Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

hollowdriver13 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHaue...DQ8ZeKw8wrAAAA

And now Armenia has basically admitted that the CSTO—that famous "Russian NATO"—is a totally useless organization. The collapse of the Russian "sphere of influence" is seriously picking up steam.

And this leaves us wondering... Everything Putin spent years constructing is crumbling before his eyes. Perhaps it was never built on much substance to begin with—more a house of cards held together by the mere fear of Moscow's might—but it functioned. Now, what possible incentive does he have to suddenly pull back from Ukraine and abandon his position, regardless of the mounting losses he's taking there?

Nancy Gomez26 said:What does Putin actually gain by pulling out of all of Ukraine right now?

A State crippled by sanctions, stripped of Crimea, mourning 50,000 dead and at least twice as many wounded. Any talk of lifting those sanctions will inevitably be tied to massive reparations. NATO is positioned on his borders in ways never seen before, and Kazakhstan is steadily drifting out of the Russian sphere of influence. Weapon stockpiles have been gutted, conventional military capacity is severely depleted, and the military—the State itself—has suffered a massive blow to its prestige.
For him, this simply isn't a viable path. It either ends in a total battlefield defeat for the Rus, or a regime change at the White House. I don't see any other way this war stops.

Pretty much.
The West would rather push Ukraine into a catastrophic war—total destruction of cities and infrastructure, bankruptcy with debts they can't actually pay back, and massive depopulation—than just sit down and negotiate with Putin back in February to prevent this.

Regarding Kazakhstan, you only have to look at a map to see the mess they could cause just by blocking shipping and flights over the Caspian Sea if they get angry enough. There's no sustainable corridor there like there is for a NATO member like Ukraine. I expect Kazakhstan to keep playing both sides to turn a profit, but don't hold your breath waiting for them to join the Western bloc.

It feels like Putin’s comments from Uzbekistan flew right under the radar. The media is busy reporting on how he smirked while "threatening Ukraine" regarding their counteroffensive, but if you look closer—and assuming our news outlets actually got the quote right—the most significant thing he said was that "the main goal remains taking over the entire Donbas."

Honestly, I think that’s the only realistic, revised goal the Russian leadership actually has left. At the start, they were hoping to turn Ukraine into something like Belarus, but now? They might just settle for the Donbas. They seem obsessed with those areas; everything seems to be trending in that direction. To them, the whole Luhansk and Donetsk region makes up this mythic Donbas territory. If they can seize it, they get way more than what they grabbed back on February 24th, which gives them a way to justify this whole mess to their people at home. And obviously, that's assuming Crimea stays exactly as it is.

That feels like the most likely outcome to me. All we really know is, we'll have to see what the Americans decide to do about it.

Gregory Ramos3 said:Look, Russia is going to keep spinning even after Putin is gone, since he's definitely not the first leader to act like the whole State revolves around him.

Honestly, I feel like Putin's story is pretty much written at this point, and there really isn't any scenario where he walks away with anything resembling a win.☕

The real headache is just figuring out how much of Russia and its people he's going to drag down with him, because every single day that passes just makes the fallout even harder to deal with down the road.🙂

If he were actually a Good sport, he'd just admit he lost, step down, and apologize to his people for all the hardship they're facing for years to come... but obviously, that's not happening, because he'd probably end up stuck somewhere in Siberia at best.

Naturally, the Russian Federation will exist after he is gone. However, the most rational move for them would be to withdraw from Ukraine immediately. Replacing Putin and his inner circle, regrouping, and selecting competent political leadership to restore some semblance of normal communication with the rest of the world—that is the only path forward. The sooner they act, the better; it limits the mess they have to clean up later, though the price they are paying right now is already astronomical.

wiredseal7 said:Pretty much.
The West would rather push Ukraine into a catastrophic war—total destruction of cities and infrastructure, bankruptcy with debts they can't actually pay back, and massive depopulation—than just sit down and negotiate with Putin back in February to prevent this.

Regarding Kazakhstan, you only have to look at a map to see the mess they could cause just by blocking shipping and flights over the Caspian Sea if they get angry enough. There's no sustainable corridor there like there is for a NATO member like Ukraine. I expect Kazakhstan to keep playing both sides to turn a profit, but don't hold your breath waiting for them to join the Western bloc.

