everything he currently deems weaker than himself.
It is difficult to say what the Russian citizens want right now. Likely, they first want the senseless war to stop—the one where their own sons are dying. I agree that the fantasy of "the East" as a future prospect for Russia is a step backward; the European Union and the West remain the certain path forward for them. This version of the West and its standards is completely unacceptable to Putin, because his system has no place left in the West. Yes, such leaders existed in the West before, but Putin's politics are roughly a century out of date.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Angela Merkel wasn't naive; I suspect she made a different mistake entirely. She assumed Putin viewed the world through a German lens: business first. When business is done, money is made, which supposedly brings prosperity. In Germany, doing business brings prosperity to the whole state; in the Federal Republic, it might benefit a smaller circle, but it remains interesting for them (and acceptable to Germans, provided the Russians are doing well too). However, Putin isn't someone who settles for mere prosperity. He demands more, and the more he gets, the more he craves. There is no limit to those ambitions unless they are checked by force.
For the European Union and the West in general, this is an elegant solution: the Ukrainians fight and die for their own sovereignty and freedom, while simultaneously achieving the ultimate goal of halting Putin's aggression against everything he currently deems weaker than himself.
It is difficult to say what the Russian citizens want right now. Likely, they first want the senseless war to stop—the one where their own sons are dying. I agree that the fantasy of "the East" as a future prospect for Russia is a step backward; the European Union and the West remain the certain path forward for them. This version of the West and its standards is completely unacceptable to Putin, because his system has no place left in the West. Yes, such leaders existed in the West before, but Putin's politics are roughly a century out of date.

And that’s exactly how Putin sold it to her. That's where the naivety lies. People have been sounding the alarm about Europe's reliance on Russian energy for years. Instead of diversifying, Germany just built another pipeline right up until the aggression started, without even putting in an LNG terminal (we even have one here in the States).
It wasn't just naive; it was incredibly foolish...

Amanda Allen4 said:Putin is far too busy to even show up for Gorbachev's funeral

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...busy-to-attend

“ Although the ceremony will include certain “state funeral elements,” a White House spokesperson noted that the President, Vladimir Putin, won’t be in attendance—all because of his supposedly packed “work schedule.”

Typical behavior from Putin. Not a surprise to me.

The real question regarding Putin, however, is whether anyone will even know where his grave is located when the time comes.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Typical behavior from Putin. Not a surprise to me.

The real question regarding Putin, however, is whether anyone will even know where his grave is located when the time comes.

They'll probably just canonize him or something. Saint Vladimir.

William Anderson5 said:And that’s exactly how Putin sold it to her. That's where the naivety lies. People have been sounding the alarm about Europe's reliance on Russian energy for years. Instead of diversifying, Germany just built another pipeline right up until the aggression started, without even putting in an LNG terminal (we even have one here in the States).
It wasn't just naive; it was incredibly foolish...

Honestly, it’s not just Merkel—it’s the whole West. If we're being real, Putin has been playing this incredibly smart game for a long time, poking the bear just enough to stay under the radar without triggering a massive response, mostly because the West kept brushing him off like, "Eh, don't sweat the small stuff."

But he’s actually been cooking this up for years, even way back before his first move in Georgia in 2008.

Back in July 2007, he suspended Russia's involvement in the Conventional arms treaty in Europe—you know, that agreement signed by NATO and the Warsaw Pact toward the end of their run—which ended up causing a huge drop in conventional weapons across the European continent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty...rces_in_Europe

Even then, he was pushing for NATO to scale back its armaments below the agreed levels just to get Russia back in the fold, while simultaneously demanding that Russia be allowed to beef up its military strength on the other side of the Urals.

gentlerider7 said:They'll probably just canonize him or something. Saint Vladimir.

Unlikely... 🙂 He’s probably already looking forward to getting to Kharkiv.

William Anderson5 said:And that’s exactly how Putin sold it to her. That's where the naivety lies. People have been sounding the alarm about Europe's reliance on Russian energy for years. Instead of diversifying, Germany just built another pipeline right up until the aggression started, without even putting in an LNG terminal (we even have one here in the States).
It wasn't just naive; it was incredibly foolish...

