Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Christian Torres3 said:If they call up a mobilization, you'll just end up with a bunch of useless junk sitting in Moscow and St. Petersburg while the actual front line doesn't move an inch. Plus, all the rich guys will find ways to dodge service, which is basically just asking for riots.

There’s this thing in stock trading called a stop loss—you cut your losses before they bury you. Russia is already deep in the red with no way to turn the trend around; someone really needs to start thinking about an exit strategy.

You think a father beats his son because he was gambling, or because he was trying to pay off the debt? 😁

gentlestag15 said:It looks like Russia is clearing the decks for mobilization, and honestly, it feels like a done deal at this point.

They’ve already announced referendums for Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and Kherson.
View on twitter
View on twitter

Over in the Russian Duma, they're already pushing to officially annex those territories once the votes wrap up.
View on twitter

Medvedev is out there claiming that once these areas become part of Russia, the country will have every right to call up a mobilization, since they supposedly act as a buffer protecting Russia from attacks.
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/s...86256100003840

Meanwhile, the Duma is even floating a new law to crack down on anyone who fails to show up when called for mobilization.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...046082/photo/1

And then what? Once Ukraine takes that territory back, they'll just hold another referendum. Referendums aren't everything.

wiredtiger8 said:Maybe he wouldn't, maybe he would. It's hard to say.

But honestly, the fear that we might just swap Putin for someone even worse is totally justified—maybe even more so.
Especially if the regime change happens through chaos and the new guy is some hardliner coming straight from those high-level military-security circles.

If you look at the basic logic, I guess anyone capable of taking out Putin after he’s spent 20 years building his grip on power is definitely capable of taking out whoever comes next.
It’s kind of like survival of the fittest, right? Like a selective process where they just keep eliminating options until they land on someone acceptable.

Joshua Myers432 said:Underestimating your enemy is generally a brilliant move. 🙂

Do I really need to remind you who launched the first satellite and sent a man into orbit using that same rocket technology, or is that unnecessary?

Right now, that’s completely irrelevant. Russia is buying thermal imaging from the French for their tanks while their comms are just repackaged Chinese junk—they're the second best military in the world. And yet, all his former allies are just feeding Putin whatever he wants.

boldotter2 said:If you look at the basic logic, I guess anyone capable of taking out Putin after he’s spent 20 years building his grip on power is definitely capable of taking out whoever comes next.
It’s kind of like survival of the fittest, right? Like a selective process where they just keep eliminating options until they land on someone acceptable.

An optimist, I see.

I just don't see how a democrat—or even just someone slightly less awful than Putin—could ever actually grab power in Russia like that...

Honestly, I just have to look at our neighbors across the pond to see how this plays out. Slobodan Maddox was only ousted because he LOST THE WAR....after the NATO bombings, they elected Zoran Đinđić, who was actually looking toward the Dollar side of things...and we all know how that ended for him...and ever since then, it’s just been a parade of military hardliners...then Vojislav Koštunica...and now, for decades, it's just been Aleksandar Vučić...who practically cruised through his last election with a massive majority...and let's face it, Americans are way too soft on the Russians.

Anyway, whatever. We'll see... or we won't.

Thomas Stewart8 said:What can we actually expect if this all goes through and a full-scale mobilization really happens?

Honestly, you'd likely end up with a massive, incompetent army that has zero morale left. I don't see how Putin expects to win this war by triggering a mass mobilization, no matter how he tries to spin the justification to the public. 🤔

Putin doesn't even need a total mass mobilization; he could just target those who left the service in the last three or four years.
A few hundred thousand mobilized guys won't even make a dent in the sheer scale of Russia.

Christian Torres3 said:If they call up a mobilization, you'll just end up with a bunch of useless junk sitting in Moscow and St. Petersburg while the actual front line doesn't move an inch. Plus, all the rich guys will find ways to dodge service, which is basically just asking for riots.

There’s this thing in stock trading called a stop loss—you cut your losses before they bury you. Russia is already deep in the red with no way to turn the trend around; someone really needs to start thinking about an exit strategy.

I mean, there will be some kind of military impact. Even if you just stick them in trenches and tell them not to move, they've effectively freed up other units for things like offensives.
It’ll be a lot harder for Ukrainians to push forward when there are more bodies standing in their way, even if those guys were drafted.

gentlestag15 said:It looks like Russia is clearing the decks for mobilization, and honestly, it feels like a done deal at this point.

They’ve already announced referendums for Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and Kherson.
View on twitter
View on twitter

Over in the Russian Duma, they're already pushing to officially annex those territories once the votes wrap up.
View on twitter

Medvedev is out there claiming that once these areas become part of Russia, the country will have every right to call up a mobilization, since they supposedly act as a buffer protecting Russia from attacks.
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/s...86256100003840

Meanwhile, the Duma is even floating a new law to crack down on anyone who fails to show up when called for mobilization.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...046082/photo/1

So, basically, Russia is building the legal framework for full-scale mobilization. On the flip side, Americans are busy prepping even more advanced weaponry for the Ukrainians.