What does "reaching an agreement" even look like to you? Back in February, Putin thought he still had a shot, so an agreement back then would have meant

Demilitarizing Ukraine—where Russia just sweeps up all the weapons
Ukraine being absorbed into the Russian Federation like Chechnya
Putting someone like Kadyrov in charge to control Ukraine
And after that, it’s basically what Stalin used to do: erasing Ukraine entirely—the history, the roots, the very name—just turning everyone into Russians.

Bryan Jackson12 said:It feels like Putin’s comments from Uzbekistan flew right under the radar. The media is busy reporting on how he smirked while "threatening Ukraine" regarding their counteroffensive, but if you look closer—and assuming our news outlets actually got the quote right—the most significant thing he said was that "the main goal remains taking over the entire Donbas."

Honestly, I think that’s the only realistic, revised goal the Russian leadership actually has left. At the start, they were hoping to turn Ukraine into something like Belarus, but now? They might just settle for the Donbas. They seem obsessed with those areas; everything seems to be trending in that direction. To them, the whole Luhansk and Donetsk region makes up this mythic Donbas territory. If they can seize it, they get way more than what they grabbed back on February 24th, which gives them a way to justify this whole mess to their people at home. And obviously, that's assuming Crimea stays exactly as it is.

That feels like the most likely outcome to me. All we really know is, we'll have to see what the Americans decide to do about it.

Then what the hell were they doing sending tens of thousands of troops to Hershon, who are basically cut off now?

The Russians just pivot their goals whenever the situation shifts. First, it was a three-day sprint to the Polish border, then it was the Donbas and the Black Sea coast, and now it's just the Donbas... at this rate, in a couple of months, their goal will probably just be holding onto Crimea.🙄

Nancy Gomez26 said:What does Putin actually gain by pulling out of all of Ukraine right now?

A State crippled by sanctions, stripped of Crimea, mourning 50,000 dead and at least twice as many wounded. Any talk of lifting those sanctions will inevitably be tied to massive reparations. NATO is positioned on his borders in ways never seen before, and Kazakhstan is steadily drifting out of the Russian sphere of influence. Weapon stockpiles have been gutted, conventional military capacity is severely depleted, and the military—the State itself—has suffered a massive blow to its prestige.
For him, this simply isn't a viable path. It either ends in a total battlefield defeat for the Rus, or a regime change at the White House. I don't see any other way this war stops.

And how exactly do they plan to handle that?
A magic wand?

Gregory Ramos3 said:Look, Russia is going to keep spinning even after Putin is gone, since he's definitely not the first leader to act like the whole State revolves around him.

Honestly, I feel like Putin's story is pretty much written at this point, and there really isn't any scenario where he walks away with anything resembling a win.☕

The real headache is just figuring out how much of Russia and its people he's going to drag down with him, because every single day that passes just makes the fallout even harder to deal with down the road.🙂

If he were actually a Good sport, he'd just admit he lost, step down, and apologize to his people for all the hardship they're facing for years to come... but obviously, that's not happening, because he'd probably end up stuck somewhere in Siberia at best.

He’s going to end up just like Slobodan Maddox—and his successors will be nothing more than miniature versions of him, only they'll spend all their time berating him for folding when it actually mattered.

Quincy:

Resurrected Asks: Looking at the map around Kazakhstan, you can see exactly how much trouble Russia could cause just by choking off shipping and flights over the Caspian Sea—something they’re more than capable of doing if they feel sufficiently slighted. Unlike Ukraine, which functions as a NATO-aligned nation, there is no sustainable corridor here. I expect Kazakhstan will continue playing both sides to maximize their own profits, but let's be realistic: they aren't about to become part of the Western bloc.

Kazakhstan is gravitating toward China—not the West.

Regarding February—the West should have acted sooner to shut Putin down before he even considered such moves, rather than just sitting around negotiating.

Bryan Jackson12 said:It feels like Putin’s comments from Uzbekistan flew right under the radar. The media is busy reporting on how he smirked while "threatening Ukraine" regarding their counteroffensive, but if you look closer—and assuming our news outlets actually got the quote right—the most significant thing he said was that "the main goal remains taking over the entire Donbas."

