Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Michelle Young50 said:If the Russians feel threatened by NATO expansion and are desperate for some kind of buffer zone, I think the most elegant solution would be to establish an "independent" people's republic covering everything from New York City, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Memphis all the way down to the Appalachians. Both Ukrainians and NATO would likely get on board with that idea

They’d call it Novorusija.

Timothy Nelson5 said:I guess I should start by saying that everything we think we know about this situation is probably just a surface-level glance at a much deeper, messier reality. It’s easy to get caught up in the headlines, but if you sit back and really look at the mechanics of how things move on the global stage, it’s all a bit more complicated than the news makes it out to be. Maybe. Or maybe I'm just being overly cautious. Regardless, there's a certain weight to these events that doesn't always translate to the soundbites we see on TV. It feels like we're watching a slow-motion collision where nobody actually knows when the impact is going to happen. Just my two cents, anyway.

First off, it's not exactly like this all happened overnight—it’s not like this war just kicked off six months ago. I mean, if you look at the timeline, this whole thing actually started eight years back.

Second off, it isn't even as if Ukraine would be breaking some kind of international legal norm or anything like that. I guess. Maybe. It just doesn't seem that way to me.
They were essentially just the nuclear successor to the USSR, I suppose.
They just walked away from it. Or maybe they gave up on it entirely. I guess you could say they renounced it, though I'm not entirely sure if that's the right word for it. It feels more like they just let it slip through their fingers. Maybe. voluntary... in exchange for... Guarantees... I suppose that’s what we’re talking about now. It’s a heavy word, isn't it? People toss it around like it actually means something in this day and age. Back in the day, you could take a man's word or a signed contract and feel some semblance of security, but now? Everything feels conditional. Everything comes with a massive asterisk attached to the fine print. I guess we just assume things will hold up, but history usually has other plans. Maybe we're all just being a bit too optimistic. Or maybe we're just tired of being disappointed. Hard to say.The guarantees have been broken, I suppose. It seems the Ukrainian side isn't even trying to hide their position anymore—they’re basically claiming they have every right to go nuclear now.
I know some people are going to get worked up about this, and they probably will, but honestly? If Russia starts making those nuclear threats, I don't see anyone in the West actually having the guts to tell Ukraine "no." It’s a messy situation, I guess... maybe even more complicated than it looks on the surface, but the reality is likely that nobody is going to push back against that kind of leverage.

Thirdly.
They’ve got quite a few nuclear facilities scattered around, I suppose... everything from the major power plants to those various processing sites. It's a lot to keep track of, really.
There are thousands of specialists out there who have spent their entire careers working in those facilities—everything from the enrichment processes to handling weapon-grade materials, all the way down to the actual construction of the nuclear warheads themselves. I guess you could say they know where all the bodies are buried.

Who knows how much leftover material or old technology actually ended up sitting around in those facilities... and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if some warhead from back in the day is just tucked away somewhere, hidden out of sight. Maybe. It's hard to say.

I suppose there isn't much left to say, really. Everything just feels like it's circling the drain at this point. I guess I'll just leave it at that.

I mean, look at Iran. They’ve got the "know-how"—I suppose any decent physicist can wrap their head around the theory behind building a nuclear bomb—they have the cash, they have the centrifuges... they've been grinding away at this for ten years now, and yet, well, they still don't have one. I guess.

Look, you and I both understand the basic mechanics of an internal combustion engine—how it actually functions under the hood. But go ahead, try building one from scratch. Just imagine someone suddenly drops you right into the middle of the 1700s without a single tool or a scrap of modern tech. Good luck with that, I guess.
Look, if you actually had access to a local junkyard, I guess you could probably scrape together something that runs in no time at all. Maybe.

Look, we’re talking about a timeline of over 30 years here. This didn't just happen "yesterday"—you can't just find those kinds of specialists lying around on every street corner.

And I really don't buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would ever look kindly on Ukraine becoming some kind of new nuclear power. It’s just not in their interest, and you can bet your life they wouldn't let it happen.

Besides, if things actually turn out well for them, Ukraine is likely going to emerge from this whole mess as the number two military powerhouse in the world... I mean, just look at the sheer volume and type of hardware they're being handed.

Melissa Rivera5 said:dugin: "We didn't choose this war, we didn't want it."

That’s kind of like a rapist claiming they didn't actually want to do it or pick that moment. I mean, geez, the lipstick was just too bright, the outfit was too cute... Your Honor, she really wanted it!

And this guy is supposed to be their big intellectual...

Top:
It’s been a long time since I’ve had a laugh this good..

