Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Kate Lewis3 said:Look, if Ukraine clears out their territory and fast-tracks their way into NATO, that’s the game changer. Russia might be acting tough now, but they won't dare touch a NATO member. Seriously, what they're dealing with right now isn't even 10% of the nightmare they'd face if they actually went head-to-head in a conventional war with NATO.

If the US stations some nuclear deterrents in those NATO border states they've been avoiding until now, Russian claims against the West get neutralized for as long as NATO exists.
It might turn out that the Bushes were the hawks all along for wanting Ukraine in NATO.

What worked best for the Russians was how well they managed to stir up internal division within NATO and the EU. If they had just waited a few more years, they’d be facing a much weaker enemy. But that's the thing with dictators; Putin likely wanted to make his mark on history, and he's feeling the pressure of time.

Though there were probably more pragmatic reasons involved—things like the declining effectiveness of sanctions, demographic shifts, or instability in future oil markets. It might become much harder later on.🤔

Brenda Murphy3 said:It's almost a mathematical certainty that it won't happen, but hey, if Putko happens to drink some bad tea or something... who knows? We aren't quite at that stage yet, but in situations like this, things can flip upside down incredibly fast.

As for an actual trial? That's pretty much out of the question...

If—or when—someone manages to flip the Secret Service to their side, Putin’s career is elegantly over. Whether he "suddenly falls ill" or "succumbs unexpectedly to a virus" is secondary. I don't buy the suicide theory; it bears too much resemblance to Hitler's end. Given that Putin has seized every lever of power in the country, bypassing local political authorities (those folks who sign petitions calling for his removal), and filled the political landscape with his loyalists, I don't expect any movement toward dethroning him from within the government. To move against him would mean they risk losing their own grip on power. The only force capable of acting right now, possessing even a semblance of organized structure, is the military. Since Putin has cycled through so many commanders, relations are strained—not to mention the massive loss of life resulting from catastrophic political miscalculations. A military coup isn't an unprecedented concept in recent American history; the real question is which side the citizens would actually stand on.

Another high-ranking official dead in Russia

The body of Ivan Pechorin—the CEO of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation—was found out on Russky Island.
Apparently, Pechorin had been drinking too much—classic—and fell right off a pleasure boat.

Nancy Gomez26 said:If—or when—someone manages to flip the Secret Service to their side, Putin’s career is elegantly over. Whether he "suddenly falls ill" or "succumbs unexpectedly to a virus" is secondary. I don't buy the suicide theory; it bears too much resemblance to Hitler's end. Given that Putin has seized every lever of power in the country, bypassing local political authorities (those folks who sign petitions calling for his removal), and filled the political landscape with his loyalists, I don't expect any movement toward dethroning him from within the government. To move against him would mean they risk losing their own grip on power. The only force capable of acting right now, possessing even a semblance of organized structure, is the military. Since Putin has cycled through so many commanders, relations are strained—not to mention the massive loss of life resulting from catastrophic political miscalculations. A military coup isn't an unprecedented concept in recent American history; the real question is which side the citizens would actually stand on.

It’ll all be over the day his money runs out and he can no longer afford to keep his loyalists on the payroll. As long as the cash keeps flowing, he’s untouchable.

Thomas Nelson25 said:I honestly think every guy facing the draft in Russia is low-key panicking right now—they know if they don't get enough boots on the ground (and the situation on the front lines says it all), they’re next in line.

The real kicker here might actually be Peskov claiming that "Russia has no intention of declaring (general) mobilization," especially when you consider this gentleman's track record 🤦
Stovisa, verbatim, said: No, currently the question (of mobilization) isn't on the table...

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/12/09/20...m=from_main_13

Following the full-scale Russian invasion, the USA has been training 1,475 members of the Ukrainian military to effectively operate American weaponry.
According to Pentagon data:

• 630 personnel trained on M777 howitzers
• 325 trained on HIMARS
• 300 trained on M109 howitzers
• 120 trained on M113 armored personnel carriers
• 100 trained on drone technology

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/statu...3I0EGwyQsJLwKw

Ukraine is slowly turning into Europe's primary exporter of scrap metal:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...ZPckewG-d_3rPA

Kate Lewis3 said:Look, if Ukraine clears out their territory and fast-tracks their way into NATO, that’s the game changer. Russia might be acting tough now, but they won't dare touch a NATO member. Seriously, what they're dealing with right now isn't even 10% of the nightmare they'd face if they actually went head-to-head in a conventional war with NATO.

When?! While Putin is taking a nap fueled by half a bottle of vodka? They need to liberate Crimea first and actually stop being at war with Russia.

As long as Putin and his little clique stay in power, there’s no end in sight. There probably hasn't been any peace, regardless of where the front lines moved.

Joshua Myers432 said:When?! While Putin is taking a nap fueled by half a bottle of vodka? They need to liberate Crimea first and actually stop being at war with Russia.