Honestly, I think that’s the only realistic, revised goal the Russian leadership actually has left. At the start, they were hoping to turn Ukraine into something like Belarus, but now? They might just settle for the Donbas. They seem obsessed with those areas; everything seems to be trending in that direction. To them, the whole Luhansk and Donetsk region makes up this mythic Donbas territory. If they can seize it, they get way more than what they grabbed back on February 24th, which gives them a way to justify this whole mess to their people at home. And obviously, that's assuming Crimea stays exactly as it is.

That feels like the most likely outcome to me. All we really know is, we'll have to see what the Americans decide to do about it.

Not quite.
The Ukrainians have made slight inroads into Luhansk—pushing toward the edges and putting pressure on them near Liman.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Naturally, the Russian Federation will exist after he is gone. However, the most rational move for them would be to withdraw from Ukraine immediately. Replacing Putin and his inner circle, regrouping, and selecting competent political leadership to restore some semblance of normal communication with the rest of the world—that is the only path forward. The sooner they act, the better; it limits the mess they have to clean up later, though the price they are paying right now is already astronomical.

My point exactly 🙂

But man, the issues within Russia and ruak society go way deeper than that, and I'm honestly a little worried that once Putin is out, we'll just get some smooth-talking jerk with a massive Napoleon complex who's determined to chase the exact same "success" that Putin totally failed at.😢

Nancy Gomez26 said:Naturally, the Russian Federation will exist after he is gone. However, the most rational move for them would be to withdraw from Ukraine immediately. Replacing Putin and his inner circle, regrouping, and selecting competent political leadership to restore some semblance of normal communication with the rest of the world—that is the only path forward. The sooner they act, the better; it limits the mess they have to clean up later, though the price they are paying right now is already astronomical.

They don't have the power to just swap him out.
Besides, his successors are cut from the same cloth—the public has been thoroughly brainwashed, so what do they actually know?

Gregory Ramos3 said:Then what the hell were they doing sending tens of thousands of troops to Hershon, who are basically cut off now?

The Russians just pivot their goals whenever the situation shifts. First, it was a three-day sprint to the Polish border, then it was the Donbas and the Black Sea coast, and now it's just the Donbas... at this rate, in a couple of months, their goal will probably just be holding onto Crimea.🙄

They’ll lose Crimea too, obviously.

So what’s the play here? Is Putin just going to become Xieva's errand boy, and by extension, is Russia going to follow suit?
It’ll be quite the spectacle, watching them sell off energy resources at whatever price Xieva decides to dictate. I guess he finally found a way to deal with the so-called "decadent" West—by introducing them to democracy in its purest, most unfiltered form.🙂

Bryan Jackson12 said:It feels like Putin’s comments from Uzbekistan flew right under the radar. The media is busy reporting on how he smirked while "threatening Ukraine" regarding their counteroffensive, but if you look closer—and assuming our news outlets actually got the quote right—the most significant thing he said was that "the main goal remains taking over the entire Donbas."

Honestly, I think that’s the only realistic, revised goal the Russian leadership actually has left. At the start, they were hoping to turn Ukraine into something like Belarus, but now? They might just settle for the Donbas. They seem obsessed with those areas; everything seems to be trending in that direction. To them, the whole Luhansk and Donetsk region makes up this mythic Donbas territory. If they can seize it, they get way more than what they grabbed back on February 24th, which gives them a way to justify this whole mess to their people at home. And obviously, that's assuming Crimea stays exactly as it is.

That feels like the most likely outcome to me. All we really know is, we'll have to see what the Americans decide to do about it.

It is entirely plausible that the Donbas remains Putin's primary conquest target, but the chances of Russia seizing the WHOLE Donbas are basically science fiction. They’ve maybe grabbed a few kilometers over the last month, and even then, they've lost ground too. We're looking at progress of maybe two and a half meters a day...
Once they start pulling back from other parts of Ukraine, they’re going to ramp up that narrative that those areas weren't the real goal anyway, and that they were just there to "liberate" the Donbas. Dammit, they have to have some kind of base to sell to their people...

The way things are playing out right now, the only nuclear exchange we’re going to see is between Russia and China.

I haven't been hanging around this thread for long. Life got in the way.

Since I was last here, a few of my perspectives have shifted slightly.

Kudos to the Ukrainian military for pulling off that successful counteroffensive.

It’ll be interesting to see how the White House responds once the Ukrainians hit the LPR border.

Basically, we're entering that phase of the war where things actually start getting interesting on the battlefield. In my opinion, this is when the decisive battles finally begin.