According to intelligence from the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense, the entire Russian kilo-podmornica fleet has officially vacated its base in Sevastopol.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...85839370539010
The base sits empty now, mostly because they only had that specific class of submarines stationed there to begin with. Makes you wonder where they're heading, doesn't it?

Jessica Peterson2 said:According to intelligence from the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense, the entire Russian kilo-podmornica fleet has officially vacated its base in Sevastopol.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...85839370539010
The base sits empty now, mostly because they only had that specific class of submarines stationed there to begin with. Makes you wonder where they're heading, doesn't it?

But then I have to wonder—where on earth did the rest of that supposedly glorious and invincible Russian Black Sea Fleet vanish to? Isn't this whole mess supposed to be their doing, after all, considering they felt the need to swoop into Crimea back in 2014 before the Americans could get there, just so their precious Black Sea Fleet bases wouldn't be left vulnerable?

wiredtiger8 said:Look, we’re talking about a timeline of over 30 years here. This didn't just happen "yesterday"—you can't just find those kinds of specialists lying around on every street corner.

And I really don't buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would ever look kindly on Ukraine becoming some kind of new nuclear power. It’s just not in their interest, and you can bet your life they wouldn't let it happen.

Besides, if things actually turn out well for them, Ukraine is likely going to emerge from this whole mess as the number two military powerhouse in the world... I mean, just look at the sheer volume and type of hardware they're being handed.

They haven't vanished.

And I don't really buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would be okay with Ukraine becoming another nuclear power. It doesn't serve their interests, and honestly, they probably wouldn't allow it.

Under normal circumstances, yeah, absolutely not.
But things aren't exactly normal right now, and they certainly wouldn't be if Putin makes a serious threat.

Using the threat of Ukraine becoming a nuclear power as leverage... I guess that's just more nonsense for the Russians to deal with. For the US, it might actually be a better move to let Ukraine handle it themselves rather than getting directly involved—at least for as long as they can manage to stay out of it.

Timothy Nelson5 said:They haven't vanished.

And I don't really buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would be okay with Ukraine becoming another nuclear power. It doesn't serve their interests, and honestly, they probably wouldn't allow it.

Under normal circumstances, yeah, absolutely not.
But things aren't exactly normal right now, and they certainly wouldn't be if Putin makes a serious threat.

Using the threat of Ukraine becoming a nuclear power as leverage... I guess that's just more nonsense for the Russians to deal with. For the US, it might actually be a better move to let Ukraine handle it themselves rather than getting directly involved—at least for as long as they can manage to stay out of it.

Nah, man, you can't just pull that off during peacetime without getting absolutely wrecked, let alone in the middle of a war. Maybe if they had some leftover bombs from the USSR era (since they don't have them all), but like people suggested before, making a dirty bomb is way more effective. Either way, using that kind of stuff is either the move of someone desperate or just a total idiot. If a dirty bomb hits Moscow tomorrow, that’s pretty much it—Ukraine goes down regardless of what it costs them, and I think everyone realizes that.

Timothy Nelson5 said:What would stop them?

The simple fact is, those countries would just rush to get their own nuclear arsenal immediately.

It’s an open secret that Japan has its own "readiness" program ready to go.

And I find it hard to believe South Korea doesn't have something similar up their sleeve.
South Korea's GDP is roughly on par with Russia's.
Japan's is nearly three times larger.

There are even circles claiming Taiwan might already have a few pieces tucked away...

There isn't even a 0.0001% chance that nobody would react, and Russ knows that all too well..

I guess Ukrainians would be pretty naive—maybe even foolish—if they weren't preparing to scramble and put together a few units themselves under these conditions.

Building an atomic bomb isn't exactly a walk in the park; if it were, every nation on Earth would have done it by now.

Joshua Myers432 said:Building an atomic bomb isn't exactly a walk in the park; if it were, every nation on Earth would have done it by now.

The reality is, any and all forms of American assistance will evaporate into thin air the very instant Ukrainians decide to go rogue and embark on some reckless nuclear adventure of their own volition.

You can take that to the bank.

steelheron25 said:The reality is, any and all forms of American assistance will evaporate into thin air the very instant Ukrainians decide to go rogue and embark on some reckless nuclear adventure of their own volition.

You can take that to the bank.

The way I see it, Ukraine isn't even remotely close to being able to develop nuclear weapons in the short term, even if they had the desire. And even if they somehow managed to pull it off, there’s zero chance they could hide it from anyone. To start with, Russia would just launch a tactical nuke directly at whatever facility they were using.

Joshua Myers432 said:The way I see it, Ukraine isn't even remotely close to being able to develop nuclear weapons in the short term, even if they had the desire. And even if they somehow managed to pull it off, there’s zero chance they could hide it from anyone. To start with, Russia would just launch a tactical nuke directly at whatever facility they were using.