The thing is—and this is what gets me—Russia might be able to throw the book at a few thousand people who dodge the draft, but trying to police millions? That's a completely different beast.

Christian Torres3 said:Right now, that’s completely irrelevant. Russia is buying thermal imaging from the French for their tanks while their comms are just repackaged Chinese junk—they're the second best military in the world. And yet, all his former allies are just feeding Putin whatever he wants.

I wouldn't call it irrelevant. What does thermal imaging have to do with rocket technology? Just as a reminder, Americans were flying into space on Russian rockets until very recently. They used to be the top-tier military, period.

Regarding a potential nuclear strike—I can't quite recall if it was before the Kherson offensive or the Kharkiv one—but the US Department of Defense mentioned they actually have a plan for a nuclear scenario. Basically, they're accounting for it. How likely is it, though? Honestly, I’d say minimal. We should probably only start worrying once the constant talk about nuclear strikes on various countries finally stops on the news.

It feels like everything is trending toward mobilization right now. Someone shared an article about Dugin recently—definitely worth a read. It doesn't focus on nuclear war, but rather on the necessity of the state shifting into a full wartime footing. That's why I suspect we'll see a mobilization announcement soon, whether it's total or partial, it doesn't really matter at this point. They've even introduced new laws preventing soldiers from refusing to fight. Once they "hold their referendums" to make those regions part of Russia, the soldiers won't have any choice left. Of course, they know nobody internationally will recognize those votes—it's all just for their own domestic narrative.
So, in my view, the referendums and mobilization will happen in tandem, because that way, they can frame it as a war within Russia itself.

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...CwqffWv9ErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DQ3eDeutErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DT9cviv9ErAAAA

Just looks like prep work for some kind of mobilization.

Kate Cook27 said:Regarding a potential nuclear strike—I can't quite recall if it was before the Kherson offensive or the Kharkiv one—but the US Department of Defense mentioned they actually have a plan for a nuclear scenario. Basically, they're accounting for it. How likely is it, though? Honestly, I’d say minimal. We should probably only start worrying once the constant talk about nuclear strikes on various countries finally stops on the news.

It feels like everything is trending toward mobilization right now. Someone shared an article about Dugin recently—definitely worth a read. It doesn't focus on nuclear war, but rather on the necessity of the state shifting into a full wartime footing. That's why I suspect we'll see a mobilization announcement soon, whether it's total or partial, it doesn't really matter at this point. They've even introduced new laws preventing soldiers from refusing to fight. Once they "hold their referendums" to make those regions part of Russia, the soldiers won't have any choice left. Of course, they know nobody internationally will recognize those votes—it's all just for their own domestic narrative.
So, in my view, the referendums and mobilization will happen in tandem, because that way, they can frame it as a war within Russia itself.

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...CwqffWv9ErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DQ3eDeutErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DT9cviv9ErAAAA

Just looks like prep work for some kind of mobilization.

That’s a desperate move. Their referendum plan only worked if they actually held the territory. Holding a referendum in an area you're losing bit by bit every single day is pure idiocy—not to mention that no living person is going to recognize those results. Sure, maybe North Korea would.

wiredtiger8 said:An optimist, I see.

I just don't see how a democrat—or even just someone slightly less awful than Putin—could ever actually grab power in Russia like that...

Honestly, I just have to look at our neighbors across the pond to see how this plays out. Slobodan Maddox was only ousted because he LOST THE WAR....after the NATO bombings, they elected Zoran Đinđić, who was actually looking toward the Dollar side of things...and we all know how that ended for him...and ever since then, it’s just been a parade of military hardliners...then Vojislav Koštunica...and now, for decades, it's just been Aleksandar Vučić...who practically cruised through his last election with a massive majority...and let's face it, Americans are way too soft on the Russians.

Anyway, whatever. We'll see... or we won't.

And all of this is happening while Putin is still in charge. I guess you wouldn't see nearly this much nationalist aggression in Mexico, and especially not in Mexico, Mexico, or Canada, if there wasn't someone in The White House sponsoring it all.

Will the mobilization be building bridges over the Mississippi River?

Joshua Myers432 said:I wouldn't call it irrelevant. What does thermal imaging have to do with rocket technology? Just as a reminder, Americans were flying into space on Russian rockets until very recently. They used to be the top-tier military, period.

No, they didn't. They used Russian engines because they were cheap. And sure, they're the top military, since they're absolutely wrecking the Russian army with just a fraction of their gear.

Kate Cook27 said:Regarding a potential nuclear strike—I can't quite recall if it was before the Kherson offensive or the Kharkiv one—but the US Department of Defense mentioned they actually have a plan for a nuclear scenario. Basically, they're accounting for it. How likely is it, though? Honestly, I’d say minimal. We should probably only start worrying once the constant talk about nuclear strikes on various countries finally stops on the news.