Bryan Jackson12 said:Putin has shamed Russia more than anyone else ever has. Between those videos of absolute thugs in prison, the rhetoric from useful idiots like Medvedev threatening nuclear strikes, and the systematic killing of political rivals... he’s basically dragged the country back fifty years.

Exactly.
He had every opportunity to use his natural charisma and authority to rein in the oligarchs, wipe out corruption, bridge the gap between Russia and the West, mend ties with all his neighbors, and push forward in tech, art, and space exploration—essentially becoming a modern-day Peter the Great. Instead, fueled by pure greed and stupidity, he's dragging Russia straight back into the Middle Ages and torching what little positive global reputation they managed to build after the fall of the USSR.

As for Zakharov, Medvedev, Dugin, and that entire circus of lunatics, they aren't even worth the breath.

crimsonfox12 said:Exactly.
He had every opportunity to use his natural charisma and authority to rein in the oligarchs, wipe out corruption, bridge the gap between Russia and the West, mend ties with all his neighbors, and push forward in tech, art, and space exploration—essentially becoming a modern-day Peter the Great. Instead, fueled by pure greed and stupidity, he's dragging Russia straight back into the Middle Ages and torching what little positive global reputation they managed to build after the fall of the USSR.

As for Zakharov, Medvedev, Dugin, and that entire circus of lunatics, they aren't even worth the breath.

The real question is: how much of this is just him being greedy and foolish, and how much is just him being the face for a massive web of oligarchs and security elites? 🤷

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...DSoYe43cwrAAAA 🙏

Honestly, the amount of copium being inhaled by Russian propagandists lately is actually reaching stratospheric levels. It’s wild.

They aren't even fighting Ukrainians anymore—if you can even call them that. In their heads, everyone on the other side is just some special forces Black Ops unit or former NATO soldiers.

Then they have the nerve to compare themselves to Real Madrid while treating the Ukrainian military like some tiny local village team. They're basically asking, "How could a random club score against a giant like Real Madrid?" As if a bunch of pros (NATO) are just wearing local jerseys (Ukraine) for fun. 🙏 🙏 🙏

They really need to get their stories straight. On one hand, they’re claiming that if the US sends over ATACMS, it counts as direct US involvement in the war, but then they turn around and argue that they’re already fighting NATO troops anyway. Make up your minds, guys. 😂

And of course, they had to bring up WW2, acting like Ukraine is just some Russian territory that they’re "liberating" from bloodthirsty NATO warriors who are supposedly terrorizing Russian grandmas. 🤦

Julius Caesar said:Regarding Baric—all I can say is that from a geopolitical standpoint, he was really one of the few people before the war who logically and convincingly argued that Putin would launch an invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, so many other analysts were busy spinning these masterfully crafted arguments along the lines of "Putin isn't crazy" or "Why on earth would Russia attack Ukraine?" When an analyst bases their entire worldview on such banal, shallow premises, it becomes immediately obvious just what level of expertise we're dealing with.

The invasion of Ukraine is an irrational move that threatens the very survival of Russia as a country—mainly because of the internal unrest it triggers, and because it leaves them in a position of extreme vulnerability compared to neighboring China.

It is almost impossible to predict moves made by people who act so obviously irrationally, or who seem driven by illness or dementia. I’d say it's more like that guy who predicted the last two economic crises and fifteen other ones that never actually happened.

Morgan Brown4 said:The real question is: how much of this is just him being greedy and foolish, and how much is just him being the face for a massive web of oligarchs and security elites? 🤷

If he was ever just a puppet for an oligarch network, it seems he’s finally slipped their leash—because there isn't an oligarch in the country who can answer for a situation like this.

Gregory Ramos3 said:My point exactly 🙂

But man, the issues within Russia and ruak society go way deeper than that, and I'm honestly a little worried that once Putin is out, we'll just get some smooth-talking jerk with a massive Napoleon complex who's determined to chase the exact same "success" that Putin totally failed at.😢

Sure, that might be their goal, but let's be real: after everything that's happened, Russia isn't going to be a serious threat to anyone for a very long time.

Nicole James said:If he was ever just a puppet for an oligarch network, it seems he’s finally slipped their leash—because there isn't an oligarch in the country who can answer for a situation like this.

He lost control over the oligarchs from day one. His very first moves were all about trying to rein them in.

Maybe the intelligence agencies are acting as the real players behind the scenes.