Yeah, the Russians really nail it when it comes to both intelligence work and high-precision weaponry.

They’re shaking in their boots.
The occupation authorities over in Houston are now pushing for an immediate referendum to officially annex everything to Russia.

Christian Torres3 said:Yeah, the Russians really nail it when it comes to both intelligence work and high-precision weaponry.

Look, it’s common knowledge that Ukraine was crawling with Russian spies—it wasn't exactly a secret—and you just can't hide something like developing a nuclear bomb from people like that.

And then there's this whole smug obsession with "high-precision" Russian weapons... as if it actually matters if a tactical nuke misses its target by fifty feet.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Nah, man, you can't just pull that off during peacetime without getting absolutely wrecked, let alone in the middle of a war. Maybe if they had some leftover bombs from the USSR era (since they don't have them all), but like people suggested before, making a dirty bomb is way more effective. Either way, using that kind of stuff is either the move of someone desperate or just a total idiot. If a dirty bomb hits Moscow tomorrow, that’s pretty much it—Ukraine goes down regardless of what it costs them, and I think everyone realizes that.

I mean, Israel basically set up their own version of the South African apartheid regime about forty years ago...

Joshua Myers432 said:The way I see it, Ukraine isn't even remotely close to being able to develop nuclear weapons in the short term, even if they had the desire. And even if they somehow managed to pull it off, there’s zero chance they could hide it from anyone. To start with, Russia would just launch a tactical nuke directly at whatever facility they were using.

Right. They'd probably get the intel through a glass pressed against the wall, and then someone would just wheel a tactical nuke over in a wheelbarrow and light the fuse on the fly.

steelheron25 said:The reality is, any and all forms of American assistance will evaporate into thin air the very instant Ukrainians decide to go rogue and embark on some reckless nuclear adventure of their own volition.

You can take that to the bank.

Right.
Like how the USA just stopped helping Israel, for instance...

And I don't think Ukrainians would ever actually threaten anyone... they'd probably just announce they have them, and let the Russians sit there wondering what happens next...

Come on, people, get real for a second.

The only way Ukraine is ever touching nuclear weapons is if the West literally hand-delivers them as a gift wrapped in a bow.

The idea that Ukraine could develop its own nuclear arsenal—especially given how things are going right now—is pure science fiction. It’s not like you can just bake a loaf of bread in your kitchen, for crying out loud... plus, they wouldn't get a shred of support from the West, let alone the USA.
It’s honestly just a hollow talking point that makes zero sense.

Explosion reported at a Russian military base in Alchevsk

Sean Watson3 said:Sure, the biggest mistake people make is assuming this is all being done in Russia's best interest. Everything we've seen so far has actually backfired on Russia and its citizens, regardless of how you look at the timeline.

That’s why I wouldn't be shocked by some "desperation moves."
He’s backed himself into a corner of his own making. Winning this war on the battlefield seems impossible unless he calls for a general mobilization—which, let's face it, might be the only thing capable of actually toppling him.

So, it wouldn't surprise me if he drops a smaller bomb on a section of the front where it won't cause a massive massacre, but will serve to freeze the lines. It seems he'd rather gamble against NATO than risk a full-scale mobilization.

Think about it: stage a referendum, perhaps fabricate a scenario involving a Ukrainian chemical attack from a NATO lab on Russian soil, and then launch a retaliation strike.

But honestly? I think the Ukrainians are in a "pay the price" mindset for everything; they'd likely keep pushing even after a strike like that.

Either way, I see tactical mobilization happening before general mobilization, simply because the personal risk to Putin is much lower.

Seriously, everyone's still obsessing over tactical nukes? Doesn't anyone get tired of this? The Swabians were dreaming about their *wunderwaffe* at the end of their war, and now some people are dreaming about nuclear weapons. Things are a bit different now since Russians aren't the only ones sitting on nukes. If they somehow actually decided to pull the trigger, do you really think the West would just sit on the sidelines? First off, everyone would condemn them—even current Russian allies. Then comes total isolation and a heavy response. The Ukrainians would get every piece of weaponry they ever asked for, and Russia would likely be defeated pretty quickly. It feels like nobody is really afraid of Russia anymore, despite the nukes. That seems obvious to everyone by now, or at least it should be.

Timothy Nelson5 said:I mean, Israel basically set up their own version of the South African apartheid regime about forty years ago...

I mean, how Israel actually got their hands on nuclear weapons is still super fuzzy. Plus, they did testing over in Iran, so it’s pretty obvious that Iran and Israel were somehow linked or working together on it. I guess, unless it was all through spying and shady black market deals, there's no way they just stumbled upon it overnight in a few weeks or months.