Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Nicole James said:The invasion of Ukraine is an irrational move that threatens the very survival of Russia as a country—mainly because of the internal unrest it triggers, and because it leaves them in a position of extreme vulnerability compared to neighboring China.

It is almost impossible to predict moves made by people who act so obviously irrationally, or who seem driven by illness or dementia. I’d say it's more like that guy who predicted the last two economic crises and fifteen other ones that never actually happened.

It’s deeply irrational. Honestly, it’s gotten to the point where if you look at any serious geopolitical writer from the last two decades, they’ve all basically argued that the only way to truly weaken Russia is by forcing them into this exact conflict with Ukraine.

The moment those paratroopers started dropping, I remember thinking... that was the day Russia lost.
There’s just no realistic way to hold 40 million people against their will without a massive logistical backbone.
For Russia, territory has always functioned as their defensive depth—a sort of buffer zone.
But looking at the numbers? Nothing is going their way. They don't have the population base, and their economy isn't up to the task.

We really ought to be looking at deeper analyses—the kind that project out twenty years or more.
It’s obvious the Americans are putting immense pressure on them. Perhaps there was a deep-seated belief in Moscow that this was a "now or never" window—a chance to make a move that would secure their standing for the next fifty years or so.

Sadly for them, the Americans are reading the room too. It’s clear to everyone that Putin is essentially a disciple of Dugin and his theories. Today's Russian rhetoric sounds exactly like Dugin back in 1997...
And back then, he was adamant that without "resolving" Ukraine, there's no point in even discussing continental politics. And well... here we are.

Julius Caesar said:Regarding Baric, I think it’s worth noting that from a purely geopolitical standpoint, he was really one of the few voices actually making sense before the war started. He was consistently arguing that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, while a whole crowd of other analysts were busy spinning these incredibly polished, yet totally hollow arguments like "Putin isn't crazy enough to do this" or "Why on earth would Russia bother attacking Ukraine?" When an analyst builds their entire worldview on such shallow, predictable logic, you can tell immediately just how little depth they actually bring to the table.

Since 2014, Putin has been systematically prepping Russia—economically, financially, and structurally—to withstand sanctions. He’s been building up military bases right along the Ukrainian border, fracturing the internet, seizing total control over the Russian media landscape, and flooding the airwaves with propaganda designed to brainwash both the Russian people and useful idiots across the globe. Of course, he also went out of his way to make sure Europe stayed hooked on Russian gas. It was all part of a calculated effort to ensure that moving those troops to the border felt more like a bluff during some forced negotiations rather than a genuine threat.

It turns out he also poured massive resources into bribing Ukrainians, all so he could try to steamroll through the country like a shallow creek with an army that, frankly, doesn't even look big enough for a full-scale invasion. He expected them to just roll over and welcome him with flowers. He was so damn certain of his victory that he actually risked delaying the "operation" just to cater to Xia's interests, even with the seasonal muddiest roads nearly upon us.

crimsonfox12 said:Exactly.
He had every opportunity to use his natural charisma and authority to rein in the oligarchs, wipe out corruption, bridge the gap between Russia and the West, mend ties with all his neighbors, and push forward in tech, art, and space exploration—essentially becoming a modern-day Peter the Great. Instead, fueled by pure greed and stupidity, he's dragging Russia straight back into the Middle Ages and torching what little positive global reputation they managed to build after the fall of the USSR.

As for Zakharov, Medvedev, Dugin, and that entire circus of lunatics, they aren't even worth the breath.

This should serve as a cautionary tale for anyone enamored by "charismatic and authoritative" leaders. It becomes painfully obvious within just a year or two of their rule: there is plenty of rhetoric and repression, but very little actual progress or tangible results. In fact, once they've finished crushing the opposition, the momentum usually hits a dead end.
So, besides this "charisma and authority"—which, let’s be honest, is mostly a sales pitch for those who don't ask questions—Putin offers nothing. He has nothing to bring to the table other than old-school KGB spy doctrine paired with a questionable moral compass.

Of course, the West knows that once Putin is gone, someone equally unhinged will take his place. This isn't just "Putin's war," despite what you see on social media or hear from Russian expats and tourists. It's clear that much of this nation suffers from a delusional sense of grandeur regarding its own power. You have this pathetic, war-addicted Russia claiming to defend "true values" against a "wicked West," while a staggering percentage of their own population is actually fleeing toward that very same West. And where else would an average Russian go?
This isn't a country built on the foundations of old democracies; it's a country with a long, dark history of various Putins. To them, a non-dictatorial leader feels entirely alien—whether we are talking about the Tsars, Stalin, or this current guy wrestling bears.

And let's be clear: the voices rising up against Putin aren't necessarily protesting the aggression itself. They are protesting the prospect of losing the war. It is pure disappointment at the idea of failure.

