Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Joshua Myers432 said:I wasn't talking about the Ukrainian or South Vietnamese militaries. I was talking about the ones sitting there acting like they own the place. 🍿

The Russians strike me as a far more serious force than these amateurs, though I wouldn't exactly dismiss the ARVN either—they were anything but an unserious outfit.

Just a common gang.

Joshua Myers432 said:That’s the exact same thing Afghans said, and before them, the South Vietnamese. ☕

Maybe it wouldn't hurt you to brush up on some basic historical facts.

In Afghanistan, the mujahideen and the Taliban didn't actually topple the local regime until after the Soviet Union or the West had completely withdrawn their military presence from Afghanistan and stopped providing active combat support.

Then there was Vietnam, where the war fought by American forces ended with a de facto armistice dictated by the USA.
The US military pulled out entirely.
They even celebrated V-E Day.
Afterward, a new US administration essentially abandoned South Vietnam, tossing aside all previous guarantees and leaving them wide open to a fresh, aggressive invasion from the north.

So, I guess your arguments are just... off base. Completely misses the mark.

With this whole situation in Ukraine, we aren't talking about some remote mountain wasteland or a jungle ten thousand miles away. This is a nation serving as a buffer zone between NATO and a fascist Russia.
It’s in the strategic interest of NATO nations—and others, like Japan—to see Russian aggression broken. Because if it isn't, then that aggression starts threatening them directly.
That's why I don't see much chance of this support for Ukraine drying up, at least not as long as the fascist aggression against Ukraine continues.

Denis Pushilin hasn't posted in a while 🙄

http://www.twitter.com/francis_scarr...C9yaH4prorAAAA

They're reclaiming all those Russian cities—some people are already joking that they should just go for Alaska first 🤣. But seriously, what’s the actual end goal here? Are they trying to rebuild the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, or Novorossiya, or is it just about the DPR 🤔?

Elizabeth Wells2 said:The Russians are trying to play their last ace, but it’s a losing move.

They'll end up empty-handed... the leverage just isn't there anymore.
🐔

That’s what happens when you try to patch holes with materials you already know are going to fail.
Russia is constantly obsessing over the European Union, while the EU is far more preoccupied with Ukraine; honestly, they aren't even that impressed by how well Russia seems to be holding up, mostly because it feels artificial.
In reality, Putin played his last card before winter hit. If Europe survives without major crises—and by that, I mean the Italians and Greeks, plus maybe some of the Frenchmen (the Germans will hold steady)—then Europe makes it through. Ukraine will win this war of attrition simply because the West has proven it can outlast everyone else.
The USA isn't going to buckle. There is nothing anyone can do to them, and Ukraine serves as Europe's final line of defense against Russian imperialism. Even Poland, which handles most of the aid shipments, won't budge; they've already stocked their warehouses. The EU essentially backed itself into a corner where it could be blackmailed, but again, if they survive, that final trump card has been neutralized.

I think they’ve got the gas valve turned the wrong way.

Kate Cook27 said:I think they’ve got the gas valve turned the wrong way.

We'll see how it plays out.
Russia has spent years weaving its influence through the European Union. That presence didn't just vanish. If Emmanuel Macron loses to Marine Le Pen, it could trigger a massive political earthquake given how critical France is to the region. They could just as easily pull the rug out from under an unstable Italy, where pro-Russian factions also hold significant sway. Then you have Austria to consider.
This winter is crucial for Russia, especially with the upcoming US Congressional elections looming. If the Democrats lose control of Congress and the Republicans take over—driven by the MAGA crowd—the landscape shifts. Those folks are much more inclined to push for a peace deal, which might mean Ukraine having to surrender some territory.

Noctua said:Stephen Dujarric praised Russia for protecting a team that arrived to inspect the nuclear plant. Ukraine sent a large number of special forces to seize it. The Russians neutralized them. What was the plan for the takeover? Using an international team as a human shield? I’d love to know what they were actually aiming for.

That's how Stephen puts it... they wanted to use them as a human shield, and we're just glad the Russians saved us...

It stands to reason that after all this Western support, Ukrainians are doing everything possible to lose it. 😵

I honestly wonder if any of you actually think about the blatant propaganda you're spreading.

Joshua Myers432 said:You’re the one making that comparison, not me. So you're the one being unserious here. I was just commenting on those guys over at the local diner. It's all the same crowd.

Nobody actually knows what the future holds or how long Western nations will be willing to keep providing aid. One of the inherent flaws of democracy is that long-term policy isn't always steady.

But these situations aren't comparable. In Afghanistan and Vietnam, the Americans struggled with a lack of solid government structures and local support. They tried to build something from scratch and failed, which cost their own soldiers dearly.

Here, they don't have their own standing army, there's a lack of local cooperation, and they lack organized, coherent military forces.

That doesn't mean aid won't dry up if the political landscape shifts in the US, if public opinion turns, if things change on the ground in Ukraine, or for some other reason.

It’s pretty obvious—it's common sense. Any actor involved in any conflict has to weigh these factors in their political or military decisions. I don't see why this is being singled out as something unique to the US.

crimsoncyclist71 said:It stands to reason that after all this Western support, Ukrainians are doing everything possible to lose it. 😵

I honestly wonder if any of you actually think about the blatant propaganda you're spreading.

The issue isn't really about him. He's just a professional performing a job, and the directives come from 'above.' It’s a classic setup—if those at the top fail, they can always blame the people at the bottom for poor execution.

Kate Cook27 said:I think they’ve got the gas valve turned the wrong way.