As long as Putin and his little clique stay in power, there’s no end in sight. There probably hasn't been any peace, regardless of where the front lines moved.

That’s literally what clearing out territory means.

Timothy Williams5 said:Ukraine is slowly turning into Europe's primary exporter of scrap metal:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...ZPckewG-d_3rPA

All of it eventually needs to be melted down at Azovstal. Quite symbolic, really.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Precisely. From what I understand, if someone wants to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship, they have to file a formal request, and then the state authorities decide whether all the necessary criteria have been met. Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue where one would even go to submit such a request—say, in a place like Buffalo or Mariupol.

Or maybe in Russia, where people are allegedly being forced into things... Not exactly a rock-solid signature under those circumstances. 😁

I honestly struggle to wrap my head around the level of sheer stupidity required to move to Georgia—a country that has had roughly 20% of its land snatched away by Putinland—only to end up there shouting "Glory to Russia!" 🤦

Kate Lewis3 said:That’s literally what clearing out territory means.

Taking back Crimea militarily would be an absolute nightmare. Honestly, I get the feeling even a broken-down US military could hold that ground. Take a look at the map and tell me which way you'd even approach. Even if we ignore the fact that it's part of the Russian Federation, the Russians will defend it with everything they've got—and we all know how that ends.

Sure, someone might argue that Crimea hasn't even been part of the Russian Federation for ten years, but by that logic, China could make similar claims about parts of Siberia. What does that change regarding their status within the Russian Federation? If the Putin regime collapses and a pro-Western government takes over, it might go back to Ukraine. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly.🕺

Joshua Myers432 said:Taking back Crimea militarily would be an absolute nightmare. Honestly, I get the feeling even a broken-down US military could hold that ground. Take a look at the map and tell me which way you'd even approach. Even if we ignore the fact that it's part of the Russian Federation, the Russians will defend it with everything they've got—and we all know how that ends.

Sure, someone might argue that Crimea hasn't even been part of the Russian Federation for ten years, but by that logic, China could make similar claims about parts of Siberia. What does that change regarding their status within the Russian Federation? If the Putin regime collapses and a pro-Western government takes over, it might go back to Ukraine. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly.🕺

Yeah, looks like Crimea can only be handed back through negotiations, not on a battlefield.
The sanctions will probably stick around until that actually happens, too.

In my view, if we don't see the fall of the Putin regime, this whole mess could drag on for years. And even if the Ukrainians manage to clear everything out, the landscape would likely end up looking a lot like Gaza. As for Russia, they’ll either be choking under sanctions or being forced to pay massive war reparations—it's a classic, calculated strategic move from Putin.

Joshua Myers432 said:Taking back Crimea militarily would be an absolute nightmare. Honestly, I get the feeling even a broken-down US military could hold that ground. Take a look at the map and tell me which way you'd even approach. Even if we ignore the fact that it's part of the Russian Federation, the Russians will defend it with everything they've got—and we all know how that ends.

Sure, someone might argue that Crimea hasn't even been part of the Russian Federation for ten years, but by that logic, China could make similar claims about parts of Siberia. What does that change regarding their status within the Russian Federation? If the Putin regime collapses and a pro-Western government takes over, it might go back to Ukraine. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly.🕺

Actually, clearing Crimea will be remarkably easy. Their only real logistical lifeline is the Crimean Bridge. A few HIMARS strikes on the airfields followed by hits on the sea ports, combined with the imminent destruction of the Crimean Bridge within 48 hours, should do it. The Russians are already fleeing Crimea with their families; the defense would collapse much faster than what we are currently seeing around Kharkiv.

Crimea is not part of the Russian Federation, and I have no idea where you're getting that misinformation!
The Ukrainians have already struck targets in Crimea multiple times, and it’s become clear that those strikes don't change much, since besides terrorizing civilians near Odessa, the Russians can't actually achieve anything substantial.

China certainly has the right to question why specific areas of the Russian Far East are part of Russia—for instance, Vladivostok even carries the Chinese name hǎishēnwǎi—but then again, China has about 300 nuclear weapons while Russia has 5,000.

Regardless of who sits in the Kremlin, the outcome remains the same, because the Russians simply won't have the logistics required to maintain an illegal occupation of Crimea.

Ukrainian air defense has proven itself exceptionally capable, as have their anti-ship systems, not to mention the addition of HIMARS. Ukraine will be able to establish a no-fly zone over parts of Crimea and keep the Russian Navy away from much of the peninsula, if not all of it. Between constant HIMARS strikes on logistics and hitting the sea and air ports—especially after the bridge goes down—the Russians simply won't be able to hold it.

Even China isn't buying the Russian annexation of Crimea.

On the next map, you'll see the countries that actually recognize Crimea as part of Russia shaded in dark pink.

Light blue represents the nations that've stood by Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Dark Green shows the ones that officially condemned the Russian invasion of Crimea.