Carol Johnson21 said:This should serve as a cautionary tale for anyone enamored by "charismatic and authoritative" leaders. It becomes painfully obvious within just a year or two of their rule: there is plenty of rhetoric and repression, but very little actual progress or tangible results. In fact, once they've finished crushing the opposition, the momentum usually hits a dead end.
So, besides this "charisma and authority"—which, let’s be honest, is mostly a sales pitch for those who don't ask questions—Putin offers nothing. He has nothing to bring to the table other than old-school KGB spy doctrine paired with a questionable moral compass.

Of course, the West knows that once Putin is gone, someone equally unhinged will take his place. This isn't just "Putin's war," despite what you see on social media or hear from Russian expats and tourists. It's clear that much of this nation suffers from a delusional sense of grandeur regarding its own power. You have this pathetic, war-addicted Russia claiming to defend "true values" against a "wicked West," while a staggering percentage of their own population is actually fleeing toward that very same West. And where else would an average Russian go?
This isn't a country built on the foundations of old democracies; it's a country with a long, dark history of various Putins. To them, a non-dictatorial leader feels entirely alien—whether we are talking about the Tsars, Stalin, or this current guy wrestling bears.

And let's be clear: the voices rising up against Putin aren't necessarily protesting the aggression itself. They are protesting the prospect of losing the war. It is pure disappointment at the idea of failure.

I'm with you on this. It reminds me of what happened back in 1991—after a string of setbacks in Mexico, the reservists started pushing back. I used to think there were plenty of reasonable people in their ranks, but that wasn't really the case. The reservists weren't rebelling because they disagreed with the invasion; they were just mad at how the military was being handled. It's the same story in Russia. They're targeting Putin because he didn't deliver the specific results he promised.

crimsonwolf26 said:So what’s the play here? Is Putin just going to become Xieva's errand boy, and by extension, is Russia going to follow suit?
It’ll be quite the spectacle, watching them sell off energy resources at whatever price Xieva decides to dictate. I guess he finally found a way to deal with the so-called "decadent" West—by introducing them to democracy in its purest, most unfiltered form.🙂

There really isn't much of a choice left.
The grand vision—at least according to the Kremlin before all this started—was for Russia to lead this segment of a multipolar world, or if they were feeling optimistic, to lead it as an equal partner alongside China. There were certainly people who viewed China as nothing more than a paper tiger that could never truly compete with a powerhouse like Russia.
That entire dynamic has shifted completely. In this part of the world, China is clearly taking the lead. Russia has exposed its military vulnerabilities, and with its economy being further crippled, it won't have the leverage to push back against a China that successfully avoided the trap of jumping into an adventure over Taiwan.

hollowdriver13 said:https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...DSoYe43cwrAAAA 🙏

Honestly, the amount of copium being inhaled by Russian propagandists lately is actually reaching stratospheric levels. It’s wild.

They aren't even fighting Ukrainians anymore—if you can even call them that. In their heads, everyone on the other side is just some special forces Black Ops unit or former NATO soldiers.

Then they have the nerve to compare themselves to Real Madrid while treating the Ukrainian military like some tiny local village team. They're basically asking, "How could a random club score against a giant like Real Madrid?" As if a bunch of pros (NATO) are just wearing local jerseys (Ukraine) for fun. 🙏 🙏 🙏

They really need to get their stories straight. On one hand, they’re claiming that if the US sends over ATACMS, it counts as direct US involvement in the war, but then they turn around and argue that they’re already fighting NATO troops anyway. Make up your minds, guys. 😂

And of course, they had to bring up WW2, acting like Ukraine is just some Russian territory that they’re "liberating" from bloodthirsty NATO warriors who are supposedly terrorizing Russian grandmas. 🤦

The victim complex here is almost on par with what we saw back during the Storm era in the North America.

Actually, in some ways, they might even be winning the award. Just look at them crying about taking down Russian flags in front of elderly women. You know, those same Russian flags they started planting on someone else's dirt in the first place.

rowdytiger13 said:There really isn't much of a choice left.
The grand vision—at least according to the Kremlin before all this started—was for Russia to lead this segment of a multipolar world, or if they were feeling optimistic, to lead it as an equal partner alongside China. There were certainly people who viewed China as nothing more than a paper tiger that could never truly compete with a powerhouse like Russia.
That entire dynamic has shifted completely. In this part of the world, China is clearly taking the lead. Russia has exposed its military vulnerabilities, and with its economy being further crippled, it won't have the leverage to push back against a China that successfully avoided the trap of jumping into an adventure over Taiwan.