Failing to diversify supply is pure stupidity. Germany's exclusive focus on buying gas from the Russian Federation was likely just a way to settle some old political debts. In politics, nothing is ever as simple as it appears on the surface. On the other hand, they could have at least partially diversified their gas supply without breaking the bank. They could have invested in an LNG terminal and leased some capacity. They had the option, but they chose not to—likely because they didn't want to play both sides. Now, reality is hitting them hard. But hey, I'm sure everything will turn out fine in the end.

Is Kadyrov finally packing his bags?

"The leader of the Chechen Republic of Ramzan Kadyrov dropped a bombshell in a video posted to his Telegram channel, basically calling himself a 'long-timer' among the heads of the various states within the Russian Federation.

He pointed out that he’s been running the show in that region for fifteen years now.

“I guess my time is up before they kick me out. <…> We've actually already started talking about it,” Kadyrov said.

In the video description, he went on to say that he’s "personally realized I've been sitting in this seat for way too long." The Chechen leader also made sure to mention that, in his own opinion, he’s "certainly earned an indefinite and much-needed break."

Not too long ago, Kadyrov was rambling about his dream of visiting the United Kingdom—a dream he says he’s been "nurturing" for quite some time.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

William Anderson5 said:And that’s exactly how Putin sold it to her. That's where the naivety lies. People have been sounding the alarm about Europe's reliance on Russian energy for years. Instead of diversifying, Germany just built another pipeline right up until the aggression started, without even putting in an LNG terminal (we even have one here in the States).
It wasn't just naive; it was incredibly foolish...

Remember when the "Three Seas Initiative" was the big topic? It was all about the US pulling closer to the Višegrad group, focusing on building an LNG terminal—not some tiny floating thing, either—but certain people, like the ones acting shocked today that Ukraine didn't just fold the second Russia attacked, kept blocking it. They wanted everything connected via pipelines to LNG terminals in Poland and Lithuania. But then, right when things were moving, Merkel triggered that massive migrant wave from Turkey along that exact same route that was supposed to link up Central Europe. Suddenly, everyone forgot about LNG terminals, pipelines, and digitalization, and instead, we're all talking about razor wire and "engineers" or "doctors" coming over from Syria. Meanwhile, in total silence, they finished Nord Stream 1 and almost wrapped up Nord Stream 2 with a capacity of 110 billion cubic meters. Just for context, our American floating LNG unit only has a capacity of 1.8 billion cubic meters, and it was supposed to be a real alternative—a new supply route to keep the energy sector in Europe stable. So yeah, that’s the grand result of the "naive girl from East Germany."

If you look at things from Putin's perspective, you don't actually have to commit a real crime. Simply toppling his pawn or turning your back on the West is considered an offense in itself. The Russian propaganda machine will go to any lengths to paint you as a Nazi; they'll invent some imaginary genocide against Russians, even though, frankly, he couldn't care less about the people living in Russia.

gentlerider7 said:Is Kadyrov finally packing his bags?

"The leader of the Chechen Republic of Ramzan Kadyrov dropped a bombshell in a video posted to his Telegram channel, basically calling himself a 'long-timer' among the heads of the various states within the Russian Federation.

He pointed out that he’s been running the show in that region for fifteen years now.

“I guess my time is up before they kick me out. <…> We've actually already started talking about it,” Kadyrov said.

In the video description, he went on to say that he’s "personally realized I've been sitting in this seat for way too long." The Chechen leader also made sure to mention that, in his own opinion, he’s "certainly earned an indefinite and much-needed break."

Not too long ago, Kadyrov was rambling about his dream of visiting the United Kingdom—a dream he says he’s been "nurturing" for quite some time.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Maybe it's time for things to heat up in Chechnya again.

Steven Kim35 said:If you look at things from Putin's perspective, you don't actually have to commit a real crime. Simply toppling his pawn or turning your back on the West is considered an offense in itself. The Russian propaganda machine will go to any lengths to paint you as a Nazi; they'll invent some imaginary genocide against Russians, even though, frankly, he couldn't care less about the people living in Russia.

If he actually cared about Russians, he wouldn't be sending young men into a war where most won't come home—and those who do return won't exactly be the same people.

Could Kadyrov be looking to take down Putin, and without his protection, would the Chechens actually move to take him out?

bluemason3 said:Could Kadyrov be looking to take down Putin, and without his protection, would the Chechens actually move to take him out?