Yellow indicates countries that expressed concern without actually making a formal recognition.

This map is from 2014. Since then, only Belarus has flipped its stance—and that was only after the protests.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Yeah, looks like Crimea can only be handed back through negotiations, not on a battlefield.
The sanctions will probably stick around until that actually happens, too.

The Crimean Tatars aren't looking to live under Russian rule. You can bet there's going to be guerrilla activity working right alongside the Ukrainians.

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If all this hadn't kicked off on February 24th, I honestly think a lot of people would have just let Crimea go. It was never actually that "vital"—it just kind of was—like a blind appendix. The status quo didn't really suit anyone, but it was definitely better than what we're seeing now. Now that Russia has decided to play the war card, even Crimea is up for debate. I doubt there will be a full military push for it, though—maybe targeting that bridge, perhaps. If that bridge goes, Crimea loses its purpose.

Obviously, they aren't going to put every single person who took Russian citizenship on trial—there are plenty of people who were basically forced into it. Every case has to be looked at individually. I mean, what are you going to do with a few hundred elderly folks in Popasna who stayed behind? Are they really going to face trial? These people are living in a city that doesn't even exist anymore—they're getting humanitarian aid every two weeks just to get by, and they only took the citizenship so they could collect whatever tiny pension they're being handed. They’re out there walking everywhere because there’s zero transportation left. Special forces aren't going to go hunting down grandmas and grandpas to arrest them for treason or collaboration or whatever else. Each situation is its own thing. I know some people who crossed back into Ukrainian territory and had zero issues, even though they only had those documents. Plus, the number of people who took Russian citizenship isn't even that huge—back in Kherson it was around 1%, in Mariupol it was about 5%, though maybe things have shifted since then, I don't know.

Tyler Jones6 said:Actually, clearing Crimea will be remarkably easy. Their only real logistical lifeline is the Crimean Bridge. A few HIMARS strikes on the airfields followed by hits on the sea ports, combined with the imminent destruction of the Crimean Bridge within 48 hours, should do it. The Russians are already fleeing Crimea with their families; the defense would collapse much faster than what we are currently seeing around Kharkiv.

Crimea is not part of the Russian Federation, and I have no idea where you're getting that misinformation!
The Ukrainians have already struck targets in Crimea multiple times, and it’s become clear that those strikes don't change much, since besides terrorizing civilians near Odessa, the Russians can't actually achieve anything substantial.

China certainly has the right to question why specific areas of the Russian Far East are part of Russia—for instance, Vladivostok even carries the Chinese name hǎishēnwǎi—but then again, China has about 300 nuclear weapons while Russia has 5,000.

Regardless of who sits in the Kremlin, the outcome remains the same, because the Russians simply won't have the logistics required to maintain an illegal occupation of Crimea.

Ukrainian air defense has proven itself exceptionally capable, as have their anti-ship systems, not to mention the addition of HIMARS. Ukraine will be able to establish a no-fly zone over parts of Crimea and keep the Russian Navy away from much of the peninsula, if not all of it. Between constant HIMARS strikes on logistics and hitting the sea and air ports—especially after the bridge goes down—the Russians simply won't be able to hold it.

It’s simple math. It took the Wehrmacht eight months just to secure a single peninsula between 1941 and 1942, yet they somehow managed to blitz toward Moscow in only five. 🤦

Tyler Jones6 said:Actually, clearing Crimea will be remarkably easy. Their only real logistical lifeline is the Crimean Bridge. A few HIMARS strikes on the airfields followed by hits on the sea ports, combined with the imminent destruction of the Crimean Bridge within 48 hours, should do it. The Russians are already fleeing Crimea with their families; the defense would collapse much faster than what we are currently seeing around Kharkiv.

Crimea is not part of the Russian Federation, and I have no idea where you're getting that misinformation!
The Ukrainians have already struck targets in Crimea multiple times, and it’s become clear that those strikes don't change much, since besides terrorizing civilians near Odessa, the Russians can't actually achieve anything substantial.

China certainly has the right to question why specific areas of the Russian Far East are part of Russia—for instance, Vladivostok even carries the Chinese name hǎishēnwǎi—but then again, China has about 300 nuclear weapons while Russia has 5,000.

Regardless of who sits in the Kremlin, the outcome remains the same, because the Russians simply won't have the logistics required to maintain an illegal occupation of Crimea.

Ukrainian air defense has proven itself exceptionally capable, as have their anti-ship systems, not to mention the addition of HIMARS. Ukraine will be able to establish a no-fly zone over parts of Crimea and keep the Russian Navy away from much of the peninsula, if not all of it. Between constant HIMARS strikes on logistics and hitting the sea and air ports—especially after the bridge goes down—the Russians simply won't be able to hold it.

It’s enough if Putin considers it so. He doesn't need anyone else's validation.