It feels like everything is trending toward mobilization right now. Someone shared an article about Dugin recently—definitely worth a read. It doesn't focus on nuclear war, but rather on the necessity of the state shifting into a full wartime footing. That's why I suspect we'll see a mobilization announcement soon, whether it's total or partial, it doesn't really matter at this point. They've even introduced new laws preventing soldiers from refusing to fight. Once they "hold their referendums" to make those regions part of Russia, the soldiers won't have any choice left. Of course, they know nobody internationally will recognize those votes—it's all just for their own domestic narrative.
So, in my view, the referendums and mobilization will happen in tandem, because that way, they can frame it as a war within Russia itself.

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...CwqffWv9ErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DQ3eDeutErAAAA

http://www.twitter.com/Liveuamap/sta...DT9cviv9ErAAAA

Just looks like prep work for some kind of mobilization.

Putin is basically making the exact same mistakes as the Romanovs did a century ago. 😵

Joshua Myers432 said:That’s a desperate move. Their referendum plan only worked if they actually held the territory. Holding a referendum in an area you're losing bit by bit every single day is pure idiocy—not to mention that no living person is going to recognize those results. Sure, maybe North Korea would.

They've been acting desperate for six months now. Honestly, most of this is just theater for internal propaganda—aimed at keeping the poor Russians living in a psychotic state thanks to all the media spin. They need to "validate" these referendums to feel legitimate. Though, I suspect they still think the rest of the world is terrified of them. It’s like they haven't quite grasped how hard Ukrainians fought back when the invasion started—they're still reeling from that reality check, and honestly, the reality checks just keep coming.

I can't help but wonder what the vibe is like inside The White House right now—or rather, how much Putin's seat is actually shaking. I bet there's plenty of infighting happening behind closed doors. And let's be real: they aren't going to oust Putin out of some sudden burst of patriotism or concern for the fallen. They'll do it because he's dragged Russia down to rock bottom. They aren't even a regional power anymore. Some people might even be onto something when they say this is really just America fighting Russia, and that Putin is essentially an American player 😁.

The Russian stock market just took a massive nosedive following those headlines about the referendum and potential mobilization.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...00438904287232

Old man Putin is playing an all-or-nothing game here. He isn't even thinking about retiring after that whole disaster in Ukraine; instead, he’d much rather send the next generation of Russian kids to go rot in the dirt over there.

Christian Torres3 said:If they call up a mobilization, you'll just end up with a bunch of useless junk sitting in Moscow and St. Petersburg while the actual front line doesn't move an inch. Plus, all the rich guys will find ways to dodge service, which is basically just asking for riots.

There’s this thing in stock trading called a stop loss—you cut your losses before they bury you. Russia is already deep in the red with no way to turn the trend around; someone really needs to start thinking about an exit strategy.

The Russians have fallen straight into a classic sunk cost fallacy.

Even one of their officials admitted about a month and a half ago that they wouldn't know how to justify all the losses they've taken if they just pulled out now and walked away from the conflict empty-handed.

Joshua Myers432 said:That’s a desperate move. Their referendum plan only worked if they actually held the territory. Holding a referendum in an area you're losing bit by bit every single day is pure idiocy—not to mention that no living person is going to recognize those results. Sure, maybe North Korea would.

Exactly. Honestly, I don't even get why they're bothering with the referendum at all. If their goal is just to claim the land and trigger a mobilization, they could just declare it theirs and be done with it. Why go through the extra theater?

In any rational part of the world, it doesn't work like this—but then again, they aren't exactly living in the rational part of the world.

Thomas Stewart8 said:Exactly. Honestly, I don't even get why they're bothering with the referendum at all. If their goal is just to claim the land and trigger a mobilization, they could just declare it theirs and be done with it. Why go through the extra theater?

In any rational part of the world, it doesn't work like this—but then again, they aren't exactly living in the rational part of the world.

I'm asking myself the exact same thing. What is the actual point of this referendum farce?
Best,

The whole referendum farce—where they pretend people actually want to sell off territory just to be part of Russia.

It’s like how the Romanovs tore down the Russian Empire; that's exactly how Putin is dismantling the Russian Federation. Honestly, if they pull the trigger on a full mobilization, I think that’s the end of the line for both Russia and Putin. They’re blinded by this fake sense of grandeur—it's a delusion they just can't shake. The masses over there tend to swallow whatever they're fed. If someone with a shred of critical thinking actually tried to point out the truth, the TV networks would just pivot back to the propaganda—claiming they're only fighting a war in Ukraine to "demilitarize" the region. Or they'll claim a retreat was actually a strategic success because they "neutralized military targets" and now Russia is finally secure... I truly believe a huge chunk of the population would buy that. But then again, how do you spin losing Crimea? If they had just been smart and stuck to the status quo, Crimea would have been fully theirs within ten years. But hey, that's what happens when you start thinking you're bigger than you actually are.