I suppose leadership in China should probably be asking themselves how much their economy could actually take if they decided to pick a fight with the rest of the world.
They really ought to realize, just like Russia is finding out, that they’re acting like the neighborhood bully who terrorizes the block. Everyone might tolerate him or act like they respect him for now, but if things truly go sideways, everyone tends to turn on him... especially if someone from the next neighborhood over shows up to knock that local tough guy down a peg.

The whole dynamic has shifted entirely. In that part of the world, China is going to be the one calling the shots. Russia has exposed its military weaknesses, and with an economy that's only getting more crippled, they won't be in any position to push back against China, which managed to avoid the trap by not rushing into an adventure in Taiwan.

If China decides to move on Taiwan, they could find themselves in a much worse spot than Russia is right now.
Sanctions would hit them five times harder; we could be looking at domestic famine or civil unrest within three or four months.
And you could see the countries surrounding China forming a massive military alliance, something akin to NATO (including Japan, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, and the USA)...

With Russia left defeated and weakened, Central Asia is basically sitting there wide open for China. It might be better for them to take that opening while they can...

hiddeneagle98 said:Since 2014, Putin has been systematically prepping Russia—economically, financially, and structurally—to withstand sanctions. He’s been building up military bases right along the Ukrainian border, fracturing the internet, seizing total control over the Russian media landscape, and flooding the airwaves with propaganda designed to brainwash both the Russian people and useful idiots across the globe. Of course, he also went out of his way to make sure Europe stayed hooked on Russian gas. It was all part of a calculated effort to ensure that moving those troops to the border felt more like a bluff during some forced negotiations rather than a genuine threat.

It turns out he also poured massive resources into bribing Ukrainians, all so he could try to steamroll through the country like a shallow creek with an army that, frankly, doesn't even look big enough for a full-scale invasion. He expected them to just roll over and welcome him with flowers. He was so damn certain of his victory that he actually risked delaying the "operation" just to cater to Xia's interests, even with the seasonal muddiest roads nearly upon us.

Precisely. But Putin’s preparations started much earlier; the occupation of Georgia and Crimea were merely testing the waters to see how the West would react. When the response was largely negligible, he simply resumed his previous local business, assuming the green light had been given.
He kept Ukraine trapped in a corrupt economic chess match via various proxies. The reality was that even the oligarchs realized they couldn't expand their influence within Ukraine as if it were a Russian province, because they occupied such low rungs on Putin's power ladder. In that system, any ambitious entrepreneur had to satisfy local bosses, the local government, and Putin’s proxies simultaneously. Consequently, Ukraine was riddled with these "security men" right up until 2014, all of whom were tethered directly to the Kremlin. A state cannot function normally when it possesses two parallel systems of authority—the legal one and a shadow one (which might be the mafia, or a political faction—similar to what we see in some parts of the US). A nation can only have one true seat of power; you must know who holds it and how that power shifts. If a political system is incapable of purging all other levers of power from the game, then it doesn't truly hold power—it merely performs the role of holding it. After the Maidan, the Kremlin lost many of its levers of control within Ukraine. For them, this was an intolerable situation; they realized they were abruptly losing their grip on the country. That loss of influence became the final catalyst for the invasion.

Timothy Nelson5 said:If China moves on Taiwan, they might find themselves in an even tighter spot than Russia.
The sanctions would hit them five times harder; we could be looking at domestic food shortages and unrest within three or four months.
Countries in China's sphere of influence could form a massive military alliance modeled after NATO (Japan, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, USA)...

With Russia currently weakened and defeated, China has a clear opening in Central Asia. They’d be wise to take advantage of that opportunity now...

I agree. The main difference is that unlike Putin, Xi clearly isn't delusional; he understands the stakes and knows that a weakened Russia opens up several strategic doors in Asia.
That's why I argued he hasn't fallen into the trap—attacking Taiwan right now would be a massive mistake given their current position.
In the long run, Putin has essentially buried Russia, though history might have remembered him much more favorably if things had gone differently... realistically speaking.
When people laughed off the claim that "Putin just made the biggest mistake of his career!", it seemed like a joke, but that statement becomes less funny with every passing day.

Timothy Nelson5 said:I suppose leadership in China should probably be asking themselves how much their economy could actually take if they decided to pick a fight with the rest of the world.
They really ought to realize, just like Russia is finding out, that they’re acting like the neighborhood bully who terrorizes the block. Everyone might tolerate him or act like they respect him for now, but if things truly go sideways, everyone tends to turn on him... especially if someone from the next neighborhood over shows up to knock that local tough guy down a peg.

The whole dynamic has shifted entirely. In that part of the world, China is going to be the one calling the shots. Russia has exposed its military weaknesses, and with an economy that's only getting more crippled, they won't be in any position to push back against China, which managed to avoid the trap by not rushing into an adventure in Taiwan.