Or maybe he's just talking nonsense again after visiting that... uh, harem, or maybe he's just trolling us. Honestly, at this rate, even the hardcore fans might start running for the hills.

By the way, this video was setting some kind of record for DPT (don per minute) on this forum.

gentlerider7 said:Is Kadyrov finally packing his bags?

"The leader of the Chechen Republic of Ramzan Kadyrov dropped a bombshell in a video posted to his Telegram channel, basically calling himself a 'long-timer' among the heads of the various states within the Russian Federation.

He pointed out that he’s been running the show in that region for fifteen years now.

“I guess my time is up before they kick me out. <…> We've actually already started talking about it,” Kadyrov said.

In the video description, he went on to say that he’s "personally realized I've been sitting in this seat for way too long." The Chechen leader also made sure to mention that, in his own opinion, he’s "certainly earned an indefinite and much-needed break."

Not too long ago, Kadyrov was rambling about his dream of visiting the United Kingdom—a dream he says he’s been "nurturing" for quite some time.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

If God wills it, the United Kingdom will host him.

bluemason3 said:Could Kadyrov be looking to take down Putin, and without his protection, would the Chechens actually move to take him out?

Honestly, I feel like even just seeing Putin's grip on power start to slip would be enough to end him—especially if those rumors about Kadyrov's guys getting wiped out like flies in Donbas are actually true. It’s simple math: once his main tool for keeping everyone in line is broken, he's basically done.

Susan Collins3 said:I guess I should probably start by saying... well, whatever. There isn't much to say, really. Just sitting here thinking about how things always seem to go sideways eventually, you know? It’s like, you think you have a handle on stuff, then boom—total chaos. Anyway, just my two cents, I suppose. Maybe I'm just overthinking it. Who knows?

So, we’re looking at the fallout from someone’s sick obsession with flipping the global order upside down. Look, maybe the current system isn't perfect, but it's lightyears better than what Vladimir Putin is trying to pull off. He wants this corrupt mess run by a tiny clique of elites—basically like that old-school Czarist era where a few guys call all the shots on who lives and dies. It's messed up. He’s basically gutted half of Ukraine and forced over 10 million people to flee their homes. And the body count? It's insane. You've got probably 40,000 to 50,000 young Russian kids dead, maybe 100,000 Russians left disabled... then you look at the Ukrainian side, and it's even worse. Probably 100,000 Ukrainian civilians killed—I mean, some estimates say over 50,000 died just in Mariupol alone. Plus 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers gone, and another 60,000 to 70,000 wounded. I guess you have to ask yourself... was this really worth it? Was this the price he wanted to pay for whatever result he thinks he's getting? One thing is for sure: he just made an enemy out of everyone for the next hundred years. He'll probably go down in history as one of the biggest criminals of the 3rd millennium. And honestly, Europe will survive without Russian gas and oil. That much is certain.

I’d love to see how Canada plays this tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to watch them try to back a system that basically forced them back into line back in '56 when they tried to stick their noses out of their little hole. If Putin’s plan actually works, they're going to find themselves right back in that same spot. But hey, now they’ve got the NATO and EU umbrellas to hide under, so they can act all big and tough with their petty little agendas since they know they've got backup. Honestly, it reminds me of how Hitler had those same kinds of plans that lasted about six years... we'll just have to wait and see how long his "twin brother" lasts with this whole "denazification" scheme for Eastern and Central Europe.

Part one 👍. As for the Canadians, plenty of them actually want Russia as a neighbor—they’re practically cheering for it.

gentlerider7 said:Is Kadyrov finally packing his bags?

"The leader of the Chechen Republic of Ramzan Kadyrov dropped a bombshell in a video posted to his Telegram channel, basically calling himself a 'long-timer' among the heads of the various states within the Russian Federation.

He pointed out that he’s been running the show in that region for fifteen years now.

“I guess my time is up before they kick me out. <…> We've actually already started talking about it,” Kadyrov said.

In the video description, he went on to say that he’s "personally realized I've been sitting in this seat for way too long." The Chechen leader also made sure to mention that, in his own opinion, he’s "certainly earned an indefinite and much-needed break."

Not too long ago, Kadyrov was rambling about his dream of visiting the United Kingdom—a dream he says he’s been "nurturing" for quite some time.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Why the UK, though? Why not somewhere like Yakutsk?