This is essentially their last remaining move—one they can execute with some degree of efficacy as a supposed 'retaliation' against the West (in response to the relentless escalation of sanctions). If they truly intended to push things this far, they missed the window. In other words: if this was the plan all along, they should have pulled the trigger immediately. It’s clear they were playing a numbers game, betting that the West would blink and retreat out of fear of losing Russian gas supplies. But everyone understands this is just a classic game of 'chicken.' Whoever flinches first loses. In this arena, the West holds the stronger hand; given its massive economic scale, the impact of sanctions hits much slower and less severely than it does the Russian Federation. There is absolutely zero incentive for the West to back down now, especially since everything has already been pivoted to favor them. In this scenario, the West simply needs to wait... While over at The Kremlin, they can continue with their little chess matches. Delusions can be incredibly dangerous, particularly when held by those sitting in positions of power.

Russians are claiming Ukrainians have struck Enerhodar again, this time using a fleet of 15 small boats.

Those Ukrainians sure seem to have all the luck.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...21309636022272

*it’s hardly surprising they draw such an audience across Europe

Nancy Gomez26 said:This is essentially their last remaining move—one they can execute with some degree of efficacy as a supposed 'retaliation' against the West (in response to the relentless escalation of sanctions). If they truly intended to push things this far, they missed the window. In other words: if this was the plan all along, they should have pulled the trigger immediately. It’s clear they were playing a numbers game, betting that the West would blink and retreat out of fear of losing Russian gas supplies. But everyone understands this is just a classic game of 'chicken.' Whoever flinches first loses. In this arena, the West holds the stronger hand; given its massive economic scale, the impact of sanctions hits much slower and less severely than it does the Russian Federation. There is absolutely zero incentive for the West to back down now, especially since everything has already been pivoted to favor them. In this scenario, the West simply needs to wait... While over at The Kremlin, they can continue with their little chess matches. Delusions can be incredibly dangerous, particularly when held by those sitting in positions of power.

Do you think the Germans are already tapping into the gas they've got sitting in those underground storage facilities? 😁

Back in July, electricity usage in the US dropped by about 4%, while gas consumption fell by 11%.
The US actually has some of the largest gas storage facilities in the world per capita; we're sitting at 65% capacity right now, which means we could easily cruise through the whole winter even if we started at 80%.

Donna Harris11 said:Do you think the Germans are already tapping into the gas they've got sitting in those underground storage facilities? 😁

Everyone loves to paint Germans as the skeptics here, but I think that's a misconception. Germans are incredibly disciplined people, and if you look at the public sentiment, support for Ukraine is actually much stronger among the citizens than it is within the political circles.
The Italians are the ones who are truly critical. They’ll hit their breaking point long before any Germans do.

The gas shutoff comes as no surprise at all. Even without the sanctions on Russia, they would have found some excuse—like a sudden turbine "malfunction"—to pull this move. It’s just another tool in their arsenal, one they were always going to swing regardless of whether we hit them with sanctions or not. It's a strategic advantage they'll exploit every single time...

Arthur Watson4 said:Russians are claiming Ukrainians have struck Enerhodar again, this time using a fleet of 15 small boats.

Those Ukrainians sure seem to have all the luck.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...21309636022272

*it’s hardly surprising they draw such an audience across Europe

That isn't accurate. If you look at Kadyrov’s TikTok, there were actually closer to a hundred vessels out there, packed with those Ukrainian cannibals. The brave Chechen forces took them all out—every single one of them. And of course, there's plenty of footage showing the actual strikes.😬

Jessica Peterson2 said:That isn't accurate. If you look at Kadyrov’s TikTok, there were actually closer to a hundred vessels out there, packed with those Ukrainian cannibals. The brave Chechen forces took them all out—every single one of them. And of course, there's plenty of footage showing the actual strikes.😬

And what about those 75 Americans they killed? They never even made it back to the States.

rowdytiger13 said:Everyone loves to paint Germans as the skeptics here, but I think that's a misconception. Germans are incredibly disciplined people, and if you look at the public sentiment, support for Ukraine is actually much stronger among the citizens than it is within the political circles.
The Italians are the ones who are truly critical. They’ll hit their breaking point long before any Germans do.

The Italians are already cracking; elections are just three weeks away, and they're in full swing trying to score points.
Salvini and Berlusconi have already started questioning whether the sanctions are even worth it with their usual "good intentions."

William Anderson5 said:The gas shutoff comes as no surprise at all. Even without the sanctions on Russia, they would have found some excuse—like a sudden turbine "malfunction"—to pull this move. It’s just another tool in their arsenal, one they were always going to swing regardless of whether we hit them with sanctions or not. It's a strategic advantage they'll exploit every single time...

Putin isn't losing sleep over Gazprom, Rosneft, or some random billionaire oligarch. He doesn't give a damn about Russia or its economy, either.
He is strictly focused on his own legacy—on how he’ll be remembered as a historical figure in the textbooks. And he'll get his way, obviously.
The guy is going all the way. Pure madness. Just like Hitler.

Sandra Harris2 said:The Italians are already cracking; elections are just three weeks away, and they're in full swing trying to score points.
Salvini and Berlusconi have already started questioning whether the sanctions are even worth it with their usual "good intentions."

Historically, the Italians haven't been able to form a solid Government capable of taking a truly "anti-European" stance. Making major moves like that requires a strong parliamentary majority, but in Italy, Governments are always just fragile compromises between a bunch of different parties, where the whole thing rests on the whims of every single one...