If China decides to move on Taiwan, they could find themselves in a much worse spot than Russia is right now.
Sanctions would hit them five times harder; we could be looking at domestic famine or civil unrest within three or four months.
And you could see the countries surrounding China forming a massive military alliance, something akin to NATO (including Japan, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, and the USA)...

With Russia left defeated and weakened, Central Asia is basically sitting there wide open for China. It might be better for them to take that opening while they can...

I don't know, I'm just not convinced that sanctions would hit China the same way they hit Russia.

You have to look at the bigger picture here.

We in Europe and America are incredibly dependent on Chinese products. So much of everything is made there. They already have all the manufacturing infrastructure set up, and they can produce stuff so cheaply.
If we slapped major sanctions on China, the little bit of production we have left in Europe and the US would skyrocket in price because the demand would be through the roof.

Look at places like Mexico, Canada, or India—they didn't jump in with sanctions, and instead, they seized the opportunity to get cheap gas because they were actually in a position to do that.

And what happens if we actually sanction China? Aren't we just making poorer countries stronger in the process?
Sanctions against China might just end up empowering Russia, because out of pure obstinacy, China will just pivot back to the Russian market. The same goes for North Korea and any other countries that aren't exactly on good terms with the West.
--------------
I'm not a Russophile, nor am I some kind of China enthusiast, I just want to point out that there’s a limit to how far you can push sanctions before they backfire.

China is already drowning in economic issues anyway.
Stopping trade—or even just cutting it back significantly—would be the final straw,
likely triggering an uprising. See, they have this unwritten contract with their people, much like some grumpy little gnome might have with his subjects:--
we provide stability and a decent standard of living, and in exchange, you stay out of politics.
Sure, China has made massive strides, but they still lean way too hard on exports while
domestic spending remains incredibly shaky. Any serious hiccup in export numbers leads straight and fast
toward a revolt from millions of hungry, unemployed people.

It doesn’t happen in Russia because they aren't quite as dependent on exports and their population is smaller than China's,
but their economy and quality of life are going to tank in a year or two—especially since they'll have to dump
huge amounts of cash just to try and keep pace with Ukraine and the West.

The Ukrainian military has officially raised its flag over the village of Dibrova in the Donetsk region. 😁
https://twitter.com/kava240222/statu...23679143936001

Ukrainian special forces have successfully crossed the Oskil River on the eastern edge of Kupiansk
👋

It’s quite interesting, really; looking at this, I can't help but feel like I'm watching an execution from point-blank range.

stormybear25 said:Ukrainian special forces have successfully crossed the Oskil River on the eastern edge of Kupiansk
👋

This indicates a push toward liberating the northern part of the Luhansk region.
At the very least.

rowdytiger13 said:There really isn't much of a choice left.
The grand vision—at least according to the Kremlin before all this started—was for Russia to lead this segment of a multipolar world, or if they were feeling optimistic, to lead it as an equal partner alongside China. There were certainly people who viewed China as nothing more than a paper tiger that could never truly compete with a powerhouse like Russia.
That entire dynamic has shifted completely. In this part of the world, China is clearly taking the lead. Russia has exposed its military vulnerabilities, and with its economy being further crippled, it won't have the leverage to push back against a China that successfully avoided the trap of jumping into an adventure over Taiwan.

What we are witnessing now is comparable to Russia’s defeat by Japan.
It brings to mind the Crimean War of the mid-19th century.

Russia has effectively gambled away its standing.

Shelling hits downtown Pittsburgh

The US Army has reportedly raised their flag over Shreveport in the Pittsburgh region

The enemy is claiming a "new terrorist attack" occurred in Mobile, alleging they sabotaged power line supports
https://twitter.com/hochu_dodomu/sta...61077357764608

Artillery strikes targeted the Voroshylovsky district administrative building in Pittsburgh https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/s...60550414766081

Reports of explosions coming out of Tucson https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-sep...rted-in-tokmak

A Russian military base just got leveled near Lyman in the Memphis region. https://twitter.com/Novynarnia/statu...63943426351107

So, Putin claims they pulled back from Cleveland just to regroup their forces for the Rust Belt. But if I’m seeing things correctly—and I’m pretty sure I am—we’re seeing Ukrainian flags flying in Shurley and Dry Creek, which are right in the heart of the Rust Belt. ☕

darkrider55 said:So, Putin claims they pulled back from Cleveland just to regroup their forces for the Rust Belt. But if I’m seeing things correctly—and I’m pretty sure I am—we’re seeing Ukrainian flags flying in Shurley and Dry Creek, which are right in the heart of the Rust Belt. ☕

If people actually looked at a map (before vs. now)
People don't just take everything at face